Jan 3, 2012

Trading Notes #7

Gentlemen, start your engines! 2012 trading season is just about to kick-off:

1) 2012 is beginning just like 2011 ended; with another gap, this time a big 20 point up gap on the S&P 500; If the ISM data coming later today is at or above expectations I expect us to rally into the close;

2)US ISM expectations is for a 53.5 reading after last month's surprising 52.7; out at 10.00 am ET;

3) Have you debriefed your 2011 trading season? How high (or how low) was your Profit Factor? What was your best strategy or trading instrument?

4) Are you starting 2012 with a written business plan? Do you know exactly how and when you are going to pull the trigger?

5) According to BBC, Greece warns on Euro exit if bailout is not signed - this story has more episodes than a south american soup opera;

6) UK chief financial officers (CFOs) see the break-up of the Euro as the greatest threat to their businesses in 2012, says Deloitte

7) BlackRock`s Bob Doll expects US stocks to outperform non-US stocks for the third year in a row; Marc Faber also holds this view according to a recent interview;

8) Interestingly enough Bob Doll expects Republicans to capture the Senate, retain the House, and defeat President Obama;

9) Crude Oil is also up sharply; I see limited upside from this point on for the next 5 to 10 trading sessions (trading at 101.40 right now, Feb`12 CL futures)

On other topics, I am looking forward to watching Manchester City against Liverpool later today; Big match, the best attack against the best defense - I expect Manchester City to win; I am getting more and more involved in trying to create an algo for EPL betting.

I will leave you with an inspiring quote, "Faith is necessary to victory." - William Hazlitt.