Crude oil futures climbed back into positive territory Wednesday in Asia as regional share markets turned higher, although traders remained cautious ahead of weekly U.S. government data that could show fundamentals staying weak.
The federal Energy Information Administration is expected to post further increases in the country's crude and distillate stockpiles, potentially dousing hopes for an early recovery in demand.
Sentiment also remained under some pressure as oil and financial markets watched the global response to the swine flu outbreak from Mexico, amid concerns a pandemic may undermine prospects for an economic recovery.
"Swine flu is certainly one fact that's been a negative for the oil price because it's seen as potentially affecting international travel, and even travel within countries," said David Moore, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Despite this early 1 dollar rebound in Globex futures I think oil futures are shortable here. You will benefit from lower prices and be paid for waiting because of the contango.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 29, 2009
Apr 28, 2009
Hugh Hendry Video Interview on CNBC
Hugh Hendry is my favourite investor on CNBC. I always like to watch his videos, and he always has some good ideas.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Latest Hugh Hendry CNBC Interview
The recent rise in stocks and talk about green shoots in the markets are optimistic assumptions, as the world downturn "still has a way to run," Hugh Hendry, Chief Investment Officer at Eclectica, told CNBC Tuesday.
World gross domestic product looks overestimated, because global consumption has been based on debt, and this cannot continue, Hendry told "Squawk Box Europe."
"In the last five weeks we had a rally in risk. Big deal," he said.
"I am fearful of the surplus countries, like China and Germany. I think GDP has been overstated," Hendry added.
"My notion was, you had Bernie Madoff doing US GDP accounting." China "built capacity to serve a world that doesn't exist. We're drowning in capacity. The idea to propose we build more… that ain't a remedy," he explained.
Although companies' results beat forecasts, this is mainly because they marked their expectations too low, but their outlook is grim, according to Hendry.
"I believe the downturn in the global economy still has a way to run. We've only been given evidence of further deterioration," he said.
The rise in bond yields shows that the yield curve is flattening, pointing to more economic weakness ahead.
"What it reveals is that it's terrifying. This rise in bond yields shows… the private sector is countering the Fed and is tightening policy," Hendry said.
During the Great Depression, there had been rallies in the stock market, but stocks generally fell, Hendry reminded, explaining his bearish stance on stocks. He added that nobody can predict where the bottom was for the stock market.
"Monkeys spend all their time picking bottoms. I refuse to pick bottoms as I don't live in trees," he said.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
World gross domestic product looks overestimated, because global consumption has been based on debt, and this cannot continue, Hendry told "Squawk Box Europe."
"In the last five weeks we had a rally in risk. Big deal," he said.
"I am fearful of the surplus countries, like China and Germany. I think GDP has been overstated," Hendry added.
"My notion was, you had Bernie Madoff doing US GDP accounting." China "built capacity to serve a world that doesn't exist. We're drowning in capacity. The idea to propose we build more… that ain't a remedy," he explained.
Although companies' results beat forecasts, this is mainly because they marked their expectations too low, but their outlook is grim, according to Hendry.
"I believe the downturn in the global economy still has a way to run. We've only been given evidence of further deterioration," he said.
The rise in bond yields shows that the yield curve is flattening, pointing to more economic weakness ahead.
"What it reveals is that it's terrifying. This rise in bond yields shows… the private sector is countering the Fed and is tightening policy," Hendry said.
During the Great Depression, there had been rallies in the stock market, but stocks generally fell, Hendry reminded, explaining his bearish stance on stocks. He added that nobody can predict where the bottom was for the stock market.
"Monkeys spend all their time picking bottoms. I refuse to pick bottoms as I don't live in trees," he said.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Swine Flu Impacts Oil
Crude Oil Futures traded lower Tuesday amid concerns that the swine flu outbreak would curb oil demand.
Light, sweet crude for June delivery traded $1.25, or 2.5%, lower at $48.89 a barrel the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded $1.14 lower at $49.18 a barrel.
Commodities and equities are falling worldwide as investors prepare for the possibility that the swine flu outbreak will become serious enough to disrupt global economic activity.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Light, sweet crude for June delivery traded $1.25, or 2.5%, lower at $48.89 a barrel the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded $1.14 lower at $49.18 a barrel.
Commodities and equities are falling worldwide as investors prepare for the possibility that the swine flu outbreak will become serious enough to disrupt global economic activity.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 26, 2009
Oil Futures At a 2 Week High
Crude oil prices surged nearly 2 dollars a barrel in the last trading day of last week to settle at a 2 week high. Oil futures benefited from the strength in the stock market and the weak dollar.
Crude Oil Futures for June delivery on the NYMEX settled up 1.93 at 51.55 dollars a barrel, the highest level since April 9.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Crude Oil Futures for June delivery on the NYMEX settled up 1.93 at 51.55 dollars a barrel, the highest level since April 9.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 24, 2009
Trump Says Banks Are Not Lending
Regardless of who you are or how much money you have, banks are just not lending, says Donald Trump, Trump Organization chairman & president.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 23, 2009
Overbought or Oversold?
Are Oil and Natural Gas Futures overbought or oversold?
The green shading represents 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average. When the price moves above or below this green shading, the commodity is in extreme overbought or oversold territory.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
The green shading represents 2 standard deviations above and below the commodity's 50-day moving average. When the price moves above or below this green shading, the commodity is in extreme overbought or oversold territory.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Oil Demand at a 10 Year Low
Crude futures ended higher Wednesday, supported by equities even as a U.S. government report showed oil demand sinking and inventories increasing.
U.S. crude stockpiles, which were already at their highest point since September 1990, grew for a seventh consecutive week, as oil demand fell to a 10-year low, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.
Our opinion is that oil futures will trade in a trading range between 42 and 47 dollars.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
U.S. crude stockpiles, which were already at their highest point since September 1990, grew for a seventh consecutive week, as oil demand fell to a 10-year low, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.
Our opinion is that oil futures will trade in a trading range between 42 and 47 dollars.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 22, 2009
Very Good Article on Scaling In and Out of Positions
David Merkel wrote a very good article about the advantages of scaling in and out of positions. I like to trade that way and that the reason I highlight this article written on Seeking Alpha.
David Merkel, "The Wisdom of Half Positions"
This is my favourite part, "Scaling in and scaling out gives freedom to investors, and removing many of the psychological burdens that they bear. It doesn’t mean there won’t be losses. There will always be losses - but they will be easier to bear, with no panic that leads to selling off at the lows, or buying at the highs."
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
David Merkel, "The Wisdom of Half Positions"
This is my favourite part, "Scaling in and scaling out gives freedom to investors, and removing many of the psychological burdens that they bear. It doesn’t mean there won’t be losses. There will always be losses - but they will be easier to bear, with no panic that leads to selling off at the lows, or buying at the highs."
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Oil Inventories Out Today
Oil traded little changed before a report today forecast to show inventories in the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer, rose from their highest level since 1990 as the recession reduced demand.
Crude oil stockpiles probably rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended April 17 from 366.7 million the previous week.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Crude oil stockpiles probably rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended April 17 from 366.7 million the previous week.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 21, 2009
Oil Tumbles 9%
The price of oil plunged Monday as the dollar advanced, equities sold off and investors remained concerned about weak demand and rising inventories.
Crude prices tumbled four and a half dollars, or almost 9 percent, ending the session at 45.88 dollars a barrel.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Crude prices tumbled four and a half dollars, or almost 9 percent, ending the session at 45.88 dollars a barrel.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Meredith Whitney Says US Economy Needs Rebuild From the Ground Up
Meredith Whitney ultimately believes that the entire U.S. economy needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. Financial services were our greatest export, she said, and now we need to create something new for the world to buy. That process, she believes, will take several years.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Roubini Says, Its a Suckers Rally
Nouriel Roubini says that he is “still bearish” and that an economic recovery is going to take “longer than expected.”
Regarding earnings, he added that they will “surprise on the downside. Lots of banks, even the better ones, are going to be in trouble.”
“The current rally is a bear-market rally,” Roubini told reporters in Hing Kong. “I don’t expect a 50 percent adjustment that I expected two years ago, but this is a dead-cat bounce, sucker’s rally, whatever you want to call it.”
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Regarding earnings, he added that they will “surprise on the downside. Lots of banks, even the better ones, are going to be in trouble.”
“The current rally is a bear-market rally,” Roubini told reporters in Hing Kong. “I don’t expect a 50 percent adjustment that I expected two years ago, but this is a dead-cat bounce, sucker’s rally, whatever you want to call it.”
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 20, 2009
Angola`s Oil Output Above OPEC Quotas
Angola’s oil output was 1.6 million barrels a day last month, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, traders and producers. That is 103,000 barrels a day over their OPEC quota.
“It’s unlikely that you’ll get 100 percent compliance, given the lift we’ve seen in oil prices there is a greater incentive to cheat on those quotas.”
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
“It’s unlikely that you’ll get 100 percent compliance, given the lift we’ve seen in oil prices there is a greater incentive to cheat on those quotas.”
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 19, 2009
87% of S&P Stocks are Above its 50 Day Moving Average
87% of stocks in the S&P 500 are currently above their 50-days simple moving average, which is the highest reading over the last year.
The market is overbought and may correct at any time.
The market is overbought and may correct at any time.
Barton Biggs, S&P to 1100
Barton Biggs thinks the rally in the S&P still have some more legs to it, in his own words, “this could be a cyclical bull market that takes us to 1050 or 1100 on the S&P".
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 18, 2009
Opportunity in the Natural Gas Futures?
The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell 30 to 760 last week, the lowest level in more than six years, according to a report issued on Friday by oil services firm Baker Hughes Inc in Houston.
United States natural gas drilling rigs have been in a declining since peaking above 1,600 last September and now stand about 701 below the same week last year. This is the lowest level since March 2003, when there were 754 gas rigs operating. A huge rally in Natural Gas followed and Natural Gas went from 4 USD in 2003 to 16 USD at the end of 2005.
Traders and analysts have said tight credit and a 70 percent slide in gas prices over the last nine months forced many producers to scale back drilling operations.
Near record-high gas production last year and a deepening recession that sharply cut demand led to a severe oversupply that collapsed gas prices to below the 4 dollars per mmBtu level from their peak above 13 dollars in July.
With the natural gas drilling rig count falling at a record pace this year, most analysts expect year-on-year output declines soon, probably by summer.
Gas rigs are expected to decline another 10 percent or so this year before bottoming at about 700, a level that should turn output negative and help tighten the overall supply-demand balance.
The supply and demand imbalance might set up a good buying opportunity in Natural Gas. You can buy Natural Gas through the United States Natural Gas Fund with the ticker UNG, or buy directly Natural Gas Futures on Nymex.
The UNG ETF is down 68.5% in the last year and down 26% in the last 3 months. Might be a good time to play the rebound in this commodity.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
United States natural gas drilling rigs have been in a declining since peaking above 1,600 last September and now stand about 701 below the same week last year. This is the lowest level since March 2003, when there were 754 gas rigs operating. A huge rally in Natural Gas followed and Natural Gas went from 4 USD in 2003 to 16 USD at the end of 2005.
Traders and analysts have said tight credit and a 70 percent slide in gas prices over the last nine months forced many producers to scale back drilling operations.
Near record-high gas production last year and a deepening recession that sharply cut demand led to a severe oversupply that collapsed gas prices to below the 4 dollars per mmBtu level from their peak above 13 dollars in July.
With the natural gas drilling rig count falling at a record pace this year, most analysts expect year-on-year output declines soon, probably by summer.
Gas rigs are expected to decline another 10 percent or so this year before bottoming at about 700, a level that should turn output negative and help tighten the overall supply-demand balance.
The supply and demand imbalance might set up a good buying opportunity in Natural Gas. You can buy Natural Gas through the United States Natural Gas Fund with the ticker UNG, or buy directly Natural Gas Futures on Nymex.
The UNG ETF is down 68.5% in the last year and down 26% in the last 3 months. Might be a good time to play the rebound in this commodity.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 17, 2009
Oil: Biggest Weekly Decline Since February
Crude Oil Futures are set for the biggest weekly retracement in more than 8 weeks. U.S. crude-oil inventories rose 5.67 mln barrels to 366.7 million last week, the highest in 19 years.
U.S. fuel demand in the first quarter fell to the lowest for the period in 11 years, the American Petroleum Institute said in a monthly report yesterday.
Nymex crude oil futures are up 12 percent year to date.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
U.S. fuel demand in the first quarter fell to the lowest for the period in 11 years, the American Petroleum Institute said in a monthly report yesterday.
Nymex crude oil futures are up 12 percent year to date.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Nobel Prize Winner Stiglitz Criticizes Bank Rescues
Nobel Prize winner, Stiglitz had some harsh comments on the Administration:
“All the ingredients they have so far are weak, and there are several missing ingredients”
"The people who designed the plans are either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.”
“You’re really bailing out the shareholders and the bondholders”
Stiglitz joins his views with many other reputed economists and investors.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
“All the ingredients they have so far are weak, and there are several missing ingredients”
"The people who designed the plans are either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.”
“You’re really bailing out the shareholders and the bondholders”
Stiglitz joins his views with many other reputed economists and investors.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 16, 2009
Birinyi says Don`t Buy Stocks at these Levels
Buying stocks here is like crossing Fifth Avenue when the light is red,” Birinyi says. “You might make it, but the odds are not with you.”
“It’s time for a pullback,” Birinyi tells Bloomberg TV. “By almost every measure of an overbought market, it has done a remarkable job of trading through those measures.”
As a result, he says, “We’re looking for some consolidation. It can be a consolidation of time where the market just treads water for some time.”
“I would guess — and it’s only a guess — there will probably be a 5 to 10 percent pullback,” he says. “But again it could be a pullback in time, where we do nothing for a while and digest these gains.”
Lazlo Birinyi added, “I think the market has made a bottom. But in the markets of today where you have so much volatility, you have to be more sensitive to timing.”
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
“It’s time for a pullback,” Birinyi tells Bloomberg TV. “By almost every measure of an overbought market, it has done a remarkable job of trading through those measures.”
As a result, he says, “We’re looking for some consolidation. It can be a consolidation of time where the market just treads water for some time.”
“I would guess — and it’s only a guess — there will probably be a 5 to 10 percent pullback,” he says. “But again it could be a pullback in time, where we do nothing for a while and digest these gains.”
Lazlo Birinyi added, “I think the market has made a bottom. But in the markets of today where you have so much volatility, you have to be more sensitive to timing.”
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 15, 2009
Oil Inventories Out Today
Crude oil futures struggled to hold gains Wednesday in Asia ahead of U.S. government oil data that could show the country's crude stockpiles climbing further to multiyear highs.
The federal Energy Information Administration is expected to post a fifth straight weekly build in crude inventories. Sentiment turned cautious after the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a 6.5 million-barrel rise based on its own data.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
The federal Energy Information Administration is expected to post a fifth straight weekly build in crude inventories. Sentiment turned cautious after the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a 6.5 million-barrel rise based on its own data.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 14, 2009
Oil Down on IEA Demand Cut
Crude oil futures slid in Asia Tuesday as investors continued to digest an International Energy Agency downgrade to its 2009 global oil demand forecast.
Nymex crude settled 4.2% lower Monday after the IEA, an energy adviser to 28 industrialized nations, lowered its demand forecast by 1 million barrels a day and now expects the world will use about 83.4 million barrels daily in 2009.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Nymex crude settled 4.2% lower Monday after the IEA, an energy adviser to 28 industrialized nations, lowered its demand forecast by 1 million barrels a day and now expects the world will use about 83.4 million barrels daily in 2009.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 13, 2009
Abby Joseph Cohen: The US Stock Market Have Hit Bottom
The US stock market appears to have hit bottom and the nation's economy might see an upward shift in the latter half of the year, widely watched investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC.
“One thing to keep in mind is that we have undergone many months of very dramatic declines in earnings expectations, and also in revisions to the economic forecast by macro-forecasters,” said Cohen, president of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Institute.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
“One thing to keep in mind is that we have undergone many months of very dramatic declines in earnings expectations, and also in revisions to the economic forecast by macro-forecasters,” said Cohen, president of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Institute.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 9, 2009
There's no Way to Go Back to Where We Came From
As a result of the bursting of that theoretical bubble, Americans' lives have been inexorably changed and "there's no way to go back to where we came from," says George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management.
Americans were "living in a fool's paradise" based on the "false promise" of the "market magic," and the idea debt-fueled consumption was a sustainable and legitimate economic policy, George Soros said today.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Americans were "living in a fool's paradise" based on the "false promise" of the "market magic," and the idea debt-fueled consumption was a sustainable and legitimate economic policy, George Soros said today.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Meredith Whitney: The Star Analyst (April 2009)
I have found a very good article about Meredith Whitney in the Wall Street Journal. We normally track Meredith`s activity in the Oil Traders Blog. Here is the article, When Meredith Whitney Calls, Should You Listen?
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 8, 2009
Time To Short Oil?
Crude oil futures surged above $50 a barrel Wednesday as U.S oil inventories increased by less than expected.
Crude stockpiles rose by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, close to the average forecast of a 1.9 million-barrel build given by analysts in a Dow Jones survey.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery traded $1.50, or 3%, higher at $50.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after trading as high as $51.10 a barrel.
Probably it is a good time to sell short July`s Nymex Crude Oil Futures at these levels (55.88 USD) and benefit from a correction in the oil prices and contango. If crude oil rises less than 10% till June/July you will be in the money. It looks like a nice deal.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Crude stockpiles rose by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, close to the average forecast of a 1.9 million-barrel build given by analysts in a Dow Jones survey.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery traded $1.50, or 3%, higher at $50.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after trading as high as $51.10 a barrel.
Probably it is a good time to sell short July`s Nymex Crude Oil Futures at these levels (55.88 USD) and benefit from a correction in the oil prices and contango. If crude oil rises less than 10% till June/July you will be in the money. It looks like a nice deal.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 7, 2009
Soros, Faber say S&P 500 is Vulnerable
Two experienced investors I highly regard say that the US stock market is vulnerable at these levels. Soros goes even further and thinks this is only a bear market rally, because the US economy has not yet turned.
“It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around. This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.” GEORGE SOROS
Dr. Doom still sees some upside for stocks but underlines that a 10% correction is imminent. Marc Faber has been quite right in almost every market commentary he has made over the past few months. I mean he is on a hot streak.
In the midst of that impending correction he seems to favor banking stocks over commodity related producers that have already doubled or tripled.
“But I have been buying some banks here and there, for a trade. If I look at Citigroup, it dropped from 57 to 1 dollar. It is around 2.5 dollars now and can easily rebound to 5 dollars a share. If it will go down to zero after that its another story.
All I am saying is that these companies have been decimated and they can hand over they lousy assets to the government, to the taxpayer. And they stay with some viable businesses where they can increase fees and again cheat the taxpayer.” MARC FABER
But they both agree that the US stock market should not be bought here at these levels. I totally agree. I have posted in my desk one of my favoutite trading quotes of all time:
“There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play. I proved it.” JESSE LIVERMORE
This is no time to guess what the market will do next. It is time to sit and watch. A new opportunity will arise sooner or later.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
“It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around. This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.” GEORGE SOROS
Dr. Doom still sees some upside for stocks but underlines that a 10% correction is imminent. Marc Faber has been quite right in almost every market commentary he has made over the past few months. I mean he is on a hot streak.
In the midst of that impending correction he seems to favor banking stocks over commodity related producers that have already doubled or tripled.
“But I have been buying some banks here and there, for a trade. If I look at Citigroup, it dropped from 57 to 1 dollar. It is around 2.5 dollars now and can easily rebound to 5 dollars a share. If it will go down to zero after that its another story.
All I am saying is that these companies have been decimated and they can hand over they lousy assets to the government, to the taxpayer. And they stay with some viable businesses where they can increase fees and again cheat the taxpayer.” MARC FABER
But they both agree that the US stock market should not be bought here at these levels. I totally agree. I have posted in my desk one of my favoutite trading quotes of all time:
“There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play. I proved it.” JESSE LIVERMORE
This is no time to guess what the market will do next. It is time to sit and watch. A new opportunity will arise sooner or later.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
George Soros: This is a Bear Market Rally in Stocks
George Soros, the billionaire hedge- fund manager who made money last year while most peers suffered losses, said the four-week rally in U.S. stocks isn’t the start of a bull market because the economy is still shrinking.
“It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around. This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.”
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
“It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around. This isn’t a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.”
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Soros: The U.S. economy is in for a "Lasting Slowdown"
The U.S. economy is in for a "lasting slowdown" and could face a Japan-style period of relatively low growth coupled with high inflation, billionaire investor George Soros.
"I don't expect the U.S. economy to recover in the third or fourth quarter so I think we are in for a pretty lasting slowdown," Soros said, adding that in 2010 there might be "something" in terms of U.S. growth.
So George Soros is quite pessimistic on the US economic recovery.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
"I don't expect the U.S. economy to recover in the third or fourth quarter so I think we are in for a pretty lasting slowdown," Soros said, adding that in 2010 there might be "something" in terms of U.S. growth.
So George Soros is quite pessimistic on the US economic recovery.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Daniel Yergin says 40 USD a Barrel
- There is still a very large over capacity;
- Inventories are very high;
- This year world demand will be 83.5 millions barrel a day against 86 millions barrels a day 2 years ago;
- There will be a cap on oil prices
- The sense that the recovery will take longer than antecipated may create a 40 to 60 trading range;
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 5, 2009
Jim Cramer on USO
Jim Cramer argued against investing in the United States Oil Fund (USO). According to the digest at TheStreet.com:
"Cramer took aim at the United States Oil ETF in particular, calling the fund simply a travesty.
Cramer said the United States Oil Fund is not what it promises. The fund does not track the price of crude as it claims. Since the fund's [inception], crude oil has fallen 23%, yet the fund is down almost twice that at 54%. Just this year, oil is up 18%, but the United States Oil Fund is down 6%. This fund has nothing to do with oil at all, he said.
Cramer said the problem with the fund is that it doesn't buy oil, and instead buys oil futures. Since oil futures expire, the fund rolls over its contracts every month, incurring costs and expenses it'll never recover. Cramer said while the operations of the fund are legal, and listed in the [prospectus], investors need to steer clear at all costs."
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
"Cramer took aim at the United States Oil ETF in particular, calling the fund simply a travesty.
Cramer said the United States Oil Fund is not what it promises. The fund does not track the price of crude as it claims. Since the fund's [inception], crude oil has fallen 23%, yet the fund is down almost twice that at 54%. Just this year, oil is up 18%, but the United States Oil Fund is down 6%. This fund has nothing to do with oil at all, he said.
Cramer said the problem with the fund is that it doesn't buy oil, and instead buys oil futures. Since oil futures expire, the fund rolls over its contracts every month, incurring costs and expenses it'll never recover. Cramer said while the operations of the fund are legal, and listed in the [prospectus], investors need to steer clear at all costs."
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 4, 2009
The S&P 500 Has Now Been Up For 4 Straight Weeks
The S&P 500 has now been up for 4 straight weeks, registering a gain of 23.28%. Interestingly, the last time we had a 4-week winning streak that saw gains of at least 10% was 10/02-11/02, which was the start of the five year bull market that ran until 10/9/07.
Below we highlight all 4-week winning streaks of 10% or more for the S&P 500 going back to 1927. As shown, this is the 3rd strongest 4-week winning streak on record, and the strongest since April 1933.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Below we highlight all 4-week winning streaks of 10% or more for the S&P 500 going back to 1927. As shown, this is the 3rd strongest 4-week winning streak on record, and the strongest since April 1933.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 3, 2009
S&P 500 Volatility
Interesting article I have found on Bespoke,
In late 2008, the market experienced its most volatile 50-day period ever. At one point, the average daily move of the S&P 500 over the prior 50 days was +/-4%! While volatility is still very high, it has nearly been cut in half from its peak in late 2008. As shown below, the average daily change for the S&P 500 over the last 50 days has been +/-2.07%.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Apr 1, 2009
Crude Oil Falls After U.S. Inventories Climb to a 15-Year High
Crude Oil Falls After U.S. Inventories Climb to a 15-Year High .
Crude-oil inventories climbed 2.84 million barrels to 359.4 million in the week ended March 27, the highest since July 1993, the Energy Department said today. A 3-million-barrel increase was forecast, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline supplies rose by 2.23 million barrels to 216.8 million.
Word on The Trading Desks
“There are ample supplies of crude” said Mike Zarembski, senior commodity analyst at OptionsXpress Holdings Inc. in Chicago.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Crude-oil inventories climbed 2.84 million barrels to 359.4 million in the week ended March 27, the highest since July 1993, the Energy Department said today. A 3-million-barrel increase was forecast, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Gasoline supplies rose by 2.23 million barrels to 216.8 million.
Word on The Trading Desks
“There are ample supplies of crude” said Mike Zarembski, senior commodity analyst at OptionsXpress Holdings Inc. in Chicago.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Oil Down Before Inventories
Crude oil futures fell Wednesday in Asia as traders liquidated long positions on caution ahead of weekly U.S. government oil data expected to indicate that demand and supply fundamentals remain weak.
The federal Energy Information Administration will put out its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 1430 GMT.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
The federal Energy Information Administration will put out its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 1430 GMT.
Oil Traders Blog is a website for active online oil futures traders. We provide research and relevant oil and energy related news for the oil trader or daytrader.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)