Dec 29, 2011

Happy New Year!

I wish all the regular readers a Happy New Year!

Dec 28, 2011

Trading Notes #6

Here are today`s trading notes,

1) A worrying fact, China's stock market is down 32% this year and just hit a new low (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI))

2) I plan to close all remaining long positions today or tomorrow; I plan to end the year with a clean sheet to work on;

3) The Brent/WTI spread continues its new leg lower; It caused some confusion over the year so I would prefer the spread to narrow further so it will be easier to position trade the Nymex Light Sweet Crude Futures;

4) While I see an interesting medium term opportunity in going long Japan, the momentum is not behind that trade yet - (today`s worse than expected contraction in industrial Production)

5) It`s a vacation week - incredibly light volumes again this morning - there`s not much more to do in 2011;

On a leisure note, I will introduce you to the Koenigsegg CCX (245 mph, 0-60 in 3.2 secs. 90 Degree V8 Engine 806 hp, base price is $545,568, Made in Sweden):
You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 27, 2011

Trading Notes #5

Here are today`s trading notes:

1) Quiet bullish session so far - typical of the last week of the year;

2) I have a neutral outlook for the rest of this week as the upside I was expecting has already materialized;

3) It`s a good week to recharge and work on your 2012 trading plan;

4) The US consumer is feeling healthy again, U.S. Dec Consumer Confidence Index rises to 64.5 VS 55.2;

5) One task for this week: find out what was your Profit Factor by instrument traded for 2011; You will probably gather some valuable information for your trading in 2012;

On a leisure note, I will share with you a fine soccer/ football website to track all major leagues. I am watching Arsenal against Wolves on my small screen right now.

SoccerWay, www.soccerway.com

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 23, 2011

Trading Notes #4

Here are today`s trading notes:

1) I expect a very quiet session as it "always" happens just before Christmas

2) A spectacular stat: In 2011 the S&P 500 traveled, close-to-close, 3193 points from the 12/31/10 close; the index itself has moved a mere 3.64 points YTD - now that is a hell of a noisy year!

3) Nouriel Roubini decoded the Durable Goods number, "Excluding the volatile military and aircraft components durable goods fell 1.2%, the worst since January"

4) Some of the best big cap performers YTD, Mastercard (MA) up 65 percent, Humana (HUM), up 62 percent, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) up 56 percent and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) up 75 percent;

5) Big caps that really underperformed year to date, Bank Of America (BAC) down 59%, US Steel (X) down 55% and First Solar (FSLR) down 73%;

6) I wish all the subscribers and regular readers a Merry Christmas!



You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 22, 2011

Trading Notes #3

Here are today`s trading notes:

1) The number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped last week to its lowest level since April 2008 - that is very good news and shows the economy is not double dipping

2) Interesting commentary from Bill Gross, "Zero rates caused too many market distortions; Too late for Fed to correct" - by now we all should have been able to adapt to this market...

3) I was expecting a stronger bounce from Bank Of America (BAC) - still at 5.25 - curious to see how it performs today and tomorrow - maybe it will trade as high as 5.50 by Friday afternoon;

4) EURUSD testing 1.3000 again - I do not expect it to break lower decisively in the next few session;

5) Nymex Oil is trading slightly higher this morning - it should settle around this level for the week;

On a leisure note, I will share with you this fantastic Ferrari tie,



You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 21, 2011

Trading Notes #2

Here are today`s trading notes:

1) Oracle (ORCL) shares plunge 13 percent early Wednesday - company has provided a soft outlook, market punishing the stock hard

2) Doug Kass just Twitted, I am using this "predictable" pullback as an opportunity to add to longs. I expect some seasonal strength into year end - I agree, US stocks will probably move higher over this week and next;

3) FX Concepts' Taylor tells has just said that ECB loans are a form of quantitative easing - if so, very bullish for risk assets (FX Concepts is the world`s biggest currency hedge fund);

4) Bank Of America`s technical strategist says: "Sell EURUSD at market (now 1.3045) risking 1.3255, targeting 1.2510" - my view is that we will have a lot of noise, big 100 pips plus days but in the end we will be just about where we are now;

5) Mortgage Bankers Association reports that the avg 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 4.08% last week, the lowest of the year - slightly bullish for housing

On a leisure note, I will give you a good wine tip (under 20 USD):

ROBERT OATLEY Shiraz Mudgee 2009 (Australia): Bright and jazzy, with black cherry and mint aromas and flavors that skip lively through the finish. Drink now through 2014. 6,000 cases made.
You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 20, 2011

Today`s Trading Notes

There are a few interesting trading notes today:

1) There`s more to life than downgrades, Fitch says Poland outlook may be raised in 'medium term', 'no fears' of recession, deficit plan reduces pressure on rating A-

2) Volumes are drying up fast, Japan volume was the lowest since 2008, 3rd lowest since 2005 - Nikkei added 40 points overnight - it may be an interesting long play for 2012

3) Jefferies Group, Inc. (JEF) is trading at 12.40 (after closing at 11.80) after this morning's earnings - banks/ financials may perform well today

4) The S&P 500 opened near the highs and sold off during the trading day for five straight days - lately, if the market is open, traders are selling - I guess today we will close near the day`s high

5) There a few stocks that are very oversold and likely to bounce...my favorites are Mosaic (MOS) and Bank Of America (BAC)

6) On the presidential race, A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows that Ron Paul has taken the lead in the Iowa caucus race, while Newt Gingrich’s support is fading fast. A different Gallup poll shows Gringrich still holding the lead, but slipping, while The New York Times has Paul in the lead as well - all in all I expect Obama to keep the White House

And because there`s much more to life than trading I will leave you with the Ferrari 458 Italia. Fasten your seat belts!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 19, 2011

If You Are Looking For A Special Wine...

Try this. You won`t be disappointed,

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

The Gold Trade

A very interesting view on gold,

"Gold was a safe haven, a hedge and a speculative trade all at the same time." - Michael Murphy, CEO of Rosecliff Capital, a hedge fund

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Interesting Contrarian View On US Stocks



You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 16, 2011

Oil Trading Near 6 Week Lows

Crude oil tumbled to the lowest level in six weeks as industrial production declined for the first time since April in the U.S., the world’s largest oil- consuming country. (Source: Bloomberg)

I expect volume and activity to slow sharply beginning today. I have a bullish bias for the last 2 weeks of the year based on strong seasonality.

Have a great weekend!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 15, 2011

Fedex (FDX) Sees A Decent Economy

Economic bellwether FedEx (FDX) reported better than expected earnings this morning. They cited strong holiday sales and continuing global economic growth as the primary drivers. On the conference call they said they expect 2.2 percent US GDP growth in 2012 and 2.9 percent global growth. - in The Prag Cap

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 13, 2011

It`s Fed Day. Go To The Gym, Lunch Early And Get Back To The Desk At 2.00 PM

There will be some action after 2.15 PM but probably just some crazy zig-zag action.

It`s a good day to go to the Gym, go shopping...lunch early and get back to the trading desk just in time for the action.

There was a nice clean setup on Nymex Oil Futures late in the session, adding 50 ticks to the pot. It`s over 1000 ticks in 2011 by now just in CL Futures.

I will leave you with a good joke:

Gingrich: "I define marriage as the bond between a man and three or more women." - Andy Borowitz

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 12, 2011

Using Mental Stops

This is just too good, "I put in a "mental stop" once and didn't obey it. That's how I ended up with my first kid."

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

We Face A Bifurcated Market

“We face a bifurcated market: a crisis in the Middle East could send prices through the roof; the eurozone debt problems could trigger a collapse.” - Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citigroup

Related, United States Oil Fund (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Energy (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Emerging Markets, Bank Of America & Trappist Beer

I read a report earlier today that was very bullish for emerging markets. It mentioned the negative correlation between food prices (going down) and emerging market stocks.

As I look at the tape, emerging market ETFs are being crushed. Ishares Brazil (EWZ) is down 3%, Market Vectors Russia (RSX) is down 4% and the EEM, the emerging markets barometer is down 3.3%. Lots of red in that space.

I am also looking at Bank Of America (BAC). My conviction is that it will not print new lows. I think the bottom is in. The stock is down hard today, trading at 5.57 vs. the low of 5.02.

I will leave you with a good belgian beer to taste later today if you have the chance. Meet Chimay`s trappist beers**,
**Chimay Brewery ("Bières de Chimay") is a beer brewery in Chimay, southern Hainaut, Belgium. The brewery is located in the Scourmont Abbey, a Trappist monastery, and is one of the seven breweries worldwide that produce Trappist beer.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 6, 2011

Quote Of The Day

“When you're trading, it's important to have your guns on. You can't be wandering around the Street unarmed, and if you don't know the terrain, you're going to get killed.” - Marty Schwartz, author of Pit Bull

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Video: Seeking Energy Security In The U.S.


Related: Conoco Phillips (COP), Royal Dutch Shell (RD), Sandridge Energy (SD), Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 5, 2011

Spend Less Time Learning New Tools And More Time Using Them

´Knowing about a tool is one thing. Having the guts to use it in a way that brings art to the world is another. Perhaps we need to spend less time learning new tools and more time using them.´ - Seth Godin

Of course Seth was not referring to trading or investing. But he could very well be.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Trading Quote Of The Day

“Manias and bubbles are an integral part of the Age of Inflation because they are caused by too much money and credit.” - Tony Boekh

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Oil Price Between $90 and $100 is Reasonable: BP CEO


Related tickers, BP plc (BP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil (MRO), Murphy Oil (MUR), Transocean (RIG), United States Oil Fund (USO)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Seasonality Is Beating Conditions. No Surprises There.

This is the most bullish period of the year so the rally is no surprise. Even in 2008, when the world was (also) falling apart, stocks managed to rally going into year`s end...

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 2, 2011

Wine Tasting (Wine Spectator)


As you know I am a wine lover. Here`s an introductory video on wine tasting from Wine Spectator.

I am not opening any new positions today. I never like to risk too much on Fridays because if the day gets rough, it will completely ruin the weekend...

Have a great weekend!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Dec 1, 2011

Quoting Keynes On Speculation.

When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?

Tha is a great quote from John Marnard Keynes. He is famous for his economic theories but he was a very good speculator himself.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

China Is Slowing Down, Fast.

I expect a consolidation session in today`s session. I sold into the rally some of the trading positions and I am only holding to a stock pick right now. It`s not time to rush in. We will have the Employment Report coming out tomorrow before the open and some European integration plans will be presented today by Sarkozy.

On the macro front, there were some alarming news coming out of China overnight. The chinese economy is slowing more than previously expected:

“November data showed Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions deteriorating at the sharpest rate since March 2009. Behind the renewed contraction of the sector were marked reductions in both production and incoming new business. The latest survey findings also showed a marked easing in price pressures, with average input costs falling for the first time in 16 months. In response, manufacturers reduced their output charges at a marked rate.

After adjusting for seasonal variation, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – dropped from 51.0 to a 32-month low of 47.7 in November, signalling a solid deterioration in manufacturing sector performance. Additionally, the monthon-month decline in the index was the largest in three years.”


I also want to share with you the Newsletter`s "Joke Of The Day": Dear Amazon: I am not a branding expert, but it does not sound safe to read a book on a device called Fire.

Pretty cool isn`t it?

I posted a fantastic soccer video a couple of days ago. In case you missed it, here`s the link.

Have a great day!

Related stocks and ETF`s: Amazon.com (AMZN), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com