ADP Disappoints. Is This The Beginning Of A Market Break?

Futures are printing red after a disappointing ADP Jobs Data report. Can this be the initial trigger of a market correction?

I want to share with you this interesting passage that a trader friend has emailed me:

"As I debriefed trades from many different traders this week, common themes appeared. The first and foremost was a consistent bias for taking profits too quickly. The second issue was moving stops up too tight and too early in the trade. As it turns out, they are quite closely related.

Both issues have to do with a fear of giving back profits. (That’s a blatant case of stating the obvious.) At a deeper level, both issues—taking quick profits and trying to move a trade to breakeven too quickly—have to do with needing to be right about the trade.

And fortunately, both issues have the same solution: exercising the patience to allow the trade to develop. That patience is most easily found by putting together a trading plan that clearly describes where profits will be taken and how (and if) stops will be trailed in the direction of the trade.

If we step back and take an objective look, we can see that taking profits too quickly violates the golden rule of trading—cutting losses short and letting profits run. But in the heat of battle, it’s easy to forget even the most basic of rules." DR Barton, Trading Coach

Still vacationing, but I will keep track of today`s session via my mobile.

Have a great trading day.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active traders.

Trade With Your Eyes Open

"To be a good trader, you need to trade with your eyes open, recognize real trends and turns, and not waste time or energy on regrets and wishful thinking." - Alexander Elder

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active traders.

Oil - Natural Gas Price Ratio

"The ratio of oil to natural gas has really spiked again in recent months as oil has outperformed natural gas. Last September, the ratio of oil to natural gas hit its highest level since at least 1995. After that peak, natural gas outperformed oil for a few months, but this trend reversed quickly once 2010 started. The average ratio since 1995 is 8.94, and it is currently more than twice that at 21.49." in Bespoke Investment Group

Related etf`s: United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (Public, NYSE:UNG) and United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (Public, NYSE:USO)

I am still out of my trading desk, taking a well deserved vacation with my family.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Avoiding Trading Mistakes

In Jack Schwager’s New Market Wizards, William Eckhardt said that one mistake traders make is putting too much importance on any single trade. His suggestion was to remember that any one trade is just a small part of the bigger picture and needs to be treated dispassionately. When the individual trade becomes too important, we tend to do things to make the trade work, for example we take profits too quickly or we let losses go in hopes of a return to profitability.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Market Psychology And Investor Sentiment (Video)

Great video on Investor Sentiment and Market Psychology:

I will be out of my trading desk for a couple of days.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Can You Be A Sucessful Trader?

"I think to be in the upper echelon of sucessful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It`s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn".

Michael Marcus, Trader

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Euroland Confusion And Rising 10 Year Yields Trigger A Reversal.

After trading up more than 100 points the Dow Jones reversed course and ended the session flat. The intraday reversal was caused by another failed auction in the bond market and by some confusion in Europe regarding the Greek bailout.

I added to my shorts, namely Titanium Metals (TIE), Zion Bancorp (ZION) and Radian Group Inc. (Public, NYSE:RDN). Radian was down 10% and Titanium Metals (TIE) off by almost 5%. It was a very good trading session.

I am carrying short lines on 17 stocks (Ford (F), Nordstrom (JWN), Paccar (PCAR), Boeing (BA) are some of the stocks I have shorted yesterday and today) plus the eminis futures and the Dax Futures. So a follow through on the downside would be fantastic for my P&L. I will be presenting a Trading Workshop tomorrow so my participation will be limited on the forum.

It looks like I have made some enemies on the Yahoo Finance`s TIE message board. They were all over the site today arguing that TIE was going much, much higher. Maybe it will, but not on this trip.

I will close with a fantastic trading quote from Alexander Elder, "Beginners focus on analysis, but professionals operate in a three dimensional space. They are aware of trading psychology their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets."

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Most Overbought Stock: Titanium Metals (TIE)

Titanium Metals (TIE) is the most overbought stock on the S&P 500. Its my new short pick, added yesterday evening.

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words so I will post Titanium Metals (TIE) chart for your consideration. Traders have been very bullish on this stock despite the recent US dollar strength mainly because Boeing has upgraded its orders.

I am pretty sure that all bullish items are already well priced in this stock. It looks like an easy short. Time will tell if I am proven right. I am targeting a correction to 13 USD per share.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

There Must Be A Limit To The Advances

"I knew of course, there must be a limit to the advances and an end to the crazy buying of A.O.T.-Any Old Thing-and I got bearish. But every time I sold I lost money, and if it hadn’t been that I ran darn quick I would have lost a lot more."

Jesse Livermore

This was written almost 90 years ago, but it could have been written today...couldn`t it?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Selling Short Ford (F), Nordstrom (JWN), Aetna (AET), Boeing (BA), Darden Restaurants (DRI) And Dr. Pepper (DPS)

I am selling short stocks across the board adding to the index futures that I was already carrying.

Ford (F), Nordstrom (JWN), Aetna (AET), Boeing (BA), Darden Restaurants (DRI) And Dr. Pepper (DPS) were the selected candidates and a few more will follow. If you have the time check some of those charts.

After listening to this perma bull, I just had to sell some more.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) Is Deeply Oversold. Expecting A Bounce.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) was mentioned here yesterday on the comments section. The stock has been batttered recently and is trading below its 30 day Bollinger Bands. I will probably take a position in this stock and play a rebound.

Chesapeake`s CEO spoke yesterday at the Howard Weil energy conference:

"Natural gas producer Chesapeake Energy (CHK.N) may seek to strike one or two new joint ventures for its properties, Chief Executive Aubrey McClendon said on Monday.

The company has expanded rapidly in recent years by aggressively buying properties in shale gas fields, and has struck deals worth about 11 billion USD by partnering with larger companies including Statoil ASA, BP Plc and Total SA to develop those fields.

"We probably have another joint venture or two up our sleeve," McClendon told the Howard Weil energy conference.

Chesapeake has the rights to drill on nearly three million acres in four of the most prolific shale gas fields -- Haynesville, Marcellus, Barnett and Fayetteville -- as well as significant holdings in several other fields.

McClendon said the company's portfolio would help propel its growth, even with the pullback in natural gas prices recently.

"You're going to look at a company three years from now that's at least 50 percent bigger," he said." in Reuters

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Picking A Short Term Bottom On Natural Gas Futures.

I am buying May Natural Gas Futures for a short term rebound. The Natural Gas Futures can`t even rally to its 50 hour moving average in more than 1 month. If that isn`t an oversold market begging for a short squeeze I don`t know what is.

I just bought at 4.16 on the May contract. Front month is trading at 4.10. I rarely trade natural gas, but I did a very good trade last year when Natural Gas Futures were trading at 2.50.

Besides seasonality is favourable: Seasonality Graph

The United States Natural Gas Fund price chart is even more scary.

Related etf`s: United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (Public, NYSE:UNG)

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

I Can Hear The Sound Of Cracking Markets.

Oil is down over 2 dollars per barrel and european equities are down over 1% but extending their losses.

Bears will be vindicated in the next few sessions. I am "all in" short and I am loving the sound of cracking markets. And the party is yet to begin.

The healthcare bill and the China-US tensions are putting equities under pressure. We can have a 200 points down day on the Dow Jones Industrials today.

I have no longs for the time being.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Healthcare Bill And China Tensions Are Putting Pressure On Equities

I sense this will be a fantastic trading week.

The healthcare bill and the China-US tensions are putting equities under pressure. We can have a 200 points down day on the Dow Jones Industrials today.

Oil is also flirting with the 80 dollar support. It will surely break it later today.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

SandRidge Energy (SD): A Takeover Target?

Mad Money`s Jim Cramer mentioned SandRidge Energy (SD) as a potential takeover target:

"With major oil and coal companies expanding their natural gas holdings, Cramer is looking for the next takeover target. He advised viewers to think about companies in terms of how much they can be worth if taken over, not on their current stock prices. While natural gas prices are low, Cramer likes the fact Sandridge Energy (SD) has 48% natural gas and 52% oil as a hedge. The company has 1.3 trillion cubic feet of reserves in West Texas, Permian Basin and Oklahoma, so why is the stock trading at just $7.44. Sandridge natural gas reserves aren't hedged after 2010 and it has $2.59 billion in debt. However Sandridge is "priced for disaster" but is likely to be "headed for success" given its huge reserves. Even with its problems, the average target price for Sandridge is $12.50, 70% higher than where it is now."

While I rate Jim Cramer`s stock comments as junk, I thought it was interesting to post his thoughts on a stock we are following.

Check the new item on this blog. We will help children with cancer via Paypal donations. The idea is for all of us to donate a portion of our winning trades once in a while.

Remember Gustavo Kuerten, the brazilian tennis player? He donated 200 USD for each game we won on the tour to a similar cause. I have always admired him for that.

As you know I am "all in" short via emini S&P Futures and via Dax Futures. I have the sense that will be a fantastic trading week for shorts. Futures just opened on the Globex session and are printing red.


Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Interesting Trading Quiz By Don Miller

Don Miller is a professional Emini S&P Futures daytrader. I always like to keep track of his blog (its more of a diary than a trading blog like this) and I found this very interesting passage that I would like to share with you:

"This morning, I spoke with a trader who emailed me recently explaining how he has struggled for ten years while spending a ton on every seminar in the biz. After chatting with him for only a few minutes, I asked him two simple questions -- already knowing the answers ahead of time. The first was, "Do you ever think about the person on the other side of your trade?" (Real trader & poker player cardinal rule #1). The second was, "Do you ever add to your position when the market proves you right, even if by just a tick or two?" (Real trader & poker player cardinal rule #2). His responses to both were no.

Ten years. Tens of thousands in seminars. Hundreds of patterns and their silly names. All missing the fundamental essence of real trading. Where have we in this industry gone so wrong??"

Don Miller in Don Miller Journal

I have never met Don, but I would really like to share some trading thoughts with him.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

The Beginning Of The Bear Market. Livermore Quote.

I think this Livermore`s quote is most appropriate for the current state of things:

"Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market… I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market it is not well to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing."

Jesse Livermore

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

93% Of Market Strategist Expect The Rally To Keep On Going

Institutional Chief Market Strategists are still very bullish on the US stock market and 93% expect the S&P 500 to rally higher:

"The latest compilation of analyst estimates and year-end targets is now calling for substantially higher earnings and equity prices. Of the 13 major banks, JUST ONE (Andrew Garthwaite of Credit Suisse) is calling for the S&P 500 to finish the year below the current level."

As I told you yesterday I sold all my longs and I am focusing exclusively on the short side. I am short Dax Futures, Emini S&P Futures and trading my Oil Futures system in parallel.

I had a good week overall, and a very good week as far as oil futures trading is concerned. I placed a few intraday bets on my own, technical plays going along the line of least resistance with targets/stops ranging from 0.50 dollar per contract to 0.75 and I had a very good hit rate.

Have a great weekend. I think we will have a wild ride next week.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Finally A Correction.

This correction was long overdue. I am still "all in" short and closed all my longs over the last few days and the remaining on the opening bell.

My oil system traded on the short side today and caught most of the move. It has been a steady income provider. I like to trade some systems in parallel because they smooth my equity curve.

Back to the markets, I think there is only one side to play from here on, and that is the short side. Equities, commodities...the risk trade is probably over. Time will tell.

For those of you feeling like Superman:

Fantastic music track.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Delta Petroleum (DPTR), Natural Gas And A Ressurgent Rivalry

I sold half of my Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares yesterday and I will probably sell the remainder shares in the next few trading sessions and look for another deals. It paid to wait and to have the courage of my convictions. Remember I was in this stock (moving in and out a few times) for over 4 months.

I am looking into SandRidge Energy (SD) again, looking to increase my position with this new raised liquidity. But I am not in a hurry because I am expecting a big market correction and I will probably manage to buy SandRidge Energy (SD) under 7 USD per share.

Natural Gas futures hit a 5 month closing low yesterday and United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (Public, NYSE:UNG) actually made a new 52 week low. Some of the natural gas related stocks were hard hit like Chesapeake Energy Corporation (Public, NYSE:CHK) down 5% and SandRidge Energy Inc. (Public, NYSE:SD) down 3.6%. There will be great opportunities in this space in the near future.

Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., was on Bloomberg TV discussing the outlook for natural gas and crude oil prices. (VIDEO LINK)

I thought the Agassi/ Sampras rivalry was over but I was completely mistaken. Watch this amazing video:



Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Update On Delta Petroleum (DPTR): Rallying 33%

Delta Petroleum (DPTR) action:
Pre-market: 1.81 +0.45 (33.09%)
Mar 18, 9:12AM EDT
NASDAQ real-time data

What a jackpot. This will be my best trading day so far this year.

Maybe I can be a little extravagant on a fine bottle of wine later today. Any suggestions?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Delta Petroleum (DPTR): Up 10% On Deal. Can It Rally Further?

Delta Petroleum (DPTR) finally discloses the deal. Delta is selling a 37.5% non-operated working interest in the Company's Vega Area assets located in the Piceance Basin for total consideration of 400 million dollars.

Pre-market is bullish, the stock is trading up 10%. I am well positioned to capitalize on an upmove as I am carrying a lot of stock. But I am not sure how the market will react, so I am ready to act and act fast, one way or the way. I may add further and double my position or retreat and take a small profit.

I am carrying at an average price of 1.32.

DENVER, March 18, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Delta Petroleum Corporation (Delta) (DPTR 1.48, +0.12, +8.82%) , an independent oil and gas exploration and development company, announced it has entered into a non-binding letter of intent with Opon International LLC (Opon) to sell a 37.5% non-operated working interest in the Company's Vega Area assets located in the Piceance Basin for total consideration of $400 million. It is expected that $225 million of the total consideration will be used by Delta for the development of the Vega Area over the next three years. Delta intends to use the remainder of the total consideration for its balance sheet obligations and general working capital purposes.

Delta has also agreed to issue to Opon at closing, warrants to purchase 13.3 million shares of Delta common stock at $1.50 per share and 5.7 million shares at $3.50 per share. Delta will provide further details of the transaction upon the execution by Delta and Opon of definitive agreements. The letter of intent is subject to customary due diligence, negotiation and execution of definitive binding agreements. This offer is contingent upon the buyer's ability to arrange financing. Delta has granted Opon a 60-day exclusive period to finalize the transaction, which is expected to close on or before June 1, 2010. Delta will retain operations of the Vega Area subject to a joint venture agreement with Opon.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

This Streak Will End Today.

The Pragmatic Capitalist posted this chart yesterday with a suggestive title, "YOU CAN’T LOSE IN THIS MARKET".

I am short S&P and Dax Futures.

I will be looking for an intraday play later today. The last two did great, BioTime, Inc. (Public, AMEX:BTIM) and VirnetX Holding Corporation (Public, AMEX:VHC).

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Veteran Trader Says Trading Is For "Old" Men

I have found this very interesting trading reflection by a veteran trader in his blog:

"I discovered, from the analysis of over 25,000 people, that men who succeed in an outstanding way, seldom do so before the age of forty, and more often they do not strike their real pace until they are well beyond the age of fifty." Napoleon Hill, Think & Grow Rich

History is full of noted examples of such. Sam Walton was 43 years old when he started Wal-Mart. Teddy Roosevelt was 43 when he took office. Vince Lombardi was 45 when he took the head coaching job with the Green Bay Packers. Leonardo da Vinci was in his forties when he did the Last Supper and his fifties when he completed the Mona Lisa. Ronald Reagan was in his fifties when he started his real career as a politician. George Patton was 60 when he took over command of the 2nd Armored Division, and all of his noted work came after that.

Some say trading is a young person's game, including someone a few years ago who was convinced that this discretionary trader & educator in his late 40s couldn't compete with young guns and black boxes. Essentially, he "dared" me to put my money where my mouth was and make a million dollars in less than a year.

Turned out he was right.

He undershot the target by about 60%.

in Don Miller`s Trading Journal

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Pimco`s El-Erian Says The FED Is Already Tightning Monetary policy

I am posting these comments from El Erian because I think exactly the same thing. The Fed is tightning without moving interest rates. Same thing happened in Japan during the nineties. If you are interested in the theme I suggest you read "The Princes Of Yen" from Richard Werner.

"The end of the Federal Reserve's program of purchasing $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities at the end of March is a form of tightening monetary policy, the chief of the largest U.S. bond fund manager said on Tuesday.

Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co, or PIMCO, said the end of the Fed's mortgage program, one of the U.S. central bank's major support programs, signals a form of credit tightening." in CNBC

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Closed Biotime (BTIM). Still Short And Getting Hurt.

My Biotime (BTIM) trade is what I call a lucky trade. I bought into strength at mid session and sold it 10% higher near the highs of the day just before a mild late day reversal. I was lucky in my exit timing but that trade felt good. I was agonizing over my underwater shorts, so that additional and unexpected income was welcome.

I do not need much of a correction to be back in the money but the waiting is killing me. I will take the day to finalize some technical research.

For the oil traders, remember that OPEC meets today in Vienna. No real news expected from there.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Bought BioTime (BTIM). This Can Be A Fantastic Story.

I am very busy, so I don`t really have much time to write. But I want to keep you posted that I have just bought a few thousand shares of BioTime, Inc. (Public, AMEX:BTIM) at 7.32.

"Shares of BioTime shot up over 33 percent this morning after investors got a whiff of a newly published scientific paper in which the biotech company says it was able to reverse the aging process in cells. And scientists for the company say the work has big implications for the development of a new generation of cell-based therapies that can target age-related degenerative diseases."

This is obviously a prime takeover target in an industry that is always keen to buy new drugs and new medical developments. The stocks are basically held by insiders and the mutual funds haven`t arrived to the party yet.

Of course, this is a very risky bet but I am feeling good about it.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

The Best Online Trading Platform For You

Good article on Online Trading Platforms.

As you know I use Interactive Brokers (IBKR).

Related Stocks: Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:IBKR), E TRADE Financial Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:ETFC), TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (Public, NASDAQ:AMTD), TradeStation Group, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:TRAD), optionsXpress Holdings, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:OXPS)

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

S&P 500 Index Tracker Is Up 12 Days In a Row.

"With no down days since February, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY) is now riding a twelve-day winning streak. Since SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY) began trading in 1993, the only other period where the ETF had a twelve-day winning streak was back in September 1995. Even though SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY) has been up for twelve straight days, the magnitude of the gain we have seen over that period is probably a lot less (4.4%) than most people would have expected." in Bespoke Investment Group

He have the FOMC statement (there are no rate announcements these days) later today. Normally indexes trade up till 2.15 pm ET. The exception to this rule was in the last FED meeting where the Dow was losing about 50 points prior to the statement.

Have a great trading day.

PS: the majority asked for a return to the dark background. I must admit that I prefer it too.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Mutual Funds Have No Cash To Keep Buying This Rally. Who`s Left To Buy?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

China`s Economic Slowdown

The Shanghai Composite keeps selling off and is now trading below 3,000 points and its down almost 10% year to date. Marc Faber, Jim Chanos and many others have been warning investors about a possible collapse in the chinese economy and now Westpac Bank in Australia joins the group adding some fresh data:

“Back on the 11th Feb we noted ‘Chinese data set to slow, but not abruptly’. Four weeks later, we wonder whether a more apt title might have been ‘Chinese data set to slow, abruptly’. Obviously, the Chinese LEI and CEI are only available with a significant lag while our Chinese pulse is available real time, so one can debate how synchronous the charts are. However, at face value there seems to be a reasonable relationship between LEI/CEI and the pulse. That is when the LEI crosses over the CEI, we tend to see major shifts in Chinese data momentum. And we certainly have seen a sharp shift in data momentum. Back in November/December, our Chinese data pulse was running super white hot at 94%. Last week, our Chinese pulse hit 39% – the lowest since March 13 2009.”

I am still short on S&P and Dax futures and even if we can rally a few more points, the next big move will be down. I am positioning accordingly.

Have a great trading day.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

SandRidge Energy (SD) Rallies Back. Crosses The 8 Mark.

After a sell-off in response to a disappointing earnigs report, SandRidge Energy (SD) rallied back to 8.22 after having touched the low 7`s last week. I added some shares at lower levels and I already sitting on a winner. The problem is I am getting increasingly bearish on stocks overall and I do not feel very confortable holding any longs.

But SandRidge Energy (SD) and the japanese banks are so depressed that I am going to keep them anyway.

Marc Faber re-stated his bullishness on the japanese stock market and Mike "Mish" Shedlock, an investment advisor at SitkaPacific Capital Management, that was interviewed alongside Marc aslo expressed some bullsih views on Japan. Its the true contrarian play, isn`t it?

Recommended Reading: Marc Faber: Bullish On Japan

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Is This An Apotheotic Top In Stocks?

"While the S&P 500 is up in nine of the last ten days, the ETF that tracks the index (SPY) is now up ten days in a row. Since SPY started trading back in 1993, there has only been one other period where the ETF was up more than ten straight days. That streak came in September 1995, when SPY had twelve straight up days in a row." in Bespoke

I am "all in" short.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Trading Thought.

For all that have been wrong about the market direction including myself I leave this simple thought:

"You don`t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows" Bob Dylan

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

S&P Makes A New Bull Market High

The S&P made a new bull market high yesterday:

"The S&P 500 made a new bull market closing high today. Sure, it was by 0.01 points (1,150.24 vs. 1,150.23), but it's still a new high! We'll obviously need to see some follow-through over the next couple of days to confirm the breakout, and if we get it, then the next level of significant resistance is right around 1,200. The pre-Lehman S&P 500 level that many are looking for is 1,250, which is a gain of 8.70% from here." in Bespoke

Delta Petroleum (DPTR) action was pretty disappointing yesterday. After gapping up 6%, it traded down throughout the day closing 5% lower. I have reduced my position during the day, took some profits but I am still holding a decent long position. Its a schizophrenic stock to say the very least.

On the other hand SandRidge Energy (SD) is beginning to show some life and had its best close since the earnings release. I will take a 3 day weekend, so I am leaving early today, right after the Retail Sales report.

Have a great trading day.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Surging In Pre-Market. Earnings Release.

Delta Petroleum (DPTR) shares were surging 9% a few minutes ago after the earnings results came out:

DENVER, March 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Delta Petroleum Corporation (Delta or the Company) (Nasdaq: DPTR), an independent oil and gas exploration and development company, today announced its financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full year 2009.

John Wallace, Delta's President and COO stated, "We are pleased to report our financial results for the full year 2009 and for the fourth quarter of 2009. Clearly, 2009 proved to be a very challenging year for Delta beginning with the drop in natural gas prices during the first half of the year, and further compounded by liquidity and bank covenant concerns for much of the year. Yet, I am very pleased with how far we have come and, from an operational and liquidity perspective, how much we improved during the latter half of the year. Cash flow provided by operating activities totaled $61.0 million for the fourth quarter, which is up meaningfully over the third quarter. The fourth quarter of 2009 was the third consecutive quarter of substantial growth in EBITDAX (a non-GAAP measure), up 134% from third quarter levels. We have also been able to reduce our lease operating expenses to $1.26 per Mcfe for the fourth quarter, down 14% from the third quarter 2009. More importantly, the EBITDAX for the fourth quarter is sufficient to be in compliance with the leverage ratio covenant of our senior credit facility. While we obtained waivers for the first quarter of 2010, under the current commodity price forward curve, our current financial projections suggest that we will be in compliance with our financial covenants for the remainder of 2010.

"Our liquidity situation has also improved materially, aided in no small part by the offshore litigation settlement proceeds received from the federal government at the end of the year, which netted approximately $48.7 million to Delta. While the proceeds are shown as cash on the December 31, 2009 balance sheet, subsequent to year-end, the proceeds of the settlement were used to reduce borrowings under our senior credit facility. With borrowing base availability and cash on hand, our liquidity position at December 31, 2009 was $102 million and is approximately $84 million as of today. Once the semi-annual borrowing base redetermination and the strategic alternatives process are completed we will announce our plans to recommence our drilling program in the Vega Area.

"Regarding our proved reserves for year-end 2009, the base price used for the calculation was $3.03 per MMBtu for natural gas (the average of the first day of the month prices in 2009 for Colorado Interstate Gas), which resulted in proved reserves of 154 Bcfe. If we calculated our proved reserves based upon year-end CIG pricing of $5.54 per MMBtu for natural gas in accordance with the SEC's former reserve reporting rules, our year-end proved reserves would have been approximately 830 Bcfe.


"Given how challenging our situation was, I can't help but be proud of how far we've come and where we stand today."

STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES UPDATE

As previously announced on November 30, 2009, Delta retained Morgan Stanley and Evercore Partners to evaluate and advise the Board of Directors on strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value. The process is in its advanced stages and the Company does not expect to make further public comment regarding the process until the Board of Directors has approved a specific transaction or otherwise determines that disclosure of significant developments, if any, is appropriate.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Conference Call. Refiners Keep Rallying.

Delta Petroleum will host its 4Q Earnings Conference Call later today:

"Delta Petroleum Corporation (Nasdaq: DPTR) announced that it will host an investor conference call on Thursday, March 11, 2010 at 12:00 noon ET to discuss operating results for the fourth quarter and full year 2009."

There was another big energy deal this morning, "BP Buying Devon Energy Assets for $7 Billion". I think this is a trend to continue and that one of the reasons that I am holding several positions in the energy sector inclusing SandRidge Energy, Delta Petroleum and the refiners. Have you been following the refiners lately? They are in rally mode. Western Refining (WNR) was the best performer in the group yesterday, rallying over 6%. Tesoro (TSO), Valero (VLO) and Frontier Oil (FTO) rallied nicely as well. I had seen this coming and I am sitting tight on them.

Man UTD crushed AC Milan last night and Real Madrid is out of the CL. That was quite a surprise. Well done, OL. Well done.

Link: Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Price Chart

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Natural Gas Seasonality.

Interesting reading: Natural Gas Seasonality: Time To Buy


SandRidge Energy (SD) is acting better in the last 3 days or so. Still bullish and sitting tight.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

OPEC, Delta Petroleum And New Highs For The S&P 500 Index.

OPEC is unsure that the world economy can keep its recovery tranjectory without government support:

"OPEC say that crude consumption will rise this year, but in the fine print of its statement, the cartel undercuts its own prediction.

OPEC expects world oil demand to grow 900,000 barrels a day in 2010. That is an upward revision of 100,000 barrels a day from the previous forecast. “These stimulus plans have already done a great job of jump-starting many sectors of the economy, including energy,” a spokesman said referring to government financial intervention to reverse GDP contraction in large nations.

But, the again, “questions remain as to how long governments will be able to afford supporting their economies. Should this support diminish, then world oil demand would of course be impacted.”" in 24/7 Wall Street

The S&P is getting very close to new highs for this bull market. It may break into new highs but I sure think its a fake move. The same thing happened in reverse in the March lows. It was a low made with fewer stocks making new lows and this time we will print a new high, but with substancially less stocks in new highs ground. I will wait patiently to see how this unfolds.

Delta Petroleum will release its earnings and host its conference call tomorrow.

I will leave you with a fantastic music track, this time in video format. Enjoy.



Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Warning Signals: Bulls Are Full Of Themselves.

Interesting note on market sentiment:

"The sentiment signals are starting to stack up against the bulls. Last week Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch reported that Advisory bullishness was “dangerously high”. He reports that bullishness hasn’t been this high since before the 2007 market highs"

in The Pragmatic Capitalist

I am still short on oil futures, long US dollars and short stock index futures.

Have a great trading day. It may be a good day to post the cartoon again...

And speaking about being full of themselves, what about this?

I also want to link this article about an impending stock market top.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Funds Bidding Up Oil. A Reversal In Sight?

"We feel that the funds are now setting on a near record net long holding that will eventually prompt a sharp downside reversal on any equity weakness or gasoline fundamentals that could prove too bearish to ignore."

Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates

Related ETF`s: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO)

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Pit Bull: Trading With The Exponential Moving Average

I was recommending a few books to a trader friend and "Pit Bull: Lessons From Wall Street`s Champion Trader" came to mind. As I picked it up to lend it it to my friend, I opened it in page 271, where I had underlined from a previous reading:

"The 10 day exponential moving average (EMA) is my favourite indicator to determine the major trend. I call this "red light, green light" because it is imperative in trading to remain on the correct side of moving average to give yourself the best probability of sucess. When you are trading above the 10 day, you have the green light, the market is in positive mode and you should be thinking buy. Conversely, trading below the average is a red light. The market is in a negative mode and you should be thinking sell. That does not mean you should never buy when you have a red light, but if you do, it is critical that you have an extremely good reason for taking that position."

And Marty Schwartz continues,

"The hardest point to make a trade is when the prices are hovering at the value of the moving average. This is the point that offers most profit potential, but also has the greatest risk. Even though you experience whipsaws, the profit potential in a trend move can be enormous. For instance the market could be trading for several days below the EMA and then start heading back up, getting closer to the EMA. If it is able to close over it, this is often the beginning of a trend change and you are one of the first to ride the young, new, and powerful positive trend. But often, the EMA is a repellent and the price action will turn back down once it has kissed the EMA from below. It is the spot where things are hanging in the balance."

The Pit Bull trader finally adds,

"So my moving averages are the key to being on the right side of the trade: going long when the market is in positive mode. The next step is picking an entry point and risk amount. What I am usually looking for is a turn, an inflection point - and it is at this point where your moneymaking opportunity is the greatest, because you are one of the first traders to identify the change in trend. I use channel lines and oscillators to help me pick levels and identify these situations."

I am sharing this because while Marty Schwartz was a discretionary trader, he organized his data in such a way that cleared, freed from pollution or cloudiness his market views. Remember that this was one fundamental analyst turned into a money machine technical trader. I highly recommend reading this book. It was written in 1998, but it is as useful as if it was written today.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Insiders Buying SandRidge Energy (SD) Stocks

It seems that SandRidge Energy (SD) insiders have been accumulating its shares on weakness. Insiders join Boone Pickens and Soros Fund who had also bought the stock recently:

"As the stock was trading at less than 50 percent of its 52-week high, Gilliland Bill A, Director at SandRidge Energy, Inc. has reported buying 694,420 USD today. Over the last four weeks insiders at SandRidge Energy, Inc. (SD) have bought more than $1.55M" in Trading Markets.com

I have also accumulated a few more shares yesterday taking advantage of the weakness in the sector. If I keep buying at this rate I will soon be a company insider as well...

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Boone Pickens On Natural Gas (Video)

Boone Pickens urges the US to use more Natural Gas. He has been accumulating some natural gas related stocks like SandRidge Energy (SD) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK).

Boone Pickens said, "You've got 4,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas—that makes us number one in the world. We're going to be fools, we'll be identified as the dumbest people in the world if we don't capitalize on this resource and replace OPEC oil."

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Western Refining (WNR) Rallies On Earnings. Sandridge Energy (SD) Sinks Again.

I have added to Western Refining (WNR) after its upbeat earnings release. Western Refining beat the street on eanings and on revenues and its CEO said that margins were improving. Add to that a gigantic short interest in the stock and you have enough fuel for a multiday rally. I am looking for an upmove to the 5.50 - 6.00 dollars area. Actually all the refiners have been performing very well in the last few trading sessions. Maybe a short term bottom is in.

SandRidge Energy (SD) keeps showing demoniacal activity and its falling every day. I took advantage of today`s weakness (not only on SD, but in all natural gas stocks like Chesapeake Energy (CHK) down 2.3% and Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE:SWN) down 4%) and bought a few more shares. I am holding a big, big position now.

I was also impressed with the US stock market resilience today. After a 2,5% drop in Shanghai I expected some follow through in the US. It happened in the euro, and to a smaller extent in oil (down 0,.5 dollars) but the strength in stocks was impressive. Don`t forget we will have the Employment Report tomorrow before the opening bell.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Shorting Oil, Euro And Emini S&P Futures.

"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Is The Euro Currency Ready For A Bounce?

After a sharp correction from 1.51 to 1.34 the euro currency seems to be stabilizing and several voices are calling for a rebound. Yesterday Marc Faber told Bloomberg, "The euro made a new high against the US Dollar at 1.51 on November 25th, 2009 and it was a false breakout move coming out of a wedge. And then we had the big correction down into 1.34. In other words, the US dollar strengthened considerably. Now the euro is very oversold and the news have been horrible. Everything you have read has been a disaster for the eurozone and I think the euro now can rebound to 1.40 before it goes lower."

Another interesting note is that currency speculation bets that the dollar will rise against the euro currency increased to the highest level since the week of September 16, 2008, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

Please share your thoughts.

Check the new Ferrari 599, a 200mph electric hybrid vehicle that aims to cut pollution and fuel consumption while retaining the brand's breathtaking acceleration and performance.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Goldman Sachs Upgrades Natural Gas

It is the first time that I quote Jim Cramer on this website, but his comments about natural gas yesterday are very relevant as I have been involved in several natural gas related companies like SandRidge Energy (SD) and Delta Petroleum (DPTR):

"Cramer said the decision by Goldman Sachs to upgrade natural gas is “incredibly interesting” because this may indicate some type of nat gas legislation coming out of Washington. Adding, “you don’t make this call, unless you have some conviction.”"

Have a great trading day.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Delta Petroleum (DPTR) Rallies And Jumps Through Resistance

After the SandRidge Energy (SD) earnings disappointment, Delta Petroleum (DPTR) is rallying, jumping through resistance. It printed 1.53 a few minutes ago and I think a move to 2.00 is in the cards.

Its great to see this stock rallying making up for the SD loss last Friday.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Peter Lynch: "The Most Important Organ In The Body As Far As The Stock Market Is Concerned Is The Guts, Not The Head"

Peter Lynch, described brilliantly what it takes to succeed in stock market investing:

"The most important organ in the body as far as the stock market is concerned is the guts, not the head. Anyone can acquire the know-how for analyzing stocks. We've had many recessions on average once every eighteen months we have had a 10% fall on the stock market over the past 50 years, and once every five years we have had a fall of 20-30%, which is called a bear market. Usually, this goes along with bad news, with your neighbor who lost his job, and with the value of your house that falls. The news is bad, and so you get out of the market, and when you read in the newspaper that the situation has improved, you go back in.

You buy when you see that things are fine, and sell when you see that they are bad. But that's not the way. You have to decide what position in shares you will be comfortable with, and to understand that even in a bear market, time is on your side. What the market will do for a period of a year ahead is random. If you need the money for your child for college or for a wedding in a year's time, it's important that you should know that the market will be random over that year. But if you're looking at an investment range of 10 or 20 years, company profits will be on your side, and stock prices will be higher.

You have to understand what you're doing and recognize the fact that things can go wrong. Recessions happen, and right at the point that things seem gloomiest, people withdraw their money from the market, and just then the market start to climb. Look at the latest rally that we have had since March. The economy still isn't sufficiently stable. We have an unemployment rate higher than 10%, and the recovery in many areas of the economy is fragile, but we had an impressive rally nevertheless. The stock market looks to the future and not to the past. The tendency of people to run when the situation is bad and go in only when it's good is a good formula for losing money." in Globes (Israeli Business Newspaper)

Futures are green this morning with optimism about a Greece bailout from the European Union. Oil is trading over 80 dollars a barrel again.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.