I am looking forward to trade in June. I am having a spectacular year so far with my trading account up over 6 fold. May was not so great because I traded the S&P Futures with an almost perfect timing but I lost big time in my structural short oil position. This short oil position took almost all of my S&P profits. When we trade for a living its always disappointing not to win in a trading month.
I was a bit exasperated by being unable to make real money last month. But as I think through it, last month moves in oil and in the stock market pave the way for me to have the best month of the year in June. Off course that won`t be easy, because I had already 2 fantastic trading months in February and in April where I have doubled my trading account. So I am really raising the bar for the next few trading weeks.
What makes me so optimistic going forward? Well, we have oil and the stock market extremely overbought and disregarding underlying conditions. Some argue that the economy is fast recovering others argue that this rise is due to money printing and higher inflation expectations going forward. I disagree on both. The economy is still contracting and he had further evidence of that on Friday with a awful Chicago PMI indicator. Inflation cannot increase significantly with all this job losses and high unemployment because big inflation is only possible with wage inflation. Wages are going down and not up.
So, shorting oil, the stock market and risky assets are big trading opportunities going forward. Markets should be shorted when they look at their best. I will also make some intraday plays that I call "go with the institutional flow" kind of trades. I have a magnificent track record with this type of trades and I normally use the S&P Futures or some sector ETF`s.
I will leave you with some food for thought, "we are always one trade way from being millionaires and one trade way from going to the poorhouse." That is why we must withdraw half of the profits from our trading account whenever we have a big, stupendous gain.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
