Oil Traders Blog

Trading Notes #14

2012-01-17T07:21:00.001-05:00

Due to a tight schedule I will not be blogging for the next few weeks.

Just wanted to add this great trading reflection,

It is difficult to tolerate even normal drawdowns unless you have confidence in your methods. This confidence does not come from mere positive self-talk. Rather, it is a function of testing your methods (historically and in real-time) and seeing in your own experience that they truly work; - Brett Steenbarger

Have a great trading day!

Trading Notes #13

2012-01-11T09:37:00.000-05:00

Here are today`s trading notes,

1) Pre-market is slightly lower - a short term correction is probably in the cards;

2) Eurozone keeps sending very alarming signs,

(a) German 2 year note yield drops to record low of 0.134%
(b) New ECB deposits hitting a new record: €486 billion
(c) the spanish economy is contracting fast

3) There are a few high profile downgrades today including Mastercard (MA), 3M (MMM), Coca-Cola (KO) and Ralph Lauren (RL) - analysts are catching up with earnings momentum loss

4) Hecla Mining (HL) is cutting 2012 silver production outlook - it`s getting hit very, very hard, down 14% at 5.03

On a leisure note, I watched a very competitive NBA match yesterday evening. The Thunders won in Memphis in a very tight duel.

Looking forward to an excellent league cup match in England later today. Manchester City will host Liverpool. That will be quite a match (I hope :)).

I take the chance to congratulate Leo Messi on his Balon d`Or award,

Trading Notes #12

2012-01-10T09:30:00.001-05:00

Here are today`s trading notes,

1) eMini S&P Futures are gapping up this morning;

2) Nymex Crude Oil is trading at 103.00 - it may be near to a short term top - I hold similar views on the indexes;

3) According to ECRI, "with the USFIG ending 2011 near the lows of the year, underlying U.S. inflation pressures remain subdued”- ECRI`s Lakshman Achuthan

4) Nearly 60 percent of hedge funds lost money in 2011, according to preliminary data from the HedgeFund Intelligence Database - that is crazy!

5) It seems that the high end jewelry market is not doing so well, "Tiffany & Co. declined in New York after the world’s second-largest luxury jewelry retailer reduced its annual earnings forecast, hurt by slowing holiday sales growth across all regions." - TIF is off 7 to 8 percent in pre-market trading

6) We had 2 big consecutive rallies in chinese shares - comparatively the Nikkei 225 barely moved - japanese shares are being held back by the strong yen but they may be a decent play going forward

On a leisure note, I had to sweat a bit yesterday as Arsenal was unable to score against Leeds for over 60 minutes. In the end, an "old hero", Thierry Henry came off the bench and scored. Thanks Henry!

I will leave you with a fantastic motivational video,

Trading Notes #11

2012-01-09T09:57:00.000-05:00

Here are today`s notes:

1) We have a very quiet session so far; I am not expecting any big moves but my bias is bearish for the short term;

2) Alcoa (AA) will kick start the earnings season; interesting to see how it will react;

3) there`s no relevant economic data points today or tomorrow;

4) CL Futures are trading down today; I am expecting a correction in that space;

I will leave you with 14 minutes of pure undiluted laugh. Enjoy,

Trading Notes #10

2012-01-06T09:16:00.000-05:00

Here we go,

1) The NFP data came above expectations (200,000 vs. 155,000 consensus) but after the initial spike, ES Futures are trading just a few ticks below where they were before 8.30 AM ET; not very inspiring for the bull case so far;

2) Bullish sentiment soared to an 11-month high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey - retail investors are feeling confident about the market prospects;

3) Soros says the Euro Crisis is more dangerous than the 2008 crisis, The euro zone crisis is "more serious and more threatening than the crash of 2008" (Economic Times)

4) European banks now trade like tech stocks in 2000; up 5% in one day, down 7% the next;

On other topics, Coutinho shows you how to drible and score,

I will leave you with a Jim Rohn`s quote, “Part of success is preparation on purpose.”

Have a great weekend!

Trading Notes #9

2012-01-05T08:50:00.000-05:00

Here are today`s trading notes,

1) Pre-market is red again - ES futures are trading lower in pre-market but way off the lows;

2) Jeff Gundlach was on CNBC yesterday and he is also very worried about China; This could be one of the stories of the year;

3) One of Byron Wien`s predictions for 2012 is "Oil prices will decline to $85 a barrel" - he hasn`t been that right in recent 1 Year Outlooks but he may have a good call there, especially if China slows down sharply;

4) Another very good US economic data point, "U.S. Jobless Claims -15k To 372,000" - the US economy has been surprising on the upside;

5) And another, "ADP says U.S. companies added 325,000 to payrolls in December"

On other topics, I want to introduce you to The Vaccines with this fantastic track, "Post Break Up Sex":

I will leave you with a good trading quote, “When you're on a big winning streak, there's a temptation to think that you're doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.”
~ William Eckhardt

Trading Notes #8

2012-01-04T09:07:00.000-05:00

Here we go,

1) Markets are weak with Spain`s speculation of asking for IMF/EU assistance to recapitalize the banking system;

2) The EURUSD cross drops below 1.3000 for first time in 3 days; 1.3000 is a key pivotal point for the risk on/ risk off trade

3) Interestingly enough the Shanghai Composite is already down year to date;

4) What are the the world’s largest hedge fund ideas for 2012? Bridgewater (Ray Dalio) or their strategists, are not entirely optimistic heading into 2012; managers at the world’s biggest hedge fund firm are preparing for at least a decade of slow growth and high unemployment for the big developed economies;

5) If you are looking for a new trading book to read in 2012, try Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom from van Tharp; there are lots of useful concepts for your trading in it;

On other topics, check out this live performance. It`s the best song of all time in IMO,

There are a few matches to watch later today on the English Premier League. I expect Manchester United to win on their away match against Newcastle. It should be entertaining.

I will leave you with an inspiring quote, "Failure is merely another opportunity to more intelligently begin again." - Henry Ford

Have a great day!

Trading Notes #7

2012-01-03T09:03:00.002-05:00

Gentlemen, start your engines! 2012 trading season is just about to kick-off:

1) 2012 is beginning just like 2011 ended; with another gap, this time a big 20 point up gap on the S&P 500; If the ISM data coming later today is at or above expectations I expect us to rally into the close;

2)US ISM expectations is for a 53.5 reading after last month's surprising 52.7; out at 10.00 am ET;

3) Have you debriefed your 2011 trading season? How high (or how low) was your Profit Factor? What was your best strategy or trading instrument?

4) Are you starting 2012 with a written business plan? Do you know exactly how and when you are going to pull the trigger?

5) According to BBC, Greece warns on Euro exit if bailout is not signed - this story has more episodes than a south american soup opera;

6) UK chief financial officers (CFOs) see the break-up of the Euro as the greatest threat to their businesses in 2012, says Deloitte

7) BlackRock`s Bob Doll expects US stocks to outperform non-US stocks for the third year in a row; Marc Faber also holds this view according to a recent interview;

8) Interestingly enough Bob Doll expects Republicans to capture the Senate, retain the House, and defeat President Obama;

9) Crude Oil is also up sharply; I see limited upside from this point on for the next 5 to 10 trading sessions (trading at 101.40 right now, Feb`12 CL futures)

On other topics, I am looking forward to watching Manchester City against Liverpool later today; Big match, the best attack against the best defense - I expect Manchester City to win; I am getting more and more involved in trying to create an algo for EPL betting.

I will leave you with an inspiring quote, "Faith is necessary to victory." - William Hazlitt.

Happy New Year!

2011-12-29T10:10:00.003-05:00

I wish all the regular readers a Happy New Year!

Trading Notes #6

2011-12-28T08:24:00.000-05:00

Here are today`s trading notes,

1) A worrying fact, China's stock market is down 32% this year and just hit a new low (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI))

2) I plan to close all remaining long positions today or tomorrow; I plan to end the year with a clean sheet to work on;

3) The Brent/WTI spread continues its new leg lower; It caused some confusion over the year so I would prefer the spread to narrow further so it will be easier to position trade the Nymex Light Sweet Crude Futures;

4) While I see an interesting medium term opportunity in going long Japan, the momentum is not behind that trade yet - (today`s worse than expected contraction in industrial Production)

5) It`s a vacation week - incredibly light volumes again this morning - there`s not much more to do in 2011;

On a leisure note, I will introduce you to the Koenigsegg CCX (245 mph, 0-60 in 3.2 secs. 90 Degree V8 Engine 806 hp, base price is $545,568, Made in Sweden):

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Trading Notes #5

2011-12-27T10:39:00.003-05:00

Here are today`s trading notes:

1) Quiet bullish session so far - typical of the last week of the year;

2) I have a neutral outlook for the rest of this week as the upside I was expecting has already materialized;

3) It`s a good week to recharge and work on your 2012 trading plan;

4) The US consumer is feeling healthy again, U.S. Dec Consumer Confidence Index rises to 64.5 VS 55.2;

5) One task for this week: find out what was your Profit Factor by instrument traded for 2011; You will probably gather some valuable information for your trading in 2012;

On a leisure note, I will share with you a fine soccer/ football website to track all major leagues. I am watching Arsenal against Wolves on my small screen right now.

SoccerWay, www.soccerway.com

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Trading Notes #4

2011-12-23T09:53:00.000-05:00

Here are today`s trading notes:

1) I expect a very quiet session as it "always" happens just before Christmas

2) A spectacular stat: In 2011 the S&P 500 traveled, close-to-close, 3193 points from the 12/31/10 close; the index itself has moved a mere 3.64 points YTD - now that is a hell of a noisy year!

3) Nouriel Roubini decoded the Durable Goods number, "Excluding the volatile military and aircraft components durable goods fell 1.2%, the worst since January"

4) Some of the best big cap performers YTD, Mastercard (MA) up 65 percent, Humana (HUM), up 62 percent, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) up 56 percent and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) up 75 percent;

5) Big caps that really underperformed year to date, Bank Of America (BAC) down 59%, US Steel (X) down 55% and First Solar (FSLR) down 73%;

6) I wish all the subscribers and regular readers a Merry Christmas!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Trading Notes #3

2011-12-22T09:33:00.000-05:00

Here are today`s trading notes:

1) The number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped last week to its lowest level since April 2008 - that is very good news and shows the economy is not double dipping

2) Interesting commentary from Bill Gross, "Zero rates caused too many market distortions; Too late for Fed to correct" - by now we all should have been able to adapt to this market...

3) I was expecting a stronger bounce from Bank Of America (BAC) - still at 5.25 - curious to see how it performs today and tomorrow - maybe it will trade as high as 5.50 by Friday afternoon;

4) EURUSD testing 1.3000 again - I do not expect it to break lower decisively in the next few session;

5) Nymex Oil is trading slightly higher this morning - it should settle around this level for the week;

On a leisure note, I will share with you this fantastic Ferrari tie,

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Trading Notes #2

2011-12-21T10:20:00.001-05:00

Here are today`s trading notes:

1) Oracle (ORCL) shares plunge 13 percent early Wednesday - company has provided a soft outlook, market punishing the stock hard

2) Doug Kass just Twitted, I am using this "predictable" pullback as an opportunity to add to longs. I expect some seasonal strength into year end - I agree, US stocks will probably move higher over this week and next;

3) FX Concepts' Taylor tells has just said that ECB loans are a form of quantitative easing - if so, very bullish for risk assets (FX Concepts is the world`s biggest currency hedge fund);

4) Bank Of America`s technical strategist says: "Sell EURUSD at market (now 1.3045) risking 1.3255, targeting 1.2510" - my view is that we will have a lot of noise, big 100 pips plus days but in the end we will be just about where we are now;

5) Mortgage Bankers Association reports that the avg 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 4.08% last week, the lowest of the year - slightly bullish for housing

On a leisure note, I will give you a good wine tip (under 20 USD):

ROBERT OATLEY Shiraz Mudgee 2009 (Australia): Bright and jazzy, with black cherry and mint aromas and flavors that skip lively through the finish. Drink now through 2014. 6,000 cases made.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Today`s Trading Notes

2011-12-20T08:40:00.001-05:00

There are a few interesting trading notes today:

1) There`s more to life than downgrades, Fitch says Poland outlook may be raised in 'medium term', 'no fears' of recession, deficit plan reduces pressure on rating A-

2) Volumes are drying up fast, Japan volume was the lowest since 2008, 3rd lowest since 2005 - Nikkei added 40 points overnight - it may be an interesting long play for 2012

3) Jefferies Group, Inc. (JEF) is trading at 12.40 (after closing at 11.80) after this morning's earnings - banks/ financials may perform well today

4) The S&P 500 opened near the highs and sold off during the trading day for five straight days - lately, if the market is open, traders are selling - I guess today we will close near the day`s high

5) There a few stocks that are very oversold and likely to bounce...my favorites are Mosaic (MOS) and Bank Of America (BAC)

6) On the presidential race, A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows that Ron Paul has taken the lead in the Iowa caucus race, while Newt Gingrich’s support is fading fast. A different Gallup poll shows Gringrich still holding the lead, but slipping, while The New York Times has Paul in the lead as well - all in all I expect Obama to keep the White House

And because there`s much more to life than trading I will leave you with the Ferrari 458 Italia. Fasten your seat belts!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

If You Are Looking For A Special Wine...

2011-12-19T14:09:00.002-05:00

Try this. You won`t be disappointed,

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

The Gold Trade

2011-12-19T10:33:00.002-05:00

A very interesting view on gold,

"Gold was a safe haven, a hedge and a speculative trade all at the same time." - Michael Murphy, CEO of Rosecliff Capital, a hedge fund

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Interesting Contrarian View On US Stocks

2011-12-19T09:53:00.001-05:00

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Oil Trading Near 6 Week Lows

2011-12-16T10:31:00.000-05:00

Crude oil tumbled to the lowest level in six weeks as industrial production declined for the first time since April in the U.S., the world’s largest oil- consuming country. (Source: Bloomberg)

I expect volume and activity to slow sharply beginning today. I have a bullish bias for the last 2 weeks of the year based on strong seasonality.

Have a great weekend!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Fedex (FDX) Sees A Decent Economy

2011-12-15T10:35:00.000-05:00

Economic bellwether FedEx (FDX) reported better than expected earnings this morning. They cited strong holiday sales and continuing global economic growth as the primary drivers. On the conference call they said they expect 2.2 percent US GDP growth in 2012 and 2.9 percent global growth. - in The Prag Cap

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

It`s Fed Day. Go To The Gym, Lunch Early And Get Back To The Desk At 2.00 PM

2011-12-13T09:25:00.000-05:00

There will be some action after 2.15 PM but probably just some crazy zig-zag action.

It`s a good day to go to the Gym, go shopping...lunch early and get back to the trading desk just in time for the action.

There was a nice clean setup on Nymex Oil Futures late in the session, adding 50 ticks to the pot. It`s over 1000 ticks in 2011 by now just in CL Futures.

I will leave you with a good joke:

Gingrich: "I define marriage as the bond between a man and three or more women." - Andy Borowitz

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Using Mental Stops

2011-12-12T15:37:00.000-05:00

This is just too good, "I put in a "mental stop" once and didn't obey it. That's how I ended up with my first kid."

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

We Face A Bifurcated Market

2011-12-12T13:47:00.000-05:00

“We face a bifurcated market: a crisis in the Middle East could send prices through the roof; the eurozone debt problems could trigger a collapse.” - Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citigroup

Related, United States Oil Fund (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Energy (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Emerging Markets, Bank Of America & Trappist Beer

2011-12-12T10:05:00.000-05:00

I read a report earlier today that was very bullish for emerging markets. It mentioned the negative correlation between food prices (going down) and emerging market stocks.

As I look at the tape, emerging market ETFs are being crushed. Ishares Brazil (EWZ) is down 3%, Market Vectors Russia (RSX) is down 4% and the EEM, the emerging markets barometer is down 3.3%. Lots of red in that space.

I am also looking at Bank Of America (BAC). My conviction is that it will not print new lows. I think the bottom is in. The stock is down hard today, trading at 5.57 vs. the low of 5.02.

I will leave you with a good belgian beer to taste later today if you have the chance. Meet Chimay`s trappist beers**,

**Chimay Brewery ("Bières de Chimay") is a beer brewery in Chimay, southern Hainaut, Belgium. The brewery is located in the Scourmont Abbey, a Trappist monastery, and is one of the seven breweries worldwide that produce Trappist beer.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Quote Of The Day

2011-12-06T15:14:00.000-05:00

“When you're trading, it's important to have your guns on. You can't be wandering around the Street unarmed, and if you don't know the terrain, you're going to get killed.” - Marty Schwartz, author of Pit Bull

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Video: Seeking Energy Security In The U.S.

2011-12-06T09:12:00.000-05:00

Related: Conoco Phillips (COP), Royal Dutch Shell (RD), Sandridge Energy (SD), Chesapeake Energy (CHK)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Spend Less Time Learning New Tools And More Time Using Them

2011-12-05T19:44:00.000-05:00

´Knowing about a tool is one thing. Having the guts to use it in a way that brings art to the world is another. Perhaps we need to spend less time learning new tools and more time using them.´ - Seth Godin

Of course Seth was not referring to trading or investing. But he could very well be.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Trading Quote Of The Day

2011-12-05T12:20:00.002-05:00

“Manias and bubbles are an integral part of the Age of Inflation because they are caused by too much money and credit.” - Tony Boekh

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Oil Price Between $90 and $100 is Reasonable: BP CEO

2011-12-05T12:01:00.000-05:00

Related tickers, BP plc (BP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil (MRO), Murphy Oil (MUR), Transocean (RIG), United States Oil Fund (USO)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Seasonality Is Beating Conditions. No Surprises There.

2011-12-05T10:44:00.000-05:00

This is the most bullish period of the year so the rally is no surprise. Even in 2008, when the world was (also) falling apart, stocks managed to rally going into year`s end...

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Wine Tasting (Wine Spectator)

2011-12-02T11:47:00.000-05:00

As you know I am a wine lover. Here`s an introductory video on wine tasting from Wine Spectator.

I am not opening any new positions today. I never like to risk too much on Fridays because if the day gets rough, it will completely ruin the weekend...

Have a great weekend!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Quoting Keynes On Speculation.

2011-12-01T16:58:00.000-05:00

When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?

Tha is a great quote from John Marnard Keynes. He is famous for his economic theories but he was a very good speculator himself.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

China Is Slowing Down, Fast.

2011-12-01T08:31:00.001-05:00

I expect a consolidation session in today`s session. I sold into the rally some of the trading positions and I am only holding to a stock pick right now. It`s not time to rush in. We will have the Employment Report coming out tomorrow before the open and some European integration plans will be presented today by Sarkozy.

On the macro front, there were some alarming news coming out of China overnight. The chinese economy is slowing more than previously expected:

“November data showed Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions deteriorating at the sharpest rate since March 2009. Behind the renewed contraction of the sector were marked reductions in both production and incoming new business. The latest survey findings also showed a marked easing in price pressures, with average input costs falling for the first time in 16 months. In response, manufacturers reduced their output charges at a marked rate.

After adjusting for seasonal variation, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – dropped from 51.0 to a 32-month low of 47.7 in November, signalling a solid deterioration in manufacturing sector performance. Additionally, the monthon-month decline in the index was the largest in three years.”

I also want to share with you the Newsletter`s "Joke Of The Day": Dear Amazon: I am not a branding expert, but it does not sound safe to read a book on a device called Fire.

Pretty cool isn`t it?

I posted a fantastic soccer video a couple of days ago. In case you missed it, here`s the link.

Have a great day!

Related stocks and ETF`s: Amazon.com (AMZN), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

A Bullish Cocktail. That Bottom Call On Bank Of America (BAC) Looks Good Now.

2011-11-30T09:02:00.000-05:00

Well, well, well. China lowers the reserve requirements for banks, central banks provide extra dollar liquidity and ADP comes way better than expected...

You cannot get a sweeter bullish cocktail than this one. I expect a nice rally, and if Mosaic (MOS) outperforms even better. As I said yesterday on my Twitter I expect Bank Of America (BAC) to have bottomed yesterday (actually that bullish Bank Of America (BAC) call seems even better today :) ).

On other topics, I just love this Range Roger,

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Grab A Beer, Sit Back And Enjoy.

2011-11-29T18:34:00.001-05:00

Grab a beer, sit back and enjoy.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

December Is The Most Bullish Month For Stocks

2011-11-29T18:16:00.000-05:00

"December has significantly outpaced the average month over the last 80+ years across all metrics, particularly the one I think matters most: average return / std. dev. of returns. From this 30,000 foot view, December has been far and away the most bullish month of the year." - in MarketSci

Related, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF (QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

El-Erian: 3 Potential Scenarios For Europe

2011-11-29T12:11:00.001-05:00

According to PIMCO`s El-Erian, there are 3 potential scenarios:

1) "Fragmentation of the euro zone," in which the 17 member nations would go their own way, which he said would be "incredibly disruptive not just for Europe but also for the global economy."

2) "Full fiscal union," in which the nations adopt uniform financial reforms that would be more political in nature.

3) A "middle ground" in which a "smaller but stronger euro zone" emerges where as many as three countries default on their debt and exit the EU.

On other topic, I just bought a few belgian beers. I am picking a Grimbergen for today`s dinner. I am also looking forward to the match Chelsea against Liverpool later today. It`s very important to completely get your head out of the markets after you leave the trading desk.

Related: iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA ADR (NYSE:BBVA) Banco Santander, S.A. ADR (NYSE:STD), Deutsche Bank AG USA (NYSE:DB), Credit Agricole SA (EPA:ACA), BNP Paribas SA (EPA:BNP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), Bank Of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

What The Best Traders Understand And The Others Don`t

2011-11-29T10:43:00.000-05:00

Casino owners and the best traders understand that events that have probable outcomes can produce consistent results if you can get the odds in your favor (if you have a trading edge) and you have a large enough sample size (many trading opportunities). Then the secret formula is actually quite simple, trade with risk management guidelines that allow you to exploit your edge without going bankrupt in the process.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Inventories Are Low. Upside Risks In The Oil Market.

2011-11-28T14:49:00.000-05:00

Worth listening to.

Tickers, Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP), Murphy Oil (MUR), Suncor (SU), Noble Corp (NE), Transocean (RIG), United States Oil Fund (USO)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Are You A Consistent Winner?

2011-11-28T12:42:00.000-05:00

In order to become a consistent winner in the markets you need an edge. But an edge is just a higher probability of one thing happening over another. The flawless repetition of your edge is the "secret". That`s the reason why trading is much more of a "mind game" than anything else...

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

There Is No Way Prices Can Fall Much From Where They Are Now

2011-11-28T11:42:00.000-05:00

“It’s been the supply side. Libya went off the market. Lots of problems in the North Sea. Brazil, I mean, there were problems everywhere. Inventories Are about are about 50 million below the seasonal average heading into the winter. There is no way prices can fall much from where they are now. You just don’t have enough inventories around.” - Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays

Trading Nymex Oil has been a pleasant experience this year. While I traded only for the "sure" move, I was rewarded for my timing and patience. Sometimes, simplicity is the ultimate sophistication...

Tickers, Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP), Murphy Oil (MUR), Suncor (SU), Noble Corp (NE), Transocean (RIG), United States Oil Fund (USO)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Art Cashin: Market Update

2011-11-28T09:03:00.000-05:00

"We have been saying for weeks that we, along with Secretary Geithner, are concerned that European leaders have no mechanism in place to handle any sudden acceleration of the crisis. Basically, there is no financial fire department and no sign of one being hired.

Moody’s and others are indicating that time is running out and it may be a matter of days. ICAP, the currency trading facilitator, said it is testing its systems for a return to the drachma or even the Deutsche mark. Italian PM Monti admitted that the breakup of the Eurozone has been broached at meetings with top leaders.

This morning European stocks and U.S. futures are spiking sharply. The pundits are trying to pin the spike on everything from Black Friday sales to an IMF bailout of Italy. We think the spike is the reaction of a very oversold market to the resurfacing of the Sarkozy based rumor of a treaty deal for fiscal linkage. But, even if it’s true, can it be implemented quickly enough for a situation thought to be days away from crisis or climax?

The IMF bailout, already denied, was always unlikely since the U.S. is a key player in the IMF. Using U.S. funds for a European crisis is unthinkable in the current political environment. As to Black Friday, look what was said about last year’s Black Friday last November. Also, how could it help Europe so much?

Lastly, European bond markets are more placid and skeptical than their equity cousins. That supports the oversold causation thesis." - Art Cashin

Yes, all in all, it`s a volatile environment. I don`t agree with everything he said, but as you know I am a short term trader so I don`t need fancy interpretations to play the market.

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Jim O`Neill On Russia And The Perfect Start To The Week.

2011-11-28T08:40:00.002-05:00

"If Russia fulfils its potential, it will create all sorts of interesting and complex political and social issues for the European Union and the world, besides the obvious economic ones. For the EU to have a wealthier neighbour on its borders would be quite remarkable. Provided it does not provoke conflict, it could raise the possibility of Russian membership of the EU.” - Jim O`Neill, Goldman Sachs

I am closing the long position on the S&P 500 Futures, taking the profits. While I still see upside for a few stocks, I prefer to move to the sidelines on the index, and playing it through stocks for the next few sessions.

It`s a great feeling to start the week with a 32 point move in your favor (on S&P Futures).

Have a great day!

Tickers, Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

2011-11-23T19:42:00.002-05:00

"Success seems to be connected with action. Successful men keep moving. They make mistakes, but they do not quit." -C. Hilton

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

El Erian: We Have Less Economic Momentum Than We Thought

2011-11-22T13:13:00.000-05:00

“We have less economic momentum than we thought we had and we have no policy momentum.What’s most terrifying is that we are having this discussion about the risk of recession at a time when unemployment is already too high, at a time when a quarter of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, at a time then the fiscal deficit is at 9 percent and at a time when interest rates are at zero.” - El-Erian, PIMCO

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF (SDS), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF (QQQ), Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF (XLY)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Mobius: There`s Another Financial Crisis Around The Corner

2011-11-22T12:25:00.000-05:00

“There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner.
The reason? We haven’t solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis.” - Mark Mobius, Emerging Markets specialist

It`s a rare bearish call from Mobius...

Related: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Equities Outlook: Diapason Commodities Management

2011-11-22T12:15:00.000-05:00

We are now at the conclusion of our Sept 30 bi-directional short-term forecasts: an S&P 500 rally to the 1250 – 1275, then followed by another price reversion to the 1175 area. This call for 1175 levels is unlikely to be seen; support is now strong at circa 1200. The rally resumes in earnest soon, probably before month-end. We still expect the SPX to test the 1350 – 1375 highs by Q1 next year. - By Robert P. Balan, Senior Market Strategist, Diapason Commodities Management

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Soros: The (Only) Solution To The Euro Crisis

2011-11-22T11:42:00.000-05:00

“The financial markets are testing the ECB and want to find out what it is allowed to do. The central bank must stop the bond run at all costs because it is endangering the stability of the single currency. The best way to do it in the near term is to impose a ceiling on the yield of sovereign bonds issued by governments that follow responsible fiscal policies and are not subject to adjustment programs.

Normally central banks fix only short-term interest rates but these are not normal times. Government bonds that were considered risk-free when financial institutions acquired them, and are still treated as such by the regulators, have turned into the riskiest of assets.

Italian and Spanish bonds are viewed as too risky to buy with a yield of seven percent because they are regarded as toxic, and the yield could just as easily rise to 10 percent. Yet the same bonds would be attractive long-term investments in the current deflationary environment, at say four percent, as long as the excessive risk is removed by imposing a five percent ceiling on interest rates.

The interest rate ceiling should be regarded as an emergency measure. In the medium term it could encourage politicians to abandon fiscal discipline." - George Soros

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Von Mises: State Influence & Wars

2011-11-22T07:24:00.000-05:00

Whoever wants peace among nations must seek to limit the state and its influence most strictly. - Ludwig von Mises

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

A Funny Moment. Enjoy.

2011-11-18T11:34:00.001-05:00

A funny moment for you to enjoy. Have a great weekend! :)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

The S&P 500 Measured In Gold

2011-11-17T12:34:00.001-05:00

Interesting stuff...measured in gold terms (of course not in real terms as I have read in other sites) the S&P 500 Index is trading at the 2009 lows. Back then one ounce of gold bought 1.41 times the SPX and today it does as well:

“I’ve done this analysis before in the past and while most people look at the stock market strictly in nominal terms, I still believe it’s always important to have perspective in terms of its value in other currencies. With the move lower in gold (another currency) today to a two week low and the S&P’s around 1235 after yesterday’s selloff, the S&P 500 priced in gold terms is at the exact same level seen on March 6, 2009 when the SPX cash hit 666 intraday. Then, one ounce of gold bought 1.41 times the SPX and today it does as well. Money printing and the debasement of fiat currencies can cover up many ills and make things look better than they really are in terms of purchasing power.” - Peter Boockvar

My superficial thoughts on this are, stocks are cheap in gold terms...but of course that does not mean they are going to trend up, gold may catch up (down) as well. But I am a short term trader and I do not like to think in those terms. Just found it interesting and worth sharing.

I bought a fantastic bottle for dinner. A VILLA TONINO Nero d'Avola Sicilia Baglio Curatolo 2008 (88 points, in Wine Spectator). I am still helping the italian current account deficit... :)

Have a great day!

Related: SPDR GOld Trust (ETF), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Trading With A Carefree State Of Mind

2011-11-17T10:16:00.001-05:00

Carefree means confident, but not euphoric. When you are in a carefree state of mind, you will not feel any fear, hesitation, or compulsion to do anything, because you have effectively eliminated the potential to define and interpret market information as threatening. To remove the sense of threat, you have to accept the risk completely.- Mark Douglas, Trading In The Zone

Do you still feel fear or anxiety when opening a new trade?

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Discipline, Goals & Accomplishment

2011-11-16T15:51:00.002-05:00

“Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment." — Jim Rohn

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

The Basis Of All Successful Trading

2011-11-16T10:53:00.002-05:00

"Trade with an edge, manage risk, be consistent, and keep it simple. The basis of all successful trading can be summed up in these four core principles." - Curtis Faith

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

How To Be Great

2011-11-10T19:12:00.006-05:00

Success has nothing to do with how many technical indicators you know or how many screens you use on your trading. Nor with how many trading books you have read. You have to build your own success every single day of your life.

Success in trading (and in life) is just like in professional sports. Don`t make excuses.

Enjoy.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Stocks Leading Market Lower: BAC, MU, AAPL, C

2011-11-10T12:38:00.000-05:00

The tape is mixed but there are a few rotten apples pushing the indexes lower: Bank Of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Apple (AAPL), Micron Tech (MU) just to name a few.

My outlook for the rest of the session is...bearish.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Apple (AAPL) Down 3 Percent

2011-11-10T12:24:00.000-05:00

We have a zig-zag session so far in equities. I would highlight 3 things:

1) Apple (AAPL) is down 3% in a rising market - I have been watching AAPL for a while now in the Newsletter (my opinion is that there is little upside above 400 USD)

2) Energy stocks are doing very well: Murphy Oil (MUR) is the outperformer and SandRidge Energy (SD) is lower, selling off in a rising market for energy stocks;

3) Homebuilders are doing well (again) - KB Home (KBH) is leading, but Lennar (LEN) is also very strong

Have you watched Perry`s gaffe yesterday evening? If not, check it out, it`s worthwile.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Cause Of Death: Risk

2011-11-09T17:04:00.000-05:00

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Yahoo (YHOO) Very Well Supported

2011-11-09T16:22:00.000-05:00

Interesting behavior in Yahoo (YHOO) shares today. They were basically unch in a crashing market. Very interesting outperformance.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

A Picture Is Worth 1,000 Words

2011-11-09T16:10:00.000-05:00

Green Montain Coffee (GMCR) down almost 30% after hours. Another ex Wall Street darling facing gravity.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Crude Oil Has Downside Risks

2011-11-09T10:25:00.001-05:00

I expect crude oil to correct further. 95 USD per barrel is not a crisis price at all...But with the Brent / WTI disparity is much tougher to trade oil. Maybe a Brent short is wiser than a WTI short. I just closed the equity shorts on this early weakness and probably will not trade again today.

I will be looking for new trading opportunities.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Russian ETF Down Almost 7 Percent

2011-11-09T10:01:00.001-05:00

The Russian ETF, RSX is one of the most volatile in my list. Today the Market Vectors Russia ETF is down almost 7%...

Despite being far away from the crisis epicenter, the russian markets are feeling the pain too. Maybe it will create a buying opportunity soon.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Big EURUSD Move. Commodity Stocks Are Feeling The Pain.

2011-11-09T09:57:00.000-05:00

EURUSD is down 284 pips. That is a big, big move. The short position on SPDR Materials (XLB) is doing just fine today.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

One Day...

2011-11-09T09:54:00.003-05:00

One day all this pressure being felt in Europe will be on the US Government Bonds. When that day arrives, it will be messy...

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Are P/E`s Too Low? Don`t Even Bother.

2011-11-08T16:33:00.000-05:00

Correlation between earnings multiples and subsequent returns is loose. Statistically speaking, it’s almost non-existent. - in the Prag Cap, from Draco Capital Management

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Crude Oil Prices: The Million Dollar Question

2011-11-08T16:12:00.000-05:00

If Europe is so weak then why does oil continue to climb? - in TheStreet.com

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Natural Gas Futures & Jose Gonzalez Song

2011-11-08T13:12:00.004-05:00

I opened a 6 month chart of Natural Gas Futures and the thing that immediately came to mind was one of my favorite songs..."How low, are you willing to go..." (Jose Gonzalez).

Well, a bear market is a serious condition... But I see a catalyst coming that may very well be a trend reversal for Natural Gas.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

Oil Crosses 200-day SMA. Don`t Chase It.

2011-11-07T16:58:00.000-05:00

"The price of oil (WTI Crude) has broken back above its long-term 200-day moving average today. It's the first time oil has been above its 200-day since July." - in Bespoke

If ECRI`s bearish call on the economy is indeed right, there`s plenty of downside risks to oil prices here. Anyway, after this big run, rallying from mid 70`s to mid 90`s the upside is probably very limited in the near term...

Related: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (USO)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

ECRI: The US Economy Is Heading Into Recession

2011-11-07T16:50:00.000-05:00

Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off. - in Business Cycle Website

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

ECRi`s Achuthan: Downbeat On The US Economy

2011-11-07T16:34:00.000-05:00

I always like to listen to what Lakshman Achuthan has to say. ECRI has been spot on regarding their macro calls.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

McDonald`s Is Lousy For Food, But Great For Stock Investing

2011-11-07T10:00:00.003-05:00

McDonald`s (MCD) just hit a new 52 week high. My stomach can`t handle their food, but my account surely could handle MCD... :)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try the TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

85 Percent Of S&P 500 Stocks Are Above Their 50-day SMA.

2011-11-07T08:47:00.001-05:00

Another bearish argument... The market also looks over extended if you look at the percentage of stocks above their 50-day simple moving averages: 85%!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try theTraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com

I Don`t See Much Upside For Apple (AAPL) In The Short Term

2011-11-07T08:08:00.000-05:00

I am considering generating a trade setup around that idea. While I am not ultra bearish on Apple (AAPL) I also do not expect it to rally through 400 USD convincingly in the short term.

Volatile Globex Trading. Bearish Bias.

2011-11-07T08:02:00.003-05:00

It has been a very volatile Globex session. ES Futures have traded has low as 1232 and as high as 1259.50. That is a big range!

I am keeping a bearish bias but I expect a volatile session/week with a little bit of everything to please both bulls and bears.

Have a great day!

I Still Like Mosaic (MOS)

2011-11-03T12:30:00.000-04:00

I still like Mosaic (MOS). I should have bought it on Tuesday`s weakness. Now I have to wait for the next correction...I hope it does not rally away from me.

Financials Are Weak Today. Market`s Soft Spot.

2011-11-03T12:19:00.001-04:00

Financials are today`s soft spot. They were trading red and just turned green a few minutes ago.

They are good shorting plays for intraday setups.

Stocks: Bank Of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C)

Mean Reversion Trading

2011-11-03T12:11:00.002-04:00

These wide ranging, very volatile markets are always good for some mean reversion trading.

Is Greece The World`s Super Power?

2011-11-03T12:10:00.004-04:00

If aliens visited Earth and glanced through the newspapers they would quickly conclude that Greece is the world`s super power. This is becoming pathetic... Time to move on!

Leon Cooperman: 15,000 Stocks To Choose From

2011-11-01T14:03:00.001-04:00

"The stock market has 15,000 publicly traded companies that are in my universe. I think the banks are challenged. We try to look where we can put together a decent story, and there’s plenty of very cheap stocks." - Leon Cooperman, CEO of Omega Advisors

1984 Apple Commercial. Brilliant Stuff.

2011-10-31T12:53:00.002-04:00

I just bought Steve Jobs` biography (audiobook).

A Trading System That Fits You

2011-10-31T08:43:00.000-04:00

My work in modeling top traders suggests that if you are to do well, you must have a trading system that fits you. - in Super Trader, Van K Tharp

The week is starting on a bearish note. EMini S&P Futures are down 15 points in Globex trading and Nymex Crude Oil is down about 1%. I see very limited upside for the risk trade and plenty of downside.

Europe (Italy bonds are selling off) and MF Global will be the drivers today. The Chicago PMI will come out later today. It`s a another fresh economic data for the market to digest.

Have a great day!

Formula For Success

2011-10-27T13:50:00.002-04:00

You have to love this quote. Tony Robbins shared it on his Twitter earlier today,

Formula for Success: "Embrace your age, whatever it is, Love your life, get as healthy as you can, move your body every day, be informed, stay engaged, connect with others, use your mind, live with style, be bold, be brave, & walk with confidence." Barbara Hannah Grufferman

Have a great day!

The Hallmark Of A Pro

2011-10-21T12:50:00.002-04:00

"The hallmark of a pro is to operate within your own circle of competence and ignore everything else." - Mark Minervini

I totally agree with this. Traders must find their niche and become experts at it, ignoring all the other infinite market variables.

Have a great weekend!

Magnificent Artwork, Jean James

2011-10-20T08:55:00.001-04:00

Akaname, Jean James

Trader Talk: An Interview With Mark Cook

2011-10-15T18:13:00.002-04:00

A very interesting video interview with Mark Cook, a veteran eMini S&P Futures trader:

Part 1:

Part 2:

The Basis Of All Successful Trading

2011-10-15T18:07:00.002-04:00

"Trade with an edge, manage risk, be consistent, and keep it simple. The basis of all successful trading can be summed up in these four core principles." - Curtis Faith

There Is An Inverse Relationship Between Analysis & Trading Results

2011-10-13T13:50:00.002-04:00

"I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success." - Mark Douglas

If you are not familiar with trading beliefs and how they affect your trading I suggest that you read Mark Douglas` work.

Nice Reversal. Pre-Market Is Red.

2011-10-13T07:17:00.000-04:00

That rally could not really go too far and a reversal was clearly in the cards. Pre-market is red and while we may have a bit of consolidation back and forth as we usually do, I do not expect the recent highs (1216 on the S&P Futures) to be hit again this week.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Fashion Trends & Downside Risks

2011-10-12T14:04:00.000-04:00

As you know, my interests are much wider than trading and this site covers everything from trading to music, art, fast cars and fashion. Today I want to share with you this cool sweater from Woolrich John Rich & Bros. It`s a bit on the high-end but I am sure you can find a similar one for about half the price.

Markets are on a upbeat note again. I am bearish and expecting a new down leg soon. Yesterday Jeffrey Gundlach also expressed his bearish views and expects markets to break the lows again. I am not that bearish for now, but a 30 to 50 point correction on the S&P 500 Index is probably in the cards.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Just Keep Working On Improving Your Skills.

2011-10-12T13:53:00.000-04:00

“Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.” — Thomas Edison

If you feel you are getting closer and closer to being a profitable and consistent trader, just keep working on it.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

What Will Be The Catalyst For Natural Gas?

2011-10-12T12:32:00.000-04:00

Natural Gas has been in a strong downtrend for years. Some argue that natural gas is the solution to end the US foreign oil dependance while others think natural gas will never be a viable energy alternative.

What we do know is that this Administration is not pro-natgas...but if the Republicans win the White House next year that story may change. That could be the catalyst for a long term trend reversal in natural gas.

Graph: United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Ray Dalio: Pain + Reflection = Progress

2011-10-11T12:16:00.001-04:00

In his Principles, Ray Dalio declares that acknowledging errors, studying them, and learning from them is the key to success. He writes, “Pain + Reflection = Progress”. Interesting stuff that I wanted to share with you.

Have a great trading day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

It`s Time To Short Again.

2011-10-11T07:49:00.000-04:00

After this monster rally this is the time to get bearish and short again. The market is overbought, trading near resistance and the risk/reward seems to favor short setups.

Don`t have much time to blog today, so I will leave you with Vettel driving for the pole position in Monaco. Fasten your seatbelts!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

No Bias On The Market.

2011-10-10T09:40:00.001-04:00

I have no bias on the market right now and I am just watching on the sidelines. It seems like we will have a quiet week with volatility moving lower.

Nymex Oil had a big rebound from the lows and it may consolidate between low 80`s and 85 over the next few sessions.

I will leave you with the video of the 458 Spider's presentation shot at the Amalfi Coast, at Reggia di Caserta and other breathtaking locations in the Basilicata region:

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Will Our Reader Buy The 458 Spider?

2011-10-08T12:00:00.005-04:00

One of the readers just mentioned that he would buy a 458 Spider if the S&P 500 goes to 900. Well, I would love to have a reader with such a magnificent maquina...but 900 is so far away...and the market has been rallying strongly after getting to oversold levels.

Only time will tell. Maybe with a little help from confused european politicians, our reader may very well get it. Of course, it is also needed to stay the course and sit tight through all the volatility on that position if he has the conviction. Do you remember what Jesse Livermore wrote about the markets & gifts?

This is an important weekend. Let`s see what will come out of the European Summit.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Fantastic Ferrari Teddy-Bear(ish)

2011-10-07T11:05:00.000-04:00

If you are looking for a gift for your kid and especially if you are on the bearish camp....this is the perfect solution:

I love it. Just ordered one.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Classic Zig-Zag Trading After the Employment Report

2011-10-07T10:58:00.001-04:00

We are Zig-Zagging on the S&P 500 Index (SPY) since the data came out. The data was better than expected but we have a few things going against the bull case right now:

1 - better economic data means less probability of bold Fed moves;

2 - market is short term overbought;

3 - there`s an important european summit on Sunday;

Have a great weekend!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

Poker - Trading Analogy

2011-10-06T11:42:00.000-04:00

That's another way poker might be like trading: It's easy to participate, difficult to sustain success. Many just play for the thrills of winning and losing; relatively few systematically learn from experience and build skills over time. - Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D., expert in trading psychology

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

What Type Of Trader Are You? Find Out.

2011-10-06T11:33:00.001-04:00

If you want to find out what is your personality type as a trader, take the Tharp Trader Test here and find out. It only takes a couple of minutes.

It will give you some guidelines to improve your trading.

Have a great day!

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report

I Am A Fan.

2011-10-06T08:54:00.000-04:00

I am a fan and an avid user of Apple products. I have the IPhone, the Ipad, the MacBook and the IMac. I can`t remember the last time I used a Microsoft Windows computer...

I will leave you with my favorite Steve Jobs quote,

"Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life." -Steve Jobs

It sure is Steve, it sure is.

You can find out more about the Author`s Core Trading Beliefs here and you can try TraderHMS Newsletter free for 10 days, emailing to traderhms@gmail.com and you will receive the Oil Trading: Intraday Seasonality report