Today Art Cashin commented oil prices, a rather rare event for a NYSE trader:
"With oil pressing up against key resistance here — if it gets above $74, $75, you could get a short-covering spike. That could really hurt the recovery that's beginning." says Art.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 30, 2009
Bad Economic Data. 2 Good Trades.
The economic data released today was quite disappointing. Both the Chicago PMI and the Consumer Confidence Data printed below expectations.
I have made 2 good trades today, one short Crude Oil Futures trade from 71.00 to 70.50 and one short trade on the EURO Currency Futures from 1.4100 to 1.4050. They were both mechanical trades generated by a system I have developed.
I will not trade any discretionary plays until Enzo is born, and he can arrive at anytime now.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I have made 2 good trades today, one short Crude Oil Futures trade from 71.00 to 70.50 and one short trade on the EURO Currency Futures from 1.4100 to 1.4050. They were both mechanical trades generated by a system I have developed.
I will not trade any discretionary plays until Enzo is born, and he can arrive at anytime now.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Hugh Hendry Says Stock Markets Are Due For A Correction
Fears about inflation and hyperinflation could create another economic downturn, bigger than the one the world went through, Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer at hedge fund Eclectica, told CNBC Tuesday.
The stock markets are due for a correction after having risen dramatically this year, but this is not likely to come in the summer and another rally is possible, Hendry, who said he was remaining risk-adverse this year, told "Squawk Box Europe."
"We have a huge intellectual conviction… that this is a more profound downturn that we're experiencing and markets will be under pressure," Hendry said.
"People get more get more concerned about government debt… and it sows the seeds of its own destruction," Hendry said. "We're actually tightening the screw, we make monetary policy tighter and tighter."
Long-term yields on government bonds have been rising, as investors fear central banks, especially in the US and the UK, will have to absorb excess liquidity from the system and raise interest rates to fend off inflation once an economic recovery takes hold.
"I think this paranoia today that inflation is happening today I think it puts in place a motion for a decline in the economy," Hendry said. "I think they're not printing enough money… with regards to the wealth destruction that has been happening over the past 18 months."
"We raised interest rates and actually we killed the golden goose," he added.
A correction in the stock market is likely, but it will not come over the summer, and the S&P 500 index may even hit 1,000 before the downturn, according to Hendry, who admitted he is not stepping in to catch the tail of the rally.
"It's kind of fun watching it from the sidelines, I must say I'm not participating," he said. "My flower opens in the winter, not in the summer."
There is a tight correlation between the oil price and the Chinese currency, the yuan, with oil prices rising as the yuan was strengthening, Hendry said. This is because Chinese speculators had borrowed in dollars as the yuan firmed, and all that liquidity was thrown into the oil market last year.
"The one non-confirmation in the world is that, since July, the Chinese currency has done nothing, it was flat vis-à-vis the dollar," he added.
Hendry said he still prefers conventional government bonds, and admitted they were the cause his fund was 3 to 4 percent down on the year. But, he added, government bonds were down 20 percent – although he doesn't think they will end the year like this.
China and other countries with a current account surplus are not as safe as they seem at first glance, because their economies are still hugely dependent on exports to the US, which is still "down on its luck," he said.
"If that's the case, the last place you want to be is the surplus countries," Hendry said.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
The stock markets are due for a correction after having risen dramatically this year, but this is not likely to come in the summer and another rally is possible, Hendry, who said he was remaining risk-adverse this year, told "Squawk Box Europe."
"We have a huge intellectual conviction… that this is a more profound downturn that we're experiencing and markets will be under pressure," Hendry said.
"People get more get more concerned about government debt… and it sows the seeds of its own destruction," Hendry said. "We're actually tightening the screw, we make monetary policy tighter and tighter."
Long-term yields on government bonds have been rising, as investors fear central banks, especially in the US and the UK, will have to absorb excess liquidity from the system and raise interest rates to fend off inflation once an economic recovery takes hold.
"I think this paranoia today that inflation is happening today I think it puts in place a motion for a decline in the economy," Hendry said. "I think they're not printing enough money… with regards to the wealth destruction that has been happening over the past 18 months."
"We raised interest rates and actually we killed the golden goose," he added.
A correction in the stock market is likely, but it will not come over the summer, and the S&P 500 index may even hit 1,000 before the downturn, according to Hendry, who admitted he is not stepping in to catch the tail of the rally.
"It's kind of fun watching it from the sidelines, I must say I'm not participating," he said. "My flower opens in the winter, not in the summer."
There is a tight correlation between the oil price and the Chinese currency, the yuan, with oil prices rising as the yuan was strengthening, Hendry said. This is because Chinese speculators had borrowed in dollars as the yuan firmed, and all that liquidity was thrown into the oil market last year.
"The one non-confirmation in the world is that, since July, the Chinese currency has done nothing, it was flat vis-à-vis the dollar," he added.
Hendry said he still prefers conventional government bonds, and admitted they were the cause his fund was 3 to 4 percent down on the year. But, he added, government bonds were down 20 percent – although he doesn't think they will end the year like this.
China and other countries with a current account surplus are not as safe as they seem at first glance, because their economies are still hugely dependent on exports to the US, which is still "down on its luck," he said.
"If that's the case, the last place you want to be is the surplus countries," Hendry said.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Cashin Thinks Bear Market Rally Is Over
Art Cashin thinks the bear market rally is over and when questioned about "So what's ahead?", Cashin turned to one of his favorite rules of thumb, the mythical "Old Trader's Almanac":
"Rallies in bear markets tend to be somewhat short, but certainly very sharp — and they die on low volume."
"And the last two weeks have been very low volume," he added ominously.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
"Rallies in bear markets tend to be somewhat short, but certainly very sharp — and they die on low volume."
"And the last two weeks have been very low volume," he added ominously.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Latest Hugh Hendry Interview
Latest Hugh Hendry`s interview. Hugh is my favourite money manager but he has been completely wrong footed since March. He was on CNBC earlier today.
"Fears about inflation and hyperinflation could create another economic downturn, bigger than the one the world went through, Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer at hedge fund Eclectica, told CNBC Tuesday." in CNBC
Use Internet Explorer or Google Chrome browsers to watch this video. Mozilla has some problems with these CNBC videos.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 29, 2009
Marc Faber`s Short Term Projections
Marc Faber was on Bloomberg TV earlier today and gave his short term projections (4 to 6 weeks in his words):
- dollar will recover somewhat;
- bonds will rally;
- industrial commodities will be under pressure;
- gold will trade sideways to moderately down;
Very interesting comments by Marc because his short term projections are contrary to his long term outlook on the dollar, bonds and commodities in general.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
- dollar will recover somewhat;
- bonds will rally;
- industrial commodities will be under pressure;
- gold will trade sideways to moderately down;
Very interesting comments by Marc because his short term projections are contrary to his long term outlook on the dollar, bonds and commodities in general.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
IEA Cuts Oil Demand Through 2013
The IEA, has cut five-year forecasts for global crude demand because of the economic slump, predicting that consumption will not regain last year’s levels until 2012.
The IEA cut its oil demand estimates for every year through 2013 by about 3 million barrels a day, stating that consumption will average 86.76 million barrels a day in 2012, the first year it will rise above 2008’s level of 85.76 million barrels a day.
“The deep economic recession that has spread worldwide in the past year has taken a severe toll on oil demand,” the IEA said in the report, updating estimates made in December. “This marks a break after several years of strong oil demand growth.”
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
The IEA cut its oil demand estimates for every year through 2013 by about 3 million barrels a day, stating that consumption will average 86.76 million barrels a day in 2012, the first year it will rise above 2008’s level of 85.76 million barrels a day.
“The deep economic recession that has spread worldwide in the past year has taken a severe toll on oil demand,” the IEA said in the report, updating estimates made in December. “This marks a break after several years of strong oil demand growth.”
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 28, 2009
More On The US Savings Rate
In the recession following a borrowing binge that sent consumer debt to the highest level ever, Americans are shutting their wallets and building their nest eggs at the fastest pace in 15 years.
While the trend will put the country’s finances in better balance and reduce its dependence on Chinese investment, it may also restrain economic growth in 2010 and beyond, said Lyle Gramley, a senior economic adviser with New York-based Soleil Securities Corp. and a former Federal Reserve governor.
“There’s been a fundamental change in people’s behavior,” he said. “It will affect the economy for years.”
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
While the trend will put the country’s finances in better balance and reduce its dependence on Chinese investment, it may also restrain economic growth in 2010 and beyond, said Lyle Gramley, a senior economic adviser with New York-based Soleil Securities Corp. and a former Federal Reserve governor.
“There’s been a fundamental change in people’s behavior,” he said. “It will affect the economy for years.”
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 27, 2009
Good Technical Analysis Website
I recommend a visit to the ETF Corner for the technical oriented traders. I just found it while surfing the web.
They have a bearish technical analysis on oil and some good analysis on the EWZ and FXI.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
They have a bearish technical analysis on oil and some good analysis on the EWZ and FXI.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Where Is The Next Big Trading Opportunity?
The US savings rate is at 15 years high. That is very bullish for the US dollar and bearish for stocks,
“The magnitude of that savings rate may have gotten some folks by surprise,” said Philip Orlando, who helps manage $409 billion as chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc. in New York.
Economic and earnings growth is “potentially not going to be as robust as some were thinking. That’s weighing on stocks.”
The Commerce Department said the savings rate among Americans reached 6.9 percent in May, the highest since December 1993, spurring concern that consumer spending will wane.
As I have said before there are only 4 to 5 great trading opportunities each year. I have shorted S&P`s in January for one of the my greatest trades ever and I bought INTC, X, FCX, DRYS, DELL and AA in early March and I did really well riding them higher. Most of my other trades were marginal and did not add or subtract anything substancial to my trading account. Being short a runaway oil market was my worst trade of this year but I still think oil has gotten way, way ahead of itself and will correct in dramatic fashion.
Most of the trades are really only "testing the waters", the kind of plays professional traders do while trying to catch the next big wave. Where is the next big trading opportunity? I am not sure yet. But it can very well be on the US dollar, shorting the stock market or even shorting oil again.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
“The magnitude of that savings rate may have gotten some folks by surprise,” said Philip Orlando, who helps manage $409 billion as chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc. in New York.
Economic and earnings growth is “potentially not going to be as robust as some were thinking. That’s weighing on stocks.”
The Commerce Department said the savings rate among Americans reached 6.9 percent in May, the highest since December 1993, spurring concern that consumer spending will wane.
As I have said before there are only 4 to 5 great trading opportunities each year. I have shorted S&P`s in January for one of the my greatest trades ever and I bought INTC, X, FCX, DRYS, DELL and AA in early March and I did really well riding them higher. Most of my other trades were marginal and did not add or subtract anything substancial to my trading account. Being short a runaway oil market was my worst trade of this year but I still think oil has gotten way, way ahead of itself and will correct in dramatic fashion.
Most of the trades are really only "testing the waters", the kind of plays professional traders do while trying to catch the next big wave. Where is the next big trading opportunity? I am not sure yet. But it can very well be on the US dollar, shorting the stock market or even shorting oil again.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 26, 2009
Taking A Trading Vacation.
After having a fantastic start to the year these last few weeks have been rather difficult. I got trapped on the short side of the oil market and I was only able to do some good S&P Futures trading and two other good trades on Natural Gas and on the 2 Year Schatz Futures on the ECB meeting day.
But I am feeling out of sync with the markets and a bit tired. I have closed all my trading positions and I will do a small trading vacation. The imminent birth of Enzo, excess trading and a very stubborn oil market have taken its toll.
Every trader needs a rest once in a while. And its better to rest before a big drawdown and not after. So the time is right. After two consecutive flat trading months its time to stop and re-energise.
As Stanley Druckenmiller once said, "trading is all about capital preservation and home runs". I will play good defense for now and I will try to hit some home runs later.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
But I am feeling out of sync with the markets and a bit tired. I have closed all my trading positions and I will do a small trading vacation. The imminent birth of Enzo, excess trading and a very stubborn oil market have taken its toll.
Every trader needs a rest once in a while. And its better to rest before a big drawdown and not after. So the time is right. After two consecutive flat trading months its time to stop and re-energise.
As Stanley Druckenmiller once said, "trading is all about capital preservation and home runs". I will play good defense for now and I will try to hit some home runs later.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Saving Rates At 15 Year Highs: Dollar Bullish
The savings rate rose to 6.9%, a 15 year high in the United States. This is very dollar bullish and very desinflationary.
I am holding to my short gold and commodity related stocks and I added to the dollar trade. I think the reflation trade will suffer in the next few trading sessions.
I am long the US Dollar versus the Euro Currency and short Goldcorp, US Steel, Freeport McMoran, Alcoa and JP Morgan.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I am holding to my short gold and commodity related stocks and I added to the dollar trade. I think the reflation trade will suffer in the next few trading sessions.
I am long the US Dollar versus the Euro Currency and short Goldcorp, US Steel, Freeport McMoran, Alcoa and JP Morgan.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Systematic Trading: Capturing The Noise
I have been developing some trading systems that capture the noise in the stock market, day in and day out.
I think trading systems have a big advantage over discretionary trading. There is no tension in it, its effortless. I prefer discretionary trading, but I have to admit that there are only 4 to 5 great trading opportunities each year and most of the moves in the markets are random/noise. Many moves are just preludes to what is going to happen, with many mini false moves and adjustments.
As I will be a father in the next few weeks I will switch a major part of my trading funds to systematic trading. How many of you are trading systems?
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I think trading systems have a big advantage over discretionary trading. There is no tension in it, its effortless. I prefer discretionary trading, but I have to admit that there are only 4 to 5 great trading opportunities each year and most of the moves in the markets are random/noise. Many moves are just preludes to what is going to happen, with many mini false moves and adjustments.
As I will be a father in the next few weeks I will switch a major part of my trading funds to systematic trading. How many of you are trading systems?
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Closed Oil And Dollar Positions On Globex
I closed my short oil position and my currency trade on Globex right after the market close. I knew I probably could not trade today due to some scheduled meetings so I thought I was better off closing all my trading positions except for stocks. I managed to book a small profit on oil and I closed the dollar trade with a 40 pips loss. No big deal.
I was also a bit concerned with the dollar weakness going into the close and how it could affect oil prices today. My suspicions proved correct. Oil is trading higher and above 71 dollars in pre-market. I will wait some more and try to short it at higher levels.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I was also a bit concerned with the dollar weakness going into the close and how it could affect oil prices today. My suspicions proved correct. Oil is trading higher and above 71 dollars in pre-market. I will wait some more and try to short it at higher levels.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 25, 2009
Shorting Oil At 70.50.
Being as bearish as I am I had to take advantage of this oil rally. I am shorting oil at 70.50 USD.
I am slightly bullish on the US Dollar for the near term and I am as bearish as Warren Buffett on the economy. Have you read his comments on the US economy yesterday? Very interesting indeed.
I had a client in my office today that said to me, "oil will be at 100 USD before the end of the year". I said to myself, I must re-enter my short positions before the markets crashes without me. So I couldn`t be out of the oil futures markets for more then 2 days. Price action dictated my short "oil trading vacation".
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I am slightly bullish on the US Dollar for the near term and I am as bearish as Warren Buffett on the economy. Have you read his comments on the US economy yesterday? Very interesting indeed.
I had a client in my office today that said to me, "oil will be at 100 USD before the end of the year". I said to myself, I must re-enter my short positions before the markets crashes without me. So I couldn`t be out of the oil futures markets for more then 2 days. Price action dictated my short "oil trading vacation".
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Is It Time To Re-Short Oil?
Oil is rallying again and trading well above 70 dollars a barrel. I am relieved that I have closed my shorts a few dollars below the current price.
I am still bearish on oil and I may re-short it again if this rally keeps on going.
I was planning to take an "oil vacation", to stay out of the oil market for a few weeks but this rally may very well cut my vacations short.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I am still bearish on oil and I may re-short it again if this rally keeps on going.
I was planning to take an "oil vacation", to stay out of the oil market for a few weeks but this rally may very well cut my vacations short.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Going Long US Dollar. Testing The Waters.
I had a moderate long EUR/USD position from yesterday and I have reversed it now at 1.3945. It was basically a break-even trade, a testing the waters kind of trade, to feel the market.
The stock market is trading up, commodities are firmer and the EUR/USD can`t rally more then 25 ticks? I think that the US dollar has a firm bid at these level. I have only placed a moderate line and I will see what happens now. I plan to add if I am right or eventually reverse again if this apparent strength is a "fake".
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
The stock market is trading up, commodities are firmer and the EUR/USD can`t rally more then 25 ticks? I think that the US dollar has a firm bid at these level. I have only placed a moderate line and I will see what happens now. I plan to add if I am right or eventually reverse again if this apparent strength is a "fake".
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Art Cashin Sees A Big Market Correction
Art Cashin gave his market outlook before the market opening bell. He is quite bearish on the US stock market. These were his comments,
"The market's staggering a bit here. We may be at risk at seeing kind of a multiple correction, correction, in which it will frustrate people by them buying into the correction of the rally which then proceeds to correct again and again. We're at a very touchy area here for the markets."
Cashin also added that he agreed with Buffett's bearish analysis on the economy.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
"The market's staggering a bit here. We may be at risk at seeing kind of a multiple correction, correction, in which it will frustrate people by them buying into the correction of the rally which then proceeds to correct again and again. We're at a very touchy area here for the markets."
Cashin also added that he agreed with Buffett's bearish analysis on the economy.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Bernanke And 7 Year Auction Will Move The Markets
Markets are trading red and I still have short positions on X, AA, FCX, GG and JPM. I may add to those positions on further weakness and I am long EUR/USD.
Art Cashin was on CNBC earlier today and he is expecting a deep correction in the S&P. He had predicted a 15% correction on Friday and he is reiterating his market call.
Initial Claims ticked up and were a bit disappointing for the "bulls" adding to El-Erian`s bearish comments on the economy. Another important data points in today`s trading is the Ben Bernanke hearing at 10am ET and the 7 Year Bond auction at 1pm ET. Markets will be volatile today.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Art Cashin was on CNBC earlier today and he is expecting a deep correction in the S&P. He had predicted a 15% correction on Friday and he is reiterating his market call.
Initial Claims ticked up and were a bit disappointing for the "bulls" adding to El-Erian`s bearish comments on the economy. Another important data points in today`s trading is the Ben Bernanke hearing at 10am ET and the 7 Year Bond auction at 1pm ET. Markets will be volatile today.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 24, 2009
The Fed Was A Non Event
There was not much to do on the "Fed Play" today. I had all my long and short orders on the EUR/USD and S&P Futures lined up and ready to go into the market, but the market response was mute.
I fired a EUR/USD buy order and then when the dollar rallied a bit I sold short 4 commodity stocks, AA, FCX, X and GG and a bank, JPM. So I am carrying a moderate short line on these stocks overnight plus a small EUR/USD currency position. I plan to build on one of these trades and get rid of the other.
I think there is going to be a big move on the EUR/USD cross rate in the next few trading sessions but I am not sure on which direction. We will find out soon.
Have you read the Warren Buffett comments today? It seems that he is still quite bearish on the economy, "We haven't got the economy moving yet.", "I get figures on 70-odd businesses, a lot of them daily. Everything that I see about the economy is that we've had no bounce. "
But his sense of humor remains intact, "Buffett also noted that he had a cataract operation on his left eye about a month ago. He joked that he thought it might help him see green shoots for the economy, but so far he hasn't seen any hopeful signs."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I fired a EUR/USD buy order and then when the dollar rallied a bit I sold short 4 commodity stocks, AA, FCX, X and GG and a bank, JPM. So I am carrying a moderate short line on these stocks overnight plus a small EUR/USD currency position. I plan to build on one of these trades and get rid of the other.
I think there is going to be a big move on the EUR/USD cross rate in the next few trading sessions but I am not sure on which direction. We will find out soon.
Have you read the Warren Buffett comments today? It seems that he is still quite bearish on the economy, "We haven't got the economy moving yet.", "I get figures on 70-odd businesses, a lot of them daily. Everything that I see about the economy is that we've had no bounce. "
But his sense of humor remains intact, "Buffett also noted that he had a cataract operation on his left eye about a month ago. He joked that he thought it might help him see green shoots for the economy, but so far he hasn't seen any hopeful signs."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
How To Play The Fed?
The Fed statement will come out at 2.15 pm ET. If the statement is dovish as the last few statements I think the dollar will move lower agressively and probably the best play for this scenario is to buy the Euro Currency via Forex or via Euro FX Futures.
But if the statement mentions some kind of exit strategy then I think the stock market will be clobbered and the best play will be to short the S&P Futures.
I think that the dollar response will be quite assymetrical. It will move big time is the statement is dovish and it may rally a bit if "exit strategies" or inflation fears are mentioned. Regarding the stock market I also think the move will be assymetrical to the downside. Stocks will fall hard in a "hawkish" statement and may rally only a bit or trade sideways if we get a statement that is similar to the last meeting.
So going into the meeting long Euro FX Futures and short S&P Futures looks a good way to play the FED game today. I will probably wait and pick a direction immediately after the FED but if I wanted to play early, I would play like this.
The S&P Futures are trading at 905 and the Euro FX Futures are trading at 1.4010.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
But if the statement mentions some kind of exit strategy then I think the stock market will be clobbered and the best play will be to short the S&P Futures.
I think that the dollar response will be quite assymetrical. It will move big time is the statement is dovish and it may rally a bit if "exit strategies" or inflation fears are mentioned. Regarding the stock market I also think the move will be assymetrical to the downside. Stocks will fall hard in a "hawkish" statement and may rally only a bit or trade sideways if we get a statement that is similar to the last meeting.
So going into the meeting long Euro FX Futures and short S&P Futures looks a good way to play the FED game today. I will probably wait and pick a direction immediately after the FED but if I wanted to play early, I would play like this.
The S&P Futures are trading at 905 and the Euro FX Futures are trading at 1.4010.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 23, 2009
Art Cashin Says S&P Will Correct 15%
The veteran trader Art Cashin said today that the S&P will probably correct about 15% to make everybody look bad, the ones that are waiting on the sidelines and will enter the market and those that are already in, "The market will probably go down about 15 percent just to fool everybody. You get in about the 10 percent level and people say 'oh my god the market's going down', so you need about 15 percent down to make everyone feel bad," said Art Cashin today on CNBC.
A 15% correction from the top would send the S&P down to 807.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
A 15% correction from the top would send the S&P down to 807.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Dollar Moving Agressively Lower
Dollar is moving agressively lower nearing 1.41 against the Euro Currency. Is this some sort of antecipation to what the FED might say tomorrow afternoon? Leakages on government agencies have been the norm, but the FED has kept its secrecy.
Are traders betting that the FED will keep its ultra expansionary policy and punishing the US Dollar? I think they are.
I have traded some gold stocks on the long side and I grabbed a half a point in the oil short line. I am out of the markets now. I will wait patiently for the FED tomorrow afternoon.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Are traders betting that the FED will keep its ultra expansionary policy and punishing the US Dollar? I think they are.
I have traded some gold stocks on the long side and I grabbed a half a point in the oil short line. I am out of the markets now. I will wait patiently for the FED tomorrow afternoon.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Schizofrenic Move. Shorting Oil Again On This 1 USD Rebound.
I had closed my short oil position below 67 dollars a barrel on Globex earlier today and I was planning on being out of oil for some time. But being as bearish as I am, I cannot sit out. I took advantage of this intraday 1 dollar plus rebound to short again. I think the easiest money to be made is to be short oil.
Now I have shorted it at 68.00 USD. Of course the US Dollar will be the wild card, but sentiment is bearish towards risky assets for the time being and a low 60`s print for oil futures is probably just around the corner.
Its seems almost schizofrenic to re-enter but this is real time professional trading. We must take advantage of the opportunities and be flexible.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Now I have shorted it at 68.00 USD. Of course the US Dollar will be the wild card, but sentiment is bearish towards risky assets for the time being and a low 60`s print for oil futures is probably just around the corner.
Its seems almost schizofrenic to re-enter but this is real time professional trading. We must take advantage of the opportunities and be flexible.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Closed Oil Short Position. Looking For New Opportunities.
I have closed my short oil position today on the Globex market. After having averaged up and sold some contracts above 70, I am closing my full position and taking the loss. This traded never saw the light of day and I have to admit that I was lucky in losing so little as I did. At a certain point, things looked pretty bleak.
I am completely out of trading positions now, and I will defend my monthly trading profits. I will place some small Guerrilla Trades today and warm up for the release of the FED`s statement tomorrow. I will probably play the US Dollar or the Treasury Bonds, either way, long or short.
Yesterday I have found a very interesting quote from Alexander Elder that describe my Guerrilla Trades pretty well, "I tell my horse-playing friends to imagine going into a race where you can place bets after the horses are out of the gate and take your money off the table before the race ends."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
I am completely out of trading positions now, and I will defend my monthly trading profits. I will place some small Guerrilla Trades today and warm up for the release of the FED`s statement tomorrow. I will probably play the US Dollar or the Treasury Bonds, either way, long or short.
Yesterday I have found a very interesting quote from Alexander Elder that describe my Guerrilla Trades pretty well, "I tell my horse-playing friends to imagine going into a race where you can place bets after the horses are out of the gate and take your money off the table before the race ends."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 22, 2009
Markets Are Soft. Fed Will Be Key.
The FED statement or the reaction to the FED statement will be key for the markets. A lot of money will be made if we can read the statement accurately and act immediately. The US Dollar will certainly be a big mover and I am going to focus on that trade, long or short.
Crude Oil Futures tumbled today and I took advantage of that move and closed a part of my shorts. I am tired of being short oil and I will close that position as soon as I can. I think oil will move a lot lower but I am eager to find new market opportunities elsewhere. It was my worst trade of this year, not in terms of dollars because with all the averaging up this trade is not costing me much now, but because of the energy I spent on it. But oil had one of the biggest rallies of all time and against the fundamentals. That does not happen often, actually its pretty rare. In this kind of big one sided price moves against the fundamentals I always get caught. Those moves do not suit my trading style, but they are very rare and I can "cash in" on all other types of price action. Even though I do not want to trade oil in the next few weeks.
The stock market also tumbled and we are in the midst of a big correction. I plan to buy some stocks if the S&P trades in the low 800`s. I plan to buy some commodity names and some tech stocks at much lower prices.
But the big trading opportunity will be on Wednesday. I am looking forward to it.
Today I traded listening to one of my favourite bands, The National. Very good sound, powerful and energetic.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Crude Oil Futures tumbled today and I took advantage of that move and closed a part of my shorts. I am tired of being short oil and I will close that position as soon as I can. I think oil will move a lot lower but I am eager to find new market opportunities elsewhere. It was my worst trade of this year, not in terms of dollars because with all the averaging up this trade is not costing me much now, but because of the energy I spent on it. But oil had one of the biggest rallies of all time and against the fundamentals. That does not happen often, actually its pretty rare. In this kind of big one sided price moves against the fundamentals I always get caught. Those moves do not suit my trading style, but they are very rare and I can "cash in" on all other types of price action. Even though I do not want to trade oil in the next few weeks.
The stock market also tumbled and we are in the midst of a big correction. I plan to buy some stocks if the S&P trades in the low 800`s. I plan to buy some commodity names and some tech stocks at much lower prices.
But the big trading opportunity will be on Wednesday. I am looking forward to it.
Today I traded listening to one of my favourite bands, The National. Very good sound, powerful and energetic.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Oil Is Crashing. Great Trading Day.
Oil is really falling into pieces. It was a long and painful waiting period but this trade is finally paying off. I closed all the added shorts above 70 dollars a barrel at 67.50 and I am riding half of the position down. I expect it to trade to 63-65 level this week.
After I close this position I will not trade oil for a long time. I will focus on new opportunities in other markets. I always do that, after being trapped in a speculative position for a long period of time.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
After I close this position I will not trade oil for a long time. I will focus on new opportunities in other markets. I always do that, after being trapped in a speculative position for a long period of time.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
US Dollar Big Trading Range. Can It Break Out?
I am getting more and more interested in the currency markets. The US Dollar is forming a big trading range since November when it traded at 1.25 against the Euro currency. A month later, in December after the FED meeting where the Quantitative Easing was first mentioned the dollar crashed in a few days and traded at 1.44 against the Euro.
We`ve been stuck in this trading range range since then, despite the huge volatility in the forex markets. In the Bloomberg`s strategist survey there is a 39 cent gap between the high and the low call for the EUR/USD cross. They range from 1.16 and 1.55 by year`s end.
Barclays President said recently that "currency volatility is running at more then double the norm".This volatility is not good for carry trades and as Deutsche Bank`s Werner Eppacher wrote, "You`d earn your carry, you`d earn your price appreciation, and all this yield you`d had over two years disappears in an extremely short time of 48 to 72 hours".
So it seems clear that carry trades will perform poorly but I am not sure about the resolution of this big trading range in the EUR/USD. I am bullish on the dollar short term, but the much more conservative ways of the ECB will probably dictate higher Euro and lower US Dollar in the future.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
We`ve been stuck in this trading range range since then, despite the huge volatility in the forex markets. In the Bloomberg`s strategist survey there is a 39 cent gap between the high and the low call for the EUR/USD cross. They range from 1.16 and 1.55 by year`s end.
Barclays President said recently that "currency volatility is running at more then double the norm".This volatility is not good for carry trades and as Deutsche Bank`s Werner Eppacher wrote, "You`d earn your carry, you`d earn your price appreciation, and all this yield you`d had over two years disappears in an extremely short time of 48 to 72 hours".
So it seems clear that carry trades will perform poorly but I am not sure about the resolution of this big trading range in the EUR/USD. I am bullish on the dollar short term, but the much more conservative ways of the ECB will probably dictate higher Euro and lower US Dollar in the future.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Oil Keeps Selling Off. Good For My Red Ship
It seems that Oil is finally coming to terms to the fundamental situation of the oil market. After selling off on Friday`s session it keeps trading "south" this morning. I am expecting it to print 65 this week and when it gets there I will reassess this trade.
It did take much more time then I had anticipated for oil and risky assets in general to begin to crack down. But while I waited for oil to reverse I added some shorts at higher prices and I traded the S&P Futures and the Dax Futures on the downside plus the Natural Gas long trade, the 2 Year German Schatz sell on the day of the ECB Meeting and plenty of Guerrilla Trades. They all added up to my P&L. While this short oil trade was my worst trade of the last few months, with this added shorts above 70 USD a barrel, this trade is beginning to look less and less harmful.
This trading month is already shaped up to be a good one unless oil suddendly reverses and trades in the 70`s again.
The US Dollar is trading up today gaining more then 90 points. To me the US Dollar is the best way to check if big institutions are on the buy side or on the sell side for the current trading ssession. When the US Dollar trades up, risky assets like stocks and commodities are normally sold.
So, I will keep my oil short position and I will probably do some Guerrilla Trades in the first hour of trading in the US. Have a nice trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
It did take much more time then I had anticipated for oil and risky assets in general to begin to crack down. But while I waited for oil to reverse I added some shorts at higher prices and I traded the S&P Futures and the Dax Futures on the downside plus the Natural Gas long trade, the 2 Year German Schatz sell on the day of the ECB Meeting and plenty of Guerrilla Trades. They all added up to my P&L. While this short oil trade was my worst trade of the last few months, with this added shorts above 70 USD a barrel, this trade is beginning to look less and less harmful.
This trading month is already shaped up to be a good one unless oil suddendly reverses and trades in the 70`s again.
The US Dollar is trading up today gaining more then 90 points. To me the US Dollar is the best way to check if big institutions are on the buy side or on the sell side for the current trading ssession. When the US Dollar trades up, risky assets like stocks and commodities are normally sold.
So, I will keep my oil short position and I will probably do some Guerrilla Trades in the first hour of trading in the US. Have a nice trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 20, 2009
Commodities Performance Year To Date
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
I am shorting oil and I think a major correction has just begun. I am expecting a correction to the 61-64 level.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Fundamental conditions do not support this hefty price level and oil was extremely oversold. Oil is beginning to crack down.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 19, 2009
Nobody Wants Oil Now. Sitting On My Short Lines.
It seems that the oil bulls are running for the exits. Oil is reversing and a major correction may be in the cards. I am sitting tight on my short oil futures expecting much lower prices.
Oil cannot fight conditions, can it? It has traded against fundamentals for weeks but in the end conditions will prevail and shorts will control the market. Its time to sit tight on the short lines and be paid the contango while we will watch oil futures trade down.
If this reversal is for real I will have a very, very good trading month. Oil was the only "deficit" in a rather good trading month.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Oil cannot fight conditions, can it? It has traded against fundamentals for weeks but in the end conditions will prevail and shorts will control the market. Its time to sit tight on the short lines and be paid the contango while we will watch oil futures trade down.
If this reversal is for real I will have a very, very good trading month. Oil was the only "deficit" in a rather good trading month.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Oil Reverses. Still Short Oil Futures.
Oil reversed earlier gains and is selling off on expiration day. I am still short and I have rolled my contracts to August gaining almost 1 dollar in the rolling process.
Short positions in Oil Futures are paying around 11%/Year on Contango roll overs. So short sellers are being payed over half a dollar per contract, per month for being short.
Today Marc Faber will be on CNBC at 7 pm ET so stay tuned. I always like listening to Marc. He is very insightful and slick.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Short positions in Oil Futures are paying around 11%/Year on Contango roll overs. So short sellers are being payed over half a dollar per contract, per month for being short.
Today Marc Faber will be on CNBC at 7 pm ET so stay tuned. I always like listening to Marc. He is very insightful and slick.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 18, 2009
TrimTabs Says Banks Are a Great Short Here
A very bearish outlook on the US stock market by Charles Biderman from Trimtabs Investment Research. Charles say that in the last 3 to 4 weeks retail investors inflows to stock market funds surged and the market was flat, which is a very bearish indicator. Watch the video here.
"Banks are a great short here", says TrimTabs Research.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
"Banks are a great short here", says TrimTabs Research.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Buzz On The Oil Trading Desks
Oil trading desks are a busy place. Today the talk was about economic news, Iran, stock market and hope:
"Any shred of decent economic news gives bulls a positive reinforcement while bears continue to shake their heads. Hope has been a big factor in the oil market in the past two months." Andy Lebow, senior vice president for energy at brokerage MF Global
"The market got a little support from the stock market and consolidated its recent gains," Peter Donovan, vice president at Vantage Trading.
"The market is stubbornly holding up. Prices are up on expectations that the economy is recovering and demand will strengthen.” Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy consulting company
“Down the road, it is likely that we see a sharp downward correction in the market because recent rallies look very fragile. If we don’t get some clear and concrete visible signs that the economy is recovering, we might see some profit-taking in the market by some funds in the next two or three months.” Frederic Lasserre, Societe Generale SA’s Paris-based head of commodities research
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
"Any shred of decent economic news gives bulls a positive reinforcement while bears continue to shake their heads. Hope has been a big factor in the oil market in the past two months." Andy Lebow, senior vice president for energy at brokerage MF Global
"The market got a little support from the stock market and consolidated its recent gains," Peter Donovan, vice president at Vantage Trading.
"The market is stubbornly holding up. Prices are up on expectations that the economy is recovering and demand will strengthen.” Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy consulting company
“Down the road, it is likely that we see a sharp downward correction in the market because recent rallies look very fragile. If we don’t get some clear and concrete visible signs that the economy is recovering, we might see some profit-taking in the market by some funds in the next two or three months.” Frederic Lasserre, Societe Generale SA’s Paris-based head of commodities research
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Still Out Of The Office. No Trading Today.
I haven`t traded today because I was out of the office. I expect to be trading full time again by next week.
Markets are rather quiet today with equities trading marginally on the upside and oil trading up less than half a percent. Dollar remains stable.
I am still short oil with a moderate short position, after having closed some contracts yesterday at 69 dollars per barrel.
We will have quadruple withching tomorrow and I will place some Guerrilla Trades if I will be able to be at the office after the opening bell.
I am taking advantage of this forced pause on my trading, related to the imminent birth of my first son Enzo to re-read some old books. Today I caught a very good trading quote by a professional trader, "Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antilope, but preferably one that is sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That to me, is the epitome of professional trading."
This is what I like to do on my Guerrilla Trades. Sell short the sick horses and buy the strongest and healthier stocks when the market momentum is high, normally right after the opening bell.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Markets are rather quiet today with equities trading marginally on the upside and oil trading up less than half a percent. Dollar remains stable.
I am still short oil with a moderate short position, after having closed some contracts yesterday at 69 dollars per barrel.
We will have quadruple withching tomorrow and I will place some Guerrilla Trades if I will be able to be at the office after the opening bell.
I am taking advantage of this forced pause on my trading, related to the imminent birth of my first son Enzo to re-read some old books. Today I caught a very good trading quote by a professional trader, "Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antilope, but preferably one that is sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That to me, is the epitome of professional trading."
This is what I like to do on my Guerrilla Trades. Sell short the sick horses and buy the strongest and healthier stocks when the market momentum is high, normally right after the opening bell.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Jun 17, 2009
Dollar And Stock Market Historical Correlation
A few days ago I wrote an article entitled "The Dollar Is The Best Barometer For Institutional Mood" stating the negative correlation between the US Dollar and Risky Assets, stocks in particular.
Today I found a very interesting article in Bespoke`s website about the US Dollar and stock market correlation through out the years. Their study shows that this negative correlation is at multi year highs,
"If it seems like the S&P 500 and the Dollar move in the opposite direction of each other on a daily basis, it's because they pretty much do. In fact, since daily pricing of the US Dollar begins in 1970, the six month correlation between the daily change of the two is at its most negative level ever. The next most negative level of correlation between US stocks and the dollar came in 1982. We can only hope, however, that our stocks and currency can perform like they did in the years following 1982." in Bespoke Investment Group
I remember back in early 2000`s, just before 9/11 a strong dollar was good for stocks and that was an indicator I added to my trading arsenal back then for some Guerrilla Trading plays.
Bespoke posted a fantastic graph with this historical US Dollar, S&P 500 correlation:
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
Today I found a very interesting article in Bespoke`s website about the US Dollar and stock market correlation through out the years. Their study shows that this negative correlation is at multi year highs,
"If it seems like the S&P 500 and the Dollar move in the opposite direction of each other on a daily basis, it's because they pretty much do. In fact, since daily pricing of the US Dollar begins in 1970, the six month correlation between the daily change of the two is at its most negative level ever. The next most negative level of correlation between US stocks and the dollar came in 1982. We can only hope, however, that our stocks and currency can perform like they did in the years following 1982." in Bespoke Investment Group
I remember back in early 2000`s, just before 9/11 a strong dollar was good for stocks and that was an indicator I added to my trading arsenal back then for some Guerrilla Trading plays.
Bespoke posted a fantastic graph with this historical US Dollar, S&P 500 correlation:
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.
ENI`s CEO Says Demand Is Not Behind This Rally
The rise in oil prices this year has not been caused by a rise in demand, the head of Italian energy firm ENI said on Wednesday. "I don't see the consumption, I don't see the reason why oil prices should move up again," ENI Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni told reporters during a presentation about mechanisms to reduce volatility in the oil market.
I am still short Nymex Crude Oil Futures but I was able to reduce some positions when oil traded down to below 69 dollars moments after the Oil Inventories data release. As I said eralier today I had some buy orders around the 69 dollars level, to close those added shorts. I may put those added short lines tomorrow.
I could only trade for the first hour of the US trading session and I did 2 Guerrilla Trades in the banking sector. They both went OK.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
I am still short Nymex Crude Oil Futures but I was able to reduce some positions when oil traded down to below 69 dollars moments after the Oil Inventories data release. As I said eralier today I had some buy orders around the 69 dollars level, to close those added shorts. I may put those added short lines tomorrow.
I could only trade for the first hour of the US trading session and I did 2 Guerrilla Trades in the banking sector. They both went OK.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Is Oil Beginning To Sell Off? Added To Short Position.
Finally the big downmove in oil is taking shape. I have added some contracts on Globex at 70.50.
I am riding them down. Dollar is stable, stocks are selling off and oil will be in the mid 60`s before Friday. This will be a great short play.
Fundamentals scream "Going South!" and technicals are beginning to reverse to indicate lower prices. A big sell off may be in the cards.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
I am riding them down. Dollar is stable, stocks are selling off and oil will be in the mid 60`s before Friday. This will be a great short play.
Fundamentals scream "Going South!" and technicals are beginning to reverse to indicate lower prices. A big sell off may be in the cards.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Watch The Financials Stocks For Some Intraday Plays
I am expecting to see big activity in the banking and financial stocks today. It will be the place to do some "Guerrilla Trades". They are slightly down in the pre-market but they will be moving fast today. I don`t know which way they will be moving, we will have to wait and see. But if I had to guess I would probably say down.
In this type of intraday plays, which I nicknamed "Guerrilla Trades" its important to go with the institutional flow, buy what institutions are buying and sell what they are selling. Intraday plays have a narrow time window by definition so its important to go with the flow.
I recall an interesting quote by Linda Bradford Raschke, "My niche is short-term trading. I believe that only short term price swings can be predicted with any precision". I don`t totally agree with the statement and I like to trade longer term as well, but what I would say is that in the very short-term, especially on intraday stock trading you have to go with the flow.
Oil is trading down again and I remain short. I have added some short contracts overnight that I might close again around 69 to book a short term profit.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
In this type of intraday plays, which I nicknamed "Guerrilla Trades" its important to go with the institutional flow, buy what institutions are buying and sell what they are selling. Intraday plays have a narrow time window by definition so its important to go with the flow.
I recall an interesting quote by Linda Bradford Raschke, "My niche is short-term trading. I believe that only short term price swings can be predicted with any precision". I don`t totally agree with the statement and I like to trade longer term as well, but what I would say is that in the very short-term, especially on intraday stock trading you have to go with the flow.
Oil is trading down again and I remain short. I have added some short contracts overnight that I might close again around 69 to book a short term profit.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 16, 2009
Is The Rally In Risk Over?
Stocks and commodities are beginning to come down and the argument that the rally in risk is over is getting stronger and stronger. Dollar regained its foot and risky assets are being sold across the board. I believe that selling commmodities and stocks short will lead to profitability in the foreseeable future.
Oil rallied earlier today, spiking again above 72 dollars a barrel only to reverse and close lower for the day. I firmly believe that a top in oil is in and I am going to play it accordingly. I am still short Nymex Crude Oil Futures and I will probably add to my short lines in the next trading sessions.
--------------Word On The Oil Trading Desks------------------
"If you live by the dollar you die by the dollar. The rally in oil prices has not been based on weekly petroleum reports or any significant upward revision but more on the dollar and the equity market." said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective
"Market forecast supply and demand, in my view, will not support an oil price above $50, let alone above $70. So, obviously, the oil price is inflated, and they are inflated in the hands of the same players that brought about the global financial crisis." Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer & Co.
"I don't have a prediction short term, because it's a little bit of a fool's game. It seems that technical factors drive it, as much as the fundamental picture, so you can always argue a bullish case or a bearish case." says Mark Brown, oil services research analyst for Pritchard Capital Partners.
It seems that Mark is a bit confused, not?
Don`t forget that Obama will speak tomorrow about the new financial regulation and that can be a market mover.
On a final note, Enzo is not born yet, it seems that was just a little scare. We hope he can stay a few more weeks inside her mother.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Oil rallied earlier today, spiking again above 72 dollars a barrel only to reverse and close lower for the day. I firmly believe that a top in oil is in and I am going to play it accordingly. I am still short Nymex Crude Oil Futures and I will probably add to my short lines in the next trading sessions.
--------------Word On The Oil Trading Desks------------------
"If you live by the dollar you die by the dollar. The rally in oil prices has not been based on weekly petroleum reports or any significant upward revision but more on the dollar and the equity market." said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective
"Market forecast supply and demand, in my view, will not support an oil price above $50, let alone above $70. So, obviously, the oil price is inflated, and they are inflated in the hands of the same players that brought about the global financial crisis." Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer & Co.
"I don't have a prediction short term, because it's a little bit of a fool's game. It seems that technical factors drive it, as much as the fundamental picture, so you can always argue a bullish case or a bearish case." says Mark Brown, oil services research analyst for Pritchard Capital Partners.
It seems that Mark is a bit confused, not?
Don`t forget that Obama will speak tomorrow about the new financial regulation and that can be a market mover.
On a final note, Enzo is not born yet, it seems that was just a little scare. We hope he can stay a few more weeks inside her mother.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
No Trading Today. My First Son May Arrive Sooner Then Expected.
Tough night in contrast with the good trading day I had yesterday. We woke up in the middle of the night and drove to the hospital because my wife is pregnant and had some contractions. We are a bit scared because the baby is only 30 weeks old and its still a bit early for him to come to the world. By the way, he already has a name. We will call him Enzo.
Of course, I will be out of the office today and maybe tomorrow. I will instruct my staff to reduce my oil position (the only position I left open from yesterday) under certain circunstances.
I will quote one of the most popular trading quotes of all time, "There is much more to life then trading".
Have a nice trading day. Don`t let them beat you.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Of course, I will be out of the office today and maybe tomorrow. I will instruct my staff to reduce my oil position (the only position I left open from yesterday) under certain circunstances.
I will quote one of the most popular trading quotes of all time, "There is much more to life then trading".
Have a nice trading day. Don`t let them beat you.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 15, 2009
Good Trading Day. Still Short Oil Futures.
I had a very good trading day today with both oil and Dax Futures plunging. I covered my shorts in the DAX Futures very near the close of trading for nearly a 180 points profit. Very good indeed. I will keeping focusing on the short crude oil futures position and on my intraday Guerrilla Trades.
I did seven Guerrilla Trades today, shorting APC, COP, JPM, GG, FISV and POT all for a small profit and buying V for the only loser of the day. Basically I sold the weakest stocks in the weakest sectors and bought the only stock in my list that was trading in the green. It did not work for V but it worked on all 6 shorts.
As I told you this morning I re-read Michael Marcus interview in the Market Wizards book. I haven`t read it in a while and I was impressed with the quality of many of his insights. For instance, he says, "Gut feel is very importnt. I don`t know of any great professional trader that does not have it. Being a sucessful trader also takes courage: the courage to try, the courage to fail, the courage to succeed and the courage to keep on going when the going gets tough."
"For months the market has been banking on these two trends - equities and the dollar. We don't have any physical tightness so we've been counting on these other markets for support. The market needs to reevaluate whether it's a smart trade to assume the dollar is going to be weak." said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective.
"Oil prices continued showing the weakness that pervaded Friday's market as participants begin to reassess holding length," Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president at MF Global in New York, wrote in a research note.
"Even a steep drop in prices likely would do little to stop oil's rise over the long term, my feeling is we're going a lot higher, but within that it won't be a straight line. The secular trend is, it's harder to find oil and costs are going up, and that will ultimately lead to much higher prices. A correction could take oil prices as low as $60 a barrel but would likely be a small blip in the move higher." said Stephen Davis, associate portfolio manager for the Alpine Mutual Funds in Purchase, N.Y.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
I did seven Guerrilla Trades today, shorting APC, COP, JPM, GG, FISV and POT all for a small profit and buying V for the only loser of the day. Basically I sold the weakest stocks in the weakest sectors and bought the only stock in my list that was trading in the green. It did not work for V but it worked on all 6 shorts.
As I told you this morning I re-read Michael Marcus interview in the Market Wizards book. I haven`t read it in a while and I was impressed with the quality of many of his insights. For instance, he says, "Gut feel is very importnt. I don`t know of any great professional trader that does not have it. Being a sucessful trader also takes courage: the courage to try, the courage to fail, the courage to succeed and the courage to keep on going when the going gets tough."
------These were the words on the oil trading desks today---------
"For months the market has been banking on these two trends - equities and the dollar. We don't have any physical tightness so we've been counting on these other markets for support. The market needs to reevaluate whether it's a smart trade to assume the dollar is going to be weak." said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective.
"Oil prices continued showing the weakness that pervaded Friday's market as participants begin to reassess holding length," Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president at MF Global in New York, wrote in a research note.
"Even a steep drop in prices likely would do little to stop oil's rise over the long term, my feeling is we're going a lot higher, but within that it won't be a straight line. The secular trend is, it's harder to find oil and costs are going up, and that will ultimately lead to much higher prices. A correction could take oil prices as low as $60 a barrel but would likely be a small blip in the move higher." said Stephen Davis, associate portfolio manager for the Alpine Mutual Funds in Purchase, N.Y.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Oil Is Finally Selling Off.
Oil is selling off today trading below 70 dollars a barrel for the first time in a few trading sessions. Dollar is very strong today and all risky assets are being sold.
This has been the most painful trade of the year for my trading but is really beginning to look a bit brighter. The contracts I have sold over 70 are already in the money. All in all its turning out to be a very good trading month.
I think oil still has plenty of downside because many bull players were trapped by this deceiving rise and the strong dollar will put some wind in the commodities face.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
This has been the most painful trade of the year for my trading but is really beginning to look a bit brighter. The contracts I have sold over 70 are already in the money. All in all its turning out to be a very good trading month.
I think oil still has plenty of downside because many bull players were trapped by this deceiving rise and the strong dollar will put some wind in the commodities face.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Dollar Is The Best Barometer For Institutional "Mood"
Of all indicators I track the US Dollar is the most accurate to perceive if institutions are on the buy side - "risky assets wanted" or in a selling mode - "avoiding risky assets".
When the dollar is up, commodities and stocks trade mostly lower and the other way around. I always watch the dollar to make my intraday guerrilla trades. Today I am playing exclusively on the short side on these trades.
On the more structural plays, Oil is trading lower and really selling off now and the DAX futures are selling off more then 100 points. It will certainly be a good trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
When the dollar is up, commodities and stocks trade mostly lower and the other way around. I always watch the dollar to make my intraday guerrilla trades. Today I am playing exclusively on the short side on these trades.
On the more structural plays, Oil is trading lower and really selling off now and the DAX futures are selling off more then 100 points. It will certainly be a good trading day.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Oil And Stocks Printing Red. Good For My Red Ship.
Oil Futures and stock futures are printing red this morning. I am still short oil and German DAX Futures and expecting a major correction on both. I have added to my oil shorts. I am now short at 58.50, 70 and 71.50. The first leg of this trade will not see the light of day in the near future but the other two will be in the money in a jifty.
I think things will look bright for the short side of the market in the near future. Please read my S&P analysis from yesterday where I mentioned the tightest trading range in a long time and it may be broken on the downside today.
In the weekend I went to the beach and re-read Michael Marcus interview on Market Wizards written almost 20 years ago. There are lots of trading wisdom in his words and I have selected this quote for today, "I think to be in the upper echelon of sucessful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It`s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn".
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
I think things will look bright for the short side of the market in the near future. Please read my S&P analysis from yesterday where I mentioned the tightest trading range in a long time and it may be broken on the downside today.
In the weekend I went to the beach and re-read Michael Marcus interview on Market Wizards written almost 20 years ago. There are lots of trading wisdom in his words and I have selected this quote for today, "I think to be in the upper echelon of sucessful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It`s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn".
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 14, 2009
S&P 500 In A Tight Trading Range. I Will Short It If Volatility Expands On The Downside.
This is the tighest trading range I have seen in the S&P 500 for a long period of time. The market has been perfect for my S&P trading style, selling when it spikes up and makes multiday highs and closing short when it approaches multiday lows. The market is stuck between 930 and 950 for 10 trading days now.
This trading range won`t last for much longer. I expect this trading range to be broken on the downside because so many retail and fund managers are so optimistic and bullish. My view is that there is no one left to buy at these prices and that the economy is not so strong as many hoped it to be.
I have been playing the short side of the market and probably I will keep doing it. If the market keeps trading along these prices I will keep profiting from these fluctuations that lead to nowhere but keep the bulls happy. This trading range is giving a sense of security, a false sense of security to the bull players.
Now, if the market breaks on the downside with expanding volatility this type of trading I have been doing will not fit a one-sided market. If the market breaks, I will not need to be timing my short selling and my buys to cover short. All I will need to do is to sit on my short lines. I won`t have to much trouble doing that being as bearish as I am if I can sell short at the right time. Look at the last 10 candlesticks in the chart below. Quite amazing.
In the graph below we can see that the Average True Range a good measure of volatility is making lows not seen since last summer. Just one more thing. As Art Cashin usually says, bear market rallies die on declining volume. Watch the volume trend in the graph below.
Have a good trading week.
This trading range won`t last for much longer. I expect this trading range to be broken on the downside because so many retail and fund managers are so optimistic and bullish. My view is that there is no one left to buy at these prices and that the economy is not so strong as many hoped it to be.
I have been playing the short side of the market and probably I will keep doing it. If the market keeps trading along these prices I will keep profiting from these fluctuations that lead to nowhere but keep the bulls happy. This trading range is giving a sense of security, a false sense of security to the bull players.
Now, if the market breaks on the downside with expanding volatility this type of trading I have been doing will not fit a one-sided market. If the market breaks, I will not need to be timing my short selling and my buys to cover short. All I will need to do is to sit on my short lines. I won`t have to much trouble doing that being as bearish as I am if I can sell short at the right time. Look at the last 10 candlesticks in the chart below. Quite amazing.
In the graph below we can see that the Average True Range a good measure of volatility is making lows not seen since last summer. Just one more thing. As Art Cashin usually says, bear market rallies die on declining volume. Watch the volume trend in the graph below.
Have a good trading week.
Jun 13, 2009
Veteran Trader Art Cashin: "A Lot Of People Are Beginning To Wonder If The Rally's Finally Beginning To Run Out Of Steam"
Veteran stock trader, Art Cashin thinks that this bull run has run its course:
"We're building...a stall formation. A lot of people are beginning to wonder if the rally's finally beginning to run out of steam. Today and maybe the next five days will tell us that very clearly."
"Oil is right up against its 52-week moving average, about $73. The dollar is also at a critical area. The market's going to take its pulse, take its temperature, and say 'oh my God, I feel lousy, I'm gonna lie down.'"
"Next week ought to be a lulu," Cashin warned.
I always like listening to Cashin. He is a true NYSE legend.
"We're building...a stall formation. A lot of people are beginning to wonder if the rally's finally beginning to run out of steam. Today and maybe the next five days will tell us that very clearly."
"Oil is right up against its 52-week moving average, about $73. The dollar is also at a critical area. The market's going to take its pulse, take its temperature, and say 'oh my God, I feel lousy, I'm gonna lie down.'"
"Next week ought to be a lulu," Cashin warned.
I always like listening to Cashin. He is a true NYSE legend.
Art Hogan Concerned With Commercial Real Estate
I found this very interesting set of comments from Art Hogan, the star US money manager. He is concerned about the situation in Commercial Real Estate and says it can be a ticking time bomb:
"It's the "one thing that can roll everything over. If we see a major lag in the economy and credit because of commercial real estate — it’s going to be the 800-pound gorilla that’s been in the room for a while. It doesn’t get much conversation and doesn’t get much sponsorship or relief from either the Treasury or the Fed."
"It could be the ticking time bomb."
Even though Art Hogan sees another 10% upside to the stock market and thinks that banks will not participate further in the rally:
“I don’t think financials can lead us for the next 12 weeks” and “Going forth, there’s at least another 10 percent to run.”
Hogan added that he expects the dollar to fall while commodities strengthen and said companies that are levered to inflation are going to continue
"It's the "one thing that can roll everything over. If we see a major lag in the economy and credit because of commercial real estate — it’s going to be the 800-pound gorilla that’s been in the room for a while. It doesn’t get much conversation and doesn’t get much sponsorship or relief from either the Treasury or the Fed."
"It could be the ticking time bomb."
Even though Art Hogan sees another 10% upside to the stock market and thinks that banks will not participate further in the rally:
“I don’t think financials can lead us for the next 12 weeks” and “Going forth, there’s at least another 10 percent to run.”
Hogan added that he expects the dollar to fall while commodities strengthen and said companies that are levered to inflation are going to continue
G8 Finance Minister Says Extra Liquidity Is Fueling Oil Speculation
"Italy's finance minister Saturday expressed concern that the big stimulus used by the Group of Eight leading economies to fight the recession was already recreating the kind of financial speculation that was at the root of the economic crisis.
Giulio Tremonti told a news conference at the end of a meeting of G8 finance ministers that financial speculation had returned, especially in oil markets, where prices have recently risen sharply, posing a threat to the recovery.
"Instead of financing the real economy, the extra liquidity in the system has this tendency to fuel speculation," Tremonti said." in the WSJ
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Giulio Tremonti told a news conference at the end of a meeting of G8 finance ministers that financial speculation had returned, especially in oil markets, where prices have recently risen sharply, posing a threat to the recovery.
"Instead of financing the real economy, the extra liquidity in the system has this tendency to fuel speculation," Tremonti said." in the WSJ
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Best Trading And Investing Books
Last week I ranked all the trading and investment books that I have read from 1 to 10. For those that missed that article, this weekend I am posting a short version of that post with only the books that I think are really worth their cover price ans should be read and re-read.
Here we go,
Reminiscences of A Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefevre: 10, the best book ever written about speculation;
Market Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 10, a short cut to trading mastery; fantastic interviews wuth the best traders of the 80`s and early 90`s; a must have to read once a year; Ed Seykota`s and Richard Dennis`s interviews are probably the best; Gary Bielfeldt interview is my favourite because it underlines a very important message: we only need one well timed and well sized trade to get wildly rich;
The New Markets Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 9, a good book but not so good as the original; still a must have in every trader`s bookshelf; Linda Raschke interview is probably my favourite;
How I Made 2,000,000 In The Stock Market, by Nicolas Darvas, 8, very good reading for a book that was written over 30 years ago; its an investment biography from a Wall Street outsider;
Fooled By Randomness, Nassim Taleb, 8, a brilliant book from a brilliant mind;
Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom, by Van Tharp, 8, a good trading book about trading systems and the psychology of trading; very good;
Investment Biker, by Jim Rogers, 8, a good travel book, a good investment book and a good economics book written by a legendary investor;
How To trade In Stocks, Jesse Livermore, 7, not as good as Reminiscences, but a must have book for seasoned and aspiring traders;
Hot Commodities, by Jim Rogers, 7, the best book on commodities;
Pit Bull, by Marty Schwartz, 7, a good book about a sucessful S&P Futures daytrader;
Way Of A Turtle, by Faith, 7, the true story of Richard Dennis`s turtles experiment; very good for systematic traders;
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Here we go,
Reminiscences of A Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefevre: 10, the best book ever written about speculation;
Market Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 10, a short cut to trading mastery; fantastic interviews wuth the best traders of the 80`s and early 90`s; a must have to read once a year; Ed Seykota`s and Richard Dennis`s interviews are probably the best; Gary Bielfeldt interview is my favourite because it underlines a very important message: we only need one well timed and well sized trade to get wildly rich;
The New Markets Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 9, a good book but not so good as the original; still a must have in every trader`s bookshelf; Linda Raschke interview is probably my favourite;
How I Made 2,000,000 In The Stock Market, by Nicolas Darvas, 8, very good reading for a book that was written over 30 years ago; its an investment biography from a Wall Street outsider;
Fooled By Randomness, Nassim Taleb, 8, a brilliant book from a brilliant mind;
Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom, by Van Tharp, 8, a good trading book about trading systems and the psychology of trading; very good;
Investment Biker, by Jim Rogers, 8, a good travel book, a good investment book and a good economics book written by a legendary investor;
How To trade In Stocks, Jesse Livermore, 7, not as good as Reminiscences, but a must have book for seasoned and aspiring traders;
Hot Commodities, by Jim Rogers, 7, the best book on commodities;
Pit Bull, by Marty Schwartz, 7, a good book about a sucessful S&P Futures daytrader;
Way Of A Turtle, by Faith, 7, the true story of Richard Dennis`s turtles experiment; very good for systematic traders;
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 12, 2009
I Dreamt That Oil Prices Were At 95 USD
I can tell you it was a quite scary nightmare. I dreamt the oil prices are trading at 95 dollars a barrel and when I woke up I had to switch on Bloomberg TV to check the quotes. I need a resting and peaceful weekend, I am going to the beach.
While my subconcious mind is quite bullish on oil my conscious mind is as bearish as it can be. Oil Futures are printing red this morning and are trading around 71.50 USD. Maybe its the beginning of some kind of correction.
I could make use of my recent profits in the S&P Futures and Natural Gas to reduce a little bit my oil position and do not care so much if it keeps rising or of it stalls and reverses. But I am a patient man and my recent trading form outside the oil complex has boosted my confidence again. So I can sit patiently with the profits already booked this month and wait a bit more.
I will leave today with one of my favourite Jesse Livermore market quotes, "The training of a stock trader is like a medical education. The physician has to spend long years learning anatomy, physiology, materia medica and collateral subjects by the dozen. He learns the theory and then proceeds to devote his life to the the practice. He observes and classifies all sorts of pathological phenomena. He learns to diagnose. If his diagnosis is correct - nad that depends upon the accuracy of his observation - he ought to do pretty well in his prognosis, always keeping in mind, of course, that human fallibility and the utterly foreseen will keep him from scoring 100% of bull`s eyes. And then as he gains experience, he learns not only to do the right thing but to do it instantly, so that many people will think he does it instinctively." Sometimes great traders seems to do things out of impulse. But of course there isn`t any impulse at all. Its the talk and ways of experience converted into action.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
While my subconcious mind is quite bullish on oil my conscious mind is as bearish as it can be. Oil Futures are printing red this morning and are trading around 71.50 USD. Maybe its the beginning of some kind of correction.
I could make use of my recent profits in the S&P Futures and Natural Gas to reduce a little bit my oil position and do not care so much if it keeps rising or of it stalls and reverses. But I am a patient man and my recent trading form outside the oil complex has boosted my confidence again. So I can sit patiently with the profits already booked this month and wait a bit more.
I will leave today with one of my favourite Jesse Livermore market quotes, "The training of a stock trader is like a medical education. The physician has to spend long years learning anatomy, physiology, materia medica and collateral subjects by the dozen. He learns the theory and then proceeds to devote his life to the the practice. He observes and classifies all sorts of pathological phenomena. He learns to diagnose. If his diagnosis is correct - nad that depends upon the accuracy of his observation - he ought to do pretty well in his prognosis, always keeping in mind, of course, that human fallibility and the utterly foreseen will keep him from scoring 100% of bull`s eyes. And then as he gains experience, he learns not only to do the right thing but to do it instantly, so that many people will think he does it instinctively." Sometimes great traders seems to do things out of impulse. But of course there isn`t any impulse at all. Its the talk and ways of experience converted into action.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 11, 2009
Good Sell Off Into The Close. Good For My Red Ship
I re-shorted my S&P Futures at 946 earlier today and I closed them a few seconds ago at 942.50. I profited a few points going into the close and I will sleep a lot better not carrying that heavy short line.
I am still expecting a major correction in the stock market and I will keep playing on the short side.
Today I did a good trade in the Natural Gas Futures going long before the inventory data and selling in the spike after the data. Natural Gas rallied strongly today and I took my profits. It was a good trading session.
Of course that oil went up again. I wasn`t expecting other thing... :)
I will probably add a bit further to oil my oil shorts making use of these Natural Gas and S&P profits. I am as bearish as ever on Oil. Prices will probably collapse soon and I will add more contracts on the first signal of a major sell off. After being long and wrong for so long on oil I will take advantage of that and really pile in when and if it reverses.
The 30 Year auction went well but markets reversed anyway, "U.S. Treasury prices rose sharply Thursday in a rally fueled by a solid auction of 30-year debt, which assuaged some worries over the cost of financing the nation's rising budget deficit." in CNBC
The termites came late to work late in the day but its better late then never. I love making money shorting the S&P`s when I am as bearish as I am now.
I need a glass of Port Wine. I will go out for a drink, I need to re-energise. This week I am feeling exhausted.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
I am still expecting a major correction in the stock market and I will keep playing on the short side.
Today I did a good trade in the Natural Gas Futures going long before the inventory data and selling in the spike after the data. Natural Gas rallied strongly today and I took my profits. It was a good trading session.
Of course that oil went up again. I wasn`t expecting other thing... :)
I will probably add a bit further to oil my oil shorts making use of these Natural Gas and S&P profits. I am as bearish as ever on Oil. Prices will probably collapse soon and I will add more contracts on the first signal of a major sell off. After being long and wrong for so long on oil I will take advantage of that and really pile in when and if it reverses.
The 30 Year auction went well but markets reversed anyway, "U.S. Treasury prices rose sharply Thursday in a rally fueled by a solid auction of 30-year debt, which assuaged some worries over the cost of financing the nation's rising budget deficit." in CNBC
The termites came late to work late in the day but its better late then never. I love making money shorting the S&P`s when I am as bearish as I am now.
I need a glass of Port Wine. I will go out for a drink, I need to re-energise. This week I am feeling exhausted.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Pretty Active Trading Day. Shorting S&P`s At 946.
I cannot sit out of the US stock market being as bearish as I am. There will be a 30 Year Bond auction at 1.00 pm ET and that can be a market mover. I am selling the S&P`s again expecting another good ride down as I had yesterday.
The termites are still eating the house but few people seem to notice. Fannie Mae fixed interest on mortgages ticked up 30 basis points in a single week. Gasoline is getting more expensive by the day. This will kill any economic recovery and the stock market will be smashed. The million dollar question is "When?".
As they say in Italy, "Rome wasn`t built in a day". We have to be patient and wait for the termites to do their job at their own pace. I have to admit that the S&P`s are by far my favourite trading vehicule and the most profitable one for my trading style.
Maybe I should let oil go off my radars. But I still have a position to "land safely" in a pretty narrow runaway.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
The termites are still eating the house but few people seem to notice. Fannie Mae fixed interest on mortgages ticked up 30 basis points in a single week. Gasoline is getting more expensive by the day. This will kill any economic recovery and the stock market will be smashed. The million dollar question is "When?".
As they say in Italy, "Rome wasn`t built in a day". We have to be patient and wait for the termites to do their job at their own pace. I have to admit that the S&P`s are by far my favourite trading vehicule and the most profitable one for my trading style.
Maybe I should let oil go off my radars. But I still have a position to "land safely" in a pretty narrow runaway.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Buying Natural Gas.
I am going long Natural Gas. I am expecting a strong upmove over the next few trading sessions. I bought before the Inventories Report at 3.70 and again at 3.74.
I think there is big upside potential in this trade. Last week Natural Gas dropped right after the data responding to higher then expected inventories but then reversed and rallied through out the day.
Things are looking good before the data, Natural Gas Futures are trading up over 1%. Voulme is way, way up over the last few trading weeks. Lots of traders are positioning for a major move.
Post Trade: Sold NG on the post data spike at several tranches between 3.82 and 3.84. I will make use of these profits to sell some S&P`s. these fast trades are my favourites. No pain at all.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
I think there is big upside potential in this trade. Last week Natural Gas dropped right after the data responding to higher then expected inventories but then reversed and rallied through out the day.
Things are looking good before the data, Natural Gas Futures are trading up over 1%. Voulme is way, way up over the last few trading weeks. Lots of traders are positioning for a major move.
Post Trade: Sold NG on the post data spike at several tranches between 3.82 and 3.84. I will make use of these profits to sell some S&P`s. these fast trades are my favourites. No pain at all.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Shorting Dax Futures. It Seems Like It Will Print Red.
Shorted Dax Futures at 5065 for an intraday play. It looks like we are going to print red in spite of the moderately good economic data. On the surface at least.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Watch Natural Gas. A Rally May Start At Anytime.
Im am out of the S&P and I will do some Guerrilla Trades today. I need a rest from these big short lines on the S&P Futures. I may short today but I will not carry them overnight. Yesterday was a great trading day. I really enjoyed riding those S&P`S down and closing before the late afternoon rally.
But I am still bearish and I will keep shorting whenever I spot an opportunity.
I am waiting for today`s important economic data, Retail Sales and Initial Claims. Watch the Bonds. They are selling off again anf that spells trouble for the stock market.
Oil is rising again. It seems like its waiting for all the shorts to cover at top prices to suddendly reverse and sell off. I will wait patiently. Underlying conditions dictate much lower prices and market is way, way overbought. Trend followers may even take it a further few dollars up but I do not care. I am sitting on these shorts.
The EIA said that oil demand is contracting less then antecipated and that is fueling another up day on oil:
"oil demand will contract by less than previously expected in 2009, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday. Global oil demand is expected to fall in 2009 by 2.47 million barrels per day to 83.3 million. The IEA's previous forecast was for consumption to contract by 2.56 million bpd, the sharpest fall since 1981." in CNN Money
Watch Natural Gas today. Inventories will come out at 3.30 ET and last week after the bearish inventory data the Natural Gas Futures sold off and then rallied strongly into the close. Natural Gas is in a bottoming process and a violent rally may start at anytime. I will have my eyes on NG today.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
But I am still bearish and I will keep shorting whenever I spot an opportunity.
I am waiting for today`s important economic data, Retail Sales and Initial Claims. Watch the Bonds. They are selling off again anf that spells trouble for the stock market.
Oil is rising again. It seems like its waiting for all the shorts to cover at top prices to suddendly reverse and sell off. I will wait patiently. Underlying conditions dictate much lower prices and market is way, way overbought. Trend followers may even take it a further few dollars up but I do not care. I am sitting on these shorts.
The EIA said that oil demand is contracting less then antecipated and that is fueling another up day on oil:
"oil demand will contract by less than previously expected in 2009, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday. Global oil demand is expected to fall in 2009 by 2.47 million barrels per day to 83.3 million. The IEA's previous forecast was for consumption to contract by 2.56 million bpd, the sharpest fall since 1981." in CNN Money
Watch Natural Gas today. Inventories will come out at 3.30 ET and last week after the bearish inventory data the Natural Gas Futures sold off and then rallied strongly into the close. Natural Gas is in a bottoming process and a violent rally may start at anytime. I will have my eyes on NG today.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 10, 2009
What Is Driving The Oil Market?
A look at this week's energy inventory data, with Ray Carbone, Paramount Options. Ray explains what is driving this market. Very interesting.
Closing My S&P Futures With A 18 Points Profit. Not Bad.
I have closed my short S&P Futures positions at 933. I made a 18 point profit in a huge position and I am at peace with my S&P Futures trading for now. I will keep trading on the short side for the next few trading sessions, though.
That overnight maneuver really paid off, gaining 10 points and being able to short at a significant higher level. Now I will keep trading on the short side but probably I will short sale individual stocks and not the index. I will get more bang for the buck.
My oil shorts are a more delicate problem. Oil keeps going up and I am bearish then ever and carrying a big position. Today`s profits in the S&P`s really helped and I might even add a little further to oil but not right away.
This month is beginning to shape up after a lousy first 9 nine days. Profits from the 2 Year Schatz trade, from Natural Gas and from other scalp trades added to today`s profit in the S&P`s are balancing my P&L. If oil reverses I will make a killing.
I need a good night`s sleep.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
That overnight maneuver really paid off, gaining 10 points and being able to short at a significant higher level. Now I will keep trading on the short side but probably I will short sale individual stocks and not the index. I will get more bang for the buck.
My oil shorts are a more delicate problem. Oil keeps going up and I am bearish then ever and carrying a big position. Today`s profits in the S&P`s really helped and I might even add a little further to oil but not right away.
This month is beginning to shape up after a lousy first 9 nine days. Profits from the 2 Year Schatz trade, from Natural Gas and from other scalp trades added to today`s profit in the S&P`s are balancing my P&L. If oil reverses I will make a killing.
I need a good night`s sleep.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
All Of A Sudden Things Are Looking Good. Is This The Real Deal?
The stock market is selling off, losing almost all of its gains. The S&P`s I have sold before the opening bell are almost 10 points in the money. Is this the time to be a crazy bear and bet the ranch short?
The US Dollar is rallying which is good for short positions in stocks and in commodities. Can this day that looked quite dark for my short lines earlier today transform into one of the best trading days of the year?
As Jesse Livermore used to say, "it always pays a man to be right on the right time". I think the time is now.
Words on Oil:
Petronas CEO gave an interesting interview to CNBC. He said among other things, "The recent rise in oil prices has been overdone, the prices don't reflect fundamentals."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
The US Dollar is rallying which is good for short positions in stocks and in commodities. Can this day that looked quite dark for my short lines earlier today transform into one of the best trading days of the year?
As Jesse Livermore used to say, "it always pays a man to be right on the right time". I think the time is now.
Words on Oil:
Petronas CEO gave an interesting interview to CNBC. He said among other things, "The recent rise in oil prices has been overdone, the prices don't reflect fundamentals."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Good Overnight Maneuver. Shorting S&P`s at 951.50.
I am happy that I closed the S&P during the asian session and was able to restore these shorts almost 10 points higher a few minutes ago. I am still bearish, the market is still going higher but I noticed that the bond market is getting nervous again.
Bonds are selling off, 10 year yields are at the highest since Haloween and that may indeed be scary. Higher interest rates as I said before are like termites in the foundation of a house and will kill the recovery in housing and in the economy. Needless to say the stock market will suffer badly.
The million dollar question is, when? I do not see big upside risk from these levels, I think the risk is all on the downside. Watch the 10 year Bond auction at 1 pm ET. It might be a market mover.
This is the toughest market I face in a long, long time. Of course what is difficult for me, has been rather easy for those that are long oil and long the stock market.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Bonds are selling off, 10 year yields are at the highest since Haloween and that may indeed be scary. Higher interest rates as I said before are like termites in the foundation of a house and will kill the recovery in housing and in the economy. Needless to say the stock market will suffer badly.
The million dollar question is, when? I do not see big upside risk from these levels, I think the risk is all on the downside. Watch the 10 year Bond auction at 1 pm ET. It might be a market mover.
This is the toughest market I face in a long, long time. Of course what is difficult for me, has been rather easy for those that are long oil and long the stock market.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Closed My S&P Futures At 942. Asia Rallies For No Reason.
When I saw all asian stock markets rallying for no reason I covered my S&P shorts. Nikkei and Hang Seng up triple digits, Kospi up more then 30 points, I smelled trouble. I can always re-short at higher prices if I want to because I think we will have a strong open in the US.
But when I decide to short stocks again I will short DAX or Eurostoxx instead. I will explain the rationale later.
Getting killed in oil. Up another dollar in pre-market. Quite impressive. I need to focus all my energy in this trade and that is why is have closed my Natural Gas long position. Nat Gas rallied over 3% over my entry point and I have matched that profit for the S&P Futures 2 point loss from yesterday.
Jesse Livermore said that underlying conditions were his main allies. I hope my troops arrive to the war scene fast.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
But when I decide to short stocks again I will short DAX or Eurostoxx instead. I will explain the rationale later.
Getting killed in oil. Up another dollar in pre-market. Quite impressive. I need to focus all my energy in this trade and that is why is have closed my Natural Gas long position. Nat Gas rallied over 3% over my entry point and I have matched that profit for the S&P Futures 2 point loss from yesterday.
Jesse Livermore said that underlying conditions were his main allies. I hope my troops arrive to the war scene fast.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 9, 2009
Added To Oil Shorts At 70. Will I Be Forced To Retreat?
I doubled my short oil position on today`s exhaustion move up. My prices were not top notch, I got 69.30 and 70.00 on added shorts. Now I have a full position on Nymex Oil Futures for the first time in a while. I will have to keep my eyes wide open on this one. If it does not reverse here, in the 70 to 74 area I will have to retreat.
Dollar weakness induced the upmove, but I think there is more to it then the dollar. I just don`t know what. Its not fundamentals, its not demand and I think its not supply. Are trading systems kicking in? Is this a speculative frenzy? I do not know. But if oil is going up for artificial reasons it will go down on very real ones.
The S&P`s barely moved today. I traded a few contracts in and out and made a few good scalp trades. Nothing to write home about.
I have added Natural Gas to my trading portfolio. I bought Natural Gas for a similar amount of the new oil shorts. This could be viewed as a pair trade, "Long NG, Short CL", but I am managing them as two different positions.
On a final note, I would like to open a discussion. While some people like to add to winners, other traders add to losers, taking advantage of more favourable prices. Others open their full line at once.
On the first type of traders I include the lights of Jesse Livermore or Paul Tudor Jones. On the second type I would include Jim Rogers or Warren Buffett. Jesse Livermore and jim Rogers are the most influential on my trading style. I am a contrarian and I like to add to positions at more favourable prices, Jim Rogers style.
Needless to say, tomorrow I will have the biggest equity swing of the year. Maybe I will need to dress my best suit and a drop of the "One Million" parfum. Old timers know what I mean. (I hope that I won`t go home tomorrow listening to REM`s Bad Day, actually my favourite music :) )
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Dollar weakness induced the upmove, but I think there is more to it then the dollar. I just don`t know what. Its not fundamentals, its not demand and I think its not supply. Are trading systems kicking in? Is this a speculative frenzy? I do not know. But if oil is going up for artificial reasons it will go down on very real ones.
The S&P`s barely moved today. I traded a few contracts in and out and made a few good scalp trades. Nothing to write home about.
I have added Natural Gas to my trading portfolio. I bought Natural Gas for a similar amount of the new oil shorts. This could be viewed as a pair trade, "Long NG, Short CL", but I am managing them as two different positions.
On a final note, I would like to open a discussion. While some people like to add to winners, other traders add to losers, taking advantage of more favourable prices. Others open their full line at once.
On the first type of traders I include the lights of Jesse Livermore or Paul Tudor Jones. On the second type I would include Jim Rogers or Warren Buffett. Jesse Livermore and jim Rogers are the most influential on my trading style. I am a contrarian and I like to add to positions at more favourable prices, Jim Rogers style.
Needless to say, tomorrow I will have the biggest equity swing of the year. Maybe I will need to dress my best suit and a drop of the "One Million" parfum. Old timers know what I mean. (I hope that I won`t go home tomorrow listening to REM`s Bad Day, actually my favourite music :) )
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Short S&P`s At 940. Cannot Sit Out Being As Bearish As I Am
Well, as I told you yesterday I closed my shorts. I thought I needed a rest and that I could rest on the sidelines and do some guerrilla trades while being out of structural, medium term positions. But being as bearish as I am I cannot sit out. Not right now. So the first thing I did when I wake up was to turn on my electronic platform and re-short my S&P Futures contracts.
In this business great opportunities do not come often and we must take advantage of them. These opportunities are not always around, maybe 5 to 6 major opportunities each year. Well, I need a rest from market action but I cannot let the market sell off, as I expect to, and sit out, taking a rest. No can do. If I want to rest, I will rest when the market plunges and I will rest sitting on the profits. Maybe I will go to Bora Bora and take a proper rest them. But not now.
I was commenting with Pier Strusi yesterday that the worst thing that can happen to a trader is to lose its position. A short position if the trader is bearish and expecting much lower prices or a bullish position if the trader is bullish on conditions and expecting much higher prices. I cannot afford to lose my short position now, because I do not know if and when I could put them back on time.
So I will sit with these short S&P contracts, do not listen to all the market noise and be patient. The time will come to profit handsomely on them.
I thought that being out of the market would give me peace of mind. I was wrong. My mind is peaceful being short. And short big.
As Alexander Elder wrote in his book, "Beginners focus on analysis, but professionals operate in a three dimensional space. They are aware of trading psychology their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets." I read myself and I had to short again.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
In this business great opportunities do not come often and we must take advantage of them. These opportunities are not always around, maybe 5 to 6 major opportunities each year. Well, I need a rest from market action but I cannot let the market sell off, as I expect to, and sit out, taking a rest. No can do. If I want to rest, I will rest when the market plunges and I will rest sitting on the profits. Maybe I will go to Bora Bora and take a proper rest them. But not now.
I was commenting with Pier Strusi yesterday that the worst thing that can happen to a trader is to lose its position. A short position if the trader is bearish and expecting much lower prices or a bullish position if the trader is bullish on conditions and expecting much higher prices. I cannot afford to lose my short position now, because I do not know if and when I could put them back on time.
So I will sit with these short S&P contracts, do not listen to all the market noise and be patient. The time will come to profit handsomely on them.
I thought that being out of the market would give me peace of mind. I was wrong. My mind is peaceful being short. And short big.
As Alexander Elder wrote in his book, "Beginners focus on analysis, but professionals operate in a three dimensional space. They are aware of trading psychology their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets." I read myself and I had to short again.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 8, 2009
Texas Instruments Is Guiding Higher in After Hours
Texas Instruments is guiding earnings higher in the after hours session. The stock is up 5%.
It will be a good stock to nimble on the long side on some guerrilla trades tomorrow. Other semiconductor stocks may also be good candidates. Money will be flowing into these shares tomorrow. Get ready. Don`t let them beat you.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
It will be a good stock to nimble on the long side on some guerrilla trades tomorrow. Other semiconductor stocks may also be good candidates. Money will be flowing into these shares tomorrow. Get ready. Don`t let them beat you.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Closed My S&P Futures. Back To Guerrilla Trading.
I took advantage of the market weakness today and closed my short S&P position. I lost a few points on that position but I was needing a market rest. You know what I mean. After being short for a few weeks and being able to close almost even after being off the money most of the time is quite relaxing.
I will take it on the light side for a while. I still have a short crude oil position but that cannot hurt me very much even if oil spikes higher to 80 USD a barrel as Dennis Gartman suggested today.
I will make some intraday guerrilla trades but I will not wake up in the morning in a hurry to turn Bloomberg TV Channel on and see how the futures are printing. After being in a trade for a long time there is nothing better then watching the action on the sidelines and participating only when I feel that money is lying on the corner and all I need to do is to go over there and pick it up.
I never like to lose in any position especially when I think I am right. But I had some profits from the short 2 Year Schatz Futures play on the ECB Meeting day and those gains almost level out with the S&P Futures losses. I am still holding a small short oil position but while i wait for an opportunity to close it, I am being paid the contango.
I felt like I needed a clean sheet to trade again at my very best. I feel good.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
I will take it on the light side for a while. I still have a short crude oil position but that cannot hurt me very much even if oil spikes higher to 80 USD a barrel as Dennis Gartman suggested today.
I will make some intraday guerrilla trades but I will not wake up in the morning in a hurry to turn Bloomberg TV Channel on and see how the futures are printing. After being in a trade for a long time there is nothing better then watching the action on the sidelines and participating only when I feel that money is lying on the corner and all I need to do is to go over there and pick it up.
I never like to lose in any position especially when I think I am right. But I had some profits from the short 2 Year Schatz Futures play on the ECB Meeting day and those gains almost level out with the S&P Futures losses. I am still holding a small short oil position but while i wait for an opportunity to close it, I am being paid the contango.
I felt like I needed a clean sheet to trade again at my very best. I feel good.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
S&P Futures Selling Off. Cash Coming In.
S&P Futures really selling off. Good for my Red Ship.
Dennis Gartman commented on oil earlier on on CNBC. He is quite bearish, here are his comments, "I am bearish on oil for the first time in a while", "egregious levels of inventory also will pressure oil prices lower and they probably will settle in the $60 range, though there could be a short-lived spike to $80."
"I guess you could get crude back to $55 to $60 a barrel — $55 probably cuts off exploration, $80 probably brings into consideration a continued decline in usage, a curtailment on the part of U.S. consumers for driving,"
If the US Dollar can keep its recent strength I think the spike is out of the question.
Bespoke Investment Group also has a very good article about the relationship between Oil and Natural Gas:
"With oil nearing 70 and natural gas below four, the current ratio between the two commodities is now over 18. Following prior periods when the ratio went above 18, while natural gas hasn’t always rallied, it has always outperformed oil. Additionally, as we near the end of the second quarter, natural gas is entering what has historically been its best quarter of the year. As shown in the chart below, the commodity's average return (using the front month futures contract) during the third quarter of the year has been 12.95% with positive returns 63% of the time."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Dennis Gartman commented on oil earlier on on CNBC. He is quite bearish, here are his comments, "I am bearish on oil for the first time in a while", "egregious levels of inventory also will pressure oil prices lower and they probably will settle in the $60 range, though there could be a short-lived spike to $80."
"I guess you could get crude back to $55 to $60 a barrel — $55 probably cuts off exploration, $80 probably brings into consideration a continued decline in usage, a curtailment on the part of U.S. consumers for driving,"
If the US Dollar can keep its recent strength I think the spike is out of the question.
Bespoke Investment Group also has a very good article about the relationship between Oil and Natural Gas:
"With oil nearing 70 and natural gas below four, the current ratio between the two commodities is now over 18. Following prior periods when the ratio went above 18, while natural gas hasn’t always rallied, it has always outperformed oil. Additionally, as we near the end of the second quarter, natural gas is entering what has historically been its best quarter of the year. As shown in the chart below, the commodity's average return (using the front month futures contract) during the third quarter of the year has been 12.95% with positive returns 63% of the time."
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Short S&P`s And Oil. Markets Are Red.
It seems like the termites are really beginning to pull some parts of the house down if not all. I have written here that rising long term interest rates at a fast pace and the consequent sell off in US bonds would kill any economic recovery and off course any stock market rally. But perceptions and old habits die hard and there are still many fund managers chasing this market because they have failed the rally and are underperforming.
Off course these managers will only compound their mistakes because they missed the rally, thwy will buy near the top and then participate fully on the next downleg, which will be severe and lasting, losing money holding to expensive stocks.
So I feel as confortable as I have felt holding my S&P and Crude Oil Futures positions. Patience pays and I never feel impatient when I know I am right. The sudden dollar strength is helping a lot short oil positions. Read my post on oil written yesterday.
During the weekend I have posted an article about all the the best trading books and the worst trading books that I have read. I have rated them from 1 (pure garbage) to 10 (must have). Read it here and add any trading books that are missing in the list or that you think I have misrated.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Off course these managers will only compound their mistakes because they missed the rally, thwy will buy near the top and then participate fully on the next downleg, which will be severe and lasting, losing money holding to expensive stocks.
So I feel as confortable as I have felt holding my S&P and Crude Oil Futures positions. Patience pays and I never feel impatient when I know I am right. The sudden dollar strength is helping a lot short oil positions. Read my post on oil written yesterday.
During the weekend I have posted an article about all the the best trading books and the worst trading books that I have read. I have rated them from 1 (pure garbage) to 10 (must have). Read it here and add any trading books that are missing in the list or that you think I have misrated.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 7, 2009
Dollar Rallied Strongly. Oil Barely Moved.
While the US dollar rallied strongly on Friday following the positive EMPLOYMENT REPORT surprise, oil barely moved. I think that most of the recent oil rally was related to the dollar weakness and I was expecting a more emphatic down move on the oil futures. It did not happen. Sometimes this reactions happen with a delay and I will watch the oil futures for a significant correction early next week.
I recall a conversation between Jesse Livermore (who was short the market) and his friend (who was long stocks) after the San Francisco earthquake and the resilience of the stock market to move down decisively, "The tape doesn`t lie, does it?" said his friend, to whom JL replied, "It doesn`t always tell the truth on the instant".
I think this is a fantastic analogy to what is happening on the oil market.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
I recall a conversation between Jesse Livermore (who was short the market) and his friend (who was long stocks) after the San Francisco earthquake and the resilience of the stock market to move down decisively, "The tape doesn`t lie, does it?" said his friend, to whom JL replied, "It doesn`t always tell the truth on the instant".
I think this is a fantastic analogy to what is happening on the oil market.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 6, 2009
Which Trading Books Are Worth Their Cover Price
I have read and bought dozens of trading and investment books through out the years. Some are very good and some are nothing but pure garbage. I have many visitors and members asking me about trading books so I have decided to post about the ones I think are a must have, and should be read and re-read.
So let`s go. Its a long list and I will rank them from 1 (pure garbage) to 10 (a book to read and re-read):
Reminiscences of A Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefevre: 10, the best book ever written about speculation;
Pit Bull, by Marty Schwartz, 7, a good book about a sucessful S&P Futures daytrader;
How I Made 2,000,000 In The Stock Market, by Nicolas Darvas, 8, very good reading for a book that was written over 30 years ago; its an investment biography from a Wall Street outsider;
Market Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 10, a short cut to trading mastery; fantastic interviews wuth the best traders of the 80`s and early 90`s; a must have to read once a year; Ed Seykota`s and Richard Dennis`s interviews are probably the best; Gary Bielfeldt interview is my favourite because it underlines a very important message: we only need one well timed and well sized trade to get wildly rich;
The New Markets Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 9, a good book but not so good as the original; still a must have in every trader`s bookshelf; Linda Raschke interview is probably my favourite;
Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom, by Van Tharp, 8, a good trading book about trading systems and the psychology of trading; very good;
Investment Biker, by Jim Rogers, 8, a good travel book, a good investment book and a good economics book written by a legendary investor;
A Bull In China, by Jim Rogers, 2, one big flop; I am not even sure that this book has been written by Jim Rogers;
Inside The House Of Money, by Drobny, 6, an interesting set of interviews with some top traders;
Trading In The Zone, by Ari Kiev, 3, I think Ari Kiev is very overated; I would not wate my time again reading Kiev`s book;
Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading, by Van Tharp, 3, while Tharp`s first book is a very good one, I am not very impressed with this second work;
Trading Markets - Guide For Conquering The Markets, 2, a compilation of some texts from Dave Landry, Larry Connors, Mark Boucher and many others;
Wall Street - The Other Las Vegas, Nicolas Darvas, 5, very similar to his earlier book; nothing really new;
Bill Gross On Investing, Bill Gross, 4, I would expect a much better book from a legendary fund manager; some interesting topics on bonds but not as good as it could be;
Mastering Trading Stress, Ari Kiev, 1, no comments, pure garbage;
Adventure Capitalist, by Jim Rogers, 7, one of Jim`s best books; similar to the Investment Biker but this time Jim goes around the world in a Mercedes SLK;
Hot Commodities, by Jim Rogers, 7, the best book on commodities;
Alchemy Of Finance, George Soros, 4, I have not finished this book; I do not like Soros`s writing style; pretty dense and boring;
How To Make Money In Stocks, William O`Neill, 6, very good for stock pickers;
Dave Landry On Swing Trading, by Dave Landry, 7, an interesting book for swing traders and technical players; lots of setups and real world examples; from trader to trader; besides Dave Landry helped me a lot when I was starting my trading career 10 years ago, answering all email questions; he has even offered me a signed book;
Stock Market Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 5, not so good as the first two; Mark Cook interview is very good and probably is worth the cover price by itself;
The Psychology Of Risk, Ari Kiev, 2, as I said before I do not like Kiev`s books;
A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel, 3, the anti-trader book; if you are a trader you will hate this book;
Fooled By Randomness, Nassim Taleb, 8, a brilliant book from a brilliant mind;
The Education Of a Speculator, Victor Niederhoffer, 1, I think nobody can finish this book; dense and confusing;
How To trade In Stocks, Jesse Livermore, 7, not as good as Reminiscences, but a must have book for seasoned and aspiring traders;
Against the Gods - The Remarkable Story of Risk, by Bernstein, 4, well written but pretty boring;
Secrets For profiting In Bull and Bear Markets, Stan Weinstein, I have bought it in Malaysia last year and I have not read it yet;
Technical Analysis Explained, by Martin Pring, 5, while it is not a top book on technical analysis has some very good chapters on trading cycles and sazonalities;
Schwager on Futures - Technical Analysis, by jack Schwager, 6, probably the best Technical Analysis book I have ever read; but I am not a technical trader;
Trader Vic, by Victor Spearandeo, 5, good trading biography; not as good as the ones I mentioned above;
Way Of A Turtle, by Faith, 7, the true story of Richard Dennis`s turtles experiment; very good for systematic traders;
Stock For The Long Run, by Jeremy Siegel, 7, a good book written by an economics PhD. Lots of historical perspective on the performance of stocks, bonds and commodities;
So this is the full list of the best and the worst trading books I came across over the years. Very few really stand out.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
So let`s go. Its a long list and I will rank them from 1 (pure garbage) to 10 (a book to read and re-read):
Reminiscences of A Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefevre: 10, the best book ever written about speculation;
Pit Bull, by Marty Schwartz, 7, a good book about a sucessful S&P Futures daytrader;
How I Made 2,000,000 In The Stock Market, by Nicolas Darvas, 8, very good reading for a book that was written over 30 years ago; its an investment biography from a Wall Street outsider;
Market Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 10, a short cut to trading mastery; fantastic interviews wuth the best traders of the 80`s and early 90`s; a must have to read once a year; Ed Seykota`s and Richard Dennis`s interviews are probably the best; Gary Bielfeldt interview is my favourite because it underlines a very important message: we only need one well timed and well sized trade to get wildly rich;
The New Markets Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 9, a good book but not so good as the original; still a must have in every trader`s bookshelf; Linda Raschke interview is probably my favourite;
Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom, by Van Tharp, 8, a good trading book about trading systems and the psychology of trading; very good;
Investment Biker, by Jim Rogers, 8, a good travel book, a good investment book and a good economics book written by a legendary investor;
A Bull In China, by Jim Rogers, 2, one big flop; I am not even sure that this book has been written by Jim Rogers;
Inside The House Of Money, by Drobny, 6, an interesting set of interviews with some top traders;
Trading In The Zone, by Ari Kiev, 3, I think Ari Kiev is very overated; I would not wate my time again reading Kiev`s book;
Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading, by Van Tharp, 3, while Tharp`s first book is a very good one, I am not very impressed with this second work;
Trading Markets - Guide For Conquering The Markets, 2, a compilation of some texts from Dave Landry, Larry Connors, Mark Boucher and many others;
Wall Street - The Other Las Vegas, Nicolas Darvas, 5, very similar to his earlier book; nothing really new;
Bill Gross On Investing, Bill Gross, 4, I would expect a much better book from a legendary fund manager; some interesting topics on bonds but not as good as it could be;
Mastering Trading Stress, Ari Kiev, 1, no comments, pure garbage;
Adventure Capitalist, by Jim Rogers, 7, one of Jim`s best books; similar to the Investment Biker but this time Jim goes around the world in a Mercedes SLK;
Hot Commodities, by Jim Rogers, 7, the best book on commodities;
Alchemy Of Finance, George Soros, 4, I have not finished this book; I do not like Soros`s writing style; pretty dense and boring;
How To Make Money In Stocks, William O`Neill, 6, very good for stock pickers;
Dave Landry On Swing Trading, by Dave Landry, 7, an interesting book for swing traders and technical players; lots of setups and real world examples; from trader to trader; besides Dave Landry helped me a lot when I was starting my trading career 10 years ago, answering all email questions; he has even offered me a signed book;
Stock Market Wizards, by Jack Schwager, 5, not so good as the first two; Mark Cook interview is very good and probably is worth the cover price by itself;
The Psychology Of Risk, Ari Kiev, 2, as I said before I do not like Kiev`s books;
A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel, 3, the anti-trader book; if you are a trader you will hate this book;
Fooled By Randomness, Nassim Taleb, 8, a brilliant book from a brilliant mind;
The Education Of a Speculator, Victor Niederhoffer, 1, I think nobody can finish this book; dense and confusing;
How To trade In Stocks, Jesse Livermore, 7, not as good as Reminiscences, but a must have book for seasoned and aspiring traders;
Against the Gods - The Remarkable Story of Risk, by Bernstein, 4, well written but pretty boring;
Secrets For profiting In Bull and Bear Markets, Stan Weinstein, I have bought it in Malaysia last year and I have not read it yet;
Technical Analysis Explained, by Martin Pring, 5, while it is not a top book on technical analysis has some very good chapters on trading cycles and sazonalities;
Schwager on Futures - Technical Analysis, by jack Schwager, 6, probably the best Technical Analysis book I have ever read; but I am not a technical trader;
Trader Vic, by Victor Spearandeo, 5, good trading biography; not as good as the ones I mentioned above;
Way Of A Turtle, by Faith, 7, the true story of Richard Dennis`s turtles experiment; very good for systematic traders;
Stock For The Long Run, by Jeremy Siegel, 7, a good book written by an economics PhD. Lots of historical perspective on the performance of stocks, bonds and commodities;
So this is the full list of the best and the worst trading books I came across over the years. Very few really stand out.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 5, 2009
Surprising Job Data. Still Short But Keeping My Eyes Open.
Huge surprise on the Employment Report with the Non Farm Payrolls coming out at 345,000, much better then the 525,000 expected. Bonds sold off immediately and stocks rose sharply in pre-market before reversing.
The US Dollar rose sharply, almost 200 ticks against the Euro Currency. All this data and consequent market movements are not easy to analyse. I am surprised with the data because I thought the economy was a lot weaker then what it seems to be. That was the rationale for my shorting. But the analysis now is even more difficult. Because if the economy is getting stronger then people expect, short and long term interest rates will go up even further and faster and that can kill any recovery. Besides, the FED may have to withdraw all this excess liquidity faster then we thought.
So, all said and done I am keeping my short positions in Oil and in the S&P Futures but I am keeping my eyes wide open for clues of any sudden reversal of fortunes. I think we will have plenty of crazy days ahead with record volatility.
I am expecting a big drop in oil if the dollar can keep its strength. Recently oil rallied over 12 dollars and in my view maybe 7 of them were dollar weakness related. Oil looks toppy to me. I am not so sure about the stock market but I am keeping my shorts for now. Let`s see how this plays out.
I will leave with one of my favourite stock market quotes, "you don`t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows". I think it will be a lot tougher to know from where the wind will blow in the next few weeks, but expect some tornado strength.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
The US Dollar rose sharply, almost 200 ticks against the Euro Currency. All this data and consequent market movements are not easy to analyse. I am surprised with the data because I thought the economy was a lot weaker then what it seems to be. That was the rationale for my shorting. But the analysis now is even more difficult. Because if the economy is getting stronger then people expect, short and long term interest rates will go up even further and faster and that can kill any recovery. Besides, the FED may have to withdraw all this excess liquidity faster then we thought.
So, all said and done I am keeping my short positions in Oil and in the S&P Futures but I am keeping my eyes wide open for clues of any sudden reversal of fortunes. I think we will have plenty of crazy days ahead with record volatility.
I am expecting a big drop in oil if the dollar can keep its strength. Recently oil rallied over 12 dollars and in my view maybe 7 of them were dollar weakness related. Oil looks toppy to me. I am not so sure about the stock market but I am keeping my shorts for now. Let`s see how this plays out.
I will leave with one of my favourite stock market quotes, "you don`t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows". I think it will be a lot tougher to know from where the wind will blow in the next few weeks, but expect some tornado strength.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Jun 4, 2009
A Top In Oil Is Nearby. Termites Will Destroy The House.
Tough trading day today with oil spiking higher and the S&P Futures moving up a few points.
Oil eased a bit going into the close and Goldman Sachs ultra bullish call on oil going to 85 dollars a barrel will probably signal that a top in oil is nearby. I will be patient on this trade taking advantage of the contango interest on the short side of the oil market.
Long term interest rates keep creeping up as long term treasuries keep selling off agressively. Rising long term interest rates is like having termites in the foundation of a house. You don`t see them but they will bring the house down. Short positions will succeed sooner rather then later.
As Eli Tullis, a legendary cotton speculator, told Paul Tudor Jones when he was learning how to trade, "the best time to short the market is when it looks at his best". Ditto.
I am glad I read the ECB press conference well enough as I profited big time in the short 2 Year Bund Futures position. It has definitely smoothed the P&L today. Tomorrow the Employment Report will come out and we can expect a pretty volatile trading session. I urge you to wear your helmet and to fasten your seatbelt. We are set for a bumpy ride.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
Oil eased a bit going into the close and Goldman Sachs ultra bullish call on oil going to 85 dollars a barrel will probably signal that a top in oil is nearby. I will be patient on this trade taking advantage of the contango interest on the short side of the oil market.
Long term interest rates keep creeping up as long term treasuries keep selling off agressively. Rising long term interest rates is like having termites in the foundation of a house. You don`t see them but they will bring the house down. Short positions will succeed sooner rather then later.
As Eli Tullis, a legendary cotton speculator, told Paul Tudor Jones when he was learning how to trade, "the best time to short the market is when it looks at his best". Ditto.
I am glad I read the ECB press conference well enough as I profited big time in the short 2 Year Bund Futures position. It has definitely smoothed the P&L today. Tomorrow the Employment Report will come out and we can expect a pretty volatile trading session. I urge you to wear your helmet and to fasten your seatbelt. We are set for a bumpy ride.
Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage. Trading is not as hard as some think and definitely not as easy as some wanted it to be.
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