Source: Gluskin Sheff
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CHV), Murphy Oil (MUR), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil (MRO), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Sandridge Energy (SD), SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE)
Mar 31, 2011
Interesting Chart: Oil Prices, CPI & US Recessions
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CHV), Murphy Oil (MUR), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil (MRO), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Sandridge Energy (SD), SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE)
Mar 30, 2011
Will NetFlix (NFLX) Rally For The 8th Consecutive Session?
NetFlix (NFLX) has been in rally mode recently benefitting from a few upgrades. Goldman Sachs revised their price target on the stock to 300 USD and that ignited this rally. Now, after 7 in a row what can we expect from NetFlix (NFLX)?
Futures are up, so NetFlix (NFLX) will probably be trading up in pre-market. That will probably be an interesting short term shorting opportunity.
JobsFest will begin today. Its a trilogy that will end on Friday morning. We have ADP today - Initial Claims tomorrow - and a grand finale with Friday`s Employment Report. After all said and done, the market will probably be just a few points up or down from where is trading today, but emotions will certainly be running high. Wall Street at its best.
I will leave with Top Gear`s Caparo T1 car review. With its advanced carbon fibre construction, the Caparo has twice the power-to-weight ratio of the Bugatti Veyron (put your speakers loud, please):
Futures are up, so NetFlix (NFLX) will probably be trading up in pre-market. That will probably be an interesting short term shorting opportunity.
JobsFest will begin today. Its a trilogy that will end on Friday morning. We have ADP today - Initial Claims tomorrow - and a grand finale with Friday`s Employment Report. After all said and done, the market will probably be just a few points up or down from where is trading today, but emotions will certainly be running high. Wall Street at its best.
I will leave with Top Gear`s Caparo T1 car review. With its advanced carbon fibre construction, the Caparo has twice the power-to-weight ratio of the Bugatti Veyron (put your speakers loud, please):
Inventories: API & DOE
The API inventories were released late Tuesday and showed that U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 5.691 million barrels last week, gasoline stocks fell by 1.953 million barrels and stocks of distillates fell by 112,000 barrels.
The Department of Energy's inventories report is coming out later today at 10.30 AM ET. Crude inventories are expected to rise 1.5 million barrels, gasoline stocks are seen falling 1.7 million barrels and supplies of distillates are also expected to fall 400,000 barrels.
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), Sunoco (SUN), Valero Energy (VLO), Western Refining (WNR)
The Department of Energy's inventories report is coming out later today at 10.30 AM ET. Crude inventories are expected to rise 1.5 million barrels, gasoline stocks are seen falling 1.7 million barrels and supplies of distillates are also expected to fall 400,000 barrels.
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), Sunoco (SUN), Valero Energy (VLO), Western Refining (WNR)
Mar 29, 2011
Banks Are Lower But I Am Not Expecting Any Big Moves Today.
I am expecting a flat, trendless session for today. Banks are under performing early on, reacting to the S&P Case Shiller Index. It seems inevitable that the housing double dip is upon us. S&P's Blitzer commented earlier today on home prices: "The feared double dip may be materializing."
Interesting notes so far in the session: Amazon (AMZN) is in rally mode and solar stocks are also outperforming the market. ReneSola Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:SOL) is up 1.9%.
I will leave you with a fantastic Jay-Z`s live performance:
Interesting notes so far in the session: Amazon (AMZN) is in rally mode and solar stocks are also outperforming the market. ReneSola Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:SOL) is up 1.9%.
I will leave you with a fantastic Jay-Z`s live performance:
You Have To Be Willing To Make Mistakes Regularly
"Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money." - Bruce Kovner, hedge fund manager
Mar 28, 2011
Lethargic Trading Session.
This is probably the most boring trading session ever. ES Futures barely move a full point...
Best stocks on my list today are NetFlix (NFLX), Nvidia (NVDA) and LDK Solar (LDK). NetFlix (NFLX) has been in rally mode since Goldman upgraded it raising the price target to 300 USD.
Best stocks on my list today are NetFlix (NFLX), Nvidia (NVDA) and LDK Solar (LDK). NetFlix (NFLX) has been in rally mode since Goldman upgraded it raising the price target to 300 USD.
Trading Is A Mind Game & Where Is The Snake?
"The markets have absolutely no power or control over you, no expectation of your behaviour, and no regard for your welfare." - in The Disciplined Trader
Markets are opening flat. I Twitted today`s funny moment but can`t help to post it here again, "Experts say the snake that escaped from the Bronx Zoo may be seeking its natural habitat and is heading for Wall St." :)
Markets are opening flat. I Twitted today`s funny moment but can`t help to post it here again, "Experts say the snake that escaped from the Bronx Zoo may be seeking its natural habitat and is heading for Wall St." :)
Big Momentum On These Two Energy Stocks: Southwestern Energy (SWN) And Sandridge Energy (SD)
These two energy stocks have been rallying sharply recently:
In my view these persistent up moves are probably related to some take over speculation. A 11-day consecutive up run in Southwestern Energy (SWN) and a 8-day rally in SandRidge Energy (SD) are a rare event. Both stocks look very overbought right now but I am not tempted to short them because I may very well be surprised with a takeover overnight.
Pre-market is flat to up, I am not expecting any major move on the indexes today. Nymex Oil Futures are trading slightly lower and I am still expecting a 100 USD a barrel test this week. I am short oil.
I will leave with a fantastic play, "LeBron James - Dunk Of The Night":,
Mar 26, 2011
Mar 25, 2011
Gold Looking "Toppy". Again.
Gold surely looks "toppy" here:
There was a very strange late day sell off in gold yesterday sending the April futures contract all the way from 1448 to 1423 in an hour or so. I asked around and nobody seems to really know what happened.
From a trader`s perspective it seems like a decent trade to short it here and place a stop on the high of this recent move. While risking 15 points from the current futures price the reward can be two times that. We can easily correct all the way down to 1400.
I will leave you with a good quote,
"The market does not know if you are long or short and could not care less. You are the only one emotional involved with your position. The market is just reacting to supply and demand and if you are cheering it one way, there is always somebody else cheering it just has hard that it will go the other way" - Marty Schwartz, Pit Bull
Have a great day!
Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold Mining Co. (ADR) (NYSE:HMY), Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX), NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NG)
There was a very strange late day sell off in gold yesterday sending the April futures contract all the way from 1448 to 1423 in an hour or so. I asked around and nobody seems to really know what happened.
From a trader`s perspective it seems like a decent trade to short it here and place a stop on the high of this recent move. While risking 15 points from the current futures price the reward can be two times that. We can easily correct all the way down to 1400.
I will leave you with a good quote,
"The market does not know if you are long or short and could not care less. You are the only one emotional involved with your position. The market is just reacting to supply and demand and if you are cheering it one way, there is always somebody else cheering it just has hard that it will go the other way" - Marty Schwartz, Pit Bull
Have a great day!
Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold Mining Co. (ADR) (NYSE:HMY), Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX), NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NG)
Mar 24, 2011
Buffett: The Euro Can Fall Apart
"Enough of a strain could cause it to fall apart. I know some people think it is unthinkable, I don't think it is unthinkable." - Warren Buffett, in reuters
Lee Cooperman: Equities Are The Winners By Default
Very interesting comments from Lee Cooperman, the legendary hedge fund manager:
E TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:ETFC), Verizon (VZ), Apple (AAPL) and JP Morgan (JPM) are some of his picks.
E TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:ETFC), Verizon (VZ), Apple (AAPL) and JP Morgan (JPM) are some of his picks.
Mar 23, 2011
Libya Is Already Well Discounted
I totally agree with Ritterbusch`s latest comments on Libya:
"The Libyan situation, although far from resolved, appears priced in for the most part with the market discounting a virtual loss of the country's exports for an extended time period of at least six months. Although military headlines could keep price volatility high pitched for a while, bullish impetus off of the Libyan factor appears to have been discounted to the point where any dramatic surprises are more apt to be bearish." - Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates
I am expecting Nymex Crude Oil Futures to test 100 USD per barrel in the next 5 to 10 days.
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CHV), Murphy Oil (MUR), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil (MRO), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Sandridge Energy (SD), SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE)
"The Libyan situation, although far from resolved, appears priced in for the most part with the market discounting a virtual loss of the country's exports for an extended time period of at least six months. Although military headlines could keep price volatility high pitched for a while, bullish impetus off of the Libyan factor appears to have been discounted to the point where any dramatic surprises are more apt to be bearish." - Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates
I am expecting Nymex Crude Oil Futures to test 100 USD per barrel in the next 5 to 10 days.
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CHV), Murphy Oil (MUR), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil (MRO), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Sandridge Energy (SD), SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE)
Clearwire (CLWR), MedNax (MD) And Other Topics Of Interest
The major indexes ended yesterday`s session slightly lower, but there were some topics of interest. Clearwire (CLWR) rallied 6% on a potential deal with Sprint (S). The rally stopped right below the 50 day SMA, so the stock can surely move higher still:
Another interesting stock is MedNax (MD). Mednax has been selling off for 9 consecutive sessions and is now trading near support. It will be interesting to see how it reacts in the next 2 or 3 sessions.
I am also watching Oil. I was expecting oil to move lower after that initial spike on Libya`s airstrikes and test 100 USD per barrel again. It has not happened yet.
On other topic, the New York Knicks have signed some fantastic players recently but their form has been poor. If the Playoffs started today they would face the Celtics... How far will Knicks go on this season`s Playoffs? Not very far by the looks of it.
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), Sprint (S), Clearwire (CLWR), MedNax (MD)
Another interesting stock is MedNax (MD). Mednax has been selling off for 9 consecutive sessions and is now trading near support. It will be interesting to see how it reacts in the next 2 or 3 sessions.
I am also watching Oil. I was expecting oil to move lower after that initial spike on Libya`s airstrikes and test 100 USD per barrel again. It has not happened yet.
On other topic, the New York Knicks have signed some fantastic players recently but their form has been poor. If the Playoffs started today they would face the Celtics... How far will Knicks go on this season`s Playoffs? Not very far by the looks of it.
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), Sprint (S), Clearwire (CLWR), MedNax (MD)
Mar 22, 2011
Jim O`Neill: A Chinese Slowdown Ahead
"The Goldman Sachs China Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has tightened significantly. Its current performance suggests that China’s growth is probably going to be softer in months ahead." - Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management
Related ETFs: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI) , iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)
Related ETFs: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI) , iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM)
Soros: The EU Will Suffer Something Worse Than A Lost Decade
"The European Union will suffer something worse than a lost decade. It will endure a chronic divergence in which the surplus countries forge ahead and the deficit countries are dragged down by the burden of accumulated debt." - George Soros, FT
Today`s Buzz On Oil Trading Desks
Societe Generale sees Brent oil rising to 150-200 dollars per barrel if the unrest in Yemen and Bahrein spreads to Saudi Arabia:
"If large-scale unrest were to spread to Saudi Arabia and threaten Saudi crude exports, we could see Brent trade in a $150-$200 a barrel range" - Societe Generale
In its monthly report the Center for Global Energy Studies wrote,
"The oil market needs a clear unambiguous signal from the OPEC that the lost Libyan production will be replaced and soon" - the Center for Global Energy Studies
While Goldman Sachs (GS) tries to gauge the impact of the japanese demand and supply changes,
"We estimate that 230,000 barrels a day of combined residual fuel oil and direct-burn crude oil will be required to offset the nuclear generating capacity lost in Japan," they said. "To lose a comparable amount of oil demand in Japan would require an 8.0% decline in Japan's economic activity due to the earthquake and its aftermath." - Goldman Sachs
Finally, Jim Ritterbusch is still concern about Yemen, Bahrein and its potential impact on Saudi Arabia:
"Although neither country produces a significant amount of oil, their proximity to shipping lanes and the eastern Saudi oil fields will keep these factors deserving of a significant amount of risk premium for weeks to come," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates
My view is that the short term line of least resistance is down. We can test 100 USD per barrel today or tomorrow. Here the chart for the proxy ETF:
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CHV), Murphy Oil (MUR), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil (MRO), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Sandridge Energy (SD), SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE)
"If large-scale unrest were to spread to Saudi Arabia and threaten Saudi crude exports, we could see Brent trade in a $150-$200 a barrel range" - Societe Generale
In its monthly report the Center for Global Energy Studies wrote,
"The oil market needs a clear unambiguous signal from the OPEC that the lost Libyan production will be replaced and soon" - the Center for Global Energy Studies
While Goldman Sachs (GS) tries to gauge the impact of the japanese demand and supply changes,
"We estimate that 230,000 barrels a day of combined residual fuel oil and direct-burn crude oil will be required to offset the nuclear generating capacity lost in Japan," they said. "To lose a comparable amount of oil demand in Japan would require an 8.0% decline in Japan's economic activity due to the earthquake and its aftermath." - Goldman Sachs
Finally, Jim Ritterbusch is still concern about Yemen, Bahrein and its potential impact on Saudi Arabia:
"Although neither country produces a significant amount of oil, their proximity to shipping lanes and the eastern Saudi oil fields will keep these factors deserving of a significant amount of risk premium for weeks to come," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates
My view is that the short term line of least resistance is down. We can test 100 USD per barrel today or tomorrow. Here the chart for the proxy ETF:
A Few Short Candidates.
Tellabs, Inc. (NASDAQ:TLAB) and F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV) were unable to rally alongside the indexes for the past 3 sessions. These stocks are acting weak and are probably interesting shorting candidates over the medium term:
I will be watching the major banks again today. They underperformed the indexes on yesterday`s session and I am looking for some downside follow through in Citigroup (C), Bank Of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
I will leave you today with a fantastic quote, "More men have become great through practice than by nature." - Democritus (Ancient Greek philosopher)
I will leave you today with a fantastic quote, "More men have become great through practice than by nature." - Democritus (Ancient Greek philosopher)
Mar 21, 2011
All Major US Banks Are Trading Lower Today.
Despite the big rally with the Dow Jones up 185 points right now, all 4 major US banks are trading lower. Bank of America (BAC) is down close to 1 percent, Citigroup (C) is down 2.44%, JP Morgan (JPM) is lower by 0.8 percent, while Wells Fargo (WFC) is also down about 1 percent.
This does not look like a very healthy market rally, does it?
I will leave you with Calexico today. A subtle sound from The Tucson, AZ.l
This does not look like a very healthy market rally, does it?
I will leave you with Calexico today. A subtle sound from The Tucson, AZ.l
Pre-Market Is Green. We Are Moving Up Again.
It seems that the bullish momentum will just keep on going. Stock index futures and Crude Oil futures are trading up substancially in pre-market and a bullish session seems to be on the cards.
Major indexes are up for 2 sessions in a row and if they close higher today it will be they will extend the sequence to 3 consecutive up closes. If that happens we will probably be short term overbought and ready to reverse again. Let`s see what happens later today.
There were a few interesting bullish comments on Japan over the weekend. Barron`s weekend cover is "Buy Japan" and Buffett also made some bullish comments about japanese stocks.
I will leave you with one of the best alternative rock bands of out time:
Major indexes are up for 2 sessions in a row and if they close higher today it will be they will extend the sequence to 3 consecutive up closes. If that happens we will probably be short term overbought and ready to reverse again. Let`s see what happens later today.
There were a few interesting bullish comments on Japan over the weekend. Barron`s weekend cover is "Buy Japan" and Buffett also made some bullish comments about japanese stocks.
I will leave you with one of the best alternative rock bands of out time:
Mar 18, 2011
Investing/Trading Twitter Ranks
I started Twitting just a few months ago but I am loving the experience. I have been trying to make the TraderHMS Twitter the best in the trading space but I have still plenty of room to go before I reach the size of some of the mammoths listed below.
There are fantastic Twitters out there and my favorite on the trading/investing theme is ZeroHedge`s. They twit a lot and have great sense of humor. Anyway, here`s Twitter ranking by followers on the Trading/Investing space:
WSJ 716,812
CNBC 277,939
ReutersBiz 209,237
Jim Cramer 193,718
Bloomberg News 192,774
StockTwits 117,566
Nouriel Roubini 41,494
Yahoo Finance 23,278
ZeroHedge 21,524
CNBC Fast Money 16,646
AbnormalReturns 8,063
Hedge Fund Investor 7,131
Benzinga 5,944
Barry Ritholtz 5,281
VIXandMore 4,197
Mark Mobius 4,105
Futures Magazine 4,067
David Faber CNBC 3,648
Bespoke (BIG) 3,394
Eric Jackson 3,384
Joe Saluzzi 2,430
Briefing.com 2,047
PragCap 1,808
StockCharts.com 1,760
TraderHMS - OilTradersBlog 411
I am sure I will be moving up the ranks (can`t go lower :)) and be in a dignifying position by next year. After all, the market works and quality sooner or later is rewarded.
PS: Jim Cramer has more followers than Bloomberg. What about that?
Have a great weekend!
There are fantastic Twitters out there and my favorite on the trading/investing theme is ZeroHedge`s. They twit a lot and have great sense of humor. Anyway, here`s Twitter ranking by followers on the Trading/Investing space:
WSJ 716,812
CNBC 277,939
ReutersBiz 209,237
Jim Cramer 193,718
Bloomberg News 192,774
StockTwits 117,566
Nouriel Roubini 41,494
Yahoo Finance 23,278
ZeroHedge 21,524
CNBC Fast Money 16,646
AbnormalReturns 8,063
Hedge Fund Investor 7,131
Benzinga 5,944
Barry Ritholtz 5,281
VIXandMore 4,197
Mark Mobius 4,105
Futures Magazine 4,067
David Faber CNBC 3,648
Bespoke (BIG) 3,394
Eric Jackson 3,384
Joe Saluzzi 2,430
Briefing.com 2,047
PragCap 1,808
StockCharts.com 1,760
TraderHMS - OilTradersBlog 411
I am sure I will be moving up the ranks (can`t go lower :)) and be in a dignifying position by next year. After all, the market works and quality sooner or later is rewarded.
PS: Jim Cramer has more followers than Bloomberg. What about that?
Have a great weekend!
Ending The Week On Bullish Mode
It seems that we are going to end the week on a bullish note. Pre-market is again positive and the fears about Japan are not affecting markets anymore.
The initial target on this up move is probably the 50 day moving average that stands at 1302. We are still a few dozen points away from it but I would not be surprised to see the rally extend a bit further.
Oil is trading higher on the US dollar weakness and on Libya. We are probably nearing a short term top there.
I will leave you with a magnificent Derrick Rose slam:
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
The initial target on this up move is probably the 50 day moving average that stands at 1302. We are still a few dozen points away from it but I would not be surprised to see the rally extend a bit further.
Oil is trading higher on the US dollar weakness and on Libya. We are probably nearing a short term top there.
I will leave you with a magnificent Derrick Rose slam:
Related: United States Oil Fund (USO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Mar 17, 2011
Major Indexes Down 3 Sessions In A Row. Time For A Rebound?
It sure looks like we are in rebound mode this morning. ES Futures are up 16 points and Nasdaq futures up 24.50. Markets surely look oversold in the very short term:
There are many rebound candidates. Qualcomm (QCOM) for example is down 9 sessions in a row:
Some defensive names like Wal-Mart (WMT) have also been beaten up and this stock is trading near support:
I will leave you with "Price Tag" - Jessie J:
Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
There are many rebound candidates. Qualcomm (QCOM) for example is down 9 sessions in a row:
Some defensive names like Wal-Mart (WMT) have also been beaten up and this stock is trading near support:
I will leave you with "Price Tag" - Jessie J:
Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
Mar 16, 2011
Markets Tanking. Japan Related? Not Sure.
All of the sudden the S&P 500 Index is negative for the year...What about that?
Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
What To Expect From Today`s Session?
Well, after this recent surge in volatility I would not be surprised to see a low range, "zig-zag" session on the S&P 500 Futures. ES Futures are trading at 1276.00 pre-market signaling a flat opening for equities.
NetFlix (NFLX) is still on a sugar high from yesterday`s Goldman Sachs upgrade and is trading up 2.81% in pre-market.
Nymex Oil Futures are on the rise again, but are not making any headlines now as Japan takes the central stage. Nymex Oil is just below 99 USD per barrel.
If you are looking for value plays, I have two names for you. Intel (INTC) is a very cheap and oversold stock while Dell (DELL) is trading close to the earnings surge a few weeks ago.
I will leave you with a beautiful IWC watch:
NetFlix (NFLX) is still on a sugar high from yesterday`s Goldman Sachs upgrade and is trading up 2.81% in pre-market.
Nymex Oil Futures are on the rise again, but are not making any headlines now as Japan takes the central stage. Nymex Oil is just below 99 USD per barrel.
If you are looking for value plays, I have two names for you. Intel (INTC) is a very cheap and oversold stock while Dell (DELL) is trading close to the earnings surge a few weeks ago.
I will leave you with a beautiful IWC watch:
Mar 15, 2011
Down Gap. How To Play It.
US markets will open with a down gap today. The japanese situation is not under control yet and markets are panicking. The Nikkei 225 fell 10.55 percent overnight (I have never seen anything like it before) and markets around the world are also feeling the heat. In Germany the DAX is down over 4 percent.
What should we expect for today? If there aren`t any further developments on the nuclear front we can open lower and then rally. In general the US companies will benefit from the production stoppage that is under going in Japan. But fear is fear and we can sell off for a few sessions before reality kicks in. Anyway, in my experience these down gaps are usually good buying opportunities.
Which stocks will I be looking for a long play? Probably the usual suspects, Nvidia (NVDA), Deere (DE) and Ford (F). I am also following Dell (DELL) with interest as its pulling back to where it was before the up gap on earnings day. So, there will be an active session, with lots of things to monitor. I will close a swing short I have in hand, move into cash and look for new opportunities.
And we should not forget the FOMC Meeting statement at 2.15 pm ET. But I am not expecting nothing that could really move the market from that front...
Have a great day!
What should we expect for today? If there aren`t any further developments on the nuclear front we can open lower and then rally. In general the US companies will benefit from the production stoppage that is under going in Japan. But fear is fear and we can sell off for a few sessions before reality kicks in. Anyway, in my experience these down gaps are usually good buying opportunities.
Which stocks will I be looking for a long play? Probably the usual suspects, Nvidia (NVDA), Deere (DE) and Ford (F). I am also following Dell (DELL) with interest as its pulling back to where it was before the up gap on earnings day. So, there will be an active session, with lots of things to monitor. I will close a swing short I have in hand, move into cash and look for new opportunities.
And we should not forget the FOMC Meeting statement at 2.15 pm ET. But I am not expecting nothing that could really move the market from that front...
Have a great day!
Mar 14, 2011
US Treasuries: Bearish And Considering Shorting
"On one hand the news in Japan may lead to slower global growth and therefore a bid to US Treasuries/drop in yields, but on the other hand, Japan is the 2nd biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries and may elect to sell in order to repatriate funds back home. That may lead to upward pressure on US yields." - Peter Boockvar, Miller Tabak
As you know I am getting more and more bearish on US Treasuries. We are close to a very good "shorting spot."
Here`s another trader drinking Red Bull before the opening :),
Related: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) , iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF)
As you know I am getting more and more bearish on US Treasuries. We are close to a very good "shorting spot."
Here`s another trader drinking Red Bull before the opening :),
Related: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) , iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF)
Nikkei Futures Coming Off The Lows. How Will The Yen Trade Later Today?
Pretty active trading today on Nikkei Futures. Having traded as low as 9130, the futures are recovering some of the losses and are now trading at 9300. Keep in mind that the Nikkei cash index closed at 9620.
Another interesting topic there for forex traders is if the BoJ will keep intervening to weaken the Yen. Here`s the USDJPY chart:
Another interesting topic there for forex traders is if the BoJ will keep intervening to weaken the Yen. Here`s the USDJPY chart:
Latest From Japan`s Nuclear Situation
"The head of the UN nuclear watchdog said Japan's massive earthquake and tsunami had shaken and flooded nuclear power plants but their reactor vessels remained intact and radiation release was limited." - in Reuters
With Gold Prices Above 1400 USD, Why Is Newmont Mining (NEM) So Low?
I was just going through some charts and I came across Newmont Mining (NEM):
The stock has been trading down for a while, near 1 year lows...Why is this stock so depressed?
The stock has been trading down for a while, near 1 year lows...Why is this stock so depressed?
Markets Lower. Japan Crashes.
Markets are trading lower this morning with S&P Futures down 8.50 points and european indexes also trading down. But the talk of the day is of course the 6% plunge on the Nikkei 225 and the subsequent sell-off on Globex.
Marc Faber was very bullish on Japan a few weeks ago, “If I had to make a bet for the next ten years in terms of equity markets, I would seriously consider a very strong weighting here in Japan. Once the debt market starts to go down, the yen will begin to weaken and that will lift equity prices. I would buy equities at the present time. If I look at the next five to ten years, the interest payments on the government debt in Japan and the fiscal deficits will become very burdensome and that will necessitate monetization. That will bring about a huge shift of money out of cash and bonds into equities.”
I wonder what are his views now on the japanese market, but I assume he is buying aggressively. Maybe he will share his outlook later today on Bloomberg or CNBC.
On the US front I am very curious to see how the markets react. We are at an important point, where we can begin a more severe correction or resume the bull market after the recent weak longs shakeout. The S&P 500 Index is standing at the all important 50 day simple moving average. I am expecting a volatile week.
I also want to highlight Lubrizol`s - Berkshire deal. Berkshire will pay $135 per share, a 28% premium to Lubrizol's closing stock price Friday of $105.44. Lubrizol (LZ) was one of my favorite stocks last year and I played it on the long side a few times, especially when it crossed over 100 USD for the first time.
Have a great day!
Marc Faber was very bullish on Japan a few weeks ago, “If I had to make a bet for the next ten years in terms of equity markets, I would seriously consider a very strong weighting here in Japan. Once the debt market starts to go down, the yen will begin to weaken and that will lift equity prices. I would buy equities at the present time. If I look at the next five to ten years, the interest payments on the government debt in Japan and the fiscal deficits will become very burdensome and that will necessitate monetization. That will bring about a huge shift of money out of cash and bonds into equities.”
I wonder what are his views now on the japanese market, but I assume he is buying aggressively. Maybe he will share his outlook later today on Bloomberg or CNBC.
On the US front I am very curious to see how the markets react. We are at an important point, where we can begin a more severe correction or resume the bull market after the recent weak longs shakeout. The S&P 500 Index is standing at the all important 50 day simple moving average. I am expecting a volatile week.
I also want to highlight Lubrizol`s - Berkshire deal. Berkshire will pay $135 per share, a 28% premium to Lubrizol's closing stock price Friday of $105.44. Lubrizol (LZ) was one of my favorite stocks last year and I played it on the long side a few times, especially when it crossed over 100 USD for the first time.
Have a great day!
Mar 11, 2011
The Week In Oil, Sandridge Energy (SD) And Double Petroleum (DBLE)
This chart illustrates how was the trading week in oil using the United States Oil Fund (USO) as a benchmark for Nymex Crude Oil Futures:
Despite all the Middle East tensions, "Days Of Rage" fears, crude oil was under selling pressure all week.
Some energy names were hard hit. Names like SandRidge Energy (SD) and Double Eagle Petroleum (DBLE) were under pressure as we can see on the charts below:
I will leave you with my favourite band. The National playing "Terrible Love":
Despite all the Middle East tensions, "Days Of Rage" fears, crude oil was under selling pressure all week.
Some energy names were hard hit. Names like SandRidge Energy (SD) and Double Eagle Petroleum (DBLE) were under pressure as we can see on the charts below:
I will leave you with my favourite band. The National playing "Terrible Love":
Markets, Ford (F) And A Good Quote
There was a nice reversal right after the open. Futures were down on the japanese earthquake news but quickly reversed and the indexes are now trading flat to higher.
A stock that I am long and that benefits from this natural disaster is Ford (F):
Nikkei Futures are also 260 points below fair value. Not sure if its an opportunity but the risk/reward of a long play there looks good to me.
I will leave you with a good quote "Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm" - George Ellis.
Have a great day!
A stock that I am long and that benefits from this natural disaster is Ford (F):
Nikkei Futures are also 260 points below fair value. Not sure if its an opportunity but the risk/reward of a long play there looks good to me.
I will leave you with a good quote "Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm" - George Ellis.
Have a great day!
Mar 10, 2011
Markets Down On Spanish Debt Downgrade, Initial Claims Data
Markets are looking a bit vulnerable here...stocks are going down in a day where oil prices are also correcting. But the S&P has tested the 50 day SMA and bounced back. What will the rest of the session bring?
On other topic, check NetFlix (NFLX). Staging a violent countertrend rally in a day where most stocks are down...
But what is really shining today is my gold short line:
On the music front, I will introduce you to a NYC band. Meet "The Bravery". A retro rock sound, very good indeed.
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), NetFlix (NFLX), SPDR Gold ETF;
On other topic, check NetFlix (NFLX). Staging a violent countertrend rally in a day where most stocks are down...
But what is really shining today is my gold short line:
On the music front, I will introduce you to a NYC band. Meet "The Bravery". A retro rock sound, very good indeed.
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), NetFlix (NFLX), SPDR Gold ETF;
Mar 9, 2011
Bill Gross Dumps US Treasuries From Its Fund
"Pimco has dumped US Treasury bond exposure in its flagship Total Return Fund and increased cash, a move that makes sense given Pimco Chief Bill Gross's statements that Treasurys are over-valued." - in CNBC
iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF) , ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)
iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF) , ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)
Goldman Sachs: 2Q Brent Forecast
Goldman Sachs sees Brent at 105 USD per barrel in the second quarter (Brent is trading at 113.40 USD per barrel right now):
“Saudi Arabia has announced that it will cushion the Libyan supply losses, but we think that production was already significantly above the reported levels in November and December. We believe that Saudi production could be 0.5-1 million b/d higher than the official numbers suggest, which would imply that OPEC spare capacity has already dropped below 2 million b/d. This pushes forward the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about six months. Consequently, we raise our 2Q11Brent forecast by $4.50/bbl to $105/bbl.” - Goldman Sachs
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
“Saudi Arabia has announced that it will cushion the Libyan supply losses, but we think that production was already significantly above the reported levels in November and December. We believe that Saudi production could be 0.5-1 million b/d higher than the official numbers suggest, which would imply that OPEC spare capacity has already dropped below 2 million b/d. This pushes forward the drawdown of OPEC spare capacity by about six months. Consequently, we raise our 2Q11Brent forecast by $4.50/bbl to $105/bbl.” - Goldman Sachs
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
Soros: I Am A Little Bit Less Optimistic For The U.S. Economy Than Most People
Soros on how the spending cuts may affect the US economy:
"While currently the U.S. economy is improving, that is going to be a serious brake on that in terms of employment and effective demand. So I am a little bit less optimistic for the U.S. economy than most people are currently." - in Reuters
Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
"While currently the U.S. economy is improving, that is going to be a serious brake on that in terms of employment and effective demand. So I am a little bit less optimistic for the U.S. economy than most people are currently." - in Reuters
Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
Mar 8, 2011
Gross: The Most Overvalued Area Of The Bond Market
"The Treasury market typifies perhaps the most overvalued area of the bond market. It becomes a question of musical chairs to a certain extent: who gets out first and who's the last one looking for a chair on June 30." - Bill Gross, Pimco
Related: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF)
Related: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF)
Improve Your Trading Or It Will Degrade.
"Improve your trading or it will degrade; there`s no coasting in this game. You can be creative in research but don`t trade creatively; in other words, stick to your systems. Trading is a little like morality in that it`s a lot easier to know what you should do than do it." - William Eckhardt, Futures Trader
Nothing More Than A Volatile Trading Range
Too much action in the last few sessions, but we have nothing but a volatile trading range on the S&P 500 Index:
Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
Trading Like A Pro
"When and where you initiate a trade is a lot less important than how large you trade and how you liquidate." - William Eckhardt, Futures Trader
Roubini: 140 USD Oil Will Cause Double Dip, Stall
"The oil price going up to where it was in the summer of 2008, at 140 dollars a barrel, at that point some of the advanced economies will start to double dip. In the U.S., where growth is accelerating fast, a 15 to 20 percent increase in oil prices, there won’t be double dip but growth reaching a stalled speed again. "- in Bloomberg
Mar 7, 2011
Cotton Futures Are Limit Up Again.
Its quite amazing what has been happening in the Cotton Futures market over the last few months,
And there are no BAL shares available for shorting at the moment. A true and classic short squeeze going on here?
I will keep an eye on it, maybe I will place a trade later this week.
Related: iPath Dow Jones-UBS Cotton Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE:BAL)
And there are no BAL shares available for shorting at the moment. A true and classic short squeeze going on here?
I will keep an eye on it, maybe I will place a trade later this week.
Related: iPath Dow Jones-UBS Cotton Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE:BAL)
Mar 6, 2011
Nymex Oil: The Highest Settlement Price Since Sept. 26, 2008
Nymex Light Sweet Crude for April delivery settled up 2.51 dollars per barrel, or 2.5 percent, at 104.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since September 26, 2008. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled up 1.18 dollars per barrel, or 1 percent, to 115.97 dollars a barrel.
I will leave you with another fantastic track from Metric:
Have a great sunday!
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
I will leave you with another fantastic track from Metric:
Have a great sunday!
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
Oil & US Stocks Correlation
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund (USO), SDPR S&P 500 Index ETF
Mar 5, 2011
Hard Work, Intelligence, Patience And Mental Discipline
"No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than successful speculation." - Robert Rhea
Mar 4, 2011
In Need Of A Good Laugh? Watch This.
I laugh every time I play it...
These are the best commercials ever (I uploaded another great one on a earlier post today)
Have a great weekend!
These are the best commercials ever (I uploaded another great one on a earlier post today)
Have a great weekend!
Greenspan on US Treasury Yields
My favorite remark from Alan Greenspan today was: "When people say rates are very low, the answer is: Wait..."
Related: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) , iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT) , iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF) , SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV)
Related: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) , iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT) , iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF) , SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV)
"Maestro" Greenspan: The Risks For The US Economy
"There is no question that the momentum of this economy, leaving out the oil price issue, leaving out Euro problems that have emerged, and very specifically leaving out the budget problems, this economy is really beginning to pick up momentum. The fascinating issue for forecasters is, how do you factor in all the negatives." - Alan Greenspan, CNBC
Does Wall Street Prefer A Bad Jobs Report?
An interesting analysis of the Employment Report and why what is good for Main Street may be bad for Wall Street:
"As the labor markets recovers the Fed will be pressured to end its easy policy approach. It’s clear that QE2 was never really necessary to begin with. The fiscal policy of the last 2 years, specifically, a massive 10% budget deficit is injecting the private sector with the cash that is needed to offset the effects of de-leveraging. Monetary policy has helped, but to a far lesser degree. And QE2 has actually shown substantial signs of detracting from the recovery. But Wall Street has loved it and rightfully so – never has there ever been such explicit commentary from the Fed that encourages speculators to go out and bid up risky assets.
But while more jobs might be great for Main Street they’re bad for Wall Street. Not only will investors begin to worry about corporate margins and being closer to the end of the equity cycle than the beginning, but the pressure will mount for the Fed to finally raise rates and most certainly end QE2. This doesn’t mean the bull market will be over, but a few large NFP reports will likely put pressure on the markets as they begin to discount the potential for a tighter Fed. For Wall Street, less is better. A big miss in Friday’s NFP report is not a bad thing. And a level not too hot and not too cold (150K or so) is just right….This ensures an easy Fed, continued profits, and likely higher stock prices." - in The Prag Cap
Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
"As the labor markets recovers the Fed will be pressured to end its easy policy approach. It’s clear that QE2 was never really necessary to begin with. The fiscal policy of the last 2 years, specifically, a massive 10% budget deficit is injecting the private sector with the cash that is needed to offset the effects of de-leveraging. Monetary policy has helped, but to a far lesser degree. And QE2 has actually shown substantial signs of detracting from the recovery. But Wall Street has loved it and rightfully so – never has there ever been such explicit commentary from the Fed that encourages speculators to go out and bid up risky assets.
But while more jobs might be great for Main Street they’re bad for Wall Street. Not only will investors begin to worry about corporate margins and being closer to the end of the equity cycle than the beginning, but the pressure will mount for the Fed to finally raise rates and most certainly end QE2. This doesn’t mean the bull market will be over, but a few large NFP reports will likely put pressure on the markets as they begin to discount the potential for a tighter Fed. For Wall Street, less is better. A big miss in Friday’s NFP report is not a bad thing. And a level not too hot and not too cold (150K or so) is just right….This ensures an easy Fed, continued profits, and likely higher stock prices." - in The Prag Cap
Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
Trading: Is Strong Conviction Dangerous?
“There are very few things that are as dangerous as a strongly held conviction about the future.” - Howard Marks
Mar 3, 2011
John Taylor: A Recession Is Coming
A very good video interview, "FX Concepts' Taylor Says U.S. Heading Toward Recession"
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- John Taylor, chairman and founder of FX Concepts LLC, discusses the possibility of the U.S. falling into a recession. Taylor, speaking with Betty Liu and Jon Erlichman on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop," also discusses the outlook for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve monetary policies and the euro. (Source: Bloomberg)
He sees the Euro currency rallying all the way to 1.4500 in June and then reversing. Very good interview, I highly recommend it.
On other topic, "Gold Breakout: Real Or Fake?" - it was a fake after all, wasn`t it?
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- John Taylor, chairman and founder of FX Concepts LLC, discusses the possibility of the U.S. falling into a recession. Taylor, speaking with Betty Liu and Jon Erlichman on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop," also discusses the outlook for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve monetary policies and the euro. (Source: Bloomberg)
He sees the Euro currency rallying all the way to 1.4500 in June and then reversing. Very good interview, I highly recommend it.
On other topic, "Gold Breakout: Real Or Fake?" - it was a fake after all, wasn`t it?
Is NetFlix (NFLX) Going To Retest 200 USD Today?
I am watching NetFlix (NFLX) with particular interest today. Will it test 200 USD again today? Its currently trading at 205 USD after hitting 200.35 USD earlier today. If the market loses some strength, I bet it will...
What about the LeBron video I uploaded in the last post? :)
Markets Strong Today. Eyeing Oil And Gold.
Futures are printing higher and it seems that we will open with an up gap today. Initial claims will come out at 8.30 ET and the ISM Services Index at 10.00 ET. Markets are also eyeing tomorrow`s Employment Report.
I think we are in a noisy market now, trading one step forward and two steps back. Basically a market where mean reverting techniques are being very profitable for intraday/ short term swings.
I am also watching oil and gold futures with particular interest. They both look poised for a short term sell-off.
Now, if you want to relax a bit during the trading session, here is a video for you. Have a great trading day!
Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
I think we are in a noisy market now, trading one step forward and two steps back. Basically a market where mean reverting techniques are being very profitable for intraday/ short term swings.
I am also watching oil and gold futures with particular interest. They both look poised for a short term sell-off.
Now, if you want to relax a bit during the trading session, here is a video for you. Have a great trading day!
Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
Markets Worried About The Negative Impact Of Oil Prices On Global Growth
"The copper/oil divergence is a clear sign that markets are now worried about the negative impact of oil prices on global growth." - in The Prag Cap
Oil: How Fast Prices Rise Matters
“It also matters how fast oil prices rise. Oil price increases – like any price increase – transfer spending power from consumers to producers.
This can have a distributive effect, but shouldn’t affect total income. If prices are rising slowly, stronger demand from producers can offset the adverse impact on consumer demand. If prices rise sharply, however, the adverse income shock – which is immediate – may not be offset by a commensurate increase in producers’ spending.
That is why sharp increases in oil prices can do more damage to growth than an equivalent increase over an extended period.” - by Morgan Stanley
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
This can have a distributive effect, but shouldn’t affect total income. If prices are rising slowly, stronger demand from producers can offset the adverse impact on consumer demand. If prices rise sharply, however, the adverse income shock – which is immediate – may not be offset by a commensurate increase in producers’ spending.
That is why sharp increases in oil prices can do more damage to growth than an equivalent increase over an extended period.” - by Morgan Stanley
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
Mar 2, 2011
Iran Produces 4.6% Of Global Supplies
"The bigger fear is that the oil supply upheavals spread. Bahrain, Yemen and Algeria are small producers, each with less than 2% of global oil output. But Iran produces 4.6% of global supplies.” - Schwab
Oil Futures Volume Rises To Record
"Volumes on the world's two biggest oil futures markets reached record levels in February, boosted by growth of close to 40 percent in futures and options trade on benchmark Brent and WTI contracts." in Reuters
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLE)
Who Will Buy Treasuries When The Fed Doesn’t?
"Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t? The question really is at what yield, and what are the price repercussions if the adjustments are significant." - Bill Gross, in his March Investment Outlook
Related: iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF) , ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) , iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)
Related: iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF) , ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT) , iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)
Apple (APPL): Will Steve Jobs Attend The IPad Event Today?
I am watching Apple (AAPL) shares today with particular interest. Will Steve Jobs attend today`s IPad event? How will the stock react if he does not attend?
I think its a short with an interesting risk/reward at these prices.
It`s Metric week here at the blog, so I am sharing another masterpiece from this awesome band:
I think its a short with an interesting risk/reward at these prices.
It`s Metric week here at the blog, so I am sharing another masterpiece from this awesome band:
Mar 1, 2011
Gold Breakout: Real Or Fake?
I am not bullish on gold and I have been patiently waiting for a shorting opportunity. I am watching today`s breakout attempt with skepticism.
It has been quite a run lately and even if the breakout is valid, gold is already very overbought and prone to a short term correction.
I also want to add a recent Goldman Sachs` market note on gold I have found on the Pragmatic Capitalist:
"For our part, we expect a combination of stronger US growth, a strengthening dollar, temperate inflation and generally higher risk-asset prices to raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, particularly as real rates normalize higher. Even so, momentum is a powerful market force, and it’s unclear how long strong investor demand will persist. Given these competing tensions, gold does not screen as a compelling tactical opportunity in our framework.” - Source: Goldman Sachs
Watch this fantastic Ferrari/Shell video. Turn those speakers on, loud!
Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) , Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM) , AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU) , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NG), New Gold Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NGD)
It has been quite a run lately and even if the breakout is valid, gold is already very overbought and prone to a short term correction.
I also want to add a recent Goldman Sachs` market note on gold I have found on the Pragmatic Capitalist:
"For our part, we expect a combination of stronger US growth, a strengthening dollar, temperate inflation and generally higher risk-asset prices to raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, particularly as real rates normalize higher. Even so, momentum is a powerful market force, and it’s unclear how long strong investor demand will persist. Given these competing tensions, gold does not screen as a compelling tactical opportunity in our framework.” - Source: Goldman Sachs
Watch this fantastic Ferrari/Shell video. Turn those speakers on, loud!
Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) , Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM) , AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU) , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NG), New Gold Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NGD)
The Reflex Rally Scenario, Oil And Akamai Tech (AKAM)
After 3 up days on the Nasdaq Composite and 2 up days on the S&P 500 Index, the market looks set for another dip. At least, if we operate under the reflex rally scenario, taking for certain that the indexes won`t hit new highs anytime soon.
I have been listening to Metric recently. Its a fantastic band. Enjoy:
Have a great day!
Related: Akamai Tech (AKAM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF), United States Oil fund ETF (USO)
Nymex Oil Futures are trading up in pre-market 1 dollar per barrel, just below 98 dollars for the April contract. Its a news driven environment there, so I am not playing oil directly these days.
Have you been watching Akamai Tech (AKAM) recently? It topped a long time ago (mid December) and has been breaking every single support since. Now after 8 consecutive down sessions, including yesterday`s 5% plunge, we may have a short term capitulation there. Time will tell.
I have been listening to Metric recently. Its a fantastic band. Enjoy:
Have a great day!
Related: Akamai Tech (AKAM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF), United States Oil fund ETF (USO)
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