UBS were the first to react to SandRidge Energy (SD) earnings, reiterating their buy rating:
"UBS analysts are reiterating their "buy" rating for SandRidge Energy (NYSE:SD) and reducing their price target to $12, from $14, after a disappointing end to a difficult year for the company.
Analysts William A. Featherston said, "SD trimmed its 2010 production guidance to the low-end of previous guidance of 130-135 Bcfe, while still keeping its capex budget unchanged at $860 million. We now forecast 2010 production to grow 24% and 15% in 2012. We've cut our 2010-11 EPS/CFPS to $0.75/$1.80 and $0.80/$2.20 from $1.05/$1.85 and $1.15/$2.25, respectively. Lower production guidance was driven by a reduced per well type curve for the Warwick thrust, where SD now assumes a 6.6 Bcfe/well (1.96 Bcf of methane) down from an 8.4 Bcfe/well (2.5 Bcfe of methane).""
The stock performed poorly on Friday but managed to rally into the close, finishing the day at 7.94. Remember that on Wednesday the stock had closed at 8.04. So, probably most of this bad quarterly report was already priced in. Anyway the stock won`t rally significantly from these levels right away because they have to "prove" themselves to the Street again. And that takes time.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 26, 2010
SandRidge Energy (SD) Earnings Do Not Look Good On The Surface. How Will It React?
SandRidge Energy (SD) missed the street consensus number, reporting an EPS of 0.14 against a First Call consensus of 0.19. The immediate reaction in after hours trading was a minor sell-off with the stock going back to 8.00 dollars per share.
SD will hold a Conference Call at 9 ET. I expect it to open lower with heavy volume and make a trading bottom over the next couple of sessions. Anyway, I did not sell any stock in the after hours session because as I said before this is a long term play and I am even holding these shares in a different trading account because I do not want to mix it with my other short term trades in oil, emini S&P Futures and other stocks.
Jim Rogers made some interesting comments about currencies. He told a british newspaper that the British Pound is the most vulnerable currency of all. There is also a must read article about the US dollar moving to parity against the Euro in The Wall Street Journal.
I am wearing by best suit (the old timers know what I mean), but I think this is not going to be a good trading day. But I won`t exclude the possibility of a down gap in SandRidge Energy (SD) followed by a strong reversal fueled by short covering. Don`t forget that short interest is around 20% of the float.
Have a great trading day. I will keep you posted.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
SD will hold a Conference Call at 9 ET. I expect it to open lower with heavy volume and make a trading bottom over the next couple of sessions. Anyway, I did not sell any stock in the after hours session because as I said before this is a long term play and I am even holding these shares in a different trading account because I do not want to mix it with my other short term trades in oil, emini S&P Futures and other stocks.
Jim Rogers made some interesting comments about currencies. He told a british newspaper that the British Pound is the most vulnerable currency of all. There is also a must read article about the US dollar moving to parity against the Euro in The Wall Street Journal.
I am wearing by best suit (the old timers know what I mean), but I think this is not going to be a good trading day. But I won`t exclude the possibility of a down gap in SandRidge Energy (SD) followed by a strong reversal fueled by short covering. Don`t forget that short interest is around 20% of the float.
Have a great trading day. I will keep you posted.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 25, 2010
SandRidge Energy (SD) Rallying Before The Earnings Report
SandRidge Energy (SD) is rallying nicely today before the earnings report, up almost 3%. The short interest in the stock is around 20% of the float and with so many bears will run for the exits if the earnings surprise on the upside and a major short squeeze will send the shares way higher.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is also rallying in a sell off day in the indexes. That is a bullish signal for this stock and I expect it to clear the 1.42 resistance level soon.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is also rallying in a sell off day in the indexes. That is a bullish signal for this stock and I expect it to clear the 1.42 resistance level soon.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Monetary Policy Impacts On The Oil Prices
Dr. Marc Faber explained in a brilliant fashion how the US monetary policy has impacted oil prices since the 2007 rates cuts:
"Before the rate cuts in September 2007, the oil price was at 75 dollars. As you know in the second half of 2007 and early 2008 the global demand for industrial commodities including oil was diminishing already. But the oil price still went up from 77 dollars to 147 dollars. The result of this increase in oil prices was that the total outlays for oil in the US, went from 500 billion annually to an annual rate of over 1 trillion dollars. The consumer was faced essentially with an additional tax of 500 billion USD and that probably pushed consumers over the edge in terms of consumption."
That is why its so difficult to predict oil prices. Besides the fundamentals, global demand and supply, liquidity issues also heavily impact oil prices. And to these 3 forces I will add OPEC. It is a kind of a multidimensional puzzle.
Later today SandRidge Energy (SD) will release its earnings and the company will host a conference call tomorrow morning. I am holding a big position in SandRidge Energy (SD) so this event will probably determina most of my P&L for this weeek and month.
I am staying on the sidelines on the emini S&P futures. I still think the market is on no man`s land and I have no strong views on the market one way or another. Initial Claims data may set the tone for today`s market action and I will be paying close attention also to Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE) earnings release and to Rosetta Stone Inc. (NYSE:RST) that also releases its earnings today. I may get involved on the long side of these stocks for a 1 to 3 days trade.
For the clasic cars fans of this trading community I will link one of my favourites. This time its not a Ferrari, but a powerful, raw and fast 1969 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray. If I one day decide to have a car collection I will surely by one Stingray.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"Before the rate cuts in September 2007, the oil price was at 75 dollars. As you know in the second half of 2007 and early 2008 the global demand for industrial commodities including oil was diminishing already. But the oil price still went up from 77 dollars to 147 dollars. The result of this increase in oil prices was that the total outlays for oil in the US, went from 500 billion annually to an annual rate of over 1 trillion dollars. The consumer was faced essentially with an additional tax of 500 billion USD and that probably pushed consumers over the edge in terms of consumption."
That is why its so difficult to predict oil prices. Besides the fundamentals, global demand and supply, liquidity issues also heavily impact oil prices. And to these 3 forces I will add OPEC. It is a kind of a multidimensional puzzle.
Later today SandRidge Energy (SD) will release its earnings and the company will host a conference call tomorrow morning. I am holding a big position in SandRidge Energy (SD) so this event will probably determina most of my P&L for this weeek and month.
I am staying on the sidelines on the emini S&P futures. I still think the market is on no man`s land and I have no strong views on the market one way or another. Initial Claims data may set the tone for today`s market action and I will be paying close attention also to Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE) earnings release and to Rosetta Stone Inc. (NYSE:RST) that also releases its earnings today. I may get involved on the long side of these stocks for a 1 to 3 days trade.
For the clasic cars fans of this trading community I will link one of my favourites. This time its not a Ferrari, but a powerful, raw and fast 1969 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray. If I one day decide to have a car collection I will surely by one Stingray.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 24, 2010
Markets Are In No Man`s Land. Will Bernanke Be A Market Mover?
I have no trading positions on the Emini S&P Futures nor in Nymex Oil Futures. I closed my shorts yesterday and I am waiting patiently for new opportunities, one way or another.
I am trading my oil system. Some of you have been asking me for the its basic characteristics. Its a system that generates lot of trades each day and is characterized by trading the intraday noise. It fades minor moves and has a fairly large stop that in normal market conditions is not reached. I have developed this system over several months and I am now enjoying its money-making abilities.
SandRidge Energy (SD) had a rough day yesterday, selling off alongside the other natural gas and commodity related names. SandRidge will report its earnings tomorrow after the bell. My average price is 8.36, so I am about 4% off the money.
Today I will trade listening to Sigur Ros, an eccletic band from Iceland. Later today, Chelsea and Inter will play the hotter matchup of the Champions League so far. I hate both teams, but I hate Jose Mourinho even more. So, I am cheering for Chelsea today.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I am trading my oil system. Some of you have been asking me for the its basic characteristics. Its a system that generates lot of trades each day and is characterized by trading the intraday noise. It fades minor moves and has a fairly large stop that in normal market conditions is not reached. I have developed this system over several months and I am now enjoying its money-making abilities.
SandRidge Energy (SD) had a rough day yesterday, selling off alongside the other natural gas and commodity related names. SandRidge will report its earnings tomorrow after the bell. My average price is 8.36, so I am about 4% off the money.
Today I will trade listening to Sigur Ros, an eccletic band from Iceland. Later today, Chelsea and Inter will play the hotter matchup of the Champions League so far. I hate both teams, but I hate Jose Mourinho even more. So, I am cheering for Chelsea today.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 23, 2010
Schork`s Views On Oil.
Here is Stephen Schork`s views on the oil market. He thinks oil prices are artificially low due to several factors including:
Speculators. Goldman Sachs forecasts oil will trade between $85-$95 per barrel for most of the year. Schork says that has nothing to do with fundamentals. "We kind of have this backward economic logic where we bid up oil prices very high, expecting this demand to return," he tells Henry in this clip. "In very few circumstances do we push prices to a very high level and then expect the demand to occur." But, that's exactly what's happening. Schork says Wall Street is telling clients to use oil as a hedge against potential inflation to come.
As a result, crude is trading ahead of demand fundamentals -- leading to our second issue.
Refinery Margin Squeeze. With prices too high for demand, refineries are forced to keep product off the market by closing facilities. "The industry, to protect their margins, has to take matters into their own hands," says Schork. A prime example comes from France, where the country is dealing with a potential gas shortage. Workers at the French oil giant Total are on strike after the company shut one of its refineries and laid off workers. Now, Exxon Mobil workers in the country are threatening to do the same.
The Dollar. With the above two factors in play, it seems investors think the inverse correlation between the dollar and oil prices is less important. Plus, Schork believes the rally in the dollar is not so much about a strong dollar as it is about a weak euro.
Stephen Schork is the editor of The Schork Report.
Related ETF`s: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Speculators. Goldman Sachs forecasts oil will trade between $85-$95 per barrel for most of the year. Schork says that has nothing to do with fundamentals. "We kind of have this backward economic logic where we bid up oil prices very high, expecting this demand to return," he tells Henry in this clip. "In very few circumstances do we push prices to a very high level and then expect the demand to occur." But, that's exactly what's happening. Schork says Wall Street is telling clients to use oil as a hedge against potential inflation to come.
As a result, crude is trading ahead of demand fundamentals -- leading to our second issue.
Refinery Margin Squeeze. With prices too high for demand, refineries are forced to keep product off the market by closing facilities. "The industry, to protect their margins, has to take matters into their own hands," says Schork. A prime example comes from France, where the country is dealing with a potential gas shortage. Workers at the French oil giant Total are on strike after the company shut one of its refineries and laid off workers. Now, Exxon Mobil workers in the country are threatening to do the same.
The Dollar. With the above two factors in play, it seems investors think the inverse correlation between the dollar and oil prices is less important. Plus, Schork believes the rally in the dollar is not so much about a strong dollar as it is about a weak euro.
Stephen Schork is the editor of The Schork Report.
Related ETF`s: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Short On Oil. Getting Anxious On SandRidge Energy (SD) Earnings.
"Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money."
Ed Seykota
Well, if that isn`t a provocative thought, I don`t know what is.
The oil correction seems to be under way. I am short with a small trading position from yesterday`s settlement close. I think there is at least a 3 dollars profit per contract to be made on the short side after this huge run.
But my biggest play is still on SandRidge Energy (SD). They will report earnings on Thursday after the bell. The conference call will be held on Friday morning. I have to say that I am getting a bit anxious because I have a big trading position on.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) had a less than impressive session yesterday and 1.42 is becoming a true resistance point. This stock needs to clear this area soon, or this recent move may be a fake.
Today is Champions League night in Europe and I am looking forward to watch the Barcelona FC match, so my trading session will end a bit sooner today.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Ed Seykota
Well, if that isn`t a provocative thought, I don`t know what is.
The oil correction seems to be under way. I am short with a small trading position from yesterday`s settlement close. I think there is at least a 3 dollars profit per contract to be made on the short side after this huge run.
But my biggest play is still on SandRidge Energy (SD). They will report earnings on Thursday after the bell. The conference call will be held on Friday morning. I have to say that I am getting a bit anxious because I have a big trading position on.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) had a less than impressive session yesterday and 1.42 is becoming a true resistance point. This stock needs to clear this area soon, or this recent move may be a fake.
Today is Champions League night in Europe and I am looking forward to watch the Barcelona FC match, so my trading session will end a bit sooner today.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 22, 2010
Playing Big On SandRidge Energy (SD).
This will be an exciting week. SandRidge Energy (SD) will release its quarterly results on Thursday and Delta Petroleum (DPTR) will probably keep trading upwards on takeover related news.
Marc Faber reiterated today his bullish views on the Japanese Banks on Bloomberg TV (video link) and his slightly bearish stance on the US stock market. My view is that the S&P 500 is on no man`s land and it can go either way from here, but if I had to guess I would say its going down.
I still have some short Emini Futures from Thursday, and despite being long some stocks like SandRidge Energy (SD), Delta Petroleum (DPTR), Frontier Oil (FTO) and the japanese banks, I am looking forward to close those shorts on the first reaction. I want to be totally focused on my stock positions for the time being. I see a big opportunity brewing in SandRidge Energy (SD) and if they post good earnings and the stocks behaves well I am going to add to it and ride it higher. It can very well be my best play ever because I am playing big and will play even bigger if things go my way.
I will leave with a Voltaire quote, "When it is a question of money, everyone is of the same religion". Have a great trading day and keep an eye on Delta. It may very well surge again.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Marc Faber reiterated today his bullish views on the Japanese Banks on Bloomberg TV (video link) and his slightly bearish stance on the US stock market. My view is that the S&P 500 is on no man`s land and it can go either way from here, but if I had to guess I would say its going down.
I still have some short Emini Futures from Thursday, and despite being long some stocks like SandRidge Energy (SD), Delta Petroleum (DPTR), Frontier Oil (FTO) and the japanese banks, I am looking forward to close those shorts on the first reaction. I want to be totally focused on my stock positions for the time being. I see a big opportunity brewing in SandRidge Energy (SD) and if they post good earnings and the stocks behaves well I am going to add to it and ride it higher. It can very well be my best play ever because I am playing big and will play even bigger if things go my way.
I will leave with a Voltaire quote, "When it is a question of money, everyone is of the same religion". Have a great trading day and keep an eye on Delta. It may very well surge again.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 21, 2010
More On Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Takeover Rumors.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares rallied sharply on Friday on takeover speculations. I still hold a relatively large position on Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and I expect it to trade much higher. Denver-based Bill Barrett Corporation (NYSE:BBG) and Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CLR) may bid on all or some of the company`s assets according to the Denver Post:
"The shares are rising on speculation that Denver-based Bill Barrett Corporation (NYSE:BBG) and Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CLR) may bid on some or all of the company, said analyst Jack Aydin. "We actively look at assets that are for sale in the Rocky Mountain region," Jennifer Martin, director of investor relations for Bill Barrett Corp., said Friday."
Of course this is a very speculative stock and can go either way on the short term. But friday`s volume speaks for itself. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) traded over 15 million shares, almost 3 times its normal volume.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"The shares are rising on speculation that Denver-based Bill Barrett Corporation (NYSE:BBG) and Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE:CLR) may bid on some or all of the company, said analyst Jack Aydin. "We actively look at assets that are for sale in the Rocky Mountain region," Jennifer Martin, director of investor relations for Bill Barrett Corp., said Friday."
Of course this is a very speculative stock and can go either way on the short term. But friday`s volume speaks for itself. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) traded over 15 million shares, almost 3 times its normal volume.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
SandRidge Energy (SD): One Big Investor Is Positioning For A Rally
As you know, my biggest trading position is on SandRidge Energy (SD). I was able to buy the stock in the low 8`s and I am sitting on a small profit.
I see several factors that can make the stock rally in the near to medium term: I am very bullish on the natural gas sector (some mergers and buyouts have been occuring), I like SandRidge Energy (SD) shareholder base (the CEO owns 15% of the company and FMR LLC owns around 12%) and the stock is trading at 8, having corrected from 15 dollars a share in the last 4 to 5 months.
OptionMonster had a bullish piece on the stock that makes me even more bullish on SD:
"SandRidge Energy (SD) refuses to fall below $8, and now one big investor is positioning for a rally in the debt-laden, heavily shorted stock.
optionMONSTER's tracking programs detected the sale of 5,000 June 7.50 puts for $0.55 and the purchase of an equal number of June 9 calls for $0.90. The trade cost a net debit of $0.35 and volume was more than four times open interest in both strikes.
SD is up slightly to $8.54 in afternoon trading but down 13 percent in the last month. The shares have been finding support at $8 and rallied back on heavy volume the last time they tried to push below that level on Feb. 5. The $8 mark also held against the bears in June, July and December.
Given the apparent strength of support at that level, today's trader may feel confident writing puts at $7.50 and using the income to wager on a move to the upside.
The strategy, known as a bullish risk reversal or "synthetic long," will double his or her investment for every $0.35 SD trades above $9.35 through expiration. They will lose money in excess of the debit paid if SandRidge falls below $7.50.
Sentiment has been negative on the energy ompany, whose debt load is 147 times greater than its cash reserves. Short interest also represented a hefty 25 percent of the float as of Jan. 29. It would take more than five days of average daily volume for the bears to cover if the stock begins to rally.
Today's bullish options trade may have been implemented as an outright upside play, or as a hedge by a short seller looking to protect against a move to the upside.
Overall options volume in SD is almost eight times greater than average so far today." in Option Monster
Must Read: SandRidge Energy (SD): Attractive Value, Desirable Acquisition Target
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I see several factors that can make the stock rally in the near to medium term: I am very bullish on the natural gas sector (some mergers and buyouts have been occuring), I like SandRidge Energy (SD) shareholder base (the CEO owns 15% of the company and FMR LLC owns around 12%) and the stock is trading at 8, having corrected from 15 dollars a share in the last 4 to 5 months.
OptionMonster had a bullish piece on the stock that makes me even more bullish on SD:
"SandRidge Energy (SD) refuses to fall below $8, and now one big investor is positioning for a rally in the debt-laden, heavily shorted stock.
optionMONSTER's tracking programs detected the sale of 5,000 June 7.50 puts for $0.55 and the purchase of an equal number of June 9 calls for $0.90. The trade cost a net debit of $0.35 and volume was more than four times open interest in both strikes.
SD is up slightly to $8.54 in afternoon trading but down 13 percent in the last month. The shares have been finding support at $8 and rallied back on heavy volume the last time they tried to push below that level on Feb. 5. The $8 mark also held against the bears in June, July and December.
Given the apparent strength of support at that level, today's trader may feel confident writing puts at $7.50 and using the income to wager on a move to the upside.
The strategy, known as a bullish risk reversal or "synthetic long," will double his or her investment for every $0.35 SD trades above $9.35 through expiration. They will lose money in excess of the debit paid if SandRidge falls below $7.50.
Sentiment has been negative on the energy ompany, whose debt load is 147 times greater than its cash reserves. Short interest also represented a hefty 25 percent of the float as of Jan. 29. It would take more than five days of average daily volume for the bears to cover if the stock begins to rally.
Today's bullish options trade may have been implemented as an outright upside play, or as a hedge by a short seller looking to protect against a move to the upside.
Overall options volume in SD is almost eight times greater than average so far today." in Option Monster
Must Read: SandRidge Energy (SD): Attractive Value, Desirable Acquisition Target
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 19, 2010
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Rallying 7%. Takeover Rumors.
There is a headline on Street Insider saying "Delta Petroleum (DPTR) sees interest on takeover rumors". I could not confirm it but every rumor is welcome as I am long this stock.
But rumor or no rumor this stock is going to go a lot higher. It has traded its average daily volume in the first hour of trading. Something is brewing here. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) can double in no time.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
But rumor or no rumor this stock is going to go a lot higher. It has traded its average daily volume in the first hour of trading. Something is brewing here. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) can double in no time.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
US Economy, Chinese Slowdown And Short Trading Positions.
I found two interesting pieces this morning while reading my regular sources. This is a brilliant take on the US economy that I have found on the Pragmatic Capitalist:
"Economic momentum, as sluggish as it was, may have already peaked. Fiscal support for the economy may be more of a restraint as the year goes by, and any attempt at additional stimulus will face major headwinds as public sentiment against further deficit increases are accelerating. The diminution of inventory reductions probably reached a maximum in the fourth quarter when they accounted for nearly two-thirds of the rise in GDP. The accelerated depreciation tax benefit that helped push capital expenditures foreword expired at year-end. Hiring has not picked up while wages remain stagnant and consumers are deleveraging debt.
In addition the Fed is ending its purchases of MBS at the end of March and major increases in home foreclosures are on the horizon. Credit remains tight as consumer credit continues to decline and commercial and industrial loans are also dropping. With both housing and consumer spending not in a position to perform their typical role of sparking an economic revival, there is no major driver for sustaining the economy once the contributions from inventories and fiscal policy wind down."
I would also like to highlight yesterday`s comments by Dr. Marc Faber regarding the chinese economy:
"I think the issue for 2010 is to what extent China will slowdown, it will certainly slowdown"
I am still heavily short on the S&P Futures and short to a less extent on Crude Oil Futures. I expected futures to be down harder this morning, but I will wait patiently for 9.30 ET to decide what to do with my line. I can add, reduce or close it all together. This markets calls for decisive actions.
Have a great trading day. I know many of you are also short, so you will probably have a great day as well.
Related ETF`s: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO) ; iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI) ; SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"Economic momentum, as sluggish as it was, may have already peaked. Fiscal support for the economy may be more of a restraint as the year goes by, and any attempt at additional stimulus will face major headwinds as public sentiment against further deficit increases are accelerating. The diminution of inventory reductions probably reached a maximum in the fourth quarter when they accounted for nearly two-thirds of the rise in GDP. The accelerated depreciation tax benefit that helped push capital expenditures foreword expired at year-end. Hiring has not picked up while wages remain stagnant and consumers are deleveraging debt.
In addition the Fed is ending its purchases of MBS at the end of March and major increases in home foreclosures are on the horizon. Credit remains tight as consumer credit continues to decline and commercial and industrial loans are also dropping. With both housing and consumer spending not in a position to perform their typical role of sparking an economic revival, there is no major driver for sustaining the economy once the contributions from inventories and fiscal policy wind down."
I would also like to highlight yesterday`s comments by Dr. Marc Faber regarding the chinese economy:
"I think the issue for 2010 is to what extent China will slowdown, it will certainly slowdown"
I am still heavily short on the S&P Futures and short to a less extent on Crude Oil Futures. I expected futures to be down harder this morning, but I will wait patiently for 9.30 ET to decide what to do with my line. I can add, reduce or close it all together. This markets calls for decisive actions.
Have a great trading day. I know many of you are also short, so you will probably have a great day as well.
Related ETF`s: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO) ; iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI) ; SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 18, 2010
Fed Raises The Discount Rate In A Surprise Move. My Short Positions Will Rock Tomorrow.
I must say that I could not see this one coming. But being heavily short on the S&P Futures and with a relatively smaller short line on Crude Oil Futures, I must thank Ben Bernanke for this rate move. Futures are trading down in after hours but I think they will a lot lower tomorrow.
I was a bit disappointed with today`s trading action, because I shorted before the data came out at 8.00 am and after the data at 8.31 am and I was carrying an unprofitable trading position at the closing bell.
I will stay in the office a bit longer to see how they open in Asia. We can have 300 plus point sell off on the Dow Jones tomorrow and a 3 dollar down day in Oil. It will be an exciting and very profitable trading day tomorrow. I will drink a nice bottle of Italian wine later today. I deserve it.
I will leave you with a fun quote from Hobart Brown, "Money doesn't always bring happiness. People with ten million dollars are no happier than people with nine million dollars."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I was a bit disappointed with today`s trading action, because I shorted before the data came out at 8.00 am and after the data at 8.31 am and I was carrying an unprofitable trading position at the closing bell.
I will stay in the office a bit longer to see how they open in Asia. We can have 300 plus point sell off on the Dow Jones tomorrow and a 3 dollar down day in Oil. It will be an exciting and very profitable trading day tomorrow. I will drink a nice bottle of Italian wine later today. I deserve it.
I will leave you with a fun quote from Hobart Brown, "Money doesn't always bring happiness. People with ten million dollars are no happier than people with nine million dollars."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Is The Shanghai Composite Index A Leading Indicator?
I found this interesting piece on The Pragmatic Capitalist. They say, and I totally agree, that the chinese stock market is one of the best leading indicators:
"Few markets have served as a better leading indicator than China’s Shanghai index. China led us out of the recession and markets have traded sideways since the Shanghai peaked last summer. Since then, the Chinese equity market has slowly unraveled piece by piece. China led the equity markets lower in the summer of 2008 before the bear market struck and bottomed several month in advance of the S&P 500.
After a 50% rally the risk reward is not nearly as enticing. The Shanghai only recently breached its 200DMA on the downside for the first time since it did so two years ago. Investors would be wise to take note."
China`s stock market is closed this week due to the Lunar Holidays. When it re-opens it will give us some more important clues about the market`s future direction. Marc Faber, Jim Chanos and others have been warning investors about a major slowdown even the possibility of a crash on the chinese economy. If that is the case all commodities will suffer, including oil. I sense that markets will be very trabable in the next few weeks.
Related ETF`s: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)and United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"Few markets have served as a better leading indicator than China’s Shanghai index. China led us out of the recession and markets have traded sideways since the Shanghai peaked last summer. Since then, the Chinese equity market has slowly unraveled piece by piece. China led the equity markets lower in the summer of 2008 before the bear market struck and bottomed several month in advance of the S&P 500.
After a 50% rally the risk reward is not nearly as enticing. The Shanghai only recently breached its 200DMA on the downside for the first time since it did so two years ago. Investors would be wise to take note."
China`s stock market is closed this week due to the Lunar Holidays. When it re-opens it will give us some more important clues about the market`s future direction. Marc Faber, Jim Chanos and others have been warning investors about a major slowdown even the possibility of a crash on the chinese economy. If that is the case all commodities will suffer, including oil. I sense that markets will be very trabable in the next few weeks.
Related ETF`s: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)and United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
API Inventories. Short On Crude Oil Futures.
The American Petroleum Institute released its weekly inventories report, showing a small decrease in crude oil inventories and a big rise in distillate fuel and gasoline stocks:
"Crude oil inventories fell by 63,000 barrels last week to 337.6 million, the American Petroleum Institute said today.
Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased by 1.28 million barrels to 159.5 million. Gasoline inventories gained 1.43 million to 230.3 million.
The Energy Department is scheduled to release its inventory report tomorrow at 11 a.m. in Washington. The API and government figures are delayed because of the Presidents Day holiday on Feb. 15. Oil-supply totals from the API and DOE moved in the same direction 75 percent of the time over the past four years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."
I am short on NYMEX crude oil futures from 77.00 USD.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"Crude oil inventories fell by 63,000 barrels last week to 337.6 million, the American Petroleum Institute said today.
Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased by 1.28 million barrels to 159.5 million. Gasoline inventories gained 1.43 million to 230.3 million.
The Energy Department is scheduled to release its inventory report tomorrow at 11 a.m. in Washington. The API and government figures are delayed because of the Presidents Day holiday on Feb. 15. Oil-supply totals from the API and DOE moved in the same direction 75 percent of the time over the past four years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."
I am short on NYMEX crude oil futures from 77.00 USD.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 17, 2010
Oil Futures: Choppy Trading Session
Oil rose slightly Wednesday in choppy, light-volume trading as the market weighed positive U.S. housing and industrial output data against pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.
March crude oil futures closed the session above 77 USD a barrel after making an intraday low around 76.50 USD. Oil futures rallied sharply in the last few sessions after making a multi week low of 69.50 USD per barrel last week.
Oil traders are waiting for the release of oil inventory reports for the United States, the world's top oil consumer, on Wednesday and Thursday. I was a bit disappointed with today`s action. I was short oil and long US dollars and expecting oil futures to follow through on the downside responding to the dollar strength. The dollar trade was a winner and I closed it near the end of the session but I kept my crude oil shorts. I will decide what to do with it, after tomorrow`s crude oil inventories report.
But my biggest trading position is still on SandRidge Energy (SD). The stock was quiet today and closed at 8.60.
I recommend reading this article: Citigroup (C) Stocks Are Being Bought By Major Hedge Funds. I think the line of least resistance in this stock will be up.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
March crude oil futures closed the session above 77 USD a barrel after making an intraday low around 76.50 USD. Oil futures rallied sharply in the last few sessions after making a multi week low of 69.50 USD per barrel last week.
Oil traders are waiting for the release of oil inventory reports for the United States, the world's top oil consumer, on Wednesday and Thursday. I was a bit disappointed with today`s action. I was short oil and long US dollars and expecting oil futures to follow through on the downside responding to the dollar strength. The dollar trade was a winner and I closed it near the end of the session but I kept my crude oil shorts. I will decide what to do with it, after tomorrow`s crude oil inventories report.
But my biggest trading position is still on SandRidge Energy (SD). The stock was quiet today and closed at 8.60.
I recommend reading this article: Citigroup (C) Stocks Are Being Bought By Major Hedge Funds. I think the line of least resistance in this stock will be up.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
S&P and Oil Futures Are Overbought. I Am Ready To Short Again.
After a nice rally from an intraday low of 69.50 dollars per barrel last week, to today`s 77.50, oil futures are ready for a correction. I am bearish on oil short term, and this rebound is probably near its end. I have similar views on the stock market. I doubt very much that the S&P can trade above 1100 points for long.
Liquidity is tightning, China is already tightning its monetary policy, these debt issues are also not liquidity friendly and the risk trade will suffer (read Marc Faber`s view on China`s tightning).
Even though, I will keep my structural longs on SandRidge Energy (SD), Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and on the japanese banks plus some refiners. I don`t want to sell these stocks because they all have a doubling potential in the medium term. Japanese stocks rallied nicely today after a few lackluster sessions. I am very bullish on the japanese stock market and particularly on the japanese banks (read this related material).
Today I will trade listening to The Cinematic Orchestra. My favourite track is To Build a Home. Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Liquidity is tightning, China is already tightning its monetary policy, these debt issues are also not liquidity friendly and the risk trade will suffer (read Marc Faber`s view on China`s tightning).
Even though, I will keep my structural longs on SandRidge Energy (SD), Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and on the japanese banks plus some refiners. I don`t want to sell these stocks because they all have a doubling potential in the medium term. Japanese stocks rallied nicely today after a few lackluster sessions. I am very bullish on the japanese stock market and particularly on the japanese banks (read this related material).
Today I will trade listening to The Cinematic Orchestra. My favourite track is To Build a Home. Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 16, 2010
Oil And Equity Futures Are Up. My Biggest Position Is On SandRidge Energy (SD).
Despite this week`s negative bias (the S&P has fallen on average on the President`s Day week), the markets are off to a good start. Equity futures are trading up and crude oil futures are rallying more than 1 dollar per contract.
My biggest trading position by far is on SandRidge Energy (SD) but I am also carrying big lines on the japanese banks, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR). But I am not trading on these stocks (or trying not to because I have great entry prices). I bought them for the long account and I will (try) to see them as long term investments because then can double or triple in a few months or years. So patience will certainly pay.
I will daytrade oil futures as usual and look for new investment opportunities to come along...they always do.
Today is Champions League evening in Europe and Manchester United will play AC Milan. What a great contest. My favourite to win the CL is Barcelona FC.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
My biggest trading position by far is on SandRidge Energy (SD) but I am also carrying big lines on the japanese banks, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR). But I am not trading on these stocks (or trying not to because I have great entry prices). I bought them for the long account and I will (try) to see them as long term investments because then can double or triple in a few months or years. So patience will certainly pay.
I will daytrade oil futures as usual and look for new investment opportunities to come along...they always do.
Today is Champions League evening in Europe and Manchester United will play AC Milan. What a great contest. My favourite to win the CL is Barcelona FC.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 14, 2010
Why You Should Consider Trading A System.
As you know I am both a systematic and a discretionary trader. I think sometimes people forget that trading is human performance. In that sense, changes in equity reflect the performance of the trader much more than what happens in the markets. That is because a good trader can make money no matter what the market is doing. The reverse is also true. A poor trader is unlekely to make money, regardless of what the market is doing.
I have been on a hot streak both in my discretionary trading and on my oil trading system. I have developed a proprietary trading system that daytrades oil futures and its showing me stellar results. When you develop a positive expectancy system that creates a lot of intraday trades, you are truly holding the keys to unlock your enrichment potential.
Most trading books and professional traders say to you should follow the trend, let your profits run and cut your losses short. They say that if you design something around these rules you will make a lot of money. My experience is that in order to develop a trading system that wins every single day, you need to brake some of those "secular trading rules".
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I have been on a hot streak both in my discretionary trading and on my oil trading system. I have developed a proprietary trading system that daytrades oil futures and its showing me stellar results. When you develop a positive expectancy system that creates a lot of intraday trades, you are truly holding the keys to unlock your enrichment potential.
Most trading books and professional traders say to you should follow the trend, let your profits run and cut your losses short. They say that if you design something around these rules you will make a lot of money. My experience is that in order to develop a trading system that wins every single day, you need to brake some of those "secular trading rules".
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 12, 2010
Weekend Trading Thought.
"More men have become great through practice than by nature."
- Democritus
So, trade, practice, track and evaluate your performance.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
- Democritus
So, trade, practice, track and evaluate your performance.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
China Raises Bank Reserve Requirement. Bearish For Commodities.
China raised again the Bank Reserve Requirement in an attempt to cool inflation pressures that are merging in China. As Marc Faber refered yesterday, the chinese monetary policy tightning and the cooling of its economy is very bearish for all commodities including oil:
"China ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to cool the fastest-growing economy after loan growth accelerated and property prices surged.
The reserve requirement will increase 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, effective Feb. 25, the People’s Bank of China said on its Web site today. The current level is 16 percent for big banks and 14 percent for smaller ones." in Bloomberg
SandRidge Energy (SD) and Delta Petroleum (DPTR) rallied nicely into the close yesterday but are losing some ground today. I am not getting involved in the trading action today and I am only trading my oil futures daytrading system. Its working nicely and I feel like I have a personal ATM machine at my disposal.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"China ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to cool the fastest-growing economy after loan growth accelerated and property prices surged.
The reserve requirement will increase 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, effective Feb. 25, the People’s Bank of China said on its Web site today. The current level is 16 percent for big banks and 14 percent for smaller ones." in Bloomberg
SandRidge Energy (SD) and Delta Petroleum (DPTR) rallied nicely into the close yesterday but are losing some ground today. I am not getting involved in the trading action today and I am only trading my oil futures daytrading system. Its working nicely and I feel like I have a personal ATM machine at my disposal.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 11, 2010
Adding To SandRidge Energy (SD). This Stock Can Double In 3 Months.
I am very bullish on Sandridge Energy (SD) and I took advantage of the early weakness to add to my trading position. I am holding SD stocks at an average price of 8.20. Please notice that SandRidge Energy was trading at around 15 last November. I expect it to trade back up to the 10-12 range pretty quickly, as the natural gas assets are becoming increasingly attractive.
Remember that Exxon Mobil (XOM) bought XTO Energy (XTO) recently and TOTAL is partnering with Chesapeake Energy (CHK). Major oil companies are positioning themselves in the US natural gas market and so am I.
I also own a small trading position in Delta Petroleum (DPTR) but I am accumulating a major position in Sandridge Energy. The chief executive officer and chairman of SandRidge is Tom L. Ward, who is listed by Forbes Magazine as one of the 400 Richest Americans. Ward previously co-founded Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and was the chief operating officer of that company from 1989 until 1996. The other major shareholder is FMR LLC, the investment arm of Fidelity Investments. This makes me even more bullish on SandRidge Energy (SD).
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Remember that Exxon Mobil (XOM) bought XTO Energy (XTO) recently and TOTAL is partnering with Chesapeake Energy (CHK). Major oil companies are positioning themselves in the US natural gas market and so am I.
I also own a small trading position in Delta Petroleum (DPTR) but I am accumulating a major position in Sandridge Energy. The chief executive officer and chairman of SandRidge is Tom L. Ward, who is listed by Forbes Magazine as one of the 400 Richest Americans. Ward previously co-founded Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and was the chief operating officer of that company from 1989 until 1996. The other major shareholder is FMR LLC, the investment arm of Fidelity Investments. This makes me even more bullish on SandRidge Energy (SD).
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Marc Faber: A Possible Crash in China’s Economy Will Be Disastrous For Industrial Commodities
Marc Faber was interviewed on Bloomberg Asia this morning and had a very bearish stance on industrial commodities.
Some of his most interesting comments were:
“The economy (China), for sure, will slow down meaningfully this year. It has the potential to crash because of the overcapacities that have developed, and when loan growth slows down, we don’t know how the economy will react.”
I think markets are in a critical juncture and I not commiting serious money either way for now. I am trading my intraday oil futures trading system with great results and I don`t see any great opportunity to put money to work on discretionary trading.
So I am only holding to the japanese banks (long term play) and to some small cap natural gas stocks like Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD).
I will be ready to buy panic again if market participants get nervous again in the near future.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Some of his most interesting comments were:
“The economy (China), for sure, will slow down meaningfully this year. It has the potential to crash because of the overcapacities that have developed, and when loan growth slows down, we don’t know how the economy will react.”
I think markets are in a critical juncture and I not commiting serious money either way for now. I am trading my intraday oil futures trading system with great results and I don`t see any great opportunity to put money to work on discretionary trading.
So I am only holding to the japanese banks (long term play) and to some small cap natural gas stocks like Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD).
I will be ready to buy panic again if market participants get nervous again in the near future.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 10, 2010
Crude Oil Inventories. Taking Profits Out Of The Trading Account.
Oil is trading flat around 74 USD a barrel despite yesterday`s evening data that showed a large build in U.S. crude stocks, signaling persistently weak demand in the world's top energy consumer.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory data showed a surprisingly large rise in US crude and gasoline inventories last week.
Crude prices are down nearly 8 percent this year to stand at about half their July 2008 high of more than 147 a barrel. Prices have been hammered by data showing bulging fuel stockpiles in the US despite cold weather, worries about slower Asian demand if China further tightens its monetary policy, and more recently, jitters over Europe's financial stability.
Last week, U.S. crude inventories jumped by 7.2 million barrels to 337.6 million barrels, against expectations of a rise of 1.5 million barrels, and despite a drop in crude imports and weekly crude runs. Gasoline inventories also rose more than expected, climbing 1.6 million barrels to 228.8 million barrels, exceeding analyst estimates of a 500,000 barrel build.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its Crude Inventories data later today.
I will trade my intraday crude oil futures trading system because I am out of the markets after being short, reversing to long and closing out my positions. I am having a great month and a fantastic start to the year. I hope things will continue to go my way. I am making my first "profit withdrawal of the year". I like to take my profits out of my trading account regularly because that helps me not getting too optimistic on my own trading performance and valuing the hard earned cash.
Related ETF`s: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO), ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil ETF (SCO)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory data showed a surprisingly large rise in US crude and gasoline inventories last week.
Crude prices are down nearly 8 percent this year to stand at about half their July 2008 high of more than 147 a barrel. Prices have been hammered by data showing bulging fuel stockpiles in the US despite cold weather, worries about slower Asian demand if China further tightens its monetary policy, and more recently, jitters over Europe's financial stability.
Last week, U.S. crude inventories jumped by 7.2 million barrels to 337.6 million barrels, against expectations of a rise of 1.5 million barrels, and despite a drop in crude imports and weekly crude runs. Gasoline inventories also rose more than expected, climbing 1.6 million barrels to 228.8 million barrels, exceeding analyst estimates of a 500,000 barrel build.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its Crude Inventories data later today.
I will trade my intraday crude oil futures trading system because I am out of the markets after being short, reversing to long and closing out my positions. I am having a great month and a fantastic start to the year. I hope things will continue to go my way. I am making my first "profit withdrawal of the year". I like to take my profits out of my trading account regularly because that helps me not getting too optimistic on my own trading performance and valuing the hard earned cash.
Related ETF`s: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO), ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil ETF (SCO)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 9, 2010
China`s Sovereign Wealth Fund Is The 4th Largest Holder Of U.S. Oil Fund (USO)
China Investment Corp., the nation’s sovereign wealth fund, invested for the first time in the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO), an exchange-traded crude-futures fund, joining Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS) among the top holders.
CIC became the 4th largest holder in the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO) by buying 2 million shares with a value of 78.6 million dollars, according to a SEC 13-F filing posted on February 5. It also took a 1.45 million share stake, or 0.4 percent of the total, in the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD) worth 155.6 million million dollars.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
CIC became the 4th largest holder in the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO) by buying 2 million shares with a value of 78.6 million dollars, according to a SEC 13-F filing posted on February 5. It also took a 1.45 million share stake, or 0.4 percent of the total, in the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD) worth 155.6 million million dollars.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Market Is Most Oversold Since March 2009.
Bespoke Investment Group wrote a very interesting piece about the oversold level of the S&P 500 that I would like to share with you. 305 stocks or 61% of the S&P 500 Index members are now trading more than one standard deviation below their 50-day moving average:
"One indicator we monitor on a daily basis is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are oversold and overbought (stocks that are more than one standard deviation above or below their 50-day moving average). Currently, 305 stocks (61%) in the S&P 500 are oversold, while only 25 are overbought. As shown in the chart below, the percentage of oversold stocks in the S&P 500 (green line) is higher than it has been at any other time since the S&P 500 bounced off the lows in March 2009."
So, while I am bearish and expecting further downside, a reflex rally is to be expected.
Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (QQQQ), iShares S&P 500 Index (ETF) (IVV), ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (ETF) (UPRO)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"One indicator we monitor on a daily basis is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are oversold and overbought (stocks that are more than one standard deviation above or below their 50-day moving average). Currently, 305 stocks (61%) in the S&P 500 are oversold, while only 25 are overbought. As shown in the chart below, the percentage of oversold stocks in the S&P 500 (green line) is higher than it has been at any other time since the S&P 500 bounced off the lows in March 2009."
So, while I am bearish and expecting further downside, a reflex rally is to be expected.
Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (QQQQ), iShares S&P 500 Index (ETF) (IVV), ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (ETF) (UPRO)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 8, 2010
Markets Sell Off Into The Close. More Downside To Come.
Markets could not continue Friday`s intraday recovery rally and sold off hard into the close. The recent bear move is intact and there will be more downside in the next few days/weeks.
Marc Faber gave an interesting video interview to Bloomberg that I highly recommend watching. You can find the video, here.
I keep on trading my intraday oil trading system and that is why I have not written much about oil`s market direction recently. This system shows a Profit Factor of 2 and generates 5 to 8 trades per day. So it has good "expectancy", good "opportunity", which tranlates into 80% profitable days (check Van Tharp`s books on those issues). I will now commit most of my funds to this trading system, because I simply cannot beat its risk adjusted returns. Have I created a system that is a better trader than me, at least on a risk adjusted basis?
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Marc Faber gave an interesting video interview to Bloomberg that I highly recommend watching. You can find the video, here.
I keep on trading my intraday oil trading system and that is why I have not written much about oil`s market direction recently. This system shows a Profit Factor of 2 and generates 5 to 8 trades per day. So it has good "expectancy", good "opportunity", which tranlates into 80% profitable days (check Van Tharp`s books on those issues). I will now commit most of my funds to this trading system, because I simply cannot beat its risk adjusted returns. Have I created a system that is a better trader than me, at least on a risk adjusted basis?
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Novagold (NG) Keeps On Rallying. Its A Prime Takeover Candidate
Of all the stocks I have bought near the Friday`s low, Novagold (NG) is by far the best performer. Its already up 12% from my entry price and near its intraday highs.
NovaGold has a 1.19 billion dollars market cap and two major gold and copper projects, Donlin Creek and Galore Creek. Once they come on stream, NovaGold could produce a million ounces of gold a year and net about 1 billion dollars in operating cash flow as long as precious metal prices stay strong.
In 2006, Barrick Gold (ABX) initiated a hostile bid for NovaGold (NG) and failed. NovaGold rejected the 16 dollars per share offer, but with shares now trading at under 7 and financing hard to come by, NovaGold could be looking for another buyer. So Novagold is clearly a prime takeover candidate.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
NovaGold has a 1.19 billion dollars market cap and two major gold and copper projects, Donlin Creek and Galore Creek. Once they come on stream, NovaGold could produce a million ounces of gold a year and net about 1 billion dollars in operating cash flow as long as precious metal prices stay strong.
In 2006, Barrick Gold (ABX) initiated a hostile bid for NovaGold (NG) and failed. NovaGold rejected the 16 dollars per share offer, but with shares now trading at under 7 and financing hard to come by, NovaGold could be looking for another buyer. So Novagold is clearly a prime takeover candidate.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Bullish On Western Refining (WNR)
I am buying Western Refining (WNR) stocks adding to my current position. I think the refiners are forming a major bottom and I am accumulating these stocks on weakness.
I bought Western Refining (WNR) friday afternoon at 4.10 and I am adding some more shares today. I am looking for a recovery rally to the 6 to 8 USD zone.
This will be a trader`s market for the next few weeks. I think the best way to play it will be to buy extreme weakness and sell the reflex rallies.
"A wise man should have money in his head, but not in his heart." - Jonathan Swift
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I bought Western Refining (WNR) friday afternoon at 4.10 and I am adding some more shares today. I am looking for a recovery rally to the 6 to 8 USD zone.
This will be a trader`s market for the next few weeks. I think the best way to play it will be to buy extreme weakness and sell the reflex rallies.
"A wise man should have money in his head, but not in his heart." - Jonathan Swift
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Japanese Banks Rallied Despite The Nikkei`s Sell Off.
I am holding the japanese banks through ADR`s and I took advantage of this recent sell off in global equities to add to my positions on Friday. The japanese financial stocks managed to rally despite the Nikkei 225 general weakness. That is very bullish:
"Financial stocks were broadly higher in Tokyo after heavy losses recently, limiting the market's decline. Mizuho Financial Group rose 0.6%, Resona Holdings gained 2.3% and Nomura Holdings added 1.1%." in WSJ
I do not plan to sell any of my stocks today because I expect this rally to go a bit further. I have no shorts at the present time, having closed both my emini S&P 500 futures and my Ford (F) shorts on Friday`s weakness.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
"Financial stocks were broadly higher in Tokyo after heavy losses recently, limiting the market's decline. Mizuho Financial Group rose 0.6%, Resona Holdings gained 2.3% and Nomura Holdings added 1.1%." in WSJ
I do not plan to sell any of my stocks today because I expect this rally to go a bit further. I have no shorts at the present time, having closed both my emini S&P 500 futures and my Ford (F) shorts on Friday`s weakness.
Have a great trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 7, 2010
Took Advantage Of The Panic And Bought Stocks. Novagold (NG), Delta Petroleum (DPTR) And Western Refining (WNR) Were Some Of My Picks.
I bought into the panic and I am now only holding long positions. I am not sure if the market will rally from here, or if the "sovereign debt market correction" will extended a bit further into next week or month. But in the end, there is only one solution for so much debt. And the solution is obviously monetization.
If I am right about this, in the end, sovereign debt concerns will be bullish for stocks and commodities because monetization will mean higher prices for everything. But I am a short term player, and I bought into the panic, got great prices and I will be ready to sell on the rally, if market participants get too enthusiastic again.
Just to remind you, I closed my S&P Futures shorts at midday on Friday and completely reversed to long, buying stocks including: Western Refining (WNR), Novagold (NG), Sandridge Energy (SD), NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS), Delta Petroleum (DPTR), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (SMFJY), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG). Novagold (NG) actually rallied the most from my entry point, closing the session sharply higher.
I am anxious to see how will markets perform on Monday, specially the japanese Nikkei because by biggest trading positions are on the japanese banks. In the midst of all this I have also bought stocks of a portuguese bank, Banco Espirito Santo. Portuguese and greek banks were very hard hit on the last few weeks and there are some good opportunities there.
I found these very interesting comments over the weekend from Doug Kass:
"Greece's total stock market valuation is "slightly more than Citigroup's (C)." And, if you add the GDP of Greece and Portugal together, "they will equal the size of one large systemic institution in the United States."
For these reasons and others, I view the yesterday's panic as a likely nearing of the end to the market's correction rather than the beginning of a much larger selloff or bear market.
It will soon be time to be greedy when others are fearful."
Have a great trading week.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
If I am right about this, in the end, sovereign debt concerns will be bullish for stocks and commodities because monetization will mean higher prices for everything. But I am a short term player, and I bought into the panic, got great prices and I will be ready to sell on the rally, if market participants get too enthusiastic again.
Just to remind you, I closed my S&P Futures shorts at midday on Friday and completely reversed to long, buying stocks including: Western Refining (WNR), Novagold (NG), Sandridge Energy (SD), NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS), Delta Petroleum (DPTR), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (SMFJY), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG). Novagold (NG) actually rallied the most from my entry point, closing the session sharply higher.
I am anxious to see how will markets perform on Monday, specially the japanese Nikkei because by biggest trading positions are on the japanese banks. In the midst of all this I have also bought stocks of a portuguese bank, Banco Espirito Santo. Portuguese and greek banks were very hard hit on the last few weeks and there are some good opportunities there.
I found these very interesting comments over the weekend from Doug Kass:
"Greece's total stock market valuation is "slightly more than Citigroup's (C)." And, if you add the GDP of Greece and Portugal together, "they will equal the size of one large systemic institution in the United States."
For these reasons and others, I view the yesterday's panic as a likely nearing of the end to the market's correction rather than the beginning of a much larger selloff or bear market.
It will soon be time to be greedy when others are fearful."
Have a great trading week.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 5, 2010
Perfect Trading Day.
It was a perfect trading day for me and it will be a day to remember. After catching all the downleg with the S&P Futures and closing them at midday I reversed to long buying Western Refining (WNR), Novagold (NG), Sandridge Energy (SD), NGAS Resources, Inc. (NGAS) and added to the japanese banks :Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (SMFJY), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU), Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG).
There are times that we traders are completely in synch with the market, selling just before a sell off and covering and buying at exactly the exact time. I am feeling in the zone.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
There are times that we traders are completely in synch with the market, selling just before a sell off and covering and buying at exactly the exact time. I am feeling in the zone.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
We Will Sell Off Again Today. I Will Close Shorts On Weakness And Reverse.
This is my plan for today. I will close my shorts on weakness, and probably reverse to a net long position near the closing bell.
Panic always creates opportunity and I will take advantage of the fear to buy some stocks like Applied Materials (AMAT), Novagold (NG), Delta Petroleum (DPTR), SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD), Tesoro (TSO) and the japanese banks. I noticed that despite the big sell off on the japanese stock market, the japanese banks and specially Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) held nicely. I think the japanese market being 75% below its all time high and after a 20 year bear market is due for a big rally. If the japanese choose debt monetization as a solution for their enormous debt, stocks can post the biggest rally of a generation.
As Jim Rogers says, "buy panic and sell hysteria" is the way to get rich. We had hysteria and I shorted it, we now have a mini panic and I am preparing to close shorts and buy some distressed securities.
Have a nice trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Panic always creates opportunity and I will take advantage of the fear to buy some stocks like Applied Materials (AMAT), Novagold (NG), Delta Petroleum (DPTR), SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD), Tesoro (TSO) and the japanese banks. I noticed that despite the big sell off on the japanese stock market, the japanese banks and specially Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) held nicely. I think the japanese market being 75% below its all time high and after a 20 year bear market is due for a big rally. If the japanese choose debt monetization as a solution for their enormous debt, stocks can post the biggest rally of a generation.
As Jim Rogers says, "buy panic and sell hysteria" is the way to get rich. We had hysteria and I shorted it, we now have a mini panic and I am preparing to close shorts and buy some distressed securities.
Have a nice trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 4, 2010
We Will Close Below 10,000 Points On The Dow Jones Industrials
I think there is more downside to come in today`s session and probably even more tomorrow. Sovereign debt worries in Portugal and Spain plus a disappointing Initial Claims data will keep the sellers busy.
As I said yesterday in the post "Short And Shorting" I am still short on the S&P futures and I may take advantage of this sell off to buy some select names in the refiners and natural gas space.
Nore on this later. Fasten your seat belts, we are going for a bumpy ride.
PS: watch the video I have posted yesterday evening (topic: Oil)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
As I said yesterday in the post "Short And Shorting" I am still short on the S&P futures and I may take advantage of this sell off to buy some select names in the refiners and natural gas space.
Nore on this later. Fasten your seat belts, we are going for a bumpy ride.
PS: watch the video I have posted yesterday evening (topic: Oil)
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 3, 2010
Need A Reason To Buy Oil Futures? Are We Going Back To Triple Digit Oil Prices In 2010?
Fantastic presentation by Jeff Rubin on Peak Oil and the subsequent rise in oil prices back to triple digits in just a few months. If you need a reason to buy oil, here are a few:
Jeff Rubin is the former Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets and the author of Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller built his reputation as one of Canada's top economists based on a number of successful predictions including the housing bust of the early 90s and the rise of oil prices. In his recent book, Mr. Rubin predicts $225 per barrel oil by 2012 and with it the end of globalization, a movement towards local sourcing and a need for massive scaling up of energy efficiency.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Jeff Rubin is the former Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets and the author of Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller built his reputation as one of Canada's top economists based on a number of successful predictions including the housing bust of the early 90s and the rise of oil prices. In his recent book, Mr. Rubin predicts $225 per barrel oil by 2012 and with it the end of globalization, a movement towards local sourcing and a need for massive scaling up of energy efficiency.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Short And Shorting. US Dollar Is Still King.
I haven`t wrote much about the US dollar lately but I still think dollar is king and its moves has implications in all asset classes. The recent problems with some Eurozone contries sovereign debts has given a decisive push to the US currency.
This dollar rally is obviously very bearish for stocks and I expect further downside in the market. I am still short and shorting.
Interesting reading: Pimco`s El-Erian Is Bearish On Stocks
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
This dollar rally is obviously very bearish for stocks and I expect further downside in the market. I am still short and shorting.
Interesting reading: Pimco`s El-Erian Is Bearish On Stocks
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Tesoro (TSO) Reports Earnings And Plunges 6%. Is A Bottom Near For The Refiners?
I have been trading actively this sector over the last few months, buying the dips and selling the rallies. I am bullish long term on these names but I am taking advantage of the volatility to trade these stocks on a daily basis.
Tesoro (TSO) reported its earnings yesterday after the close and the stock is selling off pretty hard in the early going. I think that all bad news are already pretty well factored in and I am taking advantage of this sell off to buy some stock.
"Independent western U.S. refiner Tesoro Corp (TSO) said on Wednesday it expects its seven refineries to run between 69 and 75% of a combined 666,000 barrel-per-day capacity in the first quarter of 2010. A slow recovery in consumer demand, fueled by high unemployment led the San Antonio-based refiner to plan to run its refineries between 460,000 and 500,000 bpd in the first quarter.
"Demand will grow in certain markets but the key certainly for us in the United States will be domestic growth and that depends on employment," said Tesoro CEO Bruce Smith.
Tesoro plans to focus on capital discipline in the year, but wouldn't rule closing refineries, Smith said. "All things are on the table all the time"
Weighing heavily on Tesoro's returns in the fourth quarter of 2009 and early in the first quarter of 2010 is the crushed demand in California, the nation's largest gasoline market. Large inventories on the West Coast, however, are not due to imports from Asia, a Tesoro executive said.
"We really haven't been seeing anything coming to the West Coast," said Chuck Flag, vice president of system optimization for Tesoro. "Actually, the West Coast has been a net exporter of diesel."
Fears of imports crushing West Coast refining margins, which have been historically the highest in the country, began rising in late 2008 when Indian refiner Reliance Industries (RELI.BO) began running a 1.2 million-bpd refinery in Jamnagar, India.
The build in West Coast refined products inventories is due to a stockpiling ahead of planned refinery overhauls in the first quarter and a required change in gasoline blends between mid-February and mid-March across California for warmer weather."
in Reuters
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Tesoro (TSO) reported its earnings yesterday after the close and the stock is selling off pretty hard in the early going. I think that all bad news are already pretty well factored in and I am taking advantage of this sell off to buy some stock.
"Independent western U.S. refiner Tesoro Corp (TSO) said on Wednesday it expects its seven refineries to run between 69 and 75% of a combined 666,000 barrel-per-day capacity in the first quarter of 2010. A slow recovery in consumer demand, fueled by high unemployment led the San Antonio-based refiner to plan to run its refineries between 460,000 and 500,000 bpd in the first quarter.
"Demand will grow in certain markets but the key certainly for us in the United States will be domestic growth and that depends on employment," said Tesoro CEO Bruce Smith.
Tesoro plans to focus on capital discipline in the year, but wouldn't rule closing refineries, Smith said. "All things are on the table all the time"
Weighing heavily on Tesoro's returns in the fourth quarter of 2009 and early in the first quarter of 2010 is the crushed demand in California, the nation's largest gasoline market. Large inventories on the West Coast, however, are not due to imports from Asia, a Tesoro executive said.
"We really haven't been seeing anything coming to the West Coast," said Chuck Flag, vice president of system optimization for Tesoro. "Actually, the West Coast has been a net exporter of diesel."
Fears of imports crushing West Coast refining margins, which have been historically the highest in the country, began rising in late 2008 when Indian refiner Reliance Industries (RELI.BO) began running a 1.2 million-bpd refinery in Jamnagar, India.
The build in West Coast refined products inventories is due to a stockpiling ahead of planned refinery overhauls in the first quarter and a required change in gasoline blends between mid-February and mid-March across California for warmer weather."
in Reuters
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 2, 2010
Crescendo To The Employment Report.
Markets will be focused on friday`s Employment Report. Probably we will witness some sideways action and then a resume of the downtrend in equities and in commodities. I have shorted the emini S&P futures again near the closing bell and I have lighten my stock positions, specially Frontier Oil (FTO), Sunoco (SUN) and Nomura (NMR).
I have traded my daytrading oil futures system but it was a rough day. I have a 150 trades sample and I will post the results when I have 150 real trades or in about 15 days or so. If this oil futures system goes well, I will buy a Ferrari 599 GTB Fiorano later this year. I wanted to buy it last year but Enzo came and we decided to buy the beach house...
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
I have traded my daytrading oil futures system but it was a rough day. I have a 150 trades sample and I will post the results when I have 150 real trades or in about 15 days or so. If this oil futures system goes well, I will buy a Ferrari 599 GTB Fiorano later this year. I wanted to buy it last year but Enzo came and we decided to buy the beach house...
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Markets Rally From Oversold Levels. A New Leg Down Must Be Expected.
Markets rallied back nicely yesterday from very oversold levels. I am still bearish on the market and I am expecting another downleg soon. I noticed that the stocks that rallied the most yesterday were the most battered names in the commodity sector. No surprise there.
But have you noticed the strength in the japanese banks? Some of them are higher thean pre-correction levels and that says much about their inner strength. Another good relative performer is Delta Petroleum (DPTR) that managed to rally over the past week.
I would like to point out the recent drop in the Baltic Dry Index. Marc Faber underlined the recently the chinese slowdown and the drop in the Baltic Dry Index is a symptom of lower chinese activity.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
But have you noticed the strength in the japanese banks? Some of them are higher thean pre-correction levels and that says much about their inner strength. Another good relative performer is Delta Petroleum (DPTR) that managed to rally over the past week.
I would like to point out the recent drop in the Baltic Dry Index. Marc Faber underlined the recently the chinese slowdown and the drop in the Baltic Dry Index is a symptom of lower chinese activity.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Feb 1, 2010
Testing and Trading An Intraday Oil Futures System.
I don`t have much time to be active on the comments section because I have been very busy developing, testing and now trading a new intraday oil futures trading system. I have tested it over 150 trades in the last few weeks and I started trading it today.
It performed accordingly and I am looking forward to add a few more trades tomorrow. If the statistics hold, I am operating a money machine.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
It performed accordingly and I am looking forward to add a few more trades tomorrow. If the statistics hold, I am operating a money machine.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Making New Intraday Highs. Up 6%.
This is the breakout I was expecting. Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is trading at new intraday highs (1.36) and I think we can rally to 1.50 in a few days.
A trader friend emailed me today an interesting trading quote, "Good trading is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake".
I will buy a fine wine bottle for dinner. I feel that I deserve it.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
A trader friend emailed me today an interesting trading quote, "Good trading is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake".
I will buy a fine wine bottle for dinner. I feel that I deserve it.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) In A Tight Trading Range.
Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is trading in a tight trading range from 1.10 to 1.50. I am bullish on Natural gas small caps and I expect DPTR to break this trading range higher in the near future.
Remember that Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares plunged from 20 dollars per share to 1 in just 18 months.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Remember that Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares plunged from 20 dollars per share to 1 in just 18 months.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Buying These Stocks.
I closed my shorts except for Ford (F) and I will add to these names in today`s session:
Western Refining (WNR)
Frontier Oil (FTO)
Dynegy (DYN)
Delta Petroleum (DPTR)
Novagold (NG)
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (SMFJY)
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU)
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG)
There is probably more downside to come in the indexes, but I think these stocks can go up no matter what happens to the stock market.
Federer was able to win another Grand Slam. Quite remarkable.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
Western Refining (WNR)
Frontier Oil (FTO)
Dynegy (DYN)
Delta Petroleum (DPTR)
Novagold (NG)
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (SMFJY)
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (MTU)
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MFG)
There is probably more downside to come in the indexes, but I think these stocks can go up no matter what happens to the stock market.
Federer was able to win another Grand Slam. Quite remarkable.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.
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