An interesting trading quote, “If you don’t know the weak points in your strategy, it isn’t because they don’t exist but rather you haven’t discovered them yet!” - Charles Kirk
I am going into the weekend sitting on cash after a good run. I have no bias on the market right now and I am looking forward to start a new trading week on Monday with no positions on.
I will leave you with an amazing music track, Metric, "Help I`m Alive":
How will the session end today? Crude Oil is well under 100 USD now, so that is not scaring markets...will the bulls pick the market up from here? Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF)
Stocks are rallying a bit, trading inversely to Nymex Oil futures. I think the rally will probably hold, as I expect the Middle East tensions to start pressuring the markets less and less as the week progresses.
Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF)
"Big oil spike overnight as brent oil surges over $8 to top $119. The latest price was roughly $116, however, the price movements are extremely volatile. There’s no telling how much higher or lower prices could be in the next 24 hours" - in The Prag Cap
"If the situation in the region were to worsen in a way that it encompasses other oil producing countries as well in the future, the oil supply-demand balance could change very rapidly. In particular, if the crisis were to spread to Saudi Arabia, (possibility of which is quite low at present according to our Senior Political Analyst Alastair Newton), there can be real threat to global oil production, the impact of which is impossible to ascertain on prices. In addition, the recovery in Middle East oil production would depend upon the extent of damage to oil infrastructure during the crisis and the extent of restoration of stability. Overall, we do not rule out the possibility of oil prices touching record highs in excess of US$200/bbl in the near term, should the MENA crisis continue to spread over the coming weeks." - by Nomura
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
Interesting price action on Nymex Oil Futures today. The market topped (at least for now) at 99.95 USD per barrel just 5 ticks away from the psychological and technical milestone of 100 dollars a barrel.
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
Yesterday`s session was the first dark candle in a while. Will yesterday`s drop be met with a renewed "buy the dip" mentality or will we have some follow through on the downside during the rest of the week? I am betting on the second scenario.
What to learn how to drive fast? Check out this amazing video.
Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF)
The market will lose in a few days what it took weeks to build. That is the beauty of downside price action... Its fast and furious. Some standouts today, NetFlix (NFLX) down 6%, FedEx (FDX) down 3,7% (I am short FDX), Micron Tech (MU) down 6%. The stocks that are down the most today are also the most overbought. No surprises there. We are close to testing the 20 day SMA on the S&P 500 Index. This correction will probably take the index to the 50 day SMA.
Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF)
Nymex Futures coming down a bit from the highs: The Libyan story is far from over and I expect a new oil rally soon. But I am not playing it though. The oil market is way too volatile for me and in a news driven market, we are at a major disadvantage.
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
"That is our concern, regardless of the margins of disruption, if the $100 per barrel of oil is continued in 2011, the burden of oil to the global economy is as bad as 2008." - Nobuo Tanaka, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency
Libya`s unrest is causing panic buying in crude oil with Nymex Crude Oil Futures surging 9% and Brent Futures trading above 107 USD per barrel. Central bankers are probably panicking as well with the inflationary implications that the Middle East tensions may have.
Index futures are down on Globex, but probably there`s still plenty of downside there.
The US dollar hesitated before making a move and is rallying now almost 1 percent against the euro. The hesitation was probably caused by the fear that the US military would have to take action soon. Those fears seem to be dissipated by now...
Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
US markets are closed today, but Nymex Crude Oil Futures are up 3 percent on Globex trading. The Libya situation is being watched carefully and many multinational oil companies have evacuated their staff.
Very interesting price action going on Weight Watchers International, Inc. (NYSE:WTW): The stock is up 14 sessions in a row, including yesterday`s 45% surge on earnings. Who is going to buy this stock now?
Check out this amazing chart of the Nasdaq 100 Futures on the regular session. Today is 14th consecutive green candle (close above the open). I am pretty sure this party is ending fast. Apple (AAPL) is down today on Steve Jobs` health rumors and NetApp (NTAP) is also down 10% after disappointing on earnings/ guidance. I am expecting the index to make new lows on the session and close lower.
Have a great day!
Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) , Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (NYSE:RAX) , Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Its a very, very busy day on the economic front. Coming out later today: CPI, Initial Claims, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed Survey, EIA Natural Gas Report and if that was not enough, Ben Bernanke will speak at 10.00 ET.
Lots of data for the market to digest.
I will leave you with a fantastic video. Meet the Lamborghini Gallardo Spyder. Well, its not a Ferrari, but its exciting enough for me.
"Oil price surged on Wednesday after Israel's foreign ministers said two Iranian warships planned to sail through the Suez canal en route to Syria." in Reuters
Brent Oil Futures were trading above 104 USD a few minutes ago.
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
Even with today`s big price swings the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX) is flat to down. With the Middle East tensions still hanging plus a very overbought market, conditions seem to be in place for a volatility spike:
I bought this trading book many years ago but never read it. Maybe when I take a couple of weeks off I may go through it. But many trader friends have told me that its one of the best books around. This is an excerpt of the Final Note:
"Even after you have learned all of the skills set forth in this book, at some point in time it will probably occur to you that your trading is simply a feedback mechanism to tell you how much you like yourself in any given moment. After you have learned to trust yourself to always act in your best interests, the only thing that will hold you back is your degree of self-valuation.
That is, you will give yourself an amount of money that directly corresponds with what you believe you deserve based on some value system you acquired at some point in your life. The more positive you feel about yourself, the more abundance that will naturally flow your way as a by-product of these positive feelings. So, in essence, to give yourself more money as a trader you need to identify, change or decharge anything in your mental environment that doesn't contribute to the highest degree of self- valuation that is possible. What's possible? Stay focused on what you need to learn, do the work that is necessary, and your belief in what is possible will naturally expand as a function of your willingness to adapt." - Mark Douglas, in the Disciplined Trader
After reading the final note, I am even more curious to read this book. When I do, I will post my review here on the blog.
"Of 188 fund managers polled around the world, a net 67% say they are overweight global equities — the highest reading since the survey began asking the question in April 2001, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for February." - in CBS Market Watch Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) , Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (NYSE:RAX) , Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
"The S&P 500 continues to hold above its 50-day moving average. We've been above it every day since September 2, 2010. This is the 11th longest streak since 1932" - in Stock Twits
NetFlix (NFLX) was downgraded by Morgan Stanley this morning. They cited valuation, I cite extreme overbought condition... Anyway, Morgan Stanley (MS) is helping my market call on NFLX.
I will leave you with Arcade Fire live at Madison Square Garden in New York on 8/5/2010:
Check E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (NYSE:DD) recent run. Its been trading up for an astonishing 11 consecutive sessions. It has never happened before with DD.
Markets are starting the week with no direction at all. Have a great trading day.
The Egypt liberation rally seems to be dead by now. Nymex Oil Futures are also selling off but I am not sure about the long term implications of these developments to the future of oil prices. I think this will be bullish long term but the market is again trading on short termism. That`s ok, as I am a short term and sometimes ultra short term market player.
I am closing my books for the week and I will leave you with a good quote, "Your opponent to successful trading is not the markets nor other traders, but yourself." - Peter Brandt, professional trader
Related ETFs: Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (NYSE:EGPT) , United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS)
"For our part, we expect a combination of stronger US growth, a strengthening dollar, temperate inflation and generally higher risk-asset prices to raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, particularly as real rates normalize higher. Even so, momentum is a powerful market force, and it’s unclear how long strong investor demand will persist. Given these competing tensions, gold does not screen as a compelling tactical opportunity in our framework.” - Goldman Sachs Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS)
Talking about high-flyers...I will introduce Rackspace Hosting (RAX) to the debate. This stock will report earnings after the bell. Are you planning to play it either way?
I would never buy a stock so stretched going into the earnings release. Thinking in reverse if I add to take a position in it, I would certainly short it. I always like to think in reverse when shorting. I always ask to myself, "would I consider buying it here?". If my answer comes, "No! Never!", than I know I have a good potential short candidate on my hands.
The market has been drifting lower in a slow and steady fashion, almost in disguise. After hitting 1322.50 on Tuesday, the eMini S&P Futures have been slowly trending down.
Yesterday there was a rumor on the Street that Paul Tudor Jones was calling the top. Well, he was dead wrong in August (the Tony Robbins` bear call in August is believed to be related to PTJ) but he may very well be right now. Anyway the bearish call was quickly played down by his funds PR`s but my take on it is this, "where there`s smoke...there`s fire".
Anyway, it can`t amaze anybody that a seasoned and successful investor like Paul Tudor Jones calls a market top after such a run. Of course the market is overbought, and it will eventually correct. And with the February`s bearish seasonality plus a very overbought market, the case for a meaningful correction is straight forward.
As you know I am a Montblanc lover. This is my lucky pen (Montblanc`s Toscanini special edition):
"To this day, I will often ask a money manager what his or her biggest mistake has been so far. I have found that the best traders seem to remember their failures better than their successes, as I do" - Michael Steinhardt, No Bull
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Rare Element Resources Ltd. (Public, AMEX:REE) has a 14% daily turnover of its outstanding shares. That is one of the stocks of the moment:
The stock made recent highs around 18 USD and has been trending down in 2011. This a fast, very speculative stock. If you like quick action, this is a stock for you.
On a different topic, I will share with you one of my favorite watches. Meet the Breitling Cosmonaute:
"Stock prices and Treasury bond yields represent the collective wisdom of hundreds of millions of investors who control scores of trillions of dollars worth of assets. Prices and yields are rising because the outlook for the economy is improving daily. The Fed cannot ignore these powerful fundamental forces for much longer." - in Calafia Beach Pundit
I love this trading range example that I found on the Pragmatic Capitalist. The article shows how Wal-Mart (WMT) tripled its earnings per share over the last 10 years and the stock...did nothing. Its the multiple contraction phenomenon in its purest form:
"Though its shareholders experienced plenty of volatility over the past 10 years, the stock has gone nowhere – it fell prey to a cowardly lion. Over the last decade Wal-Mart’s earnings almost tripled from $1.25 per share to $3.42, growing at an impressive rate of 11.8 percent a year. This doesn’t look like a stagnant, failing company; in fact, it’s quite an impressive performance for a company whose sales are approaching half a trillion dollars. However, its stock chart led you to believe otherwise. The culprit responsible for this unexciting performance was valuation – the P/E – which declined from 45 to 13.7, or about 12.4 percent a year. The stock has not gone anywhere, as all the benefits from earnings growth were canceled out by a declining P/E. Even though revenues more than doubled and earnings almost tripled, all of the return for shareholders of this terrific company came from dividends, which did not amount to much." - in The Prag Cap
Why do you prefer pure price-based analysis versus technical indicators?
I need to give ample credit to those traders who successfully use technical indicators. I know and respect a number of traders who make heavy use of indicators.
But for me, I have no time for technical indicators for a number of reasons. Mainly, my problem is that technical indicators are nothing more than a derivative of price. When I can study price directly on a bar chart – and it is price that I must trade – then why would I want to study a derivative of price. For example, I trade gold – there is no market for trading the stochastic measures or relative strength index of gold.
Second, I am a minimalist. I want my trading plan to be a simple as possible. Indicators would have a way of complicating my trading plan.
Third – and not finally, because I could go on and on about this subject – reliance on technical indicators can be counter productive. For example, the most profitable bull markets are those that become and remain obscenely overbought. So, the traditional use of RSI and stochastics can predispose a trader to the wrong side of a massive price trend.
Again, I honor those traders who make money with technical indicators, but as a general rule I think the “indicator industry” is a sham. - in Amazon.com
I tend to agree with Peter. I am also a minimalist and I tend to use price more than any other indicator. I have just bought his latest book on Amazon. I haven`t read any trading books for a couple of years and I was not planning to, but I will make an exception. This seems to be pretty good.
My music selection today goes to The National - Bloodbuzz Ohio:
"The irony is that in real time, I never fully feel like I am trading successfully because I am always aiming for performance that is higher than I am attaining. I am generally my own worst critic and constantly set the bar higher than my last jump. The result is that it is difficult for me to crow about the “successes” of my trading career.
But, to the degree I have been consistently successful through the years, I believe it is due to three factors. First, I am obsessed with risk management. I spend more time and mental energy focusing on risk control protocols than on anything else. Managing losses and losing periods is my number one priority. If I can just tread water during the inevitable tough periods, sooner or later I will find myself caught in a favorable tide.
Second, my trading approach is overly simple by design. The result is that I know with as much certainty as is possible with a discretionary approach when there is a trade entry in my program. It does not mean that the trade will be profitable – only that the trade is there.
Third, I have tried to engage market speculation systematically, breaking down the process of trading into every conceivable component. What flows from this is an understanding of what components of trading are controllable and measurable and what components are uncontrollable. By the way, whether the next trade or series of trades will be profitable is not a controllable factor. Once a trader learns this -- it is then possible to remove ego from the equation." - Peter Brandt
“This week will be characterized by a drift down in crude prices on days where either no new tensions arise or where political progress is perceived. Investors should therefore consider taking profits on all or a portion of their remaining long positions.” - in a JPMorgan analyst report
Related ETFs and stocks: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) , iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLE) , Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) , ConocoPhillips (Public, NYSE:COP) , Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO), Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) , Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
I am buying this book. Haven`t read a trading book in a while, but I have the sense this one is pretty good.
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Chinese benchmark 1 year deposit rates will be lifted by 25 basis points to 3 percent, while one-year lending rates will also be raised by 25 basis points to 6.06 percent. Will this set the tone for today`s session? The market is so overbought that I would not be surprised if the market sold off 20 or 30 points (S&P 500 Index).
As you know, I am an art lover. I will leave today with an amazing James Blakeway`s Times Square photo: Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM) , Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (NYSE:RSX), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Dennis Gartman said ICE’s move is terribly bearish for cotton (on Thursday, the IntercontinentalExchange announced a crackdown on cotton speculation, ICE intends to require large cotton contract buyers to prove they have an “economically appropriate” reason for their orders. That "economically appropriate" reason, by the way, means a business has exposure to cotton prices and requires a hedge. A clothing manufacturer, for example, hedges its input costs with futures):
“It reminds me very much of the change that was done in the early 1980s when silver was skyrocketing higher and the governors of the COMEX said all trading would be for liquidation only. Silver went from $50 to $10 within two months.” - in CNBC
Related: PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
"Today’s consumer credit report was in some ways very bullish and in other ways extremely bearish. The Federal Reserve reports that consumer credit increased by $6.1B in December compared to November. Not surprisingly, the analysts were looking for a $2.4B increase so their losing streak on predicting economic data continues. Credit card debt rose for the first time since August 2008. This is all consistent with the better economic data we’ve been seeing lately, however, from a 30,000 foot macro view this is not a good sign." - in the prag cap
Related: American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) , Visa Inc. (NYSE:V), MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
"One of my favorite posters in my office is of a military sniper in the field, peering out from ground cover. The caption beneath the picture reads, "The sniper's greatest weapon is a sharply honed intellect. He combines a mastery of stealth, situational awareness, ballistics and precision shooting skills into one of the most lethal weapon systems to ever strike fear into the enemy."
If the sniper became too aggressive and excessively bored with sitting in the field waiting for the right shot, he might leap from his cover and begin spraying the enemy with fire. Most of the shots would probably go wild, and the out-of-control sniper would quickly be located and mowed down. No, the sniper waits for the ideal shot: "stealth" and "situational awareness" are essential tools of the trade. Being a sniper means combining aggression with exquisite self-control and judgment. It is controlled aggression." in Traderfeed
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Related ETF: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Today I want to share with you one my trading routines. As I place over 100 trades per week, many of them very, very short term oriented (a few minutes only) I don`t really know how well I am trading until I gather all my trading information on my "Trading Weekly Recap". I like to organize data by contract, to see how much I made per futures contract, how many trades I did and how was the average result.
That helps me a lot to structure my trading and to find strengths/ weaknesses that may not be clear at first sight.
I will leave you with a magnificent quote, "A budget tells us what we can't afford, but it doesn't keep us from buying it." - William Feather
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
"There is sufficient oil (in the market) and there have been no interruptions, but if they close Suez, that could take the oil price to $200." Rafael Ramirez, Venezuela Oil Minister
Related ETFs and stocks: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) , iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLE) , Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) , ConocoPhillips (Public, NYSE:COP) , Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO), Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) , Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
"I think it's entirely unfair to attribute excess demand pressures in emerging markets to U.S. monetary policy, because emerging markets have all the tools they need to address excess demand in those countries. It's really up to emerging markets to find appropriate tools to balance their own growth." - Ben Bernanke in a speech at the National Press Club in Washington
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Ok, I am feeling a bit funny today. Its not really my secret but I have to say that I can`t imagine myself trading without drinking a Red Bull.
I am looking forward to watch LA Lakers against New Orleans Hornets. I love sports betting and I have been getting better and better at it. In my view, its very similar to trading. Its speculation* in its purest form. By the way, I also have a bet on Dallas and on Atlanta. I am having fun!
*Speculation defined on Merriam Webster: to meditate on or ponder a subject
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
"We’re optimists by nature. The natural order of the world is growth. Trees tend to grow, and economies do, too. Real economic growth solves most problems and is the best antidote to high deficits, but the problems that we have now won’t be solved by growth. They’re simply too big. Unless we have another Industrial Revolution or another profound technological revolution like electrification in the 1920s or the IT revolution in the 1990s, we will not be able to grow enough to pull ourselves out of the debt hole we’re in." - By John Mauldin, Investors Insight
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
"For me this is a year where we see gold trade between $1300 - $1500 and I see continued upside from there over the next couple years." - Newmont Mining CEO
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Its also interesting to note how the US dollar inverse correlation to the stock market is gone. Today the US dollar rallied strongly against the Euro currency and the stock market sold first and then rallied back.
Today was the biggest US dollar rally in many weeks.
Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM) , Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (NYSE:RSX), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Green, green , green and green. This is what the eMini S&P Futures did so far this week. But there was a sudden pick in intraday volatility and as George Soros so wisely puts it, "Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established."
I would not be surprised if today`s close would mark the high for this bull run.
Enjoy this amazing sound,
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
"Saudi Arabia is perfectly unstable, like Egypt" - Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Nvidia (NVDA) has made one of the most spectacular moves I have seen on a stock. Now NVDA is more than overbought and if a stock market correction unfolds, NVDA will be hurt.
Have a great trading day!
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Here`s an interesting chart that overlaps the S&P 500 Index and the VIX Futures:
Because of the use contango/ carrying costs being long the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX) for the medium/ long term is a losing proposition. But, the VXX is an excellent day trading tool. I have recently added it to my trading arsenal.
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM) , Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (NYSE:RSX), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
"The market is never wrong in what it does; it just is. Therefore, you as an individual trader interacting with the market—first as an observer to perceive opportunity, then as a participant executing a trade, contributing to the overall market behavior—have to confront an environment where only you can be wrong, and it's never the other way around. As a trader, you have to decide what is more important—being right or making money—because the two are not always compatible or consistent with one another."
Mark Douglas, in The Disciplined Trader
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO) , iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
With input prices going through the roof and CPI rising slowly or not rising at all, companies will not be able to pass along the surging input costs: "While we are seeing price increases in most commodities we are still seeing deflationary trends in labor rates, housing, auto, credit and consumer goods." - in The Prag Cap
So, compressing profit margins will be the story going forward. Of course if the the situation in the Middle East spirals out of control, we will have a severe correction on stocks. But things are not deteriorating fast there, and that is probably good news.
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) , McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) , Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM) , Lubrizol Corporation (NYSE:LZ) , Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) , The Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
While I do not trade or follow biotechs and pharmaceuticals I found this passage to be particularly interesting. Its related to today`s Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX) 70% plus drop.
“These days it seems that a lot of drugs are guilty until proven innocent. It’s hard to imagine a clinical study that could satisfy the FDA that would cost less than $100 million and take less than six years to complete.”
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
Carlos Slim calls out “erroneous and very dangerous” U.S. monetary policy. "It sparks increases in commodity prices ... there are going to be very delicate social consequences everywhere.” - in Seeking Alpha
Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
I want to share with you this brilliant quote I found on Seeking Alpha today:
"There is an old saying among professional racetrack handicappers: The losing player is the one who tells you he breaks even; the breakeven player is the one who tells you he is a consistent winner; and the winning player is the one who tells you it’s a tough, tough game, with great dedication required for success."
Markets are opening with an up gap. Many are attributing it to the first day of the month seasonality but don`t forget that February is a rough month for the stock market.
Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
After a big 2-day rally, Nymex Crude Oil Futures looks a bit overbought and ready to correct. CL Futures are down half a percent in pre-market trading at 91.76 USD (March Contract) and 94.00 USD (April Contract).
I will leave you with a great band, Nouvelle Vague:
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
"Monetary policy is a source of great concern, since the Fed is in uncharted waters. Three years, ago, if you had told just about any economist in the world that the Fed was about to purchase well over $1 trillion worth of securities in a relatively short time span, they would have reacted with forecasts of imminent hyperinflation, but only after protesting that such a scenario was virtually impossible in the first place. But it has happened, and nobody knows yet what the endgame is going to be. So far there hasn't been any overt inflation problem, but there is a lot of action in the gold and commodity markets that might be precursors to a general rise inflation." - in Calafia Beach Pundit
Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)
TraderHMS offers a full trading subscription service. But there`s much more to life then trading. That is why this blog covers everything HMS loves outside of the markets: good music, art, cars, traveling and sports.
