With Friday’s continued drop in the S&P 500, the index has now fallen 75 points from peak to trough. This is the second largest pullback in terms of points and percentage retracement since the March 2009 rally began.
"Keep in mind that to match the 9.1% pullback of June-July 2009, the SPX would need to fall to 1045. The way the market is reacting negatively to what appears to be positive news, 1045 certainly cannot be ruled out." in VIX And More
Another interesting note is, the stocks that are down the most in this ongoing market correction are the ones that rallied the most in 2009:
"We broke the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks) based on stock performance in 2009 to see if the big winners from last year are the ones getting hit the hardest on the recent pullback. As shown below, they definitely are. The 50 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2009 have averaged a decline of 9.5% since 1/19. Each successive decile from best to worst in 2009 gets better in terms of performance since 1/19. The 50 worst performing S&P 500 stocks in 2009 are only down an average of 2.9% since 1/19. The winners during the bull run are being sold with authority." in BIG
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 30, 2010
Citigroup (C) Has Probably Bottomed.
In a very tough week for stocks, Citigroup (C) was able to buck the trend and rise 0.07 cents for the week, from 3.25 to 3.32. Citi traded as low as 3.15 mid-week and I think that was the bottom for this stock.
January was the worst month for the market since last February. Many market watchers believe January sets the tone for stocks for the rest of the year, and historical data backs that up. Since 1950, the S&P 500 Index full-year direction has matched its January performance more than 90 percent of the time, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
I closed half of my shorts on Friday`s closing bell. I am still bearish but a reaction will occur in the in the next few trading sessions.
I am going to cook Paella today. I have never tried it before but I have invited some friends for dinner and I chose this spanish specialty to serve today. I am going to stay awake to watch the Australian Open final between Roger Federer and Andy Murray. Go Roger!
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
January was the worst month for the market since last February. Many market watchers believe January sets the tone for stocks for the rest of the year, and historical data backs that up. Since 1950, the S&P 500 Index full-year direction has matched its January performance more than 90 percent of the time, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
I closed half of my shorts on Friday`s closing bell. I am still bearish but a reaction will occur in the in the next few trading sessions.
I am going to cook Paella today. I have never tried it before but I have invited some friends for dinner and I chose this spanish specialty to serve today. I am going to stay awake to watch the Australian Open final between Roger Federer and Andy Murray. Go Roger!
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 29, 2010
Western Refining (WNR) Was Hardly Hit. I Sense Opportunity.
Western Refining, Inc. (WNR) is one of the refiners that I have been accumulating over the last few weeks. I have traded in and out of the these names (Tesoro (TSO), Valero Energy (VLO), Frontier Oil (FTO) and Sunoco (SUN)) a few times and I am taking advantage of the recent weakness to add further to my holdings.
I am keeping my emini S&P 500 futures short line because I am expecting further weakness in the sessions ahead. I have no bias for today`s session.
I will leave you with a Thomas Jefferson`s quote, "I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." I feel the same way.
**Thomas Jefferson (April 13, 1743 – July 4, 1826) was the third President of the United States (1801–1809)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I am keeping my emini S&P 500 futures short line because I am expecting further weakness in the sessions ahead. I have no bias for today`s session.
I will leave you with a Thomas Jefferson`s quote, "I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." I feel the same way.
**Thomas Jefferson (April 13, 1743 – July 4, 1826) was the third President of the United States (1801–1809)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 28, 2010
More Downside To Come. Global Liquidity Tightning.
As I said in the last post I am expecting more downside in the stock market. Markets were extremely overbought and are now correcting. Another very bearish factor is the sudden and persistent dollar strength. I think the US dollar strength is revealing a tightning in global liquidity.
In this scenario commodity stocks will continue to suffer the most.
I will keep my S&P shorts because I think we will test 1,050 in a first move and then eventually 1,000 points.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
In this scenario commodity stocks will continue to suffer the most.
I will keep my S&P shorts because I think we will test 1,050 in a first move and then eventually 1,000 points.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Bearish On The Market. Stock Picking Will Be Key.
I found some very interesting bearish comments from Dr. Marc Faber on Business week:
“Financials have already been quite weak. It’s kind of a warning sign for the market. They may weaken further, especially the banks. Also commodities-related stocks could weaken somewhat as commodity prices ease.”
I agree with him, but I am not bearish on the banks and I think they will probably surprise on the upside. But I will not get involved because I see much better opportunities in small cap natural gas stocks like Delta Petroleum (DPTR), Compton Petroleum (CMZ) or Warren Resources, Inc. (WRES) and of course in the other names that I own like the refiners and japanese banks.
But I will certainly keep playing the short side of the market through emini S&P futures, as I am almost certain that the S&P 500 Index will test 1,000 points.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
“Financials have already been quite weak. It’s kind of a warning sign for the market. They may weaken further, especially the banks. Also commodities-related stocks could weaken somewhat as commodity prices ease.”
I agree with him, but I am not bearish on the banks and I think they will probably surprise on the upside. But I will not get involved because I see much better opportunities in small cap natural gas stocks like Delta Petroleum (DPTR), Compton Petroleum (CMZ) or Warren Resources, Inc. (WRES) and of course in the other names that I own like the refiners and japanese banks.
But I will certainly keep playing the short side of the market through emini S&P futures, as I am almost certain that the S&P 500 Index will test 1,000 points.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 27, 2010
Interesting Turnaround In Stocks. Added To The Refiners.
There was an interesting late turnaround in stocks. Shorts were squeezed today but I am not sure that the market will continue to rally. Anyway, I took advantage of the weakness in the refining sector and bought Tesoro (TSO), Western Refining (WNR), Sunoco (SUN), Frontier Oil (FTO) and Valero Energy (VLO).
The japanese banks also rallied and I am even more bullish on this group now. There is strong institutional interest in these names after Marc Faber and Byron Wien expressed their bullishness on japanese stocks. After a 20 year bear market there is tremendous value in several japanese names.
The only short position I am carrying now is Ford (F) but I could have chosen a better stock to short then F. Ford is still trading near its recent highs and today benefited from Toyota`s recalls and rallied again.
I will leave you with John Maynard Keynes`definition of sucessful investing, "Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others." I could not agree more.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
The japanese banks also rallied and I am even more bullish on this group now. There is strong institutional interest in these names after Marc Faber and Byron Wien expressed their bullishness on japanese stocks. After a 20 year bear market there is tremendous value in several japanese names.
The only short position I am carrying now is Ford (F) but I could have chosen a better stock to short then F. Ford is still trading near its recent highs and today benefited from Toyota`s recalls and rallied again.
I will leave you with John Maynard Keynes`definition of sucessful investing, "Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others." I could not agree more.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Down Markets On A Fed Day. Very Bearish.
The market is trading down on a Fed day is a very rare event. In my view its a very bearish signal.
Geithner is testifying on Capitol Hill and Obama will make his State Of The Union speech later today. It will be a volatile trading session for sure. Fasten your seat belts.
Refiners are trading sharply lower today and I will probably take advantage of it and add a bit to my holdings in Tesoro (TSO), Western Refining (WNR) and Frontier Oil (FTO).
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Geithner is testifying on Capitol Hill and Obama will make his State Of The Union speech later today. It will be a volatile trading session for sure. Fasten your seat belts.
Refiners are trading sharply lower today and I will probably take advantage of it and add a bit to my holdings in Tesoro (TSO), Western Refining (WNR) and Frontier Oil (FTO).
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Economic Forecasts And Fed Day.
To all the economic forecasters out there, here is a provocative thought from John Kenneth Galbraith:
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
John Kenneth Galbraith was an American economist, a Keynesian and an institutionalist. Among his most famous works was a popular trilogy on economics, American Capitalism (1952), The Affluent Society (1958), and The New Industrial State (1967).
Futures are flat but as I said yesterday I expect the S&P to rally 6 to 8 points till 2 pm. (Fed Day play)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."
John Kenneth Galbraith was an American economist, a Keynesian and an institutionalist. Among his most famous works was a popular trilogy on economics, American Capitalism (1952), The Affluent Society (1958), and The New Industrial State (1967).
Futures are flat but as I said yesterday I expect the S&P to rally 6 to 8 points till 2 pm. (Fed Day play)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 26, 2010
Delta Petroleum (DPTR): Another Bullish Move
I was expecting a confirmation rally today on Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares. After opening down 2 % the stock reversed and its trading up 5%. Natural gas small caps are the place to be and I expect these shares to trade much higher over the course of the next few weeks or months.
Refiners are also rallying in today`s session. Western Refining, Inc. (WNR) is trading up 2% and Valero Energy (VLO) is the strongest of the group surging 3%. If you haven`t read the last post, here is the link to the Fed Day play.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Refiners are also rallying in today`s session. Western Refining, Inc. (WNR) is trading up 2% and Valero Energy (VLO) is the strongest of the group surging 3%. If you haven`t read the last post, here is the link to the Fed Day play.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
The Fed Day Trade. The Easiest Trade That I Know Of.
I found this interesting passage on Bespoke`s blog about an important S&P 500 Index support level:
On a closing basis, the S&P 500 stopped going down right at the 1,091 level, which has acted as key support four times now since last November. Now that the index has found support in the short-term, traders will focus on the 50-day moving average as the next level of resistance, which is about 13 points above the index's current level.
I am playing some selected stocks that are uncorrelated with the major stock indexes but I may very well play the Fed day from today`s close to tomorrow`s mid session.
On Fed Day the market will probably be trading up 6 to 8 points pre FED statement at 2.15 pm as usual. The US market always trades up on Fed day with no exceptions, at least that I can recall.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
On a closing basis, the S&P 500 stopped going down right at the 1,091 level, which has acted as key support four times now since last November. Now that the index has found support in the short-term, traders will focus on the 50-day moving average as the next level of resistance, which is about 13 points above the index's current level.
I am playing some selected stocks that are uncorrelated with the major stock indexes but I may very well play the Fed day from today`s close to tomorrow`s mid session.
On Fed Day the market will probably be trading up 6 to 8 points pre FED statement at 2.15 pm as usual. The US market always trades up on Fed day with no exceptions, at least that I can recall.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Japanese Sovereign Debt Downgrade.
Nikkei 225 fell 187 points overnight after Japan’s sovereign credit rating outlook was lowered by Standard and Poor’s. This caused a correction in the japanese banks and I will take advantage of it to add further to my holdings:
"Japan’s sovereign credit rating outlook was lowered by Standard and Poor’s on concern Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s administration lacks a plan to rein in the world’s largest debt load.
“The policies of the new Democratic Party of Japan government point to a slower pace of fiscal consolidation than we had previously expected,” S&P said in a statement today. Japan’s rating could be lowered from the current AA, the third highest, if economic data “remain weak” and measures to buttress growth “are not forthcoming,” the company said."
Japan`s has the world’s largest debt load and they may have to print their way out of it. Nobody considers a possible inflation episode in Japan due to the deflationary forces that have been affecting their economy but I think that is a distinct possibility in the medium term. That would be very bullish for japanese stocks because the money would go out of the bond market and into the stock market.
Oil and S&P Futures are red this morning and it seems that we will extend this ongoing correction. I will keep an eye on Novagold (NG), Hecla Mining (HL) and some natural gas names to add to my holdings.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"Japan’s sovereign credit rating outlook was lowered by Standard and Poor’s on concern Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s administration lacks a plan to rein in the world’s largest debt load.
“The policies of the new Democratic Party of Japan government point to a slower pace of fiscal consolidation than we had previously expected,” S&P said in a statement today. Japan’s rating could be lowered from the current AA, the third highest, if economic data “remain weak” and measures to buttress growth “are not forthcoming,” the company said."
Japan`s has the world’s largest debt load and they may have to print their way out of it. Nobody considers a possible inflation episode in Japan due to the deflationary forces that have been affecting their economy but I think that is a distinct possibility in the medium term. That would be very bullish for japanese stocks because the money would go out of the bond market and into the stock market.
Oil and S&P Futures are red this morning and it seems that we will extend this ongoing correction. I will keep an eye on Novagold (NG), Hecla Mining (HL) and some natural gas names to add to my holdings.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 25, 2010
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Rallies 7%. Japanese Banks Continue Their Uptrend.
Today I will quote William J. O'Neil, "In bear markets, stocks usually open strong and close weak. In bull markets, they tend to open weak and close strong."
I was quite impressed with Delta Petroleum (DPTR) performance in today`s session. Delta rose 7.5% today on moderate volume. Now what we need is a follow through session to send DPTR to new highs for the move.
Markets are still volatile and I think further downside is likely.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (SMFJY), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU) and Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG) all rose today. I am very bullish on japanese banks and I will add to these names if they correct.
I will introduce you to Beach House, a very good alternative music band.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I was quite impressed with Delta Petroleum (DPTR) performance in today`s session. Delta rose 7.5% today on moderate volume. Now what we need is a follow through session to send DPTR to new highs for the move.
Markets are still volatile and I think further downside is likely.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (SMFJY), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU) and Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG) all rose today. I am very bullish on japanese banks and I will add to these names if they correct.
I will introduce you to Beach House, a very good alternative music band.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Markets Still Nervous. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Up 4%.
Markets are very volatile and are trading near their intraday lows. Interestingly enough Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is bucking the trend again is higher 4% on good volume.
I am very bullish on this stock and I think the worst may very well be over. But this is a very speculative stock, so I will need to watch it very carefully.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I am very bullish on this stock and I think the worst may very well be over. But this is a very speculative stock, so I will need to watch it very carefully.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
S&P 500 Index Goes From Overbought To Oversold In Just 3 Days.
It took only 3 days for the S&P 500 to move from 2 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average to 1 standard deviation below its 50-day moving average.
Image From: Bespoke Investment Group
The futures are pointing to a higher open so it seems that the mini panic is over for now.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Image From: Bespoke Investment Group
The futures are pointing to a higher open so it seems that the mini panic is over for now.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 23, 2010
Volatility Is Back. Markets Will Be Very Tradable In The Near Future.
The sell off was pretty sharp and some kind of rebound is to be expected on Monday or Tuesday.
I was looking into some of my favourites stocks and most of them have not corrected enough for me to get interested. There are some exceptions like Applied Materials (AMAT), Novagold (NG) and Citigroup (C).
There is much talk about Bernanke`s second term but I think that is media hype more then anything. Bernanke did a great job, and will certainly be reappointed. But if he isn`t or if that possibility becomes more real this sell off will send us much lower. So we will have to be very watchful next week to decide which way to play this market.
So, I closed most of my shorts except for Ford (F) and I am still carrying Tesoro (TSO), Western Refining (WNR), Valero Energy (VLO), Sunoco (SUN), Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and the japanese banks. I plan to add to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) and to Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) if they sell off on Nikkei`s monday trading session. I do not know if you noticed but the japanese banks ADR`s actually traded up in the last few days despite the big sell off.
I will cook an octopus later today as I will have some friends for dinner at my place. I chose the Octopus Lagareiro recipe:
Lagareiro is a style of cooking fish which has many variants but typically ends in dressing the fish generously with extra virgin olive oil (lagareiro is the owner of an olive oil press) after grilling or roasting.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I was looking into some of my favourites stocks and most of them have not corrected enough for me to get interested. There are some exceptions like Applied Materials (AMAT), Novagold (NG) and Citigroup (C).
There is much talk about Bernanke`s second term but I think that is media hype more then anything. Bernanke did a great job, and will certainly be reappointed. But if he isn`t or if that possibility becomes more real this sell off will send us much lower. So we will have to be very watchful next week to decide which way to play this market.
So, I closed most of my shorts except for Ford (F) and I am still carrying Tesoro (TSO), Western Refining (WNR), Valero Energy (VLO), Sunoco (SUN), Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and the japanese banks. I plan to add to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) and to Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) if they sell off on Nikkei`s monday trading session. I do not know if you noticed but the japanese banks ADR`s actually traded up in the last few days despite the big sell off.
I will cook an octopus later today as I will have some friends for dinner at my place. I chose the Octopus Lagareiro recipe:
Lagareiro is a style of cooking fish which has many variants but typically ends in dressing the fish generously with extra virgin olive oil (lagareiro is the owner of an olive oil press) after grilling or roasting.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 22, 2010
Good Trading Week But Not Perfect.
It was one of the best trading weeks in months for my trading but I am not completely pleased. I should have added further to my shorts and let them run a bit further. I suffer from the trader`s symptom, I want to sell the high and buy the low all the time.
But I am having a great start to the year and I made more money in these few weeks then I won in the last quarter.
I closed all my shorts except for Ford (F) because I expect Ford (F) to trade in the 7-8 dollar range soon. I am curious about the japanese banks reaction on Monday to this US sell off, because japanese banks rallied in the US session despite the carnage in the indexes.
Japanese banks are so depressed that I think there is almost no downside risk. They suffered a 20 year bear market plus a financial panic. They are still trading at October 2008 levels and near 10 or 20 year lows. Marc Faber considered Japanese Banks to be the best contrarian play of 2010. I totally agree.
I will leave with a provocative thought, "The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all." - J. Nehru.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
But I am having a great start to the year and I made more money in these few weeks then I won in the last quarter.
I closed all my shorts except for Ford (F) because I expect Ford (F) to trade in the 7-8 dollar range soon. I am curious about the japanese banks reaction on Monday to this US sell off, because japanese banks rallied in the US session despite the carnage in the indexes.
Japanese banks are so depressed that I think there is almost no downside risk. They suffered a 20 year bear market plus a financial panic. They are still trading at October 2008 levels and near 10 or 20 year lows. Marc Faber considered Japanese Banks to be the best contrarian play of 2010. I totally agree.
I will leave with a provocative thought, "The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all." - J. Nehru.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
The Bloodbath Seems To Be Over For Now.
After two and a half days of heavy selling markets reached an oversold status and are bouncing back. As I said, I closed my S&P Futures shorts on yesterday`s closing bell and my Goldman Sachs (GS) shorts after the open today. I am only carrying a very small short line on Ford (F).
On the long side, I am keeping my Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares (which are doing nothing today) and the refiners: Tesoro (TSO), Frontier Oil (FTO), Western Refining (WNR) and Valero Energy (VLO) plus the japanese banks that are doing remarkably well and managed to rally overnight even with a 300 points sell off in the Nikkei.
I am very busy trading, so I really have no time to right much more. I will make an oil update later today.
Have you visited Jose Gonzalez myspace? Pretty good sound.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
On the long side, I am keeping my Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares (which are doing nothing today) and the refiners: Tesoro (TSO), Frontier Oil (FTO), Western Refining (WNR) and Valero Energy (VLO) plus the japanese banks that are doing remarkably well and managed to rally overnight even with a 300 points sell off in the Nikkei.
I am very busy trading, so I really have no time to right much more. I will make an oil update later today.
Have you visited Jose Gonzalez myspace? Pretty good sound.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 21, 2010
Obama Triggers A Sell off. Closed My Shorts On The Extreme Weakness.
Obama`s vendetta on the banks triggered a major sell-off on Wall Street today.
I took advantage of the extreme weakness and I closed my short lines on the S&P Futures. I noticed that Google (GOOG) is trading lower in after hours so probably we are going to open even lower tomorrow. But I am very pleased with this short ride taht payed off very handsomely.
I am still holding to the refiners (Valero Energy (VLO), Sunoco (SUN), Frontier Oil (FTO), Western Refining (WNR) and Tesoro (TSO) and to Delta Petroleum (DPTR). Delta actually performed very well on a relative basis and I have the sense that it is being accumulated. I added to this position as I wrote in the earlier post.
I haven`t posted about my music preferences in a long time, so to the newcomers I will introduce my favourite music artist, Jose Gonzalez. Highly inspirational music.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I took advantage of the extreme weakness and I closed my short lines on the S&P Futures. I noticed that Google (GOOG) is trading lower in after hours so probably we are going to open even lower tomorrow. But I am very pleased with this short ride taht payed off very handsomely.
I am still holding to the refiners (Valero Energy (VLO), Sunoco (SUN), Frontier Oil (FTO), Western Refining (WNR) and Tesoro (TSO) and to Delta Petroleum (DPTR). Delta actually performed very well on a relative basis and I have the sense that it is being accumulated. I added to this position as I wrote in the earlier post.
I haven`t posted about my music preferences in a long time, so to the newcomers I will introduce my favourite music artist, Jose Gonzalez. Highly inspirational music.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Shows Strength. Buying More.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is performing very well again and has just made new intraday highs. After rising 10% on yesterday`s session its erasing earlier losses and reversing its intrday trend.
I think we will see a big upmove on Delta Petroleum (DPTR) in the near future. Jesse Livermore would say "The tape says moving higher. The reason may come later".
I am buying more shares and I expect to make a killing on this move. I will keep you posted on my ops.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I think we will see a big upmove on Delta Petroleum (DPTR) in the near future. Jesse Livermore would say "The tape says moving higher. The reason may come later".
I am buying more shares and I expect to make a killing on this move. I will keep you posted on my ops.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Doubled My Shorts On Obama "New Rules"
I doubled my S&P Futures shorts during Obama`s speech and also sold short Goldman Sachs (GS) stocks. If they cannot do any proprietary trading, their earnings power will be greatly diminished.
To busy to elaborate further. Keeping the refiners and Delta Petroleum (DPTR) on my portfolio.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
To busy to elaborate further. Keeping the refiners and Delta Petroleum (DPTR) on my portfolio.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Japanese Stocks Show Relative Strength. I Am Accumulating The Japanese Banks.
I will be adding to my japanese bank ADR`s. The japanese stock market is showing relative strength and was able to rally despite the Wall Street`s yesterday sell-off.
I bought some japanese banks a few weeks ago and after this small correction I am adding to my trading position. I am buying these ADR`s, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (SMFJY), Nomura Holdings, Inc. (ADR) (NMR.).
On the US, the Initial Claims were pretty weak and I think this stock market correction will keep on going. I may re-short again some S&P Futures if the market suddenly loses momentum.
Dennis Gartman was on CNBC earlier today and made some interesting comments. He is also bearish on the US stock market. (Dennis Gartman`s comments)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I bought some japanese banks a few weeks ago and after this small correction I am adding to my trading position. I am buying these ADR`s, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (SMFJY), Nomura Holdings, Inc. (ADR) (NMR.).
On the US, the Initial Claims were pretty weak and I think this stock market correction will keep on going. I may re-short again some S&P Futures if the market suddenly loses momentum.
Dennis Gartman was on CNBC earlier today and made some interesting comments. He is also bearish on the US stock market. (Dennis Gartman`s comments)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 20, 2010
Great Trading Day. Winning On My Shorts And On My Long Trading Positions.
My short positions on the S&P Futures did very well today. I was expecting this break and I was able to take advantage of it. I closed them and I will stay on the sidelines waiting for further evidence of price action either way.
I was really impressed with my stock holdings today. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) rose 10% while the general market was selling off pretty hard. That`s bullish. There is no other way to look at it. So, I did what I had to do being so sure that I was on the right side of the market, I added to my Delta Petroleum (DPTR) position, doubling the size of my holdings.
My other holdings in the refining space also rallied counter the general market. Western Refining (WNR) rose 3% and Tesoro (TSO), Sunoco (SUN), Valero Energy (VLO) and Frontier Oil (FTO) also performed pretty well. I am also adding to my positions in these names. (HMS 2010 Outlook)
I saw some pretty good matches on the Australian Open today. Del Potro went through to the 3rd round after a titanic battle against Blake. Cilic and Tomic also went to a 5th set on a epic match. I hope we will have a few more of those in the next days.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I was really impressed with my stock holdings today. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) rose 10% while the general market was selling off pretty hard. That`s bullish. There is no other way to look at it. So, I did what I had to do being so sure that I was on the right side of the market, I added to my Delta Petroleum (DPTR) position, doubling the size of my holdings.
My other holdings in the refining space also rallied counter the general market. Western Refining (WNR) rose 3% and Tesoro (TSO), Sunoco (SUN), Valero Energy (VLO) and Frontier Oil (FTO) also performed pretty well. I am also adding to my positions in these names. (HMS 2010 Outlook)
I saw some pretty good matches on the Australian Open today. Del Potro went through to the 3rd round after a titanic battle against Blake. Cilic and Tomic also went to a 5th set on a epic match. I hope we will have a few more of those in the next days.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Rising 10% On Big Volume
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is trading up nearly 10% on big volume. Its confirming my thesis from an earlier post.
I could not find any market moving news for this stock. As usual.
But I am holding some shares of DPTR and I think it can be a take over candidate.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I could not find any market moving news for this stock. As usual.
But I am holding some shares of DPTR and I think it can be a take over candidate.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Citigroup (C) And DC Gridlock
Yesterday I bought some Citigroup (C) on because of its strong intraday reversal in the early morning. I am bearish on the indexes and I am shorting again the S&P Futures but I think Citigroup (C) has been battered enough and is due for a rally. Anyway, I placed a selling stop on my Citi shares a few ticks below my entry price and I am basically riding a free position. If Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) results do not impress the Street my Citigroup (C) shares will be stopped out but I will probably do well in the short S&P Futures trading position.
Art Cashin said yesterday, "In the past, when you've gotten closer to gridlock, the markets had a kind of sigh of relief." Well, the Republicans won in Massachusets but the futures are trading lower this morning.
I am watching the Australian Open. Del Potro and James Blake are engaged in a 5 set battle. Great match.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Art Cashin said yesterday, "In the past, when you've gotten closer to gridlock, the markets had a kind of sigh of relief." Well, the Republicans won in Massachusets but the futures are trading lower this morning.
I am watching the Australian Open. Del Potro and James Blake are engaged in a 5 set battle. Great match.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 19, 2010
Natural Gas Small Cap Picks.
As you know, I am very bullish on Natural Gas and specially on small cap natural gas related stocks. I`ve elaborated on my reasons on earlier posts so I am not going to repeat myself again.
Here is a small list of highly speculative natural gas small caps that in my opinion can go up several fold over the course of this year:
Delta Petroleum (DPTR)
Gastar Exploration Limited (USA) (GST)
Warren Resources (WRES)
Approach Resources (AREX)
NGAS Resources (NGAS)
GeoMet (GMET)
FX Energy (FXEN)
SandRidge Resources (SD)
I haven`t bought any yet but I planning to buy in sell-off days in the general market.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Here is a small list of highly speculative natural gas small caps that in my opinion can go up several fold over the course of this year:
Delta Petroleum (DPTR)
Gastar Exploration Limited (USA) (GST)
Warren Resources (WRES)
Approach Resources (AREX)
NGAS Resources (NGAS)
GeoMet (GMET)
FX Energy (FXEN)
SandRidge Resources (SD)
I haven`t bought any yet but I planning to buy in sell-off days in the general market.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Earnings Season Will Dictate Action. Citigroup (C) Will Report In A Few Minutes.
Citigroup Inc. (C) will take center stage early Tuesday, to be followed later in the week by others including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS).
I am still short and bearish on Oil Futures and on the S&P Futures but I am not sure if we are going to have a correction or simply a price consolidation. So I need to analyse the market reaction to the news that might print to manage these short lines properly.
I have a list of small caps in the natural gas space that I will post later today. I will follow those names and buy them on further weakness.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I am still short and bearish on Oil Futures and on the S&P Futures but I am not sure if we are going to have a correction or simply a price consolidation. So I need to analyse the market reaction to the news that might print to manage these short lines properly.
I have a list of small caps in the natural gas space that I will post later today. I will follow those names and buy them on further weakness.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 18, 2010
US Markets Are Closed Today. Studying Small Caps In The Natural Gas Space.
The US markets will be closed today for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
I will take the day to do some research and prepare some business presentations.
I found this quote from Dr. Alexander Elder, "The market is not your mother." So, it won`t provide you with everything you need unconditionally. Elder has produced some of the very best trading quotes I came across over the years.
I will study some small cap natural gas related stocks today like NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS). I am looking for companies that can go up 5 or 6 fold like Rex Energy Corporation (REXX) did. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is also an obvious candidate.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I will take the day to do some research and prepare some business presentations.
I found this quote from Dr. Alexander Elder, "The market is not your mother." So, it won`t provide you with everything you need unconditionally. Elder has produced some of the very best trading quotes I came across over the years.
I will study some small cap natural gas related stocks today like NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS). I am looking for companies that can go up 5 or 6 fold like Rex Energy Corporation (REXX) did. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is also an obvious candidate.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 16, 2010
Delta Petroleum (DPTR): Big Volume On Up Days
As you know I have been in and out of Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares a few times. I am bullish on natural gas related names and wrote yesterday that "I am also looking to buy some natural gas related names like Delta Petroleum (DPTR), NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS) and Compton Petroleum Corporation (USA) (CMZ). I am very bullish on natural gas and I think it will be the energy of the future. But I prefer to play it through small cap stocks rather then through the commodity futures. Natural gas futures are already up a lot, they are incredibly volatile and there is always the contango to deal with."
I was looking at some price charts and I noticed that Delta Petroleum (DPTR) has been trading big volume on up days. That is very bullish in my view. I will tke advantage of this recent pullback to buy the shares back for another push higher. (click to enlarge the chart)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 15, 2010
Still Short S&P Futures And Oil. Sitting Tight On The Refiners.
My short S&P Futures position is now well in the money and my Oil shorts are profitable by more then 2 dollars per contract. This market has been very tricky to short and I am not sure if this correction will continue or not so I will be taking the pulse of the market in the next few trading sessions.
But I remain bullish on the refiners. I am holding Tesoro (TSO), Valero Energy (VLO), Frontier Oil (FTO), Western Refining (WNR) and Sunoco (SUN). They performed really well today despite the general softness of the market. I am expecting further gains in this group.
I am also looking to buy some natural gas related names like Delta Petroleum (DPTR), NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS) and Compton Petroleum Corporation (USA) (CMZ). I am very bullish on natural gas and I think it will be the energy of the future. But I prefer to play it through small cap stocks rather then through the commodity futures. Natural gas futures are already up a lot, they are incredibly volatile and there is always the contango to deal with.
Have a great weekend. Tomorrow is my wife`s birthday so we are going to party hard...
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
But I remain bullish on the refiners. I am holding Tesoro (TSO), Valero Energy (VLO), Frontier Oil (FTO), Western Refining (WNR) and Sunoco (SUN). They performed really well today despite the general softness of the market. I am expecting further gains in this group.
I am also looking to buy some natural gas related names like Delta Petroleum (DPTR), NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS) and Compton Petroleum Corporation (USA) (CMZ). I am very bullish on natural gas and I think it will be the energy of the future. But I prefer to play it through small cap stocks rather then through the commodity futures. Natural gas futures are already up a lot, they are incredibly volatile and there is always the contango to deal with.
Have a great weekend. Tomorrow is my wife`s birthday so we are going to party hard...
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Recommended Reading: Doug Casey`s Interview
If you think I am bearish, read Doug Casey`s interview. He says that he only wants to buy stocks again when dividend yields are in the 6 to 12% range and people have forgotten the market even exists.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 14, 2010
Oil Futures Update And A Good Quote.
While I was reading a good book and drinking a fine wine I came across this quote,
"I know at last what distinguishes man from animals; financial worries." - Romain Rolland
It seems that Intel (INTC) reversed again in after hours trading and is slightly up. Maybe JP Morgan (JPM) will set the tone for tomorrow`s session.
Oil market update:
Oil Futures prices closed lower Thursday for a 4th straight session, after disappointing U.S. jobs and retail data raised concerns about the health of the economic recovery. Light, sweet crude for February delivery settled 0.26, or 0.3%, lower at 79.39 dollars a barrel on the NYMEX. The U.S. Labor Department reported new jobless claims rose by 11,000 last week, higher than projections from economists for a decline of 4,000. However, continuing claims fell, signaling that job losses may be slowing. Meanwhile, December retail sales unexpectedly declined by 0.3%, the U.S. Commerce Department showed. Expectations were for a 0.5% increase.
Trading was volatile for much of the session, moving either side of unchanged after sharp losses this week from a 15-month settlement high of 82.75 dollars a barrel. On Wednesday, the EIA had reported hefty builds in oil, gasoline and distillate inventories that include diesel and heating oil.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"I know at last what distinguishes man from animals; financial worries." - Romain Rolland
It seems that Intel (INTC) reversed again in after hours trading and is slightly up. Maybe JP Morgan (JPM) will set the tone for tomorrow`s session.
Oil market update:
Oil Futures prices closed lower Thursday for a 4th straight session, after disappointing U.S. jobs and retail data raised concerns about the health of the economic recovery. Light, sweet crude for February delivery settled 0.26, or 0.3%, lower at 79.39 dollars a barrel on the NYMEX. The U.S. Labor Department reported new jobless claims rose by 11,000 last week, higher than projections from economists for a decline of 4,000. However, continuing claims fell, signaling that job losses may be slowing. Meanwhile, December retail sales unexpectedly declined by 0.3%, the U.S. Commerce Department showed. Expectations were for a 0.5% increase.
Trading was volatile for much of the session, moving either side of unchanged after sharp losses this week from a 15-month settlement high of 82.75 dollars a barrel. On Wednesday, the EIA had reported hefty builds in oil, gasoline and distillate inventories that include diesel and heating oil.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Natural Gas Small Caps And Refiners.
Despite my bearish stance on the S&P 500 and world stock markets in general I am bullish on specific sectors and some market niches.
I am bullish on refiners and I am holding Tesoro (TSO), Sunoco (SUN), Frontier Oil (FTO), Western Refining (WNR) and Valero Energy (VLO). Another group that I like are the japanese banks. Since Marc Faber picked the japanese banks as his 2010 top investment pick I got interested. I have small lines in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG) , Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) and Nomura (NMR).
I am also bullish on natural gas related because nat gas will be the energy of the future. I read today on Wall Street 24/7 that Boone Pickens was quitting his wind farm project because cheap natural gas makes the project uneconomic:
"This has already been delayed and rumored, but it appears that oil magnate T. Boone Pickens has given up on his northern Texas Pampa Wind Farm power project. The economics do not work. The deal had already been postponed as cheap natural gas makes the project inequitable and as credit conditions are still tight." in Wall Street 24/7
Some of the smaller names can have some big rallies. Of course, this small stocks like Delta Petroleum (DPTR), NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS), Royale Energy, Inc. (ROYL), offer great upside potential but also have some liquidity issues and dilution or bankrupcy cannot be ruled out. I am keeping an eye on these names. Add to the commenting section if you have more small cap natural gas stocks picks.
Intel (INTC) has reported very good numbers and has raised guidance but the stock is slightly down in after hours trading. Is the market ready for a correction?
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I am bullish on refiners and I am holding Tesoro (TSO), Sunoco (SUN), Frontier Oil (FTO), Western Refining (WNR) and Valero Energy (VLO). Another group that I like are the japanese banks. Since Marc Faber picked the japanese banks as his 2010 top investment pick I got interested. I have small lines in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG) , Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) and Nomura (NMR).
I am also bullish on natural gas related because nat gas will be the energy of the future. I read today on Wall Street 24/7 that Boone Pickens was quitting his wind farm project because cheap natural gas makes the project uneconomic:
"This has already been delayed and rumored, but it appears that oil magnate T. Boone Pickens has given up on his northern Texas Pampa Wind Farm power project. The economics do not work. The deal had already been postponed as cheap natural gas makes the project inequitable and as credit conditions are still tight." in Wall Street 24/7
Some of the smaller names can have some big rallies. Of course, this small stocks like Delta Petroleum (DPTR), NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS), Royale Energy, Inc. (ROYL), offer great upside potential but also have some liquidity issues and dilution or bankrupcy cannot be ruled out. I am keeping an eye on these names. Add to the commenting section if you have more small cap natural gas stocks picks.
Intel (INTC) has reported very good numbers and has raised guidance but the stock is slightly down in after hours trading. Is the market ready for a correction?
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Bearish On The S&P 500
Marc Faber, author of The Gloom, Boom And Doom Report is now bearish on the S&P 500,
"And I think this complacency and unanimous belief that we’ll still go higher now may lead actually right now to a more meaningful correction, and then later on in the year, maybe a rally, but maybe not to new highs. And that overall we could close the year lower than we are today."
I am also bearish on the US stock market and looking for an opportunity to open my short lines again. I am re-reading Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator because I always have my best trading periods after reading my Bible.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"And I think this complacency and unanimous belief that we’ll still go higher now may lead actually right now to a more meaningful correction, and then later on in the year, maybe a rally, but maybe not to new highs. And that overall we could close the year lower than we are today."
I am also bearish on the US stock market and looking for an opportunity to open my short lines again. I am re-reading Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator because I always have my best trading periods after reading my Bible.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 13, 2010
Buying Back The Refiners. Tesoro (TSO), Frontier Oil (FTO) and Western Refining (WNR)
I am taking advantage of this big 2 day pullback on the refiners ignited by Chevron`s profit warning to buy back Tesoro (TSO), Frontier Oil (FTO) and Western Refining (WNR). I may add to these names plus Sunoco (SUN) and Valero Energy (VLO) on further weakness.
As you know I am bullish on the refining stocks as I wrote in my 2010 Outlook,
Refiners (Valero Energy (VLO), Western Refining (WNR), Tesoro (TSO), Sunoco (SUN) and Frontier Oil (FTO)) will double or triple from current levels, even if they make new lows in early 2010; The downtrend from 2007 to date is nearly over;
I closed my short positions on Oil Futures and I am also closing my S&P Futures shorts and wait for some more downside volatility to put out the shorts again. No need to rush into things. Opportunities will come along. They always do.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
As you know I am bullish on the refining stocks as I wrote in my 2010 Outlook,
Refiners (Valero Energy (VLO), Western Refining (WNR), Tesoro (TSO), Sunoco (SUN) and Frontier Oil (FTO)) will double or triple from current levels, even if they make new lows in early 2010; The downtrend from 2007 to date is nearly over;
I closed my short positions on Oil Futures and I am also closing my S&P Futures shorts and wait for some more downside volatility to put out the shorts again. No need to rush into things. Opportunities will come along. They always do.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 12, 2010
Decent Sell Off In Oil Futures. Keeping My Shorts.
As you know I am short Crude Oil Futures, S&P Futures and Ford (F). I am in the money on the first two and still under water on Ford (F). I am not sure if this was the beginning of a more significant correction so I am not adding to my shorts, yet.
Marc Faber was on Bloomberg TV after the closing bell and he sounded pretty bearish on the S&P 500 and on the US stock market in general. That adds to my bearish conviction as I find Marc Faber`s comments on the market to be as good as any. Of course he is not always right, nobody is, but I can always find ways to make money out of his market calls.
Just for your information I sold my Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares that I was carrying from 1.10. It was a nice run and for the time being I do not want to hold any longs in my trading account. I may re-buy my DPTR shares if they show relative strength again. I will keep you posted on that.
If you are looking for stocks to short, here is a list of the most overbought stocks relative to its 50 days simple moving average.
Recommended Reading: China Accelerated Exit From Stimulus Signals Higher Rates, Yuan
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Marc Faber was on Bloomberg TV after the closing bell and he sounded pretty bearish on the S&P 500 and on the US stock market in general. That adds to my bearish conviction as I find Marc Faber`s comments on the market to be as good as any. Of course he is not always right, nobody is, but I can always find ways to make money out of his market calls.
Just for your information I sold my Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares that I was carrying from 1.10. It was a nice run and for the time being I do not want to hold any longs in my trading account. I may re-buy my DPTR shares if they show relative strength again. I will keep you posted on that.
If you are looking for stocks to short, here is a list of the most overbought stocks relative to its 50 days simple moving average.
Recommended Reading: China Accelerated Exit From Stimulus Signals Higher Rates, Yuan
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Great Peter Lynch Stock Market Quote
I found this fantastic Peter Lynch quote and I couldn`t help posting it right away:
"Your ultimate success or failure will depend on your ability to ignore the worries of the world long enough to allow your investments to succeed."
Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund. By the time Lynch resigned as a fund manager in 1990, the fund had grown to more than 14 billion dollars in assets with more than 1,000 individual stock positions. From 1977 until 1990, the Magellan fund averaged a 29.2% return.
PS: List Of Most Overbought Stocks
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"Your ultimate success or failure will depend on your ability to ignore the worries of the world long enough to allow your investments to succeed."
Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund. By the time Lynch resigned as a fund manager in 1990, the fund had grown to more than 14 billion dollars in assets with more than 1,000 individual stock positions. From 1977 until 1990, the Magellan fund averaged a 29.2% return.
PS: List Of Most Overbought Stocks
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
More On The Refiners
The 24/7 Wall Street website also has a post about the refiners related to the Chevron (CVX) profit warning:
"The notion that an integrated oil giant is issuing an earnings warning with oil above $80.00 per barrel may seem ludicrous to most on the street. Yet that is exactly what is happening at Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX). Chevron said that its earnings drop was due to further deterioration in its refining margins, but the issue is that this is not really new and is part of an ongoing theme we have seen in the industry. This will of course tie into Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and to ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) because of the refining and exploration and production, but the real issue is that this only further highlights some of the major refineries like Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), and may highlight some of the issues to a lesser degree also at Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO), and Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES)." 24/7 WallStreet
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"The notion that an integrated oil giant is issuing an earnings warning with oil above $80.00 per barrel may seem ludicrous to most on the street. Yet that is exactly what is happening at Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX). Chevron said that its earnings drop was due to further deterioration in its refining margins, but the issue is that this is not really new and is part of an ongoing theme we have seen in the industry. This will of course tie into Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and to ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) because of the refining and exploration and production, but the real issue is that this only further highlights some of the major refineries like Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), and may highlight some of the issues to a lesser degree also at Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO), and Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES)." 24/7 WallStreet
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Refiners Trading Lower On Chevron`s Warning. Tesoro, Valero Energy And Sunoco All Trading Lower
Chevron (CVX) warned yesterday that its fourth-quarter results would be "sharply lower" than the previous quarter because of further deterioration in oil refining margins.
This news send all major refiners lower: Tesoro (TSO) is down 3%, Valero Energy (VLO) is down 2% and Sunoco (SUN) is selling off 4%. I think this sell off can go on for a few more trading sessions but I am looking forward to play the refiners again in the near future. We had quite a run on these names in the last few weeks and we caught nearly all of the recent upmove.
The smaller names, Frontier Oil (FTO) and Western Refining (WNR) are also in the red this morning.
Today I am listening to a fantastic British Rock Band, Pete And The Pirates. Magnificent sound for a profitable session.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
This news send all major refiners lower: Tesoro (TSO) is down 3%, Valero Energy (VLO) is down 2% and Sunoco (SUN) is selling off 4%. I think this sell off can go on for a few more trading sessions but I am looking forward to play the refiners again in the near future. We had quite a run on these names in the last few weeks and we caught nearly all of the recent upmove.
The smaller names, Frontier Oil (FTO) and Western Refining (WNR) are also in the red this morning.
Today I am listening to a fantastic British Rock Band, Pete And The Pirates. Magnificent sound for a profitable session.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 11, 2010
Alcoa (AA) Disappoints. Earnings Season Starts With A Sell-Off?
We will have to wait for tomorrow to see if the market sells off on this Alcoa earnings release. Judging for the after hours reaction Alcoa shares may have a big drop tomorrow.
After Hours: Alcoa (AA) 16.53 -0.92 (-5.27%)
I have a small short position on the S&P Futures and I am waiting for a catalyst to send prices lower and to add to my short line. Maybe the lackluster Employment Report, Obama`s fee on financial services companies and the Alcoa (AA) earnings disappointment may trigger a sell off on a overbought market. Don`t forget that markets have been going up for 6 consecutive trading sessions.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
After Hours: Alcoa (AA) 16.53 -0.92 (-5.27%)
I have a small short position on the S&P Futures and I am waiting for a catalyst to send prices lower and to add to my short line. Maybe the lackluster Employment Report, Obama`s fee on financial services companies and the Alcoa (AA) earnings disappointment may trigger a sell off on a overbought market. Don`t forget that markets have been going up for 6 consecutive trading sessions.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
S&P 500 Up Five Sessions In A Row. Is A Correction Just Around The Corner?
The S&P 500 Index traded up in the last 5 trading sessions, making it 5 in 5 for 2010. Not even the jobs number disappointment last friday cooled the market. Today the dollar is selling off and markets will begin the trading session in the green, but a correction is certainly just around the corner:
"The S&P 500 closed up every trading day this week, which also means we have started 2010 up five days in a row. Since the S&P 500 started back in 1927, there have only been three other years where the index closed up five days in a row to start the year -- 1967, 1987, and 2006. In 1967 and 2006, the winning streak ended at 5 days, while in 1987 it ended after 7 days." in Bespoke
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) was trading up nearly 4% in pre-market. Its almost making new highs for the move so I will watch its action around this breakout level carefully. I am carrying my line from 1.10 so I am want to protect my profits if things suddenly reverse.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"The S&P 500 closed up every trading day this week, which also means we have started 2010 up five days in a row. Since the S&P 500 started back in 1927, there have only been three other years where the index closed up five days in a row to start the year -- 1967, 1987, and 2006. In 1967 and 2006, the winning streak ended at 5 days, while in 1987 it ended after 7 days." in Bespoke
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) was trading up nearly 4% in pre-market. Its almost making new highs for the move so I will watch its action around this breakout level carefully. I am carrying my line from 1.10 so I am want to protect my profits if things suddenly reverse.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 9, 2010
How To Buy Stocks. A 359 USD Wine Bottle.
This is one of my favourite trading quotes,
"When a falling stock becomes a screaming buy because it cannot conceivably drop further, try to buy it thirty percent lower." - Al Rizzo
This is one of the best market observations I`ve read. I think its one of those market reflections that can only come out of a experienced market speculator.
I tried a short position on Friday after the jobs report but markets reversed and ended the session a little higher. I think the move wasn`t very conclusive. I thought that the jobs number disappointment would trigger a down day. It didn`t. But I am not convinced that markets will not trade much higher from these levels so I am going to give these short lines a little more room. Then, when I have the conviction that I am right, and only then, I will add further and open a meaningful short position. Regarding my stocks, I sold the refiners and I am only holding Delta Petroleum (DPTR). Its behaving like a stock that being bought on balance and I am still expecting higher prices.
I bought a fantastic bottle of wine today. I am going to drink a Château Latour, Pauillac 98. Ita a 359.00 dollars bottle but I am feeling well today and I want to drink something special. These were the winemaker's notes: "One of Bordeaux's most concentrated, rich and full-bodied wines. Latour is dark ruby in color and has a unique bouquet of fresh walnuts, leather, and black currants."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"When a falling stock becomes a screaming buy because it cannot conceivably drop further, try to buy it thirty percent lower." - Al Rizzo
This is one of the best market observations I`ve read. I think its one of those market reflections that can only come out of a experienced market speculator.
I tried a short position on Friday after the jobs report but markets reversed and ended the session a little higher. I think the move wasn`t very conclusive. I thought that the jobs number disappointment would trigger a down day. It didn`t. But I am not convinced that markets will not trade much higher from these levels so I am going to give these short lines a little more room. Then, when I have the conviction that I am right, and only then, I will add further and open a meaningful short position. Regarding my stocks, I sold the refiners and I am only holding Delta Petroleum (DPTR). Its behaving like a stock that being bought on balance and I am still expecting higher prices.
I bought a fantastic bottle of wine today. I am going to drink a Château Latour, Pauillac 98. Ita a 359.00 dollars bottle but I am feeling well today and I want to drink something special. These were the winemaker's notes: "One of Bordeaux's most concentrated, rich and full-bodied wines. Latour is dark ruby in color and has a unique bouquet of fresh walnuts, leather, and black currants."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 8, 2010
Jobs Report Disappoints. Selling Short S&P 500 Futures And Oil.
The US economy lost 85,000 jobs in December disappointing Wall Street analysts that were expecting a positive number.
I am closing all my longs except for Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and beginning an intermediate term short raid on S&P 500 Futures and on Crude Oil Futures. Markets are overbought and this report may be the beginning of a reversal in market sentiment.
Recommended Reading: Jim Chanos: China Is Heading For A Crash
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I am closing all my longs except for Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and beginning an intermediate term short raid on S&P 500 Futures and on Crude Oil Futures. Markets are overbought and this report may be the beginning of a reversal in market sentiment.
Recommended Reading: Jim Chanos: China Is Heading For A Crash
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 7, 2010
All Eyes On The Employment Report
I am at a dinner party tonight so I cannot write much from my mobile.
I will only post a very good trading quote from Dr. Alexander Elder, "The markets are unforgiving, and emotional trading always results in losses." So be patient, selective and detached on your trading. Your P&L will certainly improve.
Don`t forget we have the Employment Report tomorrow. The consensus is for a small jobs gain.
I will be early on my trading desk tomorrow.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I will only post a very good trading quote from Dr. Alexander Elder, "The markets are unforgiving, and emotional trading always results in losses." So be patient, selective and detached on your trading. Your P&L will certainly improve.
Don`t forget we have the Employment Report tomorrow. The consensus is for a small jobs gain.
I will be early on my trading desk tomorrow.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 6, 2010
Missed Opportunity. Preparing A Bear Raid.
The japanese banks rally today caught my attention. I wish I had bought them a few trading sessions ago when I spotted the opportunity (Japanese Banks: The Best Play In 2010). But I really cannot complain as I had a magnificent beginning to this new year riding the refiners and Delta Petroleum (DPTR) higher.
Anyway, I am planning to drop all my positions and prepare another bear ride (not sure yet if I will short the S&P Futures, Dax Futures or Crude Oil). I will wait for the right time to sell short and till then I will patiently wait sitting on profits.
While surfing the web, I found some very interesting research on the S&P 500 at Trading The Odds website. I don`t know who runs the site, but I found the S&P 500 research as good as anything I had seen before. I already had most of the results from my own research but I found some good new stuff. Definitely deserves a visit.
I haven`t written much about oil lately but I am getting very bearish on oil. I agree with what Dr. Marc Faber wrote in his Gloom, Boom and Doom report. He is not sure if commodities will be hard hit by a US dollar rally and he thinks that demand and supply will be the real drivers of oil prices in 2010. More on this tomorrow.
Today I will quote John Maynard Keynes, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." So be careful.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Anyway, I am planning to drop all my positions and prepare another bear ride (not sure yet if I will short the S&P Futures, Dax Futures or Crude Oil). I will wait for the right time to sell short and till then I will patiently wait sitting on profits.
While surfing the web, I found some very interesting research on the S&P 500 at Trading The Odds website. I don`t know who runs the site, but I found the S&P 500 research as good as anything I had seen before. I already had most of the results from my own research but I found some good new stuff. Definitely deserves a visit.
I haven`t written much about oil lately but I am getting very bearish on oil. I agree with what Dr. Marc Faber wrote in his Gloom, Boom and Doom report. He is not sure if commodities will be hard hit by a US dollar rally and he thinks that demand and supply will be the real drivers of oil prices in 2010. More on this tomorrow.
Today I will quote John Maynard Keynes, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." So be careful.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 5, 2010
Sitting Tight On Delta Petroleum (DPTR)
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) rallied nicely again, surging more then 7 percent. After yesterday`s 30% rise we now have a 40% rally in two days. But I am sitting tight on my shares and I expect higher prices. Natural gas assets are in high demand and I think Delta can easily go to 3 dollars a share very soon. I am hoping for the best but ready to run if conditions suddendly reverse.
I have a small short position on Ford (F) and I will take advantage of this recent rally to add to my shorts. I am very bearish on Ford (F) and I am with Jim Chanos on this trade. I am doubling my short line on Ford (F) and leave a few bullets on the sideline to triple the position if the rally keeps on going.
My refiners were strong again today and Western Refining (WNR) was the best of the group gaining more then 3%.
What about this provocative thought from Mark Twain, "There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate; when he can't afford it, and when he can"...
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I have a small short position on Ford (F) and I will take advantage of this recent rally to add to my shorts. I am very bearish on Ford (F) and I am with Jim Chanos on this trade. I am doubling my short line on Ford (F) and leave a few bullets on the sideline to triple the position if the rally keeps on going.
My refiners were strong again today and Western Refining (WNR) was the best of the group gaining more then 3%.
What about this provocative thought from Mark Twain, "There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate; when he can't afford it, and when he can"...
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 4, 2010
I Could Not Ask For A Better Start To 2010. Refiners Rally Over 6%, Delta Petroleum Rises 30%.
What an extraordinary start to the year. I could not ask for more. My refiners rallied nicely, Sunoco (SUN) up 6%, Valero Energy (VLO) up 7%, Tesoro (TSO) up 9%, Frontier Oil (FTO) up 8% and even the crippled Western Refining (WNR) managed to surge 13%.
But the cherry on top was my play on Delta Petroleum (DPTR). After taking notice of the deal between Total and Chesapeake Energy I bought DPTR on pre-market when it was already rallying 6 or 7%. I bought and the stock rallied all the way to the closing bell surging 30%. This will be a day to remember...
A few weeks ago when Exxon Mobil (XOM) bought XTO Energy (another natural gas player), Delta Petroleum (DPTR) had a similar move. I had to act on the news.
I did not sell any of my stock holdings but we have to be flexible and quick to act when dealing with these volatile stocks. So far, so good. They are all well in the money.
I will leave you with the road test of the 458 Italia Ferrari. A masterpiece.
Read Blackstone`s Byron Wien thoughts on the S&P 500 for 2010: Byron Wien: The S&P 500 Will End 2010 Unchanged
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
But the cherry on top was my play on Delta Petroleum (DPTR). After taking notice of the deal between Total and Chesapeake Energy I bought DPTR on pre-market when it was already rallying 6 or 7%. I bought and the stock rallied all the way to the closing bell surging 30%. This will be a day to remember...
A few weeks ago when Exxon Mobil (XOM) bought XTO Energy (another natural gas player), Delta Petroleum (DPTR) had a similar move. I had to act on the news.
I did not sell any of my stock holdings but we have to be flexible and quick to act when dealing with these volatile stocks. So far, so good. They are all well in the money.
I will leave you with the road test of the 458 Italia Ferrari. A masterpiece.
Read Blackstone`s Byron Wien thoughts on the S&P 500 for 2010: Byron Wien: The S&P 500 Will End 2010 Unchanged
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Buying Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Again. Refiners Doing Great.
What a nice start to the year. My refiners are rallying responding to the Deustche Bank upgrade. Frontier Oil (FTO) is rallying over 7% and I think it may very well be a take over candidate. My other holdings in this sector, Western Refining (WNR), Sunoco (SUN), Valero Energy (VLO) and Tesoro (TSO) are all rallying over 3%. I had written in my 2010 Investment Outlook that this would be the year to play the refiners. But I wasn`t expecting to be proven right so early...
I am buying Delta Petroleum (DPTR) again. There are several deals going on the natural gas space and Delta will benefit grom this merger and buyouts activity.
"After the XTO Energy buyout from Exxon Mobil, there is another big natural gas deal announced today. France's Total signed a 2.25 billion dollars tie-up with Chesapeake Energy (CHK) becoming the latest international oil major to take advantage of low gas prices to snap up shale gas assets." in Decoding Wall Street
Of course this a very dangerous and volatile stock so we need to play it carefully. I bought my shares in pre-market trading at 1.10 and its already trading above 1.20. With such a profit cushion I may be able to double up before the close.
After being stopped a few months ago, I am trying again and this time I feel I am dead right. Time will tell.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I am buying Delta Petroleum (DPTR) again. There are several deals going on the natural gas space and Delta will benefit grom this merger and buyouts activity.
"After the XTO Energy buyout from Exxon Mobil, there is another big natural gas deal announced today. France's Total signed a 2.25 billion dollars tie-up with Chesapeake Energy (CHK) becoming the latest international oil major to take advantage of low gas prices to snap up shale gas assets." in Decoding Wall Street
Of course this a very dangerous and volatile stock so we need to play it carefully. I bought my shares in pre-market trading at 1.10 and its already trading above 1.20. With such a profit cushion I may be able to double up before the close.
After being stopped a few months ago, I am trying again and this time I feel I am dead right. Time will tell.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jan 3, 2010
Patience And Aggressiveness. That Is How I Will Trade This Year.
One of my trading resolutions for next year is to trade less, wait for panic buying or panic selling to set in and then go the other way. I plan to be very agressive in these trades. I will play the markets like a professional poker player (old style). I mean, not playing every hand and stay through every card, but playing only the percentage hands. I will play the good hands and drop out the poor hands. But when the opportunity arises I will raise and play that hand to the hilt.
So patience and aggressiveness at the right time will be the name of the game this year. Patience to wait for others to panic, patience to wait for irrational and persistent buying and then go the other way. I took these 4 days to re-read Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator because I always had my best trading sequences after reading my favourite book. Its inspiring and makes be think of the speculative game through Jesse`s lenses.
I will end today`s post with a magnificent William J. O'Neil trading quote, "In bear markets, stocks usually open strong and close weak. In bull markets, they tend to open weak and close strong."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
So patience and aggressiveness at the right time will be the name of the game this year. Patience to wait for others to panic, patience to wait for irrational and persistent buying and then go the other way. I took these 4 days to re-read Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator because I always had my best trading sequences after reading my favourite book. Its inspiring and makes be think of the speculative game through Jesse`s lenses.
I will end today`s post with a magnificent William J. O'Neil trading quote, "In bear markets, stocks usually open strong and close weak. In bull markets, they tend to open weak and close strong."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
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