Bank Of America`s Brutal Quarter

This is a very impressive chart. A 40 percent plus implosion in Bank Of America (BAC). A picture is worth a thousand words,

Have a great weekend!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Will The Market Finish The Quarter With An Up Day? Probably Not.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

The performance on the last day of the quarter has not been very impressive...

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Meet the New Porsche 911

It`s a stylish car but it`s not a Ferrari...

"No fewer than 90% of the components of the 911 are either new or have been fundamentally revised. This is our approach to the preservation of tradition. And how we do justice to the 911 legend." - Porsche

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Richard Dennis: Trading Rules

"I don't think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it.

I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline." - Richard Dennis, ex-futures trader also known as Prince of The Pits

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

You Need An Edge

In order to be a consistently winner in the markets you need an edge. What is an edge? An edge is simply an indication that there is a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

Find a setup, a profitable setup that fits your style, your schedule and your tolerance for risk. Then become an expert at it. I am pretty sure that money will slowly begin to flow in. As you gain confidence in your setup and in yourself, trading will become natural, easy and profitable.

Remember this Livermore`s quote: "It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of ignorance"

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

We’re In The Midst Of A Monster Ping Pong Match

This is the best description of the current market conditions I have read today,

"It seems we’re in the midst of a monster ping pong match between one gnarly beast of a bear parked just north of 1200 and an equally intimidating bull sitting menacingly at 1120. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t full of anticipation during the last two or three swings. After witnessing the strength of the bear’s serve last week and the rapidity with which it approached support, I was all but convinced 1120 was a goner. But, alas, the bull will not die." - in Tyler`s Trading

With the intensity that bulls and bears have been showing lately the current market conditions remind me of the last US Open final between Djokovic and Nadal. Intense, exciting, nerve cracking and with wild swings on the scoreboard. In that match Nadal or "El Toro" was defeated. Will the bulls be defeated too in this matchup? For now it seems that they will come ahead...

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Rosenberg: There Is Value In European Equities

“If you are looking for value, the radically beaten up European stock market now trades at 26-month lows and at a mere 8X P/E multiple (close to where the S&P 500 was during the summer of 1982).” - David Rosenberg

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

The Infamous Goldman Sachs Rules The World Video

This video is a must watch (I will label it on the funny videos section of the website):

Pretty good stuff, isn`t it? :)

Related: Goldman Sachs (GS)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Success In Trading: 7 Key Components (by Peter Brandt)

Success in trading starts with seven things (by Peter Brandt):

1. Human personality and character traits consistent with assuming risk
2. Proper capitalization
3. A correct perspective of market speculation
4. A comprehensive understanding of risk control protocols and statistical probability theory -using protective stop orders must properly flow out of a correct understanding of probability theory. Using protective stops is not the same thing as sophisticated risk management. Risk management is far more complicated than the vast majority of novice and aspiring traders comprehend
5. A keen understanding of human frailty as the biggest hurdle to profitable market operations - traders need tools for recognizing and managing human emotions
6. The development of a comprehensive trading plan, addressing all possible contingencies. A trading plan must reflect the unique personality of the trader.
7. The patience and discipline to correctly execute the guidelines and rules dictated by the trading plan.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Where Do Internet Users Spend Their Time?

Related: Yahoo (YHOO), Google (GOOG), Facebook, Microsoft (MSFT)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Crazy Volatility Overnight, NetFlix (NFLX) & Nymex Oil

We had some crazy action overnight in Globex trading. Gold Futures had a 130 plus range, trading as low as 1535 and as high as 1666. That could very well be a 1-month range instead of an overnight range...

Index Futures in Europe are rallying big time, but they seem to be coming off from the highs. Anything can happen is one of my trading beliefs. But in times like these I am pretty sure every trader is really believing that everything can happen. The session is not over till its over and I would not be surprised to see a few more swings both ways.

I am still eyeing NetFlix (NFLX) as a long candidate. It`s relative strength has been interesting and the chart also looks good. A short term bottom is probably in for the stock:

As a final note, Nymex Oil is trading at 80.00 right now. It is not really responding to the rally in equities. Interesting divergence there - Nymex Oil may correct a little further before showing a tradable bottom.

Be careful out there.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

NetFlix (NFLX) & Global Markets

NetFlix (NFLX) has been crashing down recently but I noticed that on yesterday`s session it was showing some relative strength. The stock will most likely open lower with the S&P Futures down 23 points but it will be interesting to see how it reacts. If the market stabilizes we can have a short covering rally on this stock:

Markets are nervous and I do not think its all about the Fed. Europe and european banks are near the collapse and the authorities are watching in standstill. And we have across the board liquididation: stocks are down big, but gold and silver are down even harder. Even oil that has been showing some support is down almost 5 percent in Globex trading. It will be an interesting session for sure...

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Trading Is A Mind Game

"Without a proper mental approach to trading, someone trading a “Holy Grail” system could produce mediocre results or even large losses." - Van K Tharp

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Oil Trading Report: Intraday Seasonality

This is a part the first edition of the "Oil Trading Report: Intraday Seasonality" sent to subscribers. It`s a research document that explores the intraday price action in Nymex Oil Futures (also tradable through United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) or iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (OIL).

The market profile shown above is the action in the Crude Oil Futures continuous contract for the past year, shown for each 5-minute period, on average. To help understand what is going on think of owning one CL contract for a 5-minute period for every day the last year. You buy it on the close of the 5-minute bar before the period starts, and then sell it on the close of the 5-minute bar in question. It is important to realize that each bar is an average. The average is made up of the last 260 days of trading.

Of course, the period of a year is too much time gone by, too much water has gone under the bridge. In truth, it is possible to look at the past year, find the trends that are working, and then use them for the next month with a bit of success. The plan is never fixed, and as we all know the market is always changing and we will just keep adapting to it. The plan adapts to the newest best working rules and then follows them for a month, or until they start to falter. The idea is to get more wins than losses, to have an edge on the market.

I am using shorter ranges of more recent data to find seasonal setups to trade intraday and continuously change the plan, adapting to the ever changing market conditions.

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (OIL), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

What A Beautiful Watch

If you are looking to add one new watch to your collection, here is a nice suggestion...

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Expectations Must Be In Harmony With The Possibilities

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. what you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. when you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ or ‘win’ and ‘lose’ no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities. - Mark Douglas: ‘Trading in the Zone’

You can check a list of my favorite trading books here.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

It’s Always A Matter Of Controlling Risk

“It’s always a matter of controlling risk. Risky things are not in themselves risky if you understand them and control them. If you do it randomly and you are sloppy about it, it can be very risky. The key to success is figuring out “Where is the edge? And how do I stay the right distance from the edge?” - Ray Dalio, hedge fund manager, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fun

Watch his latest video interview here: Ray Dalio - A Legend Speaks


You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Ray Dalio: A Legend Speaks

Here`s an excellent interview with Ray Dalio at the Bloomberg Markets 50 Summit in New York.

You can read a very interesting article about Ray Dalio here:

New Yorker - Mastering the Machine

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Global Central Banks Injecting USD Liquidity

Markets shoot higher after the headline hit but it`s still early to know what will be the final market vote on this one. It`s also true that this us dollar injection really shows how worrysome the situation in Europe is right now.

I am still sitting on the sidelines and i only plan to trade very short term, mechanically generated setups. Try to guess direction in a market (SPDR S&P 500 ETF, SPY) like this is like jogging in a mine field. You surely get the adrenaline rush but you can lose a leg too...

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

NetFlix (NFLX) Down 14 Percent In Pre-Market

Another high-flyer meeting gravity...


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Dividends & Treasury Yields

"There's been a lot of discussion recently regarding the fact that many individual stocks are yielding more than Treasuries. Following the August decline in equities, the yield on the entire S&P 500 actually surpassed the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury. Historically this has been an incredibly rare event.

Looking at individual stocks, the number of companies that have a higher dividend yield than the 10-year is almost mind-boggling. As of today, 233 (46%) of the stocks in the index have a higher yield than the 10-year, and more than sixty pay out a yield of more than twice the 10-year." - in B.I.G. Website

Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), General Electric (GE), Intel (INTC), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Frontier Communications Corp (FTR), 3M company (MMM)

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An Useful Trading Belief

I wrote recently about the fundamental truths of trading as the most useful trading beliefs for becoming a consistent winning trader. Here`s another good trading belief that complements the "4FT":

"The best traders trade by finding a niche that fits them and then becoming an expert in that niche" - from SuperTrader, Van K Tharp

I am looking for new trading opportunities and enjoying a couple of days on the sidelines. Have a great day!

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Cavallino Rampante: The History Of Ferrari`s Logo

Its a good day to stay on the sidelines with the potential news flow coming from Europe. Merkel-Sarkozy and the Greek PM will hold a teleconference later today. Not sure if any statement will be made but it sure looks wise to be on the sidelines, especially after a good trading run.

I am uploading a Ferrari official video with the story of the Cavallino Rampante. Enjoy!

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Specialization Vs Jack Of All Trades

"In your knowledge acquisition quest, don’t sacrifice specialization. Don’t become a jack of all trades and master of none." - in Tyler`s Trading

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Porsche Will Unveil The Revamped 911

Description: A Porsche 911 GT2 RS automobile. Porsche AG will unveil the revamped 911 sports car at the Frankfurt auto show. Porsche AG will unveil the revamped 88,000-euro ($123,000) 911 sports car today, seeking to stem declining sales of its iconic model and renew the brand’s heritage as maker of two-seat performance vehicles. - in Bloomberg

Another masterpiece for sure. Can`t wait to see the new 911.

Have a great day!

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Why Do Traders Tend To Cut Their Profits And Let Their Losses Run?

Most people are affected by loss aversion and they have a strong preference for avoiding losses over acquiring gains. For most traders, losing 1,000 USD is not the same as not winning 1,000 USD. It feels different, and according to psychological research, losses can have as much as twice the psychological power of gains. So a 1,000 USD equals to a missed opportunity of 2,000 USD.

But aren`t both a negative change in wealth of 1,000 USD? Shouldn`t our brain process both occurrences in similar ways?

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Mind Power, Determination, Instinct & Experience

Ayrton Senna Qualifying Monaco 91 - The most amazing bloopers are here

On a given day, a given circumstance, you think you have a limit. And you then go for this limit and you touch this limit, and you think, 'Okay, this is the limit.' As soon as you touch this limit, something happens and you suddenly can go a little bit further. With your mind power, your determination, your instinct, and the experience as well, you can fly very high. - Ayrton Senna

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Europe Is Setting The Pace.

Fears of a Greece default are causing havoc in the european stock markets and its shockwaves are being felt in the US markets as well. The german index (DAX Index) is trading at unbelievable low levels, when compared to other major indexes.

In the US market I will be eyeing how my favorite stocks behave in a down market. I am bullish on Nvidia (NVDA) and I am looking forward to keep buying it on weakness and selling it on strength. I also like Mosaic (MOS) and its relative strength, it never really trades down that much, even when there`s panic selling on Wall Street. I would love to go long in the low 60`s but it will only move that far in the indexes really fall apart.

I enjoyed my weekend, playing a lot with my 2 year old kid and I am feeling refreshed and energetic for another volatile trading week.

Nymex Oil is also holding up pretty well. Downside seems limited for now. An interesting strategy on Oil might be selling some lower strike puts (on United States Oil Fund ETF (USO)) and collect some premium. If oil really corrects hard than just go long the commodity at a very depressed/oversold level.

Keep it safe, we are trading in a dangerous, fast-moving market.


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The 5 Fundamental Truths Of Trading

If you hold these core trading beliefs you will tend to do well in trading:

I. "Anything can happen" – the market can go up, down or sideways from any point and negate my edge;

II. "You Don`t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money"
III. "To win in the markets you need an edge" - an edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
IV. "There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any set of variables that define an edge"
V. "Every moment in the market is unique" – so the last trade is independent from the next

This is a short version of Mark Douglas` studies on how to be a successful and consistent trader. It`s very important to know what our beliefs about the market are so I suggest you sit down for a couple of hours and start writing your trading beliefs, the way you think the market works. It`s the first step to write a concise business plan that will structure your trading business.

If you want to know your trading personality type you can also try this short quiz, available on Dr. Van Tharp`s website: Trader Profile. If you want to discuss any of the above subjects feel free to email me anytime at traderhms@gmail.com.

On other topic, the market is still volatile and a down open was bought on the first hour of trading. Ben Bernanke will speak later today, so stay tuned. I am holding long positions on Yahoo (YHOO) and Domtar USA Corp (UFS). I am bullish on Nvidia (NVDA) and still picking it as long intraday plays (I have been doing it for a couple of sessions) and also structurally bullish on Mosaic (MOS) and CF Industries (CF). CF is more of a momentum play and I will be looking to buy both on weakness.

Finally, I am still eyeing natural gas. September`s seasonality is strong and Natural Gas has been following the seasonality script pretty well since early in the year. It`s just trying to go through 4.000 USD. (United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is trading at an important level, breaking 10.00 USD).

Have a great trading day and I hope you enjoy the new layout. Blogging is a very intense experience and from time to time we just need to redecorate the saloon...

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Stock Picks, A Trading Book Review & Art

Pre-market is bullish but in such a volatile environment one of the fundamental truths of trading, "anything can happen" gains an even greater meaning. Anyway we are so oversold that a bounce is probably in the cards, but I have to say that I am bullish on a few names but not very enthusiastic on the indexes (SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)).

I was impressed with Micron Tech (MU) yesterday`s performance, being able to rally from support in a down market:

Other names that I like here are:

- CF Industries (CF): I expect it to test the recent highs above 190 today or tomorrow
- Mosaic (MOS): I am bullish on the ag space - this stock is very attractive on any pullbacks - I am looking forward to buy it on weakness again

I am reviewing "Way Of The Turtle" a book written by Curtis Faith, an original turtle trader, that I highly recommend for systematic traders or aspiring traders. It`s high quality material. I wrote a post about it a few days ago (The Difficulty In Trading Lies Not In The Concepts But In Their Application) and I plan to keep digging into the book and share a few thoughs on its content:

"Traders spend a lot of time developing methods to determine exactly when a trend has begun and when a trade has ended; however all the approaches that are effective have very similar performance caractheristics." - in the Way Of The Turtle

I will leave you today with an art masterpiece, "The Glass Exchange" by Sheila Kirk (watercolor):

The "Financial Titans" clash - do the Bears or the Bulls win? Abstract Glass adds to the competition, its a daily battle ready to shatter the stock record.

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Bullish Action On CF Industries (CF)

I am generally bullish on the agriculture space but CF Industries Holdings (CF) seems to be leading the way. At least considering its momentum. CF Industries Holdings (CF) is trading up 1.7% in a down market and its fast approaching its recent highs, just above 190. Very bullish action indeed:

PS: You can try my newsletter for 10 days free of charge. Just email me if you are interested.

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JL`s Words Of Wisdom: The Game Of Speculation

"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world." - Jesse Livermore

If you haven`t read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and How To Trade In Stocks I urge you to go to Amazon or to your local bookstore and buy it now. It will change the way you approach stock speculation. That I can guarantee you.

I have just sent a long trade setup to subscribers. You can try my newsletter for 10 days free of charge.

Just email me if you are interested.

Have a great day!

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Mosaic (MOS): I Am Bullish On This Stock

I am bullish on this stock. Mosaic (MOS) has been acting very strong in a very heavy market and it looks poised to move higher. Besides I like the sector, agriculture stocks are probably the sector with the best fundamentals going forward (except for down arrows producers as I recently read in a funny tweet). But as I can`t find any down arrows producer I think I will stick to Mosaic (MOS). I do not hold a position right now but I plan to initiate one soon.

Markets are still wild with the european sovereign debt crisis getting uglier. Some european bankers made some frightening comments over the weekend and the german stock index (DAX) plunged on Monday. Of course, german stocks are getting so cheap that sooner rather than later a big rally will unfold there.

I just read a report from a PIMCO stock analyst that cited Ensco (ESV) as a top pick. It`s a deep water drilling company and I am adding it to my radar screen. Here`s Anne Gudefin comments on the stock,

"It is the second largest driller and it's a cheap stock. With oil companies accumulating more discoveries in this segment, there will be a need for more and more rigs and this stock should do well."

Have a great day!

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Bearish Prospects For The European Financial Sector

"Prospects for the financial sector overall are rather limited. The outlook for the future growth of revenues is limited by both the current situation and structurally." - Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Josef Ackermann

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Formal & Self Education

'Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune.' - Jim Rohn

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John Wooden, NFP & European Crisis

"Don't measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability." - John Wooden, Basketball player and coach, nicknamed the "Wizard of Westwood"

I just bought John Wooden`s book and I intend to read it very soon. This guy is an inspiration.

On other topic, we will have NFP in a few minutes. Markets are already tanking...but that is an European story.

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Major Indexes Are Up 4 Sessions In A Row.

Odds favor short positions going into today`s session: September is the worst month of the year for stocks and as I have just tweeted, The last 7 times that the S&P was down more than 5% in a month, it went down on the 1st day of the following month. Add to that the fact that major indexes traded up for 4 consecutive sessions and it seems that statistics clearly favor a short play here.

No real surprises came out of the Initial Claims data but we still have the ISM index coming out in 30 minutes or so. I am not sure if we are still in the phase where "bad data is good because it will force the Fed to add more liquidity" or if we are getting back to the reality trade, "this sh*t is so bad, that we better sell and sell fast before others do."

I will leave you with a joke I have sent to subscribers a few days ago: 'I want to die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather.. Not screaming and yelling like the passengers in his car.'

Have fun and a profitable trading session!

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