Sep 30, 2010

If It Wasn`t Oil, The Session Would Have Been Perfect...

I was scared earlier on when the economic data points came out, all higher then expectations (remember, I was short ES). I thought to myself, "if the indexes do not reverse I am going to have the worst trading session of the year...". But I was calm and detached, and when I saw the hesitations in the morning rally, plus some timid dollar rallies, I stepped in and sold a few more eMini`s. It was the only play possible.

Unfortunately, the oil rally did not abate and I left a few gold bars in the oil pits today. Someone is buying Moet&Chandon on me tonight. We can`t always win, can we? It was a rough day. I will need 5 or more trading sessions to get back...

I closed almost all my positions as I want to start trading tomorrow with a clean sheet. No bias, no prepositions.


I will leave you with  "El Bobo" from Pablo Picasso.



Sep 29, 2010

I Am Short S&P Futures, Oil And Long The Dollar. So Help Me God.

A subscriber wrote me earlier today asking me if it was a good time to buy the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), the VIX tracker. Well, I certainly expect the volatility to rise but I don`t think that playing it through the VXX is the best way to benefit from it... But that isn`t the story I want to tell you.

That email conversation stood in my mind through out the day and I checked the VXX a few more times then normal (the VXX is not one of my usual indicators to read the market) and I noticed that the eMini S&P Futures were breaking out to new highs and the VXX was also rising. That is highly uncommon.

I was already short oil futures (and feeling the pain) so I decided to test the market selling a few dozen eMini S&P Futures with a tight stop. My reasoning was, "well, let`s who`s right, the VXX or the eminis?..."

Then, I checked the signals of the daily trading system, I read a few incoming messages and when I looked to the platform again I was already up 10,000 USD or so. Not bad for a "test".

So, what I would really like to tell you, is that if it wasn`t for that early email from Michael, I would not have shorted the market the way I did. In this business, everything we hear, everything we read and everything we say, counts. It affects your decision making process and thus the outcome.

So, thanks Michael.

PS: I don`t have time to elaborate on the US dollar long trade and on the Oil Futures short, but those trading notes were sent to the subscribers earlier;


I will leave you with a true masterpiece:

Faber Sees Turbulence Ahead. So Do I.

"I would rather think that after a strong month of September, when everybody was expecting September to be a horrible month, October and November may be bad months.", Marc Faber told The Economic Times today. I totally agree with his views.

Markets are overbought, bullishness in equities and gold is rampant... I see turbulence ahead. Fasten your seatbelts.
Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM)

US Government Bonds: The Bubble - No Bubble Discussion

“We note that the price action of bonds it is very different from the bubbles in other asset classes we have seen over the last 30 years. The six-month US bond return is 1.9 standard deviations above norm, compared to an average of 5.9 standard deviations during previous bubbles.”

Source: Credit Suisse Research

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

Business Roundtable CEO Survey: Sales Forecasts Are Down From Last Quarter

Sep 28, 2010

Red Bull Trading.

I was involved in several stocks and futures today both from the long and short side. I was short Pride (PDE) and MetroPCS Communications, Inc. (PCS) from yesterday`s session and I closed them on the first hour weakness, I traded oil from the short side, shorting it all the away up and I have even traded a downside breakout in Corn (ZC Futures).

I have done more then 30 trades, way above average... I was a bit hyperactive today, but the session was a very good one overall. I drunk a Red Bull early in the morning and that probably had its effects. I love trading on Red Bull.

My pick for the readers worked very well with NetFlix (NFLX) dropping 1.90% in a rising market. It does not get much better then that.

It Won`t Kill You To Read Bill Gross` Monthly Investment Letter

I am not a big fan of Bill Gross, and I have even lost money in the past chasing trades relating to his well thought arguments... Even though it won`t kill you to read a summary of his monthly letter:

"What is more likely is a policy resort to reflation on a multitude of policy fronts: low interest rates and quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, near double-digit deficits as a percentage of GDP from Washington. What the U.S. economy needs to do in order to return to the “old” normal is to recreate nominal GDP growth of 5%, the majority of which likely comes from inflation. Inflation is the classic “coin shaving” technique of government since the Roman Empire. In modern parlance, you print money faster than required, pray that the private sector will spend it to generate investment and consumption, and then worry about the consequences in a later decade. Ditto for deficits and fiscal policy. It’s that prayer, however, which the financial markets are now doubting, resembling circumstances which in part are reminiscent of the lost decades in Japan since the early 1990s. If the private sector – through undue caution and braking demographic influences –refuses to take the bait, the reflationary trap will never snap shut.


Investors will likely not know whether the mouse has grabbed for the cheese for several years forward. In the meantime, they are faced with 2.5% yielding bonds and stocks staring straight into new normal real growth rates of 2% or less. There is no 8% there for pension funds. There are no stocks for the long run at 12% returns. And the most likely consequence of stimulative government policies that strain to get us there will be a declining dollar and a lower standard of living. Stan Druckenmiller is leaving, and with good reason. A future of low investment returns, and a heap of trouble for those expecting more, is what lies ahead."


Bill Gross, Monthly Investment Newsletter



By the way, Netflix (NFLX) is doing just as we predicted. Its trading down 1.8% as we speak.

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

Sep 27, 2010

NetFlix (NFLX) Is Defying Gravity. TIme For A Correction?

Netflix (NFLX) has rallied for 6 straight sessions. It`s now up 31% in the last 30 days. That is quite a rally isn`t it?

Its time to point your cannon to the short side of this high flying, up, up and away stock. On average this stock fell over 2% on the session after such a run.  This looks like a promising short term trade.

I will leave you with my favourite Paul Cézanne painting, "The Card Players". beautiful, isn`t it?

Sep 24, 2010

Going Into The Weekend Feeling Good About My Trading.

My tight stop was hit on the eMini S&P futures, so I was able to preserve most of my winnings (normally I do not even use stops, but I wanted to preserve my hard earned profits on that short line as I wrote on yesterday`s post). But this sudden rally has pushed my SPY short calls almost to my entry level. That profit is almost gone and in risk of turning into a loss...

Even though it was a very good week overall.

It seems like the daily system will have its day in the sun today. Both stocks are rallying nicely, and after a sub-par performance early in the week, we are quickly approach new highs (of, course if the market does not reverse, which seems highly unlikely).

I am still going to make a few intraday trades, but I am not planning on doing nothing big. I noticed gold stocks were selling off despite the market`s strength. Maybe I will give it a shot on the downside...

I will leave you with "A Very Sad Song",

Fantastic sound from The Sound Of Arrows.

There will be plenty of trading opportunities next week. Stay focused, stay fresh. Enjoy your weekend.

Financials Will Play A Role In This Market.

Despite the recent stock market rally, the financials have been lagging the market for a long time now. If this breakout on the upside is for real (I don`t think it is) the financials will sooner or later have to participate in it.
(financials relative performance versus the market)

But there`s some disparity when we analyse the big banks 3 month performance. While Bank Of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) have traded down over the last 3 months, down 15 and 8 percent respectively, JP Morgan (JPM) has been clearly outperforming the group with a 0.5% rise in the same period.

The financials can very well have the answer to the million dollar question,"Is this rally for real?"

Its art week here on the Oil Trader`s Blog, so I will leave today with another oil on canvas, this time from Vieira da Silva. She is considered to be one of the most important Post-War abstract artists.  

PS: just sent a list of stocks to play for a 2-3 day swing play, both on the long and short side of the market;  

Sep 23, 2010

The Goal Of A Sucessful Trader.

"The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary."

Alexander Elder

This is exactly how I approach trading. I remember what an old english football manager, Sir Bobby Robson, told his players before an important european cup match: "Don`t be obsessed with scoring goals. Play at ease and the opportunities will come naturally."

I am still short S&P Futures and calls but I am running a tight stop on the futures. I plan to hold the options to the expiration. I am still holding my Gold short calls, but the conviction in that trade is diminishing rapidly...

The market is volatile and active again and I am sure there will be plenty of opportunities going forward.

Rosenberg On The Stock Market

"It is truly difficult to come up with an explanation for the breakout, which in turn makes it difficult to ascertain its veracity. But the price action is undeniable and the bulls are in fact winning the battle in September, a typically negative seasonal month, after a bloody August."

David Rosenberg, economist and strategist, Gluskin Sheff

Still Short. Not Only Short, But Short From The Top.

I sold short S&P Futures on the FOMC statement spike. That was the exact top of this market run so far. I was short SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) calls and I added to that short as well. Now I am reaping the rewards of that bold move.

I found this interesting research on Bespoke,

"The S&P 500 is still on pace to have its best September since 1939. With a month to date (MTD) gain of 8.1%, the S&P 500 is still well behind the 15.6% MTD gain from September 1939, but still ahead of the 7.6% MTD gain we saw back in 1998. Looking at the S&P 500’s performance over the rest of the month shows that strong Septembers do not necessarily finish strong. Of the nine prior periods highlighted, the S&P 500 has declined an average of 1.2% for the rest of the month with positive returns less than half of the time (3 out of 9)."

I am also short Gold Futures and calls but gold prices seem to be stuck at these levels. I am going to give it a little more time to define itself...

I am into art this week. I will leave you with my favourite painting from Salvador Dali, "The Persistance Of Memory (1931)":

Sep 21, 2010

I Am All In Short:S&P 500 Index Calls And Gold.

I have shorted all that I could on the big spike after the Fed statement. Traders were enthusiastic with the possibilities of QE and all I saw as an overextended and overbought market plus an irrational gold market.

I was fully margined on ORCL short calls and SPY short calls and I have re-arranged my portfolio a bit, adding exposure to the S&P 500 Index and shorting gold.

I am all in short and I am not worried a bit. I am smelling a home run, Sammy Sosa style.

I Am Bearish On Gold Stocks

Gold stocks are selling off while gold is trading flat to down. If gold corrects a bit from these overextended levels, gold stocks can go downhill.

I am fully margined on two option trades and I cannot jump on that short right away. But I am keeping an eye on the sector. Barrick Gold (ABX) is the weakest today, down 2.88%.

Money Never Sleeps. I Can`t Wait To Watch It.


Here is the HD trailer to the movie of the year.

Are We Going To Have Inflation?

Very good article on the inflation versus deflation debate from Scott Grannis:

Commodities: onward and upward

Here is the last paragraph of his article,

"I am not saying that a lot of inflation is good for an economy or for the equity market. But right now the issue is not whether we have a lot of inflation or not; the issue is whether we have deflation or not. Once the market has overcome its fear of deflation, then it will be time to worry about how high inflation is likely to rise. For now, rising commodity prices are a direct reflection of declining deflationary and recessionary risks, and that is one of the factors driving the equity market higher."

My only question is, why are US government bonds reflecting a completely different scenario? Can we argue that we will have very low inflation in the US and high inflation in the world economy, especially in emerging economies?

Your views on this subject are appreciated.

Have a great trading day. (check the last post about SPY options trading)

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

Sep 20, 2010

Its Time For A Pause. Selling Some Calls.


This rally will stall and some sort of consolidation/correction is imminent. In this context I am selling calls. Its the most appropriate action for this environment.

The Nasdaq has rallied for 9 consecutive sessions. Gosh, it feels like April.

5 Day Free Trial

I have already added the traders that asked for a 5 day free trial to today`s emailing list. I have just sent a short-selling intraday pick. Check it out.

Thanks for your interest.

Sep 17, 2010

Small Retail Investors Are Bullish. Should You Sell Short?

Small investors are feeling confident again that stocks will trend higher:

"Small investor sentiment has soared to new 2010 highs and hit levels not seen since August 2009 when stocks had rallied 50% off the March 2009 lows in a near straight line.

To the small investor there is little that can go wrong with equities now. We have seen just six prior readings approaching 50% in the last three years and in four of those cases stocks traded lower by an average of 14% within the next two months. The two exceptions to the rule were during the 2009 bull market when stocks were invulnerable."


I was short, closed my short line on the S&P 500 futures with a loss. The actual claims data had a bullish impact on my trading views. But I am opening them again now, taking advantage of the big surge on Globex. I am selling december futures at 1131.00, which represents the 1136 level on the Index.

Even if the next big move will be higher (I am not sure about that), short term we will correct eventually...

Sep 16, 2010

Are Investors Confused? I Am.

Interesting piece on investor sentiment that shows how confusing this market is:

"We've talked in the past about the lack of conviction in this market, but the results of this week's sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) are still surprising. According to the survey, bullish sentiment increased to 50.89% which is the second highest reading in two years. Three weeks ago, investors hated equities and bullish sentiment hit it second lowest reading in the last two years. Today, they can't get enough of them. It's amazing what a few up days can do for market sentiment."

in BIG

As Soros said yesterday, "we are in a uncertain environment". Aren`t we always?

It was a very quiet day for me. I closed my oil shorts on today`s weakness and closed my Emini S&P shorts because I am confused on the most probable course of action going forward. I am now looking for new opportunities, but of course there`s always room for one or two intraday plays. A professional trader simply cannot sit on its hands, can it? My playground today was EMN and UNG. I did well on both. Nothing to write home about, but still ok. It helps pay the bills.

If you are into music today, check out DJ Patife. Nice sound (or som bacana, as they say) coming from an emerging market. Very good and relaxing sound. Perfect for the after market chill :)

If not, then take your wife out to dinner. Trading can be very detrimental to marriages/ relationships so its better to keep that in mind. I have many trader friends that blew up their marriages because trading ate their heads. You know what I mean, don`t you?

Saludos (for my spanish speaking subscribers and readers)

US Economy: A Sign Of Strength?

The fall in actual claims is a sign of strength for the US economy and bullish for equities:


(this is an excerpt of the research report sent to the subscribers a few minutes ago)

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM)

Soros: "This Is A Period Of Great Uncertainty"

Very interesting video interview from one of the best speculators of the 1990`s:

"This is a period of great uncertainty"

George Soros

Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold Mining Co. (ADR) (NYSE:HMY), Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX), NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (Public, AMEX:NG)

PS: Comments are back on after yesterday`s incidents. We had a vandalism attack...

No more Anonymous commenting and we have a spam filter.

Sep 15, 2010

Oil Shorts Doing Just Fine.

Remember my comments on yesterday`s post about oil`s poor relative strength, "If oil cannot rally with Euro/Dollar up 1.3%, when will it rally?..."

Well, it has materialized into major weakness and a 2.5% sell-off. I am still bearish and short but I am cashing in on a part of my short position.

Have a great trading day.

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short ETN (NYSE:DTO)

Will Japan`s Unilateral Intervention On Its Currency Succeed?


Japan intervened in the forex markets for the first time since 2004 to curb on the yen that threaten an export-led recovery.

With this move the Bank Of Japan is aiming to stop the yen from appreciating more rather than significantly weakening it but the million dollar question is, will it succeed?

I do not think so. Its probably just a short term bounce on the Yen crosses. The yen lost 2.6 percent to 85.16 yen per dollar and 2.3 percent to 110.43 per euro.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said he believes the Finance Ministry considers 82 yen per dollar to be the line of defense to prevent currency strength from harming the economy. I think there isn`t enough money in the world to prevent a currency`s move if fundamentals dictate it.

I agree with Mitul Kotecha, global head of currency strategy at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong, “It’s very difficult to see this succeed unless it’s going to be supported by the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank”.

I will be watching those crosses with interest.

Have a great trading day.

Sep 14, 2010

US Economy: The Key Will Be What Happens In Other Parts Of The World

Pimco`s El-Erian shared his views on the US economy today:

"The key issue is going to be...what happens in other parts of the world. The rest of the world is healthier. If the rest of the world can not only continue to grow but can start lifting us up more, then we would reduce that (double-dip) probability."

El-Erian has been mostly wrong on his market calls but I always like to listen to his arguments.

I think the stock market is getting overbought and short positions should be favoured. My oil shorts have performed really well, after rallying in early trading. My strategy is still to short intraday oil spikes and take advantage of the contango on smaller structural short lines.

I have been very busy on all fronts and haven`t shared other topics of interest as I usually do. Today I will leave you with a music suggestion. Arcade Fire is one of my favourite bands and they have a new album.

I am takin my wife out to dinner today. Maybe you should do the same.

PS: If oil cannot rally with Euro/Dollar up 1.3%, when will it rally?...

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist: The Risks Lie To The Downside












Interesting interview with Goldman Sachs` chief economist, Jan Hatzius.

He points out that the risks are on the downside.

I am trading light today. Not seeing any real opportunities anywhere.

Related ETFs: iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short ETN (NYSE:DTO), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oi ETF (NYSE:SCO), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)

Were Retail Sales Really Stronger Then Expected?

Interesting analysis of the stronger then expected Retail Sales data released at 8.30 am ET from David White:

"Retail sales were stronger than expected, but this was partially due to higher gasoline sales (prices) and higher food prices."

Sep 13, 2010

Oil And S&P 500 Short Lines

Very good bearish article about mutual funds cash levels: MUTUAL FUNDS ARE “ALL IN”

I am shorting eMini S&P Futures on a upscale and playing the short side of the oil market. In oil, there is downside risks in price and a huge contango to be extracted.

Related ETFs: iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short ETN (NYSE:DTO), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oi ETF (NYSE:SCO), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY)

Sep 12, 2010

S&P Futures Trading At A 6 Point Premium vs Fair Value

eMini S&P Futures are trading at a 6 point premium relative to fair value. I am selling short a small line with a profit target around the fair value, 1110.

Besides, I have a negative bias for this week.

Sep 11, 2010

I Have Upgraded The Membership

I have just sent my Oil Report to the subscribers.

I am adding some research notes on oil, live oil trades and intraday alerts on stocks I am trading to the membership.

I want to build a large trading network.

On a different note, I am going to watch the US open semifinals now. I am hoping for a Nadal - Federer final.

Sep 10, 2010

New Post On Seeking Alpha: Gold Is Poised for a Big Correction

Read my latest article on Seeking Alpha: Gold Is Poised for a Big Correction

Gold is not a frequent topic for me here at the blog, but I am getting more and more interested in (shorting) it.

By the way, today I was invited to speak at a Luanda, Angola conference on markets and oil in November. I am looking forward to it.

Donald Trump: At Best, The Economy Is Flat

"I don`t think the economy is very good. At best, the economy is flat."

Donald Trump, CNBC

Trading oil, stocks and forex for a living.

Crude Oil Inventories Still High


Source: Bespoke Investment Group

A Note Of Caution. Small Investors Are Turning Bullish Again.

The Pragmatic Capitalism has been following market sentiment and shared its latest readings on the website:

"Talk about a schizophrenic market. Just two weeks ago the sky was falling. As sentiment plummeted the excessively fearful shorts were caught flat footed and an impressive short covering rally ensued. Now, just a few economic reports and a brief rally later small investors are convinced that there are no risks coming down the pike. The AAII’s bullish sentiment survey showed a remarkable rebound in recent weeks. After hitting 21% just two weeks ago the percentage of bullish investors has surged to 43.9% – the highest reading since April 15th when sentiment hit 48.5% and just days prior to the Q1 market peak."

This should cause anxiety for the bulls. The market may not turn right away, but the fuel tank for this trip is probably near empty.

I am looking forward to watch the US Open semis on Saturday and the final on Sunday. I hope Nadal and Federer can go through their matches and provide us with a dream finale. Go Roger!

The Second Half Of The Year Is Going To Be Worse Then The First

"The second half of the year is going to be worse than the first because all of the tailwinds to growth become headwinds."

Nouriel Roubini

There`s no relevant economic data to be released today, so probably we are going to have a choppy, non-trending session.

I reversed from long to short on the eMini S&Ps yesterday evening and closed my shorts overnight (while feeding Enzo :)). I am sitting on cash on the discretionary account. I will look into some stock opportunities later today.

Nokia has finally dismissed its CEO. The stock is up 5% on the Helsinki Stock Exchange. The stock has been battered over the last couple of years due to a persistent decline in market share. Something had to be done, and firing its CEO may very well be a start. I will watch with interest the stock performance because it can be set for a rally.

Related stock: Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK)

Sep 9, 2010

Should Oil Be Trading At 10 Dollars Per Barrel?

The price of a barrel of oil would be closer to 10 dollars per barrel if the commodity wasn't traded as an investment instrument, given the record-high levels of U.S. oil inventories, Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, said:

"I honestly think that if there were no investors using oil as an asset that the price of oil right now would be 10, 15 or 18, but it wouldn't be anywhere near where it is.

We have so much oil right now, more than we've had in 27 years. Why is it 27 years? Because that's how far our records go back. It's probably the most in 50 or 100 years."


Interesting thoughts. Anyway, with the large contango in the oil futures markets, oil would need to rise a lot to compensate any long positions. I think the way to go is to short rally and to fade intraday spikes like we had yesterday after lunch.

Have a great trading day.

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (OIL)

Related Stocks: Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO), Seadrill Limited (NYSE:SDRL), Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG), Noble Corporation (NYSE:NE)

US Economy Outlook And Initial Claims As A Leading Indicator

I found this interesting analysis on the US economy on the Pragmatic Capitalism. He says that growth will remain well below trend as the consumer continues to de-leverage and this process will last into 2012 at least:

"As I expected, the initial stimulus plan helped give the appearance of recovery, but it did not solve the actual problem. It merely papered over the problems and injected some short-term relief. The problem of debt was still (and still is) brewing under the surface. Now as the stimulus effect wears off we are realizing that the household sector remains incredibly weak, but there is no political will to attempt to solve the problems at hand. Ultimately, these problems will persist until the problem of debt has been reduced to a point that can sustain higher levels of expenditures. By my estimates, the current trajectory of debt repayment and economic growth leads me to believe this cannot occur until 2012 at the earliest.

What this all likely means is that growth will remain well below trend as the consumer continues to de-leverage. This creates a particularly uncertain environment for corporations and leaves the economy highly susceptible to exogenous risks (China, European debt crisis, housing double dip, etc). Political gridlock and continued misdiagnosis in government will certainly not help. Welcome to the balance sheet recession boys and girls. Enjoy your stay."


in The Prag Cap

Today we will have the Initial Claims data. Its my favorite economic indicator because its up to date (refers to the last week, while many economic indicators relate to the last month and sometimes 2 months) and its one of the key components of ECRI`s leading indicators. ECRI`s Achutan commented recently that Initial Claims are one of the most accurate leading indicators on the economy. I agree.

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM)

Sep 8, 2010

Crude Oil Futures Seasonality


The above chart represents the seasonality for Crude Oil Futures Continuous Contract (CL) for the past 20 years.

Date range: January 1, 1990 to December 31, 2009

Source: Equity Clock

If you look at this seasonal chart you can see the bad seasonality from October to late December. If you add the large contango in oil futures and the seasonality, you can have the perfect short.

I have been trading from the short side, mostly intraday plays.

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO), Path S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)

Sep 7, 2010

Contango Is Rising Again. Its The Carry Traders Paradise.

Oil futures are showing large contango spreads in the November and December contracts.

November and December futures are trading 2.3% and 4.4% respectively, above front month prices.

That is a carry trader paradise, especially if you are bearish on oil or on the economy in general. Small investors shorting the oil ETF`s also benefit from this contango that will be reflected in the ETF`s price when they start rolling over their contracts.

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (OIL)

The Summer Is Over In Wall Street

The trading desks will begin to fill back up next week as the unofficial summer comes to an end this weekend. This usually means market activity starts to pick up again, and we could be in store for a new trend to emerge over the last four months of the year.

Futures are pointing to a lower start.

I have updated the statistics on the right corner of the website as some of you have asked. I am surprised with some hate reactions in the comments section. This is a free website, it will continue to be run in the same way despite the paid daily service upgrade.

I will give an extension of 10 days for those that subscribe the service.

On a different note, I bought a fantastic book this weekend, 21st Century Houses: 150 of the World's Best. If you like architecture and houses, you will love this one.

Have a great trading day: stay tuned for the trading action during the day.

Sep 6, 2010

Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis


"Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis: In times of crisis people seek strong leaders and simple solutions. But what if their solutions are identical to the mistakes that caused the very crisis? This is the story of the greatest economic crisis of our age, the one that awaits us."

Its a fantastic documentary, share it with your friends and colleagues.

Have a great Labor Day.

Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis" was produced by a team of filmmakers led by prominent Swedish libertarians Jonah Norberg and Martin Borgs.

The film has been broadcast in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Australia - and won the prestigious 'Best Feature Documentary' award at the San Francisco Frozen Film Festival.

Trading oil, stocks and forex for a living.

Sep 3, 2010

Positive Historical Bias For Today`s Session

The average change for the Dow Jones Index on all 109 first Fridays of September since 1900 has been +0.22 percent. This is seven times the average change for all days since 1900 that has been about +0.03%.

The median change also confirms the positive bias of the first Friday of September with a positive 0.21%. Over the last 10 years, the index has been up 5 times and down 5 times on these days, and the index was up 1.03% on the first Friday of September last year.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

But given the fact that the market rallied for 2 straight sessions I would be cautious going long today.

I am less optimistic about my Mariner Energy (ME) short position. Its seems that Apache (APA) has already confirmed that the deal is on.

Sep 2, 2010

Shorting Mariner Energy (ME)

I am shorting Mariner Energy (ME) at 22.90 after having bounced from the lows. Don`t have time to go into all the pros and cons of the trade but at the current Apache (APA) stock price, ME is valued at 23.36. So you have almost no risk and big profit potencial on the short side.

Besides, Apache (APA) can back out, many things can happen...

Sep 1, 2010

The Optimal Mental State For Trading

One of the most important skills a professional trader needs to develop is being able to manage his or her psychological state. Effective psychological maintenance can make all the difference between trading success and failure.

In my own trading, I have found the essential state of mind I must be in to trade at an optimal level. I call it the “zero-state.”
For me, the zero-state represents an emotionally neutral condition that is neither happy nor sad, neither overconfident nor fearful. The adjective “calm” starts to come close to what I mean but the term lacks an important distinction. “Calm” is part of an adjective pair, whose partner has precisely the opposite meaning. “Stormy” is usually given as the antonym to "calm."

The term "serenity" describes a state that comes even closer to describing the zero-state than calm. Serenity suggests a timeless eternity of “no-emotion,” where I am not connected to the outcome in a personal, meaningful way.

No conventional adjective, however, can fully describe the zero-state. An adjective describes a particular condition. I associate one adjective or condition as one half of a pair of opposites. Both words of the pair form poles on a continuum where I think of the exact center as “zero,” just as on a number line. Conceptually, the Japanese term “mu” comes fairly close to this concept of center. "Mu" has been variously described as neither yes or no, a state in-between that does not acknowledge the question being asked as one that may be answered by either yes or no, with the answer existing in a different plane of reality.

Other Useful Mental States

Other traders I know have found different mental states useful. After all, trading from an emotion-free state (like the zero-state) may not be the best mental state for you. Consider the following options for your optimal mental state in your journey of self discovery and trading mastery.

I know traders who find it necessary and useful to achieve a state of emotional alpha male competitiveness in order to enter the “ring of combat.” These traders perceive the trading environment as combative and they interpret their role accordingly. They anticipate combat, they mentally prepare for it, and they experience trading in combative terms.

Another effective trader I know needs to see himself as a pure mechanical businessman, so he takes a different approach: that of disinterested observer. He remains so disinterested that he will not even watch the trades unfold lest he’s tempted to adapt his rules mid-trade.

His analysis showed that such behavior did not add value, so his optimal mental state was to be as far away from engagement as possible. These are just two other examples of different mental states suitable for effective trading. There may be as many unique states as there are traders, which means that you must use introspection and self-knowledge to discover what works for you psychologically.

How will you know? Know thyself and consult with others you trust and respect. Above all else, however, make sure you trade with real money in very small position sizes. Doing so will help you assess the effects of market, system, money and self on your total trading performance. Without even a small amount of money on the line, you postpone the Day of Judgment. The sooner you get into the game, the sooner you will engage in real learning. In addition, you need to use trading strategies that suit your personality, time frame, risk profile and working hypothesis of market behavior. Trading in ways that fit you will help you maintain your optimal mental state for trading.

in The Van Tharp Institute, by Ken Long

China Manufacturing Data Lifting Markets

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average added 80 points, or 0.9 percent, to 8,904 after hitting a 16-month closing low the previous day. I am still long Nikkei Futures expecting a continuation of the rally. My first target is 9100.

Yesterday`s action was a little disappointing. I was antecipating a rally that didn`t materialize, but today`s globex action looks more encouraging thanks to China`s manufacturing data posting the first gain in four months.

I am also reducing my yen shorts and shifting to a "wait and see" approach.

Oil made a big down move after the european close, which is rather uncommon. I bought on weakness and I expect to close that trade later today. Oil futures are usually rather quiet after the euroepan close, hovering around +/- 0.50 point per contract. That wasn`t the case yesterday...

By the way, have you seen this beauty from Roger,