"A business absolutely devoted to service will have only one worry about profits. They will be embarrassingly large." - Henry Ford

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Is China Slowing Down?

I think the potential slowdown of the chinese economy will be one of the major investment themes going into 2011:

"China’s PMI continued to expand in December, but showed some signs of slowing momentum. Total output and new orders slowed to their lowest levels in three months while the headline figure showed continuing expansion at 54.4 – down from 55.3 in November." - in The Prag Cap

I am very happy with how 2010 went, just hope 2011 will be just as good. I wish you all a Happy New Year!

Related ETFs: Related ETFs: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CAF) , PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF) (NYSE:PGJ) , United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Earnings 1 Day Plays.

Earnings season will kick start in January 10th with Alcoa`s (AA) quarterly earnings. This means we will be back in action with the "Earnings 1 Day" setups in early January. These plays were the "Crown Jewel" of the HMS Trading Subscription Service last quarter alongside the stock picking system that is ending the year on new high ground.

Check the screenshot of the "Earnings 1 Day Plays" from last quarter. Remember that there is a special rate of 600 USD for the 1 Year membership valid through year end if you want to get onboard.

(Click to Enlarge)

Have a great 2011.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

A Great Video About Blogging & Happy New Year

Seth Godin and Tom Peters explain the importance of blogging for everyone, including traders. As you know I have been blogging for a couple of years and I am having one of the best experiences of my life. I hope you have been enjoying it.

I want to wish a happy new year to all the readers and susbcribers. 2010 has been a magnificent year and I am sure 2011 will be even better, personally and professionally. I will end 2010 with a brilliant quote from Benjamin Disraeli, "One secret of success in life is for a man to be ready for his opportunity when it comes."


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Big Short Interest On Veeco Instruments (VECO)

Veeco Instruments (VECO) tops the list of the most shorted stocks. Even though the stock has not been a high flyer recently and has traded on a relatively narrow trading range for the last 3 and 6 months:



This is stock trading with a 9.85 P/E and a 2.61 beta. But my question is, what is attracting so many short sellers to this stock? Maybe we should be on the lookout for a nice squeeze.

I will leave with with an amazing live performance from Herbie Hancock:


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

China`s Inflation, Short Term Trading & Mark Rothko

"There is, in my opinion, no greater risk to the global economy than the imbalances that are occurring in the Chinese economy. Global growth has become uncomfortably dependent on China. Unfortunately, their central bankers have been primarily educated with the same western world textbooks that helped contribute to many of the problems in the developed world. The major risk here is that China will fail to act in a proactive manner and risk a hard landing. With a tepid recovery in the developed world this would certainly cause a ripple effect around the world. Inflation in China is not currently at the levels we experienced in 2007/2008, but the Chinese would be wise to get a handle on the issue before it causes more pronounced problems" - Cullen Roche

Of course, inflation means higher prices for everything. Well, it seems that its for everything except China`s stock market that has been trading lower since long ago.

I have been focusing more and more on short term trading because macro calls have been increasingly difficult to make (many macro managers are leaving the business, guess why?) and because the risk/rewards of short term trading are far greater. A global macro trader cannot be profitable every single week can he? That is why my niche is short term trading, sometimes even ultra short term. Powered by statistical models and very low commissions I have been on a fantastic winning streak for months.

I will leave you with Mark Rothko, Self-Portrait, 1936. A true masterpiece,

Related ETFs: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CAF) , PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF) (NYSE:PGJ) , United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Interesting Quote

“ETFs are just a tool. I promise you that people in the past have misused every single tool in existence and will do so in the future.” - Roger Nusbaum

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Stocks With Highest Short Interest: Blue Nile (NILE), Alliance Data (ADS), PetMed (PETS), Veeco (VECO) & NutriSystem (NTRI)

These are the 5 most shorted stocks on the S&P 1500 Index (Source: B.I.G.):

Blue Nile, Inc. (NASDAQ:NILE) , Alliance Data Systems Corporation (NYSE:ADS), PetMed Express, Inc. (NASDAQ:PETS), Veeco Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:VECO) and NutriSystem Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRI) are the most hated stocks on the street right now. Our friend Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (Public, NYSE:RAX) is also on the list, ranking 25th. We shorted RAX on the Trading Service earlier this month and we lost. We will short it again in 2011...

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

"Lost It All" - Don`t Sing This.

I just hope that you will never sing this song as a trader... "Lost It All", Tontelas Feat. SKi. Amazing sound:

The market is very quiet, its in hibernation mode. Maybe there will be some activity in US Treasuries later today but for the rest....sleepy, sleepy trading.

Have a great day.

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Is The Housing Double Dip Upon Us? How Severe Will It Be?

“Data through October 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 18 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites in October compared to what was reported for September 2010. The 10-City Composite was up only 0.2% and the 20-City Composite fell 0.8% from their levels in October 2009. Home prices decreased in all 20 MSAs and both Composites in October from their September levels. In October, only the 10-City Composite and four MSAs – Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC – showed year-over-year gains. While the composite housing prices are still above their spring 2009 lows, six markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices started to fall in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen beyond the recent lows seen in most other markets in the spring of 2009.” - Source: S&P

Will banks and home building stocks be taking the stage for an encore in 2011?

Related: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) , Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) , Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) , Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE:STI), Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) , D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) , PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) , Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

What Is A Lucky Fool Trader?

Fantastic definition of the lucky fool trader, enjoy:

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

The Commodities Markets Trade More On Psychology Than Fundamentals

"Many economists have tried to trade the commodities markets fundamentally and have usually end up losing. The problem is that markets often trade more on psychology than on fundamentals." - Al Weiss

Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA) , iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) , iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Fasten Your Seatbelts. We Can Start The Week With A Sell-Off.

The surprise rate move coming from China on Christmas Eve may spoil the Santa Claus rally on Wall Street. Last time China raised rates on mid-October, oil fell 4 percent and gold and equities were also hard hit. So, it will be an interesting session right from the globex opening in a few hours.

I will leave with this interesting quote from a top fund manager, "If there`s a large move on significant news, either favorable or unfavorable, the stock will usually continue to move in that direction"




Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA), Powershares DB Base Metals Fund (ETF) (NYSE:DBB), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Bulls Are Running On The Street & An Interview.

This has been one the most extraordinary runs I have ever seen in equities. The market is up on 14 of the 16 sessions in December, and the biggest 1-day drop is a mere 0,4%. The VIX? Well, its down "just" 32% month to date. This is a "no fear" mentality that in my opinion will last until early 2011. We are benefiting from this seasonality on the Trading Service and we will adjust to the new conditions when the moment arrives. Interesting commentary on the current market behaviour:

"The month of December has been kind to the bulls and it’s not over yet. So far, the scorecard for the month is nothing short of incredible. The market has become entirely invulnerable to any sort of downside. Since December began we’ve seen a 32% decline in the VIX, new highs in investor sentiment and a continuation in the “buy the dip” mentality that began in September. The potent combination of better than expected economic data and the Bernanke Put has investors betting that stocks can’t sustain a downturn. And thus far they’ve been dead right." - in The Prag Cap

I was recently interview on TheTradingElite.com and I want to share that interview with you.

Related: General Electric Company (NYSE:GE), 3M Company (NYSE:MMM), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE), Bank of America Corporation (Public, NYSE:BAC) , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) , Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) , MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) , United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) , Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA), Powershares DB Base Metals Fund (ETF) (NYSE:DBB), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Oil Rises Above 90 USD For The First Time Since Early December.

Nymex Crude Oil futures surpassed 90 USD a barrel, the first time crude has passed the threshold since December 7. Oil bulls took heart from a survey by the API that showed a much larger-than-expected drop in crude oil stockpiles last week.

The official weekly inventories will be reported later today. This will be a very interesting trading session in oil. The 90 breakout can be confirmed or rejected creating trading opportunities both ways.

Have a great day.

Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR), Sunoco, Inc. (NYSE:SUN) , Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Oil Testing 90 USD Resistance

Very interesting battle going on at 90 USD per barrel. Check the action over the last 2 weeks:

Oil has a clearly defined trading range between 87.50 and 90. I am pretty sure this trading range will not be holding for much longer... I would be a seller at the top of the range but seasonality can play its tricks and send oil higher in the next couple of weeks. Interesting formation , anyway.

Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL)


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Gold Will Be Volatile In 2011. Big Downside Risks.

Interesting thoughts from Doug Kass on Gold:

"Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners says gold is going to be highly volatile in 2011. He says prices will routinely move $75-$100 on a daily basis and that prices will “plummet” 25% at some point in 2011 compared to today’s closing price."

He may very well have a point there. Gold is without a doubt a mainstream asset these days. The public has been slowly arriving at this party and there will be some hangovers there for sure. So my view is that it will be smooth sailing until the end of the year and then sometimes next year gold prices will start to get more and more volatile.

Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold Mining Co. (ADR) (NYSE:HMY), Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX), NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NG)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Energy Is A Secular Story Of Favorable Supply & Demand Dynamics.

"Long term, energy is a secular story of favorable supply/demand dynamics: production is increasingly expensive...while demand tracks overall global economic growth, which means demand rises long term. In the short term, we see strong fundamental trends and a positive outlook driving outperformance of the sector..."

Thomas J. Lee, JPMorgan chief equity strategist - 2011 outlook

Related: Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR), Sunoco, Inc. (NYSE:SUN) , Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

A Few Thoughts On 2011. Netflix & Rackspace Hosting.

I will not be providing a 2011 outlook because my trades are short term oriented and I prefer to adapt to market circumstances rather than stick to a long term outlook. On the Trading Subscription Service I like to blend some intraday plays with swing trades ranging from 3 days to a few weeks. I think that is the style that secures the best risk to reward ratio and allows traders to enjoy the benefits of a smooth and uptrending equity curve.

Anyway, if I had to pick an investment for 2011, I would short Netflix (NFLX) and Rackspace Hosting (RAX). They may very well go up a bit more in the short term but they will be trending down going into 2012.

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) , United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) , iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV) , SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY) , iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (NYSE:RAX) , Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

“The stock market capitalizes not the absolute level of strength in the domestic economy, nor the mood of the median household, but rather a private profit stream of mostly large, substantially global companies.” - Michael Santoli

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

“The Bond King hates bonds. What more do you need to hear?” - Josh Brown

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Its About Time To Begin Preparing Another Bear Raid.

Market sentiment is rampant and that means its probably time to begin thinking of the short side of the market again:

"Sentiment levels have remained exceedingly high for several months now as investors begin to feel more confident in the economic recovery and believe that equity prices have but one direction to move. The latest reading from the Investor’s Intelligence survey showed another climb in bullish sentiment to 56.8%. This is the highest reading since the Fall of 2007 when equity markets were at their all-time highs."

There is some very strong seasonalities in play for the last 2 weeks of the year, but I think we will have a meaningful correction in January.

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Rosenberg On the Inflation/Deflation Debate.

"Deflation remains the primary intermediate risk for the U.S., notwithstanding the prospect of a near-term follow-through from the recent surge in many commodity prices. Money velocity remains dormant despite the Fed’s reflation efforts. There remains far too much excess capacity in the labour market. This requires an ongoing focus on SIRP (safety and income at a reasonable price) strategies for investors." David Rosenberg

If he is right on his analysis, US 10 Year Bonds are a clear buy. Anyway, interesting thoughts as always from David Rosenberg, Gluskin Scheff`s Market Strategist.

Related: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Trading Is A Craft.

"Contrary to popular belief, trading is a craft. Like an artisan who develops a craft over a lifetime, it requires a discipline to be exercised daily." - Mike Bellafiore

*craft: an activity involving a special skill at making things with your hands;

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Contango In Oil Is Turning Into Backwardation.

Interesting analysis on oil contango/backwardation I came across on Bloomberg:

"Producers and merchants increased so-called net-short positions in crude futures and options by 13 percent in the week ended Dec. 7, setting prices for output from wells, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s said in its Commitments of Traders report. It was the second-largest set of sales in two years.

Hedging oil for future delivery pressured the longest-maturity contracts, erasing the contango, or premium paid for later shipments. Hedge funds exaggerated the move as oil for delivery in December 2011 began trading at a premium to December 2012 for the first time since the week Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. declared bankruptcy in September 2008."

I am bullish long term on oil prices, but now its probably time for a correction. I would not be surprised if we corrected to the low 80`s.

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) , iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oi ETF (NYSE:SCO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Quick Moves On The 10 Year Yields.

"The ten year yield took over 5 months to drop from 3.5% to 2.4%, but it only took two months to retrace those steps." - in surlytrader.com

Related ETFs: Related ETFs: iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) , iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Interesting Thoughts From A Top Bond Investor.

Jeff Gundlach, the bond manager who consistently outperforms Bill Gross (and has a tenth of Bill`s public exposure), had a few interesting comments on the economy, as well as the probable direction of bonds and stocks going forward:

“I don’t think the economy can take much of a rate rise above 3.5 percent….The economy, society and government are fueled by debt.”

“Deflation is more likely in the next 24 months.”

“This is not the time to be selling bonds and buying stocks. This is the time to do the opposite.”

A pure contrarian approach in nowadays.

I have been expanding the trading commentary using the Twitter box above. If you want to receive those twits on your Twitter page, just click "Join the Conversation" on the lower right corner of the above Twitter box.

I want to share with you this magnificent Van Gogh artwork. Have a great trading day.

Related ETFs: iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) , iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS) , ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

“Great traders adapt.”- Michael Bigger

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

An Intraday Opportunity On CareFusion (CFN)?

Goldman Sachs (GS) downgraded CareFusion (NYSE: CFN) from Buy to Neutral, citing risk to Street estimates - the stock is surprisingly trading up. Is this a good intraday shorting opportunity?

Check the 2 day chart of CareFusion (CFN):


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

2011 Outlook For US Stocks.

A very interesting preview of 2011:

"Consensus views of 1,350 on the S&P 500 and 4% real GDP growth are far too high. Not one strategist polled by Bloomberg is bearish on equities. So we have a complacency problem on our hands, the exact opposite of what we experienced at the March 2009 and the July 2010 lows. For that reason, the outlook for at least the first half of 2011 is less than positive." - David Rosenberg, Market Strategist, Gluskin Sheff

Related ETFs: Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Moody`s Warns It May Cut US Debt Rating...

What about this?

"Moody's warned on Monday that it could move a step closer to cutting the U.S. Aaa rating if President Barack Obama's tax and unemployment benefit package becomes law."

This is something to keep an eye on...

Related: Related: iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT) , ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Rosenberg On Emerging Markets.

"Emerging markets will struggle as central banks move more forcefully to curb accelerating inflationary pressure. The Chinese stock market may have already signalled that a major top in the region has been achieved."

David Rosenberg

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM) , iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI) , iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ) , Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (NYSE:RSX)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

OPEC Is Exceeding Quotas By The Highest Margin In 6 Years

"The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries excluding Iraq pumped 26.78 million barrels a day this year, exceeding the quotas by an average of 1.934 million a day, the highest level since 2004."

in Bloomberg

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) , iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

US Stocks Are Very, Very Overbought.

"Friday’s close puts the S&P 500 into ’extreme overbought’ territory (2+ standard deviations above 50-DMA) and at its most overbought level since November 2009." - in Bespoke

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Market Sentiment Too Optimistic. Tech Is Sexy Again.

An interesting note on market sentiment that I want to share with you:

"And for another confirmation that the Nasdaq is now at the same extreme "irrational exuberance" levels last seen during the dot com crash, we read courtesy of sentimenttrader.com that the Rydex Nasdaq 100 bull/bear ratio is now the highest it has been since just before the dot com crash. "Traders in the Rydex mutual fund family have poured into the Nasdaq 100 long fund at the expense of the inverse fund on the same index. These traders now have 34 times more money invested in the long fund vs. the inverse fund, which is the highest ratio since the bubble days of 2000 and early 2001." And what is scarier, is that unlike during the dot com, investors are using leveraged methods to express their exuberance: "The Bull / Bear Ratio for the leveraged funds isn't quite as extreme...but it's close (on a relative basis).""

in Zero Hedge

Related: Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL) , Netflix, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NFLX) , Riverbed Technology, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:RVBD) , salesforce.com, inc. (Public, NYSE:CRM), Google Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GOOG), F5 Networks, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:FFIV)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Its Friday. A Light Trading Day For Me.

I had a great trading week, so I will be on the quiet side today. I hate to jeopardize a great trading week on Fridays. Preserving my weekly profits its key for a cool, composed and relaxed attitude over the weekend. Besides I have a cocktail party later today, so I want to be in a good mood for it...

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Chinese Stocks Under Pressure Before Key Data.

"Days from an important batch of economic data in China saw the Shanghai index fall 1.5% to a 2 month low as many expect another rate hike within weeks."

in Big Picture

Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI) , PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF) (NYSE:PGJ), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CAF)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Benjamin`s Graham Quote

‎"Wall Street people learn nothing and forget everything."

-Benjamin Graham.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Southwest Airlines: Trading At Support & Down 5 Sessions In A Row.

I am not a pure technical trader by any means but I like to post charts once in a while. I was going through one of my daily routines, checking a few charts on companies I follow and I want to share this one with readers. Southwest Airlines (LUV) is down 5 sessions in a row and trading near support. You don`t get many risk/reward trades better then this one... (click to enlarge)

On other topic, I enjoyed last night`s Champions League matches. I had a bet on Real Madrid to win versus Auxerre plus a bet on Bayern Munich to win versus FC Basel. It was a home run. I always loved sports betting and after having no account for 8 or 9 years, I am back and in good form it seems.

Have a great day. Email me if you have any questions.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Montblanc & Mark Twain. Still Short Netflix and Alcoa.

If you are a long time reader of this site you already know that I only like to write with Montblanc pens and also that I love quoting Mark Twain. In commemoration of the centenary of Mark Twain’s death, Montblanc has dedicated its Limited Writers Edition 2010 to one of America’s greatest novelists. The uniquely crafted writing instrument is a fitting homage to the creator of such classics as “The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn” and “The Adventures of Tom Sawyer”.

On other topic, I am still short Netflix (NFLX) and Alcoa (AA) and I have to say that I am having fun. If you want to know the price of this pen, I can tell you that it is not cheap...

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

It Was My Best Session In Weeks. Short Alcoa & Netflix.

It was a very good session today. As I wrote earlier, I initiated a short line on Alcoa (AA) at 14.50 (I think it was the exact high for the day, I got lucky today on all fronts :)) and kept the short line on Netflix (NFLX).

Well, why did I pick Alcoa (AA) to short? Well, first of all its a bad company. Second, it was on a 4 day up run and opened today with an up gap... That was too much. I had to sell to sell it short.

There is a question that I always ask myself before selling short, "would I consider buying it here"? If the answer is "the hell no!", then I know I just have to sell it short and most of the time I will be dead right, right away. Good combination, that.

I have AA and NFLX shorts on the Trading Service as well, so things are looking good there as well with 13 consecutive winning trades in a row. That run will end soon, I am pretty sure about that but lets ride it while it lasts...

After the closing bell, news came out that Netflix (NFLX) CFO`s will leave the company this month. That will give a further boost to our already profitable short line.

I was pretty active on Twitter again today and I have to share with you that I love Twitter. There is lots of quality material there from traders, news providers, thinkers...I am addicted to it. I even add the time for a bit of philosophy when I wrote earlier, "in my view, shrewdness, sagacity in a trader comes from experience and also from the ability to introspect."

And what about Brinker International, Inc. (NYSE:EAT)? Up for 14 session in a row? How is this possible? Who buys the stock here? Well, too many questions for one simple answer, I am shorting it.

So, lots of time to write today. I missed a post like this on the blog.

Have a great day.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Can A Stock Go Up For 14 Sessions In A Row?

Here is the answer: Brinker International, Inc. (NYSE:EAT)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Very Active On Stocks Today.

I am very active on stocks today while I wait for my futures setups to show up.

Just sent a list of stocks to trade on the short side to subscribers. One of them is Alcoa (AA), up for 5 consecutive days, and getting very overbought. Lennar (LEN) is also a bit ahead of itself. On that front, Nouriel Roubini made some very interesting comments today to the New York Times,

"The United States real estate market, for sure, is double dipping. The apparent increase in prices has been fully reversed, demand is falling, and supply is going to increase.”

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Trading Battles & Hugging Lions

I had an easy session today, placing a few dozen trades for a decent end of day P&L. I shared a short on eMini S&P Futures with subscribers going into the European close that ended breakeven. Anyway we are on a 8 or 9 consecutive winners on the Trading Service. I have been blending the Aggregate Profile with my trading discretion to generate trades for subscribers and myself with great success.

We are still short Netflix (NFLX) from 195 USD and I am expecting a big correction on that stock. I am looking for a few more names to short. Actually I am more bearish on individual stocks then on the market. Seasonality is good in the final weeks of the year so I am not expecting any big corrections now.

But apart from these trading battles, I want to share with you the braveness of this man:

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

An Interview With A Great Fund Manager.

Fairholme Fund manager Bruce Berkowitz talks with Consuela Mack from WealthTrack. This is a guy that manages 20 Billion USD, and is ranked on the top 1% of the Large Cap funds in US. He has beaten the S&P 500 Index by 11 percent points a year for the last 10 years. (not anything to write home about for a full time pro trader that can aim to double its capital every 2 years, but remarkable for a fund manager)

Related: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC), American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Quiet Session, Netflix (NFLX) & Natural Gas

Its a very quiet session so far on equities and oil. I will looking for opportunities to be playing both with my proprietary aggregate profile tool during the session.

Netflix (NFLX) is on the rebound today. Another opportunity to sell it short.

Natural Gas is the clear stand out today, trying a new upside breakout. Is this one for real?

I will be active on Twitter. Have a great trading day.

Related: United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (Public, NYSE:USO), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

What To Expect For Stocks In 2011? Is Netflix (NFLX) Topping?

What to expect in 2011 for stocks? Maybe you should study 2005:

There is a very interesting correlation between the two periods. I remember watching Paul Tudor Jones movie and he traded with a similar approach back in the eighties...

On other topic, have you read the Netflix (NFLX) story about its CEO selling almost all its stock? The stock may very well be topping after an extraordinary run:

"Was this the peak of the world's most overpriced stock Netflix? A new Form 4 filing indicates that the first defection in realization of a sinking ship may have occurred. On November 4, Netflix Chief Financial Officer Barry McCarthy sold 100,000 share equivalents, with 91,181 shares sold between $200.36 and $201.11 and the balance from option exercise. The sale has left Barry with just 51,563 shares of NFLX stock. Altogether the proceeds from the transaction are listed as just over $17 million. This also means that in next week's massive insider selling disclosure which we will present on Monday, Netflix will feature prominently in the top 10 of the world's artificially levitating companies. If the CFO believes the time to take profit is in, what does it mean for the millions of other hot potato holders? At last check Netflix was down almost $20 from the all time high hit earlier this week. It has far more to go, especially if as we expect, the company will announce a follow on equity offering shortly." - in Zero hedge

Check Netflix (NFLX) chart:

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Rail Traffic Still Rising. Good Winning Streak.

"Although comps are becoming increasingly difficult we continue to see solid year over year growth in rail traffic. For the first 47 weeks of the year total volume is up 7.1% from last year."

from the Association of American Railroads (AAR)

We had a very good session yet again. We shorted oil before the European close for a small profit, bought eMini S&P Futures on strength for a couple of points and finally we had a positive day again on the stock picking system. The system is making new all time highs again.

I think I will go for one of those 100 USD wine bottles, maybe a Bordeaux. I need to relax this evening to keep producing good trades for myself and for my subscribers.

If you like Art, you are going to love this oil on canvas, "The Kiss", Pablo Picasso:

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Supply & Demand Outlook For Oil.

A very interesting article on oil fundamentals:

"Falling crude-oil supplies and surging demand are likely to lead to “a severe oil crunch” within five years, according to Mamdouh G. Salameh, an independent oil economist.

The chart displays Salameh’s projections for annual production and demand, along with supply shortfalls, at five-year intervals through 2030. This year’s projected shortfall of 4.87 million barrels a day is likely to widen to 9.2 million barrels in 2015, according to Salameh, director of the Oil Market Consultancy Service.

Assuming that occurs, crude oil will match or exceed its record of $147 a barrel, set in July 2008, he wrote:

“High oil prices might be an early indication of a supply-demand imbalance that can’t be reconciled by still higher prices,” Salameh said. “In that case, a more comprehensive oil
shock surely awaits.”

Economic setbacks may be the best-case scenario in any shock, according to the paper. In the worst case, one of the largest oil-consuming nations may pursue conflict -- or even war to safeguard supplies, Salameh wrote. Supply shortfalls may hit Asia the hardest, he said. In the
next five years, the region’s oil demand will increase 13 percent because of its economic expansion, he estimated. The growth is likely to make Asia more dependent on imports, which
already account for most of its oil."

by David Wilson, Bloomberg Newsroom

Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oi ETF (NYSE:SCO), Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR), Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG), Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE:DO), Schlumberger Limited. (NYSE:SLB), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLE), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Cummings (CMI) Crossing 100 USD For The 1st Time, Livermore Style.

Remember Jesse Livermore`s favorite setup of buying a stock when it first crossed 100 USD? Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI) is testing 100 USD for the second time in the last 3 months. Is this breakout for real? JL would play it for sure...

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Is Spain The Next Lehman? Not For Now, At Least.

There seems to be a buzz on the street that Spain will be the next Lehman Brothers, while Greece was Bear Stearns. Art Cashin commented on this yesterday:

“Was Greece in fact the Bear Stearns of this movie and are they now coming around with the CDS spreads?—The belief is that Spain could be Lehman and we don’t want to see a repeat of that.”

Today there seems to be no fear in the markets, as the S&P Futures are trading up 15 points, the EURUSD is rallying 100 pips and Nymex Oil Futures are up 1.35 dollars per barrel. So far these fears seems to be an over reaction and the stock market has certainly been relatively strong vis-a-vis the EUR for example. I think the stock market is ready to move higher again.

We will have to see how it behaves when it approaches resistance at 1200. We are long today with no hedging on the HMS Daily Stock Picking System, playing Altera (ALTR) and Sunoco (SUN). We ended November with a 9,1% gain in the system and also with a very good performance on the extra-system calls, especially on the eMini S&P Futures. We are on a strong winning streak.

Because there is much more to life then trading I will leave with one of my favorites passages from Seinfeld. I miss Jerry and George.



TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.