Is Everything Overpriced?

“It seems like everything is overpriced: stocks, bonds, and real estate." - Robert Shiller

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Dennis Gartman: Watch What`s Going On The Middle East

"This is a big circumstance taking place across the Middle East and we need to pay attention. This is not going to go away anytime soon." - Dennis Gartman

Related stocks and ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Few Stocks Rallied Today, SandRidge Energy (SD) Did

A tribute to an old friend, a stock that rallied today when most sold off:

I did a few great trades on SandRidge Energy (SD) a few months/years ago (time goes by so fast, that we lose track). The stock is finding its form again...

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Monster Worldwide (MWW): A High Flyer Taking A Dive

Check this Monster Worldwide (MWW) chart. Monster rallied from 10 to almost 25 in a few months and was one of Wall Street`s high flyer`s. Now its facing gravity...

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Doug Kass: Sell This Gold Rally

”The consensus is that unrest in Egypt will create a temporary floor in the price of gold but I would sell into the rally.” in CNBC

Related: iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

100 USD Calls On Oil Futures Very Active Today. The Middle East Tension Can Send Oil Sky High.

"March $100 calls were the most active options in electronic trading today, with 6,280 lots changing hands. They rose 32 cents to 35 cents a barrel. April $100 calls, the next-most active contract, gained 79 cents to $1.16 a barrel with 4,649 contracts trading. One contract is for 1,000 barrels of oil." - in Bloomberg

Related stocks and ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

The VXX Spike On A 2-Day Chart

I think the IPath Volatility ETN (VXX) will be very "tradable" over the course of next week. Today`s IPath Volatility ETN (VXX) volume was over 36,000,000 just 10 times the average volume. That was one of the places to be on today`s session. Check the spike at around noon. Great move there.

On other topic, I will leave you with "The Maker", Daniel Lanois:


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Is The Bear Back Or Was This Just A Scare?

It was the biggest sell off in months. Now, the million dollar question is the bear back? We will find out next week. I would not be surprised to see a rally on Monday but it all depends on how things go in the Middle East.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

VXX On The Rise

This is the most volatile session in a few weeks/months. The volatility ETN, the IPath Volatility ETN (VXX) is rallying strongly:

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Nymex Oil Futures Rallying On Middle East Unrest

Big rally going on Nymex Crude Oil Futures. March futures are up 2.44 dolllars or 2.84%. It seems that nobody wants to be short over the weekend with the Middle East/ Egypt unrest.

As Sky News puts it, "Egypt is an oil and gas producer in its own right, but it's real significance is its role as a bulwark of stability in the Middle East."

Related stocks and ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

The Market Is Overpriced On Fundamentals

"I would say the market is overpriced based on fundamentals … I'm talking about the US and probably Europe" - Robert Shiller, economics professor at Yale, in Davos

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Gary Shilling: Buy the U.S. Dollar, Especially Against The Euro

Buy the U.S. Dollar, especially against the euro. Dumping on the dollar has been the favorite sport of investors and the financial media for years. Then the financial meltdown in 2008 drove investors to the dollar as the global safe haven, but in early 2009 that status faded as fears of financial collapse melted. Buck busters cited the record low short-term interest rates, with the federal funds target rate at zero to 0.25%, even lower than in Japan. This made the greenback the preferred funding currency for the carry trade in which it was borrowed and then sold for higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar or the Norwegian krona. The falling dollar against those currencies also enhanced the profitability of those trades.

Buck dumpers also emphasized the tremendous number of dollars being pumped out by the Fed and the Treasury in their attempt to revitalize the economy, and the Fed’s clearly stated commitment to keep short-term interest rates low for an extended period. Furthermore, the left-leaning Congress and administration didn’t help the dollar with their twin goals of increasing government regulation and control of the economy and redistributing income from the higher-income people to lower-income households. These anticapitalistic policies tend to discourage foreign investors and encourage Americans to invest abroad.

Despite all its drawbacks, however, the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency and safe haven, regardless of suggestions by the Chinese and others that the dollar should eventually be replaced by a global currency. But alternatives to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency don’t exist. British sterling had that role in the 19th century, but it disappeared along with the British Empire. Switzerland’s economy and franc are safe and sound, but too small for global scale. Japan doesn’t want the yen to be a global currency. Ditto for China with the Yuan, which remains tightly controlled. What’s left?

Our basic argument for the greenback isn’t that the U.S. is a shining example of fiscal prudence and monetary integrity, a global example of a high saving, high investment economy driven by productivity growth. Rather, it’s our conviction that the dollar is the best of a bad lot and, at least for the next decade or so, the only reserve currency in town. The continuing purchases of Treasurys and other dollar-denominated assets by the central banks of developing countries with big current account surpluses suggest that they agree with us. In the third quarter of 2010, they (not including China) increased their dollar holdings by $416 billion and dumped $17.7 billion worth of euros, according to IMF data.

Furthermore, until early 2010, almost everyone was on the dump-the-dollar side of the boat, a situation similar to that early in 2008 that preceded the dollar’s jump which started in mid-year (Chart 1). History suggests that when that happens, the winds often shift and all those folks will get tossed into the water as the boat sails in the reverse direction

Gary Shilling, in the Prag Cap

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Nymex Crude Oil Futures Likely To Stay Between 80 And 95 USD Per Barrel

"Prices will likely remain within a $80-$95 trading range ... with the downside bias becoming more noticeable during the beginning of the second quarter when crude enters it seasonally weaker period." - Edward Meir, Senior Commodity Analyst at MF Global, New York

Related stocks and ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Jim Rogers Believes The Chinese Renminbi Is The Only Currency Worth Buying Today

Jim Rogers, chairman at Rogers Holdings, believes the Chinese renminbi is the only currency worth buying today. He tells CNBC's Chloe Cho, Anna Edwards and Yousef Gamal El-Din says over the next decade or two, the yuan will rise 300-400%.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Goldman Sachs` Commodities Outlook

“Although commodities overall have performed extremely well since the end of November, what has been notable is the performance of the more cyclical commodities like oil and copper, which joined the rally in agricultural commodities even as gold prices faltered. This is the first time since the summer of 2009 that gold did not lead the commodity complex higher on a sustained basis, which highlights the substantial changes that have occurred in the global financial landscape in recent months as the US economic recovery has shifted onto a much more solid footing. This shift is central to our view for 2011, as we expect cyclical commodities to enter a bull market, augmenting the bull market in agricultural commodities that began in 2010.

On net, while near term we are Neutral on commodities given the sharp run up in prices during December, on a 6-mo and 12-mo basis we remain Overweight and are raising our 12-mo return forecast on the S&P GSCI Enhanced Total Return index to 18.6% due to sooner-than-expected backwardation in many commodity forward curves. Driving this return is not only cyclical commodities like oil and copper where we maintain very positive medium-term views, but also the agriculture and livestock sectors.” - in The PragCap

Related ETFs: ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Index - Total Return ETN (Public, NYSE:RJI) , ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Index - Agriculture Total Return ETN (NYSE:RJA), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

A Two Sided Trade Affair In Crude Oil

"There was nothing within today's EIA report capable of spurring buying. The complex appears to be evolving into a choppy, two-sided trading affair in which nearby values of either the crude or product variety are likely to be little changed a month down the road." - Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates

Related stocks and ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

S&P 500 Index Permanently Overbought. Time For A Pause?

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Bank Lending Is Rising At A Fairly Impressive Rate

An interesting analysis on bank lending:

"The message is very clear: bank lending to businesses has bottomed, and is now rising at a fairly impressive rate. This marks a very important change in financial conditions in recent months: after two years of a sharp decline, bank lending is up at a 13.6% annualized rate since Nov. 24th.

Unfortunately, we can't know whether the recent strength in new lending reflects an easing of bank credit standards or a new-found desire on the part of businesses to borrow (or stop deleveraging), or both, but it's likely a combination of the two. In either case, however, it reflects increased confidence on the part of banks and small businesses, and that is something that has been sorely lacking in this recovery." - in Calafia Beach Pundit

Related: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) , JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) , Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:HBAN), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLF), Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF) (NYSE:FAS)


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

EIA Inventories: Bearish Data Expected

"We expect the EIA stats to provide another bearish dose of data as we look for the combined total of crude and gasoline supplies to build by approximately 6.5 million barrels." - Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates

Related stocks and ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

How Low Can Oil Go?

Interesting pullback in oil prices. Even more interesting because it happened with a weak US Dollar. I am beginning to be interested in oil and will establish a long position if it keeps correcting. Next support is around 84.50 USD, but I don`t think it will trade that low.

I will leave you with "How Low" from Jose Gonzalez. A fantastic artist.


Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oi ETF (NYSE:SCO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Oil Trading Near Support

Oil sold off quite a bit recently and is now trading near support.

I will be watching oil carefully trying to gauge its next course of action, a successful test of the support or a break lower into the low eighties.

I will leave you with a Wyckoff`s quote, "There is no place in the modern world for the unskilled; no one can hope for any genuine success who fails to give himself the most complete special education. The trained man has all the advantages on his side; the untrained man invites all the tragic possibilities of failure."

Have a great trading day.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Interesting Outlook On Oil Prices

Dr. Marc Faber was on CNBC earlier this week and gave a very bullish outlook on oil prices:

"Looking at the dynamics of the oil market, I think that investing in oil is quite desirable for 2 reasons:

First of all, if the optimists are right, and we have a global economic recovery, and it would appear for the time being to be the case...because during the crisis of 2008 and 2009, oil consumption in the developed world went down, but in emerging economies it continued to go up. But now, in the developed world its picking up, so total global oil consumption is rising and that will put pressure on oil prices.

But if you believe in a horror scenario, which eventually brings about high inflation and then war, oil is also very desirable because it will lead to interruptions on supply. In either case, if you are very bullish or very bearish, you should own some oil or energy equities."

Have a great weekend.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Initial Claims, Earnings & VXX ETF

Initial Claims data came stronger than expected and futures rallied a few points after the report. Pre-open is still down for the US indexes but I would not be surprised to see a recovery attempt to yesterday`s slide. Volatility seems to be back. Yesterday the IPath Volatility ETN (VXX) rallied the most in many weeks.

The market reaction to earnings reports have been disappointing, especially on Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC) and yesterday`s FFIV. FFIV had an outstanding earnings track record and sold off 22% after hours after releasing earnings. That is quite a beating. Jim Cramer is still very bullish on the stock and Twitted this morning that F5 Networks (FFIV) is a buy down here. It does not look like a good idea to me...


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Is The Market Tired?

Apple (AAPL) blew up estimates yesterday evening but the futures are not very impressed in the pre-market session. The market is obviously overbought, and a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" may very well unfold.

Apple (AAPL) is up 1.7% in pre-market and I would not be surprised if it closes lower today. I have the sense that the Steve Jobs news was not fully discounted yesterday because of the scheduled earnings release.

I will leave you with a fantastic music track from one of my favorite artists:


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

If You Must Play...

“If you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.” - Chinese Proverb

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

How Problematic Is Oil`s Rise?

“Whenever the size of the energy sector in the global economy reached 9 percent, we went into a major crisis. It was in the 1980s and it was the same in 2008. Right now we are at about 7.8 percent and if you go above $100 per barrel to $120 per barrel, you get to that 9 percent level.” - Sabine Schels, a commodity analyst at Merrill Lynch

Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) , iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP) , ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) , Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Steve Jobs: How To Live Your Life

"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life." -Steve Jobs, Apple (AAPL) CEO

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Nvidia (NVDA) Short & Steve Jobs.

Nvidia (NVDA) will probably drop on Steve Jobs` news that he is taking a medical leave. The short play on Nvidia (NVDA) would obviously work anyway, but this news will be the catalyst for the drop. I am anxious to see it opening lower and going down tomorrow...

I have a huge respect and admiration for Steve Jobs and I wish him all the best. I will leave one of of his inspirational speeches:


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

The Are No Such Animals As Good Or Bad Stocks

"There are no such animals as good or bad stocks. There are only rising and falling stocks—and I should hold the rising ones and sell those that fall" - Nicolas Darvas

If you are looking for an interesting trading book to read, I highly recommend "How I Made 2,000,000 Dollars In The Stock Market."

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

China Sells Off 3%.

"Investors in mainland China are clearly expressing concerns over inflation and slowing growth that the USA and much of the rest of the world is comfortable ignoring for now. The Shanghai Composite fell -3% on Monday to close almost -16% off its November highs. Investors are increasingly concerned over the government’s ability to contain inflation and steer the economy towards a soft landing." - in The Prag Cap

Related: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (NYSE:CAF), PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF) (NYSE:PGJ)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

What Is Your Edge?

"Every professional knows his edge, but ask an amateur and he’ll draw a blank. A person who doesn’t know his edge does not have it and will lose money." - Dr. Alexander Elder

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Shorting Nvidia And Having Fun. Analyst Can`t Believe This Run.

Wedbush analyst Patrick Wang said the stock was "trading purely on momentum at this point." Well, momentum is a 2 way ticket, now its probably time for some downside momentum on this stock:

But my question is, who the hell buys this stock here?

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Is China Telling Us Something?

Interesting analysis from Cullen Roche, as always:

"Speaking of divergences – there is a growing disconnect between China and the commodity complex. As Chinese stocks have gone largely nowhere in recent months the CRB index has continued to surge. As you can see below Chinese stocks have tended to have a very high correlation with commodities. The fundamental story behind this correlation is well known, but as Chinese investors become increasingly concerned about a slow-down the commodity complex is shrugging it off. Could this be a sign that the global economy is complacent about the speed of the recovery?" - in The Prag Cap

Already made a few trips in Nvidia (NVDA). Its a very tradable stock. Saw the sell off right from the start?

I am short again, this time at higher levels. I am having fun!

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

If Nvidia (NVDA) Isn`t A Short Right Now, I Don`t Know What Is!

Nvidia (NVDA) has been hotter than hot over the last few days. I shorted it on my personal account on the closing bell.

Reuters tried to explain the rise today:

"Nvidia shares surged 12 percent on Wednesday, extending a recent rally ignited by a $1.5 billion legal settlement with Intel and optimism about its ARM-based chip business. Nvidia's stock was $22.83 in afternoon trading, bringing its gain in January to 48 percent. Intel said earlier this week that it would pay Nvidia $1.5 billion to license its patents, settling a legal dispute and validating Nvidia's focus on graphics technology.

Nvidia said last week that it was developing an ARM-based PC central processor under the code name "Project Denver" that would be aimed at everything from workstations to supercomputers, directly challenging"

I think its a short term enthusiasm that will die rather quickly.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

VXX Still Selling Off. Down 3.6% Today.

The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX) that tracks the VIX keeps selling off hard as equities continue to hold their ground and march higher. Here`s a chart of the VXX ETF:

Other topic of interest today is the strength of the Euro versus the US Dollar. The Euro is benefiting from a successful bond auction in Portugal this morning. There`s a squeeze going on that may last for a while...

Also catching my attention is the Lennar (LEN) up day on top of yesterday`s big rally and the excellent timing on our SYNNEX Corporation (NYSE:SNX) Earnings 1 Day play. We sold it when it was up gapping 6.5%. Very good move there.

Have a great day.


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Hugh Hendry On China

As always, a very interesting and entertaining video interview from Hugh Hendry (my favorite high profile hedge fund manager). Hendry considers that China is one of the greatest risks to the global economy.

Related: China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:LFC), China Mobile Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:CHL), Aluminum Corp. of China Limited (ADR) (NYSE:ACH) , PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) (Public, NYSE:PTR), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (ADR) (NYSE:SNP), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Alcoa (AA) Beats On Earnings But Comes Light On Revenues. Down In After Hours Trading.

Alcoa (AA) shares are down about 2% from the regular session close. The company surpassed earnings expectations by a penny. Revenue came to 5.65 billion USD, barely missing the consensus target of 5.68 billion USD, according to the Thomson Reuters survey.

We shorted it on the Earnings 1 Day Plays and it seems that we might have a winner on our hands. Medium to long term, Alcoa (AA) also seems to be overbought and a correction is probably in the cards.

I will leave you with an artist that I found recently and that I have been enjoying listening to during my trading hours. Meet Pete Francis, Untold.

don't go with your dreams untold

don't leave me on that old black road

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

There Are Just 4 Kinds Of Trades

“There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future. You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.” – Larry Hite, Futures Trader

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Is This A Bull Or A Bear Market?

A novice monk approaches his teacher and asks, “Is this a bull market or a bear market?”
The teacher replies, “If it is a warm day, and I say that it is winter, will you still wear your heaviest coat?”

I thought you would enjoy this short story. On other topic, we are starting the "Earnings 1 Day Setups" and will play some of next week`s earnings. The stocks reporting on Monday are: Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:AYI), Helen of Troy Limited (NASDAQ:HELE), Standard Microsystems Corporation (NASDAQ:SMSC), Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA), Apollo Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:APOL), Spectrum Control, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPEC), WD-40 Company (NASDAQ:WDFC). I will select the companies with the best earnings track record to go long before the earnings and the companies with the worst earnings track record to go short.

Have a great Sunday!

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

We Are Starting The "Earnings 1 Day Setups" Today

Earnings season has arrived and we are getting ready to play the "Earnings 1 Day Setups". We had a great time playing these in the last quarter. I am looking forward to them once again!

Stocks reporting on Monday are: Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:AYI), Helen of Troy Limited (NASDAQ:HELE), Standard Microsystems Corporation (NASDAQ:SMSC), Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA), Apollo Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:APOL), Spectrum Control, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPEC), WD-40 Company (NASDAQ:WDFC)

I will pick one or two to buy/sell short each day and I will send it to subscribers before the close.

Have a great weekend!

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Employment Report Was A Big Disappointment For Bulls

Non farm payrolls came at 103,000, way, way below the whisper number. There was one Wall Street firm even calling for a 580,000 number... Can you imagine that?

I had a very decent week. Looking forward to the weekend.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Novellus Systems (NVLS): Is This A Perfect Textbook Correction?

Novellus Systems (NVLS) has traded down for 5 consecutive sessions, finding support right on the 50 day simple moving average. I am expecting the market to be under pressure today, but if I am wrong and the market rallies, Novellus Systems (NVLS) will probably be a very good pick.

As I wrote in the last post, its art day on the Oil Trader`s Blog. I am sharing with you Rabi Khan`s "Soul Bird 9". A true masterpiece.

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Lubrizol (LZ) A Former High Flyer Sold Off For 7 Straight Sessions.

This is a stock that I played a few times in the second half of last year when it was hot and marching higher through 100 USD. The stock is not in high demand these days and has sold off for 7 straight sessions.

Probably it will find support between 95 and 100 USD. Lubrizol (LZ) is now officially on my radar screen.

Its art day here on the Oil Trader`s Blog. I will leave with a magnificent piece from Tony Soulie, "Yellow City":

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Nice Oil Reversal. We Played It To Perfection.

I managed to grab 100 ticks out of this reversal today. Oil was oversold and after some hesitation on the EIA inventory data, oil marched higher. Its the best trade of the year so far on the Trading Service.

I am closing my trading for the day, protecting my P&L. I am leaving you with my favourite band, The National:


Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA) , iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG), Murphy Oil Corporation (Public, NYSE:MUR) , Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Will Surging Oil Prices Cause A Replay Of 2008?

“Oil prices are entering a dangerous zone for the global economy. The oil import bills are becoming a threat to the economic recovery. This is a wake-up call to the oil consuming countries and to the oil producers….

Oil exporters need clients with healthy economies but these high prices will sooner or later make the economies sick, which would mean the need for importing oil will be less…It is a very telling story. 2010 rang the first alarm bells and 2011 price levels could bring us to the same financial crisis times that we saw in 2008″

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist

Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA) , iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) , iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG), Murphy Oil Corporation (Public, NYSE:MUR) , Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Very Interesting Trading Material By John Magee

Jeff Saut’s latest included some interesting thoughts which I wanted to pass along. Not only is he turning cautious (after really nailing the Q4 rally), but he added some New Year’s resolutions from John Magee the author of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends which I thought readers might enjoy:

A very interesting note from Raymond James`Jeff Saut, quoting John Magee (the author of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends):

"With these thoughts in mind, I leave you with the following quip titled “Resolved; An Investor’s New Year’s Resolutions” by John Magee. To wit, resolved, that in the coming year:

1- “I will not alienate my friends and antagonize my family by reminding the world on every possible occasion how right I was about the upturn – or downturn – in steels, motors, airlines, or whatever.
2 - When I buy a stock I will not mobilize all the good news to make it look pretty. I will try to consider both the favorable and unfavorable angles as impartially as I know how.
3 - I will not close out a stock position that is doing well by me for no other reason than that I have a profit. I will not cut short my gains in a good situation.
4 - I will not hang on to a stock that is persistently going against me. I will limit my loss and close out any position that seems to have gone really bad before I am in danger of serious trouble.
5 - I will not be swayed or panicked by news flashes, rumors, tips, or well-meant advice.
6 - I will not put all my eggs in one basket nor will I be swept off my feet to plunge into some unknown or low-priced stock on a purely emotional basis.
7 - I will not attempt to tell the market what a stock ought to be worth. I will try to understand what the market has to tell me about what people are willing to pay for it.
8 - I will never forget that I am not in the market primarily to prove – to my broker, my friends, my wife, etc. – that I am smarter than everybody else, but to protect and, if possible, to augment my capital.”

Source: Raymond James

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Markets Look Nervy, But VXX Not Moving Much

Related ETF: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (Public, NYSE:VXX)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Get To The Bottom Of What Actually Worked In The Marketplace And Ignore All The Opinions And Theories

"In order to have consistent success, risk must be managed in relation to potential reward as standard operating procedure. You’re not going to make just one trade, rather hundreds or even thousands of trades; it’s all about how much you make on average versus how much you lose on average over time. Lastly, I realized that I simply had to get to the bottom of what actually worked in the marketplace and ignore all the opinions and theories." - Mark Minervini, in The Kirk Report

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Boston Properties CEO: Home Prices Will Continue To Decline For Several Years

"Home prices will continue to decline for several years. We’ve seen home prices go down now for four months in a row, according to the Case-Shiller Index , by 1.3 percent in the last month. So it’s an accelerating downtrend in those prices. This is on top of three to four years of declines."

Mort Zuckerman, the chairman and CEO of Boston Properties

Related: Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN), KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL), D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Do You Want To Guess?

If you guess this stock, I will offer you a 1 month membership. :)


TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Goldman Sachs: No More QE, Rates Will Stay At Zero Till 2013.

“As we’ve gotten more optimistic about growth, we’ve taken down the QE2 expectations, we don’t think that beyond the $600 billion that has been announced we don’t think that they will add additional money. In terms of the level of interest rates, we still think that they will basically be at zero in 2011 and probably in 2012 as well. Inflationary concerns aren’t warranted, he explained, especially considering the sluggish growth in jobs.

I find it hard to believe that we’ll get higher inflation, broadly speaking, at a time when we have a 9.8 percent unemployment rate.”

Jan Hatzius, chief US economist for Goldman Sachs, CNBC

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Today`s Commodity Mover: Natural Gas (NG)

Natural Gas is rallying over 5 % today and has been rallying for a few session now:

Being the most erratic commodity I know, we can go either way from here. Natural Gas is always trying to fool everybody and that I why I nicknamed it "The Little Demon".

Related: United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG), SandRidge Energy Inc. (NYSE:SD)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Fear In Non Existent - VXX Keeps Moving Lower

The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), continues to move lower. Fear is non existent on Wall Street these days.

I was reading Marc Faber`s analysis for this month and interestingly enough he is calling for a January correction (he cites an overbought market and investor sentiment). If he is right this time, the VXX ETF should surge.

I am very busy trading, so can`t really expand the post. Have a great trading day!

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.

Goldman Sachs Price Targets For 2011: S&P 500 Index, Oil, Natural Gas, Euro Currency, Yen, Gold & Copper

Here`s a table with Goldman Sachs price targets for 2011:
Here`s what I would like to highlight from their projections:

- GS sees the S&P 500 Index going nowhere for the next 3 months;

- They are very bullish on stocks medium to long term, as they see the S&P ending 2011 at 1450;

- GS expects 100 USD oil 6 months down the road but they see it going nowhere in the next 3 months;

- GS is still very bullish on the Euro Currency - they expect the cross to go back to 1.5000 by year end;

- interestingly enough they are bullish on the YEn vis-a-vis the US Dollar; they expect USDJPY to rally to 90.00 by year end;

- And what about gold? They see no bubble there - their target is almost 1700 USD an ounce for the end of the year;

- GS is also very bullish on the British Pound;

- Natural Gas will still be going down in 2011, stabilizing at around 4.00 USD;

- On interest rates, they see the 10 Year yields rallying 50 bp in the US and only 30 bp in Euroland;

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWJ), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) , United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD)

TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.