1984 Apple Commercial. Brilliant Stuff.

I just bought Steve Jobs` biography (audiobook).

A Trading System That Fits You

My work in modeling top traders suggests that if you are to do well, you must have a trading system that fits you. - in Super Trader, Van K Tharp

The week is starting on a bearish note. EMini S&P Futures are down 15 points in Globex trading and Nymex Crude Oil is down about 1%. I see very limited upside for the risk trade and plenty of downside.

Europe (Italy bonds are selling off) and MF Global will be the drivers today. The Chicago PMI will come out later today. It`s a another fresh economic data for the market to digest.

Have a great day!

Formula For Success

You have to love this quote. Tony Robbins shared it on his Twitter earlier today,

Formula for Success: "Embrace your age, whatever it is, Love your life, get as healthy as you can, move your body every day, be informed, stay engaged, connect with others, use your mind, live with style, be bold, be brave, & walk with confidence." Barbara Hannah Grufferman

Have a great day!

The Hallmark Of A Pro

"The hallmark of a pro is to operate within your own circle of competence and ignore everything else." - Mark Minervini

I totally agree with this. Traders must find their niche and become experts at it, ignoring all the other infinite market variables.

Have a great weekend!

Magnificent Artwork, Jean James

Akaname, Jean James

Trader Talk: An Interview With Mark Cook

A very interesting video interview with Mark Cook, a veteran eMini S&P Futures trader:

Part 1:

Part 2:

The Basis Of All Successful Trading

"Trade with an edge, manage risk, be consistent, and keep it simple. The basis of all successful trading can be summed up in these four core principles." - Curtis Faith

There Is An Inverse Relationship Between Analysis & Trading Results

"I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success." - Mark Douglas

If you are not familiar with trading beliefs and how they affect your trading I suggest that you read Mark Douglas` work.

Nice Reversal. Pre-Market Is Red.

That rally could not really go too far and a reversal was clearly in the cards. Pre-market is red and while we may have a bit of consolidation back and forth as we usually do, I do not expect the recent highs (1216 on the S&P Futures) to be hit again this week.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Fashion Trends & Downside Risks

As you know, my interests are much wider than trading and this site covers everything from trading to music, art, fast cars and fashion. Today I want to share with you this cool sweater from Woolrich John Rich & Bros. It`s a bit on the high-end but I am sure you can find a similar one for about half the price.

Markets are on a upbeat note again. I am bearish and expecting a new down leg soon. Yesterday Jeffrey Gundlach also expressed his bearish views and expects markets to break the lows again. I am not that bearish for now, but a 30 to 50 point correction on the S&P 500 Index is probably in the cards.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Just Keep Working On Improving Your Skills.

“Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.” — Thomas Edison

If you feel you are getting closer and closer to being a profitable and consistent trader, just keep working on it.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

What Will Be The Catalyst For Natural Gas?

Natural Gas has been in a strong downtrend for years. Some argue that natural gas is the solution to end the US foreign oil dependance while others think natural gas will never be a viable energy alternative.

What we do know is that this Administration is not pro-natgas...but if the Republicans win the White House next year that story may change. That could be the catalyst for a long term trend reversal in natural gas.

Graph: United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Ray Dalio: Pain + Reflection = Progress

In his Principles, Ray Dalio declares that acknowledging errors, studying them, and learning from them is the key to success. He writes, “Pain + Reflection = Progress”. Interesting stuff that I wanted to share with you.

Have a great trading day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

It`s Time To Short Again.

After this monster rally this is the time to get bearish and short again. The market is overbought, trading near resistance and the risk/reward seems to favor short setups.

Don`t have much time to blog today, so I will leave you with Vettel driving for the pole position in Monaco. Fasten your seatbelts!


You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

No Bias On The Market.

I have no bias on the market right now and I am just watching on the sidelines. It seems like we will have a quiet week with volatility moving lower.

Nymex Oil had a big rebound from the lows and it may consolidate between low 80`s and 85 over the next few sessions.

I will leave you with the video of the 458 Spider's presentation shot at the Amalfi Coast, at Reggia di Caserta and other breathtaking locations in the Basilicata region:

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Will Our Reader Buy The 458 Spider?

One of the readers just mentioned that he would buy a 458 Spider if the S&P 500 goes to 900. Well, I would love to have a reader with such a magnificent maquina...but 900 is so far away...and the market has been rallying strongly after getting to oversold levels.

Only time will tell. Maybe with a little help from confused european politicians, our reader may very well get it. Of course, it is also needed to stay the course and sit tight through all the volatility on that position if he has the conviction. Do you remember what Jesse Livermore wrote about the markets & gifts?

This is an important weekend. Let`s see what will come out of the European Summit.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Fantastic Ferrari Teddy-Bear(ish)

If you are looking for a gift for your kid and especially if you are on the bearish camp....this is the perfect solution:

I love it. Just ordered one.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Classic Zig-Zag Trading After the Employment Report

We are Zig-Zagging on the S&P 500 Index (SPY) since the data came out. The data was better than expected but we have a few things going against the bull case right now:

1 - better economic data means less probability of bold Fed moves;

2 - market is short term overbought;

3 - there`s an important european summit on Sunday;

Have a great weekend!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Poker - Trading Analogy

That's another way poker might be like trading: It's easy to participate, difficult to sustain success. Many just play for the thrills of winning and losing; relatively few systematically learn from experience and build skills over time. - Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D., expert in trading psychology

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

What Type Of Trader Are You? Find Out.

If you want to find out what is your personality type as a trader, take the Tharp Trader Test here and find out. It only takes a couple of minutes.

It will give you some guidelines to improve your trading.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

I Am A Fan.

I am a fan and an avid user of Apple products. I have the IPhone, the Ipad, the MacBook and the IMac. I can`t remember the last time I used a Microsoft Windows computer...

I will leave you with my favorite Steve Jobs quote,

"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life." -Steve Jobs

It sure is Steve, it sure is.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Fashion Trends.

If you want to look cool this autumn maybe you should consider buying these,

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Mild Or Severe Recession?

ECRI`s Achuthan gave his economic outlook in a recent interview with Fox Business:

"Lakshman Achuthan recently talked to Fox Business to discuss his perspective. Achuthan says the current recession is likely to be shallow, but that there is a serious risk of a shock (a Lehman style event or a Greek event in the current market). Achuthan says the key is to focus on Europe and China to gauge how deep the contraction in these regions becomes." - in the Prag Cap


You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Profit Factor: A Great Way To Evaluate Systems And Trading Strategies

There are a lot of statistics to analyze a trading system`s performance. My favorite is the Profit Factor. It`s the KISS strategy applied to automated trading systems.

The Profit Factor is just the sum of the dollar wins of the system over a certain period of time, divided by the sum of the losses generated by the system over the same period of time.

Here`s a simple example,

Imagine that you are trading Nymex Crude Oil Futures and these your most recent trades (in ticks): -30 +57 -2 +32 -55 +104 -77 +123 -32 -21

Total Wins: +57 +32 +104 +123 >> 316
Total Losses: -30 -2 -55 -77 -32 -21 >> 217

Profit Factor = 316/217 = 1.45

In my experience, profit factors above 1.50 are quite reasonable and PF`s above 2 are great (and hard to find).

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

What A Beauty!

This IPad case from Ferrari is a beauty. I am ordering it!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Big Rally From Oversold "Bear Market Territory Levels".

We are having a big snapback rally from very oversold levels. Not a real surprise.

I am playing defense after a good long play on Mosaic (MOS).

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

There Are No "Quality Stocks".

Mark Minervini wrote a very interesting piece on "quality" stocks. His point is simple, there are no stocks that you can buy without a stop loss and hold them forever. Here`s an excerpt using Coca-Cola as an example:

"The lazy investor buys Coca Cola (KO); he feels “safe” and smart that he bought quality. I can’t tell you how many times I heard the words: “They’re not going to go out of business, it’s Coke.” Maybe not, but the stock could at some point go down 60 or 70 percent and take a decade to recover!

Hey, wait a minute... that actually happened. Coke topped in 1973, declined 70 percent from its high, and then took 11 years just to get back to even. Sure, investors received a dividend of a few percent per year, but that doesn’t even beat inflation, and they were still sitting with a big loss. In 1998, Coca Cola topped again; the stock declined for 5 years and took an almost 50% haircut.

There are plenty of examples among “high quality” companies that had periods when their stock prices were decimated regardless of their status." - by Mark Minervini

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

It`s Make It Or Break It For The S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 is trading at major support from the August lows. It`s "make it or break it" time for the market. It does not look good and a downside break looks the most likely course of action...Time will tell.

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (NYSE:SDS)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Dexia Story Is Hurting Banking Stocks

This European debt crisis can`t really get out of the way. The quick fixes are clearly not working and the boat appears to be sinking. Now Dexia has funding problems and everybody is suddendly thinking, "Leeeeehman".

Bank Of America (BAC) is under 6 USD, Goldman Sachs (GS) is fast approaching 90. The 1100 level on the eMini S&Ps looks very, very vulnerable.

The only pockets of strength in my radar screen are Yahoo (YHOO), Mastercard (MA) and CF Industries (CF).

We are setting up for a very interesting "finale" to today`s session.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

October Is A Bullish Month For Stocks

The third quarter was a dismal quarter for stocks and for risk assets in general. But the seasonal trends for stocks are quite bullish in October:

- Known as the jinx month because of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989, and the meltdown in 2008
- Yet October is a “bear killer” and turned the tide in 11 post-WWII bear markets: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2002
- First October Dow top in 2007, 20-year 1987 crash anniversary –2.6%
- Worst six months of the year ends with October
- No longer worst month
- Best Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ month from 1993 to 2007
- Pre-presidential election year Octobers since 1951, rank last across the board; excluding 1987 still near the bottom
- October is a great time to buy
- Big October gains five years 1999-2003 after atrocious Septembers (Source: Stock Traders Almanac)

On other topic, check out this amazing live performance (Foster the People - Pumped Up Kicks):


Related: SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (NYSE:SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report