Is Alan Greenspan Shorting The Stock Market?

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees the U.S. economy slowing next year as the surge in stocks comes to an end. “The odds are that we flatten out, even though earnings are doing very well,” Greenspan said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, referring to the equity market. That flattening out will probably “put some sort of dull face” on the economy in 2010, he added.

The former Fed chief said he sees little threat of higher inflation now, even as the economy recovers. In the longer run, inflation will pick up unless the Fed withdraws the stimulus it has pumped into the economy, he said, voicing concern it may come under political pressure to refrain from doing so.

“We are still by any measure in a disinflationary environment,” said Greenspan, 83. “Unless we sterilize or unwind the big monetary base we’ve built up, two, three years out inflation really begins to take hold.”

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Oil Surpasses 70. What Was The Driver?

Crude oil futures surged through 70 dollars a barrel after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected decline in gasoline supplies. Gasoline inventories fell 1.66 million barrels to 211.5 million in the week ended September 25, the Energy Department said today in a weekly report. Stockpiles were forecast to increase by 1 million barrels, according to the median of analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

"Gasoline had been pummeled in the past few weeks, price- wise," said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. "This provides some price relief, and gasoline is pulling crude higher. Gasoline seems to be the driver today."

Crude oil for November delivery rose 3.85 dollars, or 5.8%, to close at 70.56 dollars a barrel on Nymex. Futures hit an intraday high of 70.72, the highest since September 23. Oil traded at 66.44 dollars a barrel before the release of the inventory report.

Crude oil gained 1% this quarter, a third consecutive quarterly gain.

Commodities like Silver and Gold also surged today on what was seen as an "inflation fear trade". But the real data that hit the wires today was the less then exhuberant Chicago PMI that came at "recession level", 46.1. The month of October will start with nothing short of 8 important economic data points: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Construction Spending, ISM Index, Pending Home Sales, Auto Sales and Truck Sales. So, probably the volatility is here to stay.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Tell Me Where The Dollar Is Going And I Will Own The World In A Month.

The way the dollar will trade in the next few weeks, months will be the key to what to do in the stock market and on commodities. The US Dollar has been beaten up in price and "in words" and some question if it will remain the reserve currency of the world.

But I think the US Dollar is still "King" as it determines the prices moves of stocks, commodities and bonds worldwide. It may very well be a moribund King but it still rules. I think we can even say that the dollar is more important for the world now then ever before.

I will leave with a link for my favourite Rapper. T.I. myspace plays almost everyday on my trading session. My favourite is "We Were".

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Home Prices On The Rise Again. What`s The Biggest Risk Now For The Economy?

The plunge in home prices was the trigger of the financial crisis. Now home prices seem to be on the rise again, according to S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. Now the biggest threat to the economy is the high unemployment rate and the ticking time bomb on inflation and its impact on US bonds:

"Home values in 20 U.S. cities climbed in July by the most in almost four years, helping stem the record plunge in household wealth that’s depressed spending. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index rose 1.2 percent in July from the prior month, the biggest gain since October 2005."

I am still short S&P Futures from 1057, having placed my stop at 1070. I agree with Marc Faber that we may have seen the peak on the stock market for 2009. Even though we will have a pleuthora of economic reports this week and a final spike in the S&P futures cannot be ruled out. I also closed my tiny position on Hecla Mining (HL) on today`s strength for a small profit and I will keep buying it on retracements. I expect Hecla Mining and Novagold (NG) to go up several fold over the course of the next year as inflation picks up.

I found this very interesting article about the possibility of a major US Dollar rally on Zero Hedge. Its a very interesting view and I love this part, "Germany and Austria have recently issued debt that is USD denominated, and they were soon immitated by... Venezuela. That to me is a sign the short-USD trade is ripe for a reversal, when basically even the biggest idiot in the house is short".

Oil Trader`s Blog is a trading community for active online futures and stock traders. We provide our real time trading decisions and our market analysis on this website.

Who`s Right? Bill Gross Or Julian Robertson?

Bill Gross said today that he is worried about deflation and that he is buying US long term government bonds:

"Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said he’s been buying longer maturity Treasuries in recent weeks amid a re-emergence of deflation concern."

That`s kind of funny because he has the exact opposite view on this matter of other heavy weights like Julian Robertson (read here), Warren Buffett or Dr. Marc Faber. The deflation, inflation debate is the million dollar question. Who gets it right will make the right bets on the US Dollar, commodities and commosoty related stocks.

I am in the inflation camp even if the dollar rises in the short term forcing a big correction in asset markets, specially in commodities. That will be the time to pile into silver and gold related names or commodity futures like silver, gold, copper or some agriculture futures like soybeans, corn or wheat that are historically still very cheap.

I have a very small bet on Hecla Mining (HL) and on Novagold (NG). Those are initial exploratory bets to make myself watch them day by day. By I plan to make a big bet on those names on a correction that is probably unfolding. I am pretty sure that will be my next home run.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Oil To Natural Gas Ratio And Gold To Platinum Ratio.

The Bespoke Investment Group posted in their website an interesting article about the Oil to Natural Gas Ratio and also the Gold to Platinum ratio:

"With oil's decline and natural gas' rise over the past few weeks, the ratio of oil to natural gas has declined quite a bit. As shown below, the oil/natural gas ratio hit a 20-year high recently as natural gas collapsed. The ratio is still very high compared to historical levels, but it is down from 27 to 17 since the start of the month.

The platinum to gold ratio has also begun to reverse the downtrend it had been in since early 2008. At the end of 2008, gold actually traded above the price of platinum, bringing the ratio below 1 for the first time in years. With the economy getting back on track, platinum has outperformed gold, and the ratio is back up to 1.28. This is still, however, far below the range that the ratio was trading in throughout most of this decade."

in Bespoke Investment Group Website

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Byron Wien Sees The S&P At 1,200 By Year End

The Wall Street veteran, Byron Wien sees the S&P at 1,200 by the end of the year:

"The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is poised for its biggest fourth-quarter rally in a decade as the economy recovers and earnings exceed analysts’ forecasts, according to Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Group LP. The benchmark gauge for U.S. stocks will rise to 1,200 by the end of the year, a 13 percent advance from today’s close of 1,062.96, Wien said in a telephone interview. The forecast is a reiteration of Wien’s prediction at the start of 2009 that the S&P 500 would climb 33 percent this year.

Combined earnings for S&P 500 companies will exceed $60 a share this year and $75 a share in 2010, Wien said. He’s more bullish than average of strategists surveyed by Bloomberg, which forecast S&P 500 earnings of $56.33 a share in 2009 and $69.44 next year.

Wien was hired by Blackstone, the world’s biggest private equity firm, last month to advise the company and its clients on the economy and politics. Before Pequot, he was senior market strategist at Morgan Stanley. Pequot said in May it would shut down because of a federal insider-trading investigation."

I was stopped on my S&P short sale this morning at 1045, a very well placed stopped. The risk reward was looking good last night but it didn`t work out. Even though it was a good trading move. My stocks and my USD/JPY did rather well, specially Hecla Mining (HL) and Sunoco (SUN). It was a so-so trading day. Better opportunities will arise sooner rather then later. Patience is the name of the game.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Selling Some Futures At 1040. Asian Stock Markets Weakness May Carry Over To Europe, US

I am selling some futures on Globex at 1040 with a tight stop. If asian stock market weakness carries over to Europe and then to the US markets I can make a 7 to 10 point profit while I am risking about 5 points in the overall position with several stop prices around that area.

Nikkei is selling off responding to the yen strength and general market tone. I want to buy it for the long term and I have been waiting for a more favourable entry point. The July lows around 9200 would be perfect, but I considering buying from 9500 downwards.

I told you recently that I am a big fan of Belgian Beer. My favourite brands are Chimay, Judas and Duvel. They taste rather well after a rough trading day at the desk.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

German Elections Impact On Bunds And On The Economy

The results of the German elections dictate that Merkel will stay in power. That is pro-economic growth and pro-inflation:

The result makes it more likely that Merkel will push tax cuts that the Social Democrats, her partner the past four years, said were unaffordable. Merkel promised 15 billion euros ($22 billion) of tax cuts, while the FDP proposed deeper reductions.

“It is positive for the euro and slightly negative for bunds because the Free Democrats are more economically friendly in their policies,” said Glenn Marci, a fixed-income strategist in Frankfurt at DZ Bank AG, Germany’s biggest cooperative lender. “The chances of turning a corner for the German economy are higher.”

in Bloomberg.com

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Marc Faber Sees The S&P Between 800 and 1,250 In The Next Year. Big Volatile Swings To Be Expected.

Marc Faber was on Bloomberg TV on Friday and gave his stock market outlook for the next year:

"I think one year from now the S&P will have travelled through a lot of volatility. Maybe we will go up first to 1,250 and then down again to 800. Maybe we will go down to 800 and then to 1,250 or whatever it is."

It would be very important to know which will come first...800 or 1,250?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Goldman Sachs Upgrades Refiners: SUN, HOC And FTO

The investment powerhouse upgraded the sector citing that the refining cycle is moving through its trough:

While most energy companies were in the red again Friday, refiners were handily bucking that trend, making gains after Goldman Sachs raised its view on the sector.

Goldman's view on refiners is now at neutral, up from cautious, as the analysts said they increasingly believe the refining cycle is moving through its trough. This view is more optimistic than many observers' outlook for the sector.

"We believe we are now on track for oil demand growth to outpace refining capacity growth in 2010, in sharp contrast to what we believe has become the consensus Street view," Goldman wrote.

Despite a recent bounce in refining stocks, Goldman doesn't think the valuations look particularly expensive.

Goldman boosted its rating on Holly Corp. (HOC) to buy from neutral. Among the reasons cited, Goldman said Holly's niche crude and product market exposure has historically yielded superior margins and returns.

The upgrade helped Holly lead the gains among refiners, with the stock recently up 6.9% to $24.88.

The Goldman note also included an upgrade on Sunoco Inc. (SUN), which the analysts raised to neutral from sell. Goldman said that while Sunoco still faces challenges given its "relatively simple" East Coast asset base, the stock's risk/reward is no longer particularly unfavorable relative to its peers. Sunoco recently was up 3.2% to $27.54.

Also gaining was Frontier Oil Corp. (FTO), which rose 5.1% to $13.97 as the Goldman analysts noted the stock is still one of their preferences in the sector. Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) gained 2.9% to $19.47, even as the Goldman analysts said the company appears to be the most challenged of the refiners the firm covers.


Regarding my trading, I closed my Dax Futures shorts by the close being able to lose only a small amount after being down almost 300 points on the first tranche of my transaction. I was inspired and sharp yesterday and I traded in and out of the position to solve what was becoming a rather difficult situation for me.

I also bought some Sunoco (SUN) shares as I was looking for some catalyst for a rise. I had written about Sunoco a few days ago, "Are Sunoco And Hess Worth Of Our Dollars?" and I had them on my radar screen. While I am still bearish on the overall market i think the refiners and some Natural Gas related names can trade against the indexes. I also added Hecla Mining (HL) and NovaGold (NG) to my portfolio. These are two of my favourite stocks that I bought at the March lows and rode them higher till mid April. By the way, I am still holding Delta Petroleum (DPTR) and I am expecting it to double in price till the end of the year. Delta Petroleum will greatly benefit from the recent rise in Natural Gas prices and will trend higher to much, much higher prices.

I do not know if I will add to my shorts again next week, because I am not sure about the future course of the indexes. I will leave you with a live performance from of the greatest bands of all time.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Julian Robertson Sees Inflation Ahead

The veteran trader Julian Robertson was on CNBC earlier today and said that “If the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent”.

The US is too dependent on Japan and China buying up the country's debt and could face severe economic problems if that stops, Tiger Management founder and chairman Julian Robertson told CNBC.

"It's almost Armageddon if the Japanese and Chinese don't buy our debt,” Robertson said in an interview. "I don't know where we could get the money. I think we've let ourselves get in a terrible situation and I think we ought to try and get out of it."

Robertson said inflation is a big risk if foreign countries were to stop buying bonds.

“If the Chinese and Japanese stop buying our bonds, we could easily see [inflation] go to 15 to 20 percent,” he said. “It's not a question of the economy. It's a question of who will lend us the money if they don't. Imagine us getting ourselves in a situation where we're totally dependent on those two countries. It's crazy.”

in CNBC

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

So Far So Good. My Red Ship Is Sailing Nicely.

I am inspired and sharp today. I came in with a big Dax Futures short position and I was able to trade it around nicely during the morning. Then I took advantage of the morning rebound and sold again agressively.

Markets are making new lows for the move and my trading positions are doing fine, except for Delta Petroleum that is getting hammered again. No big deal. This will be a day to remember if markets keep moving lower as they are now.

I have to thank uncle Ben for removing those FED programs just before the market opened. My vessels really caught that wind blowing.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Marc Faber Has Some Interesting Stock Picks

Check out this Marc Faber video interview to the Tech Ticker on Yahoo Finance. He picks Novagold, Newmont Mining, Pfizer and Chesapeake Energy as the best plays on the US stock market.

"Faber is most bullish on mining and energy companies. He recommends:

Newmont Mining and FreeportMcMoran as relative inexpensive. He also mentions Nova Gold, as another, more speculative buy. In a contrarian call, on natural gas, he says Chesapeake Energy will be a winner when prices eventually rebound. Oil giant Exxon Mobil is another stock he thinks offer good value.

Outside of that, Faber says buying large-cap pharmaceuticals like Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson offer good defensive options.

Finally, he suggests U.S. airlines are poised for a rebound. If that happens, international airlines will follow and Thai Airways stock could double."

in TECH TICKER

Faber always has some nice investment/trading ideas. He is my favourite market analyst/investor.

PS: Today is a very important trading session; I am putting out my short on the DAX Futures again after this morning rebound, but I will have to focus on trading completely today; I will check back at the end of the session.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Markets Should Be Trading Lower. Playing Some Defense.

I was expecting a sell off overnight in Asia and a very bearish trading session in Europe. It did not happen so I closed my shorts on the Dax Futures (all of them including the ones I sold yesterday) taking a loss on the total position (but doing very well on those contracts added yesterday). I will play for position and waiting for another trading opportunity on the Dax Futures.

I am keeping my shorts on the banking shares, JPMorgan Chase, Bank Of America and Wells Fargo and I will decide what to do with those when the markets opens. I have a little profit cushion on those so I can pay to wait a bit and see how the Wall Street mood is today.

At least I was able to greatly reduce my trading loss on the Dax Futures. But I was expecting much better then that. Anyway, the market is getting volatile again and opportunities will be plentiful.

I opened The New Markets Wizards book randomly and I found this interesting quote from Robert Krauz: When asked, "What are the key characteristics of a winning trader?", he replied, "Persistence, patience, and a willingness to take risks".

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Well, Well, Well. Getting Back To My Trading Form.

Markets reversed after the Fed annoucement and I added to my shorts as I antecipated that markets were deeply overbought and could sell off big time. I doubled my short Dax Futures, and I shorted Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) plus some Newmont Mining (NEM) shares.

I pushed my luck for all that is worth and I will have a big, big day tomorrow if the markets follow through on the downside tomorrow. I was so angry yesterday that I should of known that a good day was coming.

I will relax a bit because tomorrow will be quite a day. I have a good feeling for tomorrow as my shorts already have a profit cushion. I will listen to Arcade Fire, one of my favourite bands to charge up my batteries for tomorrow. Of course tomorrow I will dress to the occasion. Hugo Boss tie, Armani suit and the essential One Million parfum.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Tough Day At The Trading Desk. Again.

I feel like I need a trading pause. My trading positions have been trading against me almost every day spanning from the short Dax Futures to the long 3 Month Euribor rates and Delta Petroleum stocks.

Today I left a few more euros at the Eurex exchange and some more at Liffe. And I shall not forget the sell off on Delta Petroleum even though that position is too small to hurt my daily P&L. I never bet big on stocks. They are far too unpredictable.

Probably it would be better for me to admit that I am short and wrong and that I should pause my trading and get a breather. But if for some reason I close my position I will immediately sense that this is the shorting opportunity of a lifetime, specially in the Euro Zone. Making things simple, markets are overbought, euro zone exporters are getting killed with the "soft and getting softer" US Dollar and the moribund economy. Markets will eventually sell off with or without me.

So I am staying short, patiently waiting for the reversal. Notice that I am only short from 5450 and 5700 and still its hurting badly due to my overextended position. As it always happens, the reversal will be sudden and sharp. The Dax will sell off 100 to 200 points a day. Will I be able to hang on?

As you know I am a big REM fan. When I get home I will listen "Bad Day" over and over again. Things have not been easy for me lately. I feel like a tennis player that is always half a second late to the ball. That has happened to be before and I came back strongly. But its always painful to be wrong footed, specially in a raging bull market based on money printing and hope-aa-mentals.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Options Activity Show Downside Risks In Oil

Oil traders are paying more than ever in the options market to protect against a plunge in crude prices.

The gap between prices of options betting on a decline and those that would profit from a rise in oil widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. Its seems that the smart institutional money is protecting against a major fall in oil prices. Oil futures have been rather weak in the last few days and Philip Verleger, a professor at the University of Calgary and head of consultant PKVerleger LLC, said in a phone interview, “I’m fairly certain we’ll see prices in the $30s this year.”

Well, that is a bearish call, isn`t it?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Buying Some Natural Gas Small Caps: Teton Energy, Royale Energy and Delta Petroleum

I share Jim Rogers and Marc Faber`s opinion that Natural Gas is making a major long term bottom. While I bought Natural Gas at the day of the low and I was able to ride it higher for a several percent up move I think the real money will be made on some small natural gas names like Teton Energy Corp. (TEC), Royale Energy Inc. (ROYL) and today`s laggard Delta Petroleum (DPTR).

I am taking advantage of today`s major sell off on Delta Petroleum (DPTR) to begin adding to that stock. My reasoning is that these stocks will greatly benefit from the rise in Natural Gas prices and will post much better then expected earnings for the next few quarters. But this is not a speculation, its more of an investment on the outlook for smaller companies in the Natural Gas space. As the long timers in this blog know, this is a Jim Rogers style type of trade.

Delta is off by 44% because one of its natural gas fields is not viable. I bought the stock on today`s weakness and I will add some more if the opportunity presents itself. Check the 10 year price graphs of these 3 stocks and notice the spikes that they have from time to time. As Jim Rogers says, this is a typical "buy low and sell high" opportunity.

As always we open the discussion to other small caps stocks on the natural gas space that may benefit from a reversal in gas prices. Leave your suggestions and analysis on the comments section. Have a good trading day.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Bill Gross: "Stocks Are Due For A Retreat"

Bill Gross was interviewed live on CNBC a few minutes ago and he said that he is pretty bearish on the stock market:

"Stocks have gone too far too fast and are due for a retreat in an economy that will grow slowly", and he added, "We think the market...is due for a pullback or setback only because it's gone so far and economic growth cannot go so far."

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

S&P Is Exhausted. Will It Disregard The Command?

After this huge run up the market is pretty exhausted. Notice that the last two trading sessions were the narrowest in some time. So volatility will expand, perhaps in a dramatic way over the next few trading sessions. I would bet that the most probable move from this point is a violent 2 to 3 day sell off.

I will leave you with one of my favourite quotes from my Bible, "General conditions, my true allies, said "Down!" and Reading (a popular stock from the early 20th century) disregarded the command. It was an insult to us." I always find inspirating when I read Jesse Livermore`s work. I think that all of my best plays in all these years have been right after I re-read Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator. I can always find inspiration there.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Art Cashin: Dollar Rise Will Cause Other Assets To Fall

The US dollar climbed against most major international currencies today, clawing off a one-year low against the euro currency.

Art Cashin, the veteran stock trader commented on the US dollar move and gave us his market insights:

Cashin said the reflex rally in the dollar will cause equities to fall, “Almost all the asset classes have been moving directly in relationship to the dollar,” said Cashin. “You don’t even have to look at the news ticker anymore—you just tell me what the dollar’s doing and I can tell you what stocks, oil and gold are going to do. If the dollar finds a level and begins to reverse, that could cause trouble across many asset classes.”

I will leave you with a slideshow of the best hotels and resorts in the world. Me and my wife will be out of town this weekend as we celebrate our wedding anniversary.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

New ETN To Trade Volatility: Meet The VXX

For those who think that volatility will rise in the near future there is a new ETN to play it. The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) is an exchange traded note, an unsecured debt security issued by Barclays Bank PLC designed to track the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term FuturesTM Index TR, which offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500 at various points along the volatility forward curve.

I think this will be a very popular instrument. The VXX is trading at 50 after hitting an year high around 120 in February. I am still studying this instrument but it may very well be a part of my trading in the near future.

Today I closed my long Nikkei`s for a 150 plus profit, my USDJPY position with an 80 pips gain and I doubled my short on the Dax Futures. I may very well have to retreat on this doubling as I carry a major, major short line. Anyway I placed a stop at 5770 for the position that I`ve added today.

Did you notice the move on the 3 Month Euribor Futures today? Well, after suffering a bit for a few weeks its now beggining to trade my way. I am confident that I can make a killing in this trade.

I will leave you with the best point of this year`s US Open. Roger Federer hits an amazing between the legs shot against Djokovic. Pure briliance.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

What Are The Best Stocks To Short Now?

As the market rallied to such an extreme level there are probably lots of good shoting candidates on the US markets. I think it would be interesting to open a debate here on the best stocks to short right now.

Is the dollar going to recover somewhat and are the mining and basic resources stocks that will give us the best bang for the buck? If this is the case, maybe United States Steel Corporation (X), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), Hecla Mining (HL) and Goldcorp Inc. (GG) are good candidates or even Market Vectors Gold Miners (ETF). Oil stocks could also be an interesting shorting pick, especially the smaller names that have run too far, too fast.

But the market correction can be focused in the financials and in that case I think the best play will be on the ETF, Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) or in some selected names like American Express Company (AXP), Bank OF America (BAC) or some smaller regional banks. Many market analysts have been expressing concerns about the commercial real estate and there are plenty of names to sell short on that space, Boston Properties, Inc. (NYSE:BXP), Simon Property Group, Inc (NYSE:SPG) or the sector ETF, iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF).

For instance, the short seller specialist, Jim Chanos is focusing on shorting healthcare stocks. I don`t think its the most interestign sector to short at the present time.

But the idea of this post is to open the debate on shorting opportunities on the US stock market with the members of this big trading community sharing their shorting picks and the reasons for the their selections. This way we can take advantage of the intellectual capital that we built on this webpage.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Art Cashin: "Market Is Ahead Of Itself". Focusing On Japan.

Art Cashin showed disbelief today when he was asked to comment on the performance of the stock market:

“According to most of the rules that I’ve learned to live with over the several decades, this [market] is ahead of itself, but we’ll let the party continue—I’m just not going to partake in the tainted food,” Cashin told CNBC.

While I was out of my trading desk for most of the day for personal reasons including my beach house deal (yes, finally closed it) and some Enzo related "to do`s", I saw that the markets roared once again. But along with the rally my 3 Month Euribor futures also ticked in my favor as the economic optimism is finally channeling its way through higher euribor rates. I think I have a good position on these contracts. Its almost a non lose situation because 3 month euribor rates can only go up from here.

While the Dax Futures rudely rallied and I got hurt on my short position, I am happy that I paired them yesterday night with some long Nikkei Futures. Lets see if the japanese can follow through on the today`s western strength and make my day a winning one.

I have opened a new position on foreign exchange markets as I am following Goldman Sachs call on the yen that I refered to yesterday:

“If I look at the underlying fundamentals, virtually everything that drove the yen stronger in its floating exchange history isn’t there anymore,” O’Neill said. “The yen doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near this, and I don’t see it lasting.”

I am long on USDJPY at 90.50. Its not a major position but its going my way so far. I will pair it with the Nikkei Futures as I expect the soft yen to be a bullish factor for japanese stocks. Do you know where the Nikkei traded in 1984, 25 years ago? At 10,300. Its been a painful 25 years for japanese stock investors but this recent change of leadership will induce the biggest stock rally that japanese traders have seen in their lifetimes.

I will leave with one of my favourite musics of all time. "Love Will Tear Us Apart" from Joy Division is one of the musics that I hear almost everyday as I surf the web doing my daily research.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Bernanke Says Recession Has Ended. Markets Probably Topped.

Federal Reserve Chairman "Heli" Bernanke said today that the worst U.S. recession since the 1930`s has probably ended, “Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time.”

Wouldn`t it be ironic if the market topped in the day that the Fed Chairman signals the world that the recession is over? Well, I sold the remaining of my shares in Hecla Mining and in Dynegy and I am with a full short line on Dax Futures and with a short 3 Month Euribor Futures. I think the top is in.

The March low was named "The Haines Bottom". I hope that the "junk propaganda" TV Channel will nickname this top the "HMS Top" if I am proven correct. I don`t know if the audience of this website already reaches CNBC Headquarters...


PS: The japanese Prime Minister will be sworn today. This new government is ultra loose on fiscal and monetary policy and I think this new administration will be very bullish for the japanese stock market. The Nikkei`s will probably rally a few thousand points in the next 6 to 12 months. Despite being bearish on the US and European markets I am commiting money to the Nikkei Futures (I have been in and out of this trade a few times now). I feel that the worst thing that can happen is to be under water for some time if the correction really gets under way but the real risk here is to be left out. I wish I have the courage to hold these contracts for a few years. .) As Livermore used to say, "the big money is on the big swing".


Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Goldman Sachs Is Bearish On The Yen

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jim O’Neil says that forex markets have embarked on a “silly September”.

“There is a very popular notion that you’ve got to sell the pound and the dollar because of the rising government debt, whereas the one that everyone’s seemingly buying is the yen,” O’Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in London today. “It’s ridiculous I think of it as ‘silly September.”

“If I look at the underlying fundamentals, virtually everything that drove the yen stronger in its floating exchange history isn’t there anymore,” O’Neill said. “The yen doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near this, and I don’t see it lasting.”

This is a pretty bearish call on the Yen by Goldman Sachs. The future actions of the new elected japanese government may very well damage the yen and benefit japanese stocks. I have been considering buying some Nikkei Futures but I expecting for some kind of correction to get onboard the Japanese Ship.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Crude Oil Futures Still In A Trading Range

Light, sweet crude futures for October delivery closed 0.43, or 0.6%, lower, at 68.86 dollars a barrel on NYMEX.

Traders have settled on roughly $70 a barrel as the appropriate price for oil, which is available in massive quantities today but is expected to become more scarce as the world economy recovers and demand picks up. So when oil prices neared 73 a barrel on Friday, support gave way and futures quickly retreated.

It's a pattern that's repeated on a loop since June: oil prices have fallen sharply soon after approaching 75 dollars a barrel, and usually rally almost immediately after nearing 65 dollars a barrel. Events have largely reinforced the status quo throughout - economic indicators like the U.S. unemployment rate are worsening at a slower rate or beginning to improve, while supplies of oil and fuel remain well above normal.

The tight trading range could persist for some time - the U.S. Department of Energy and other leading forecasters say it could take until the end of 2010, or later, for refiners to burn off the surplus.

"We're not going to use all this oil in the short term," said Phil Flynn, an analyst with PFGBest in Chicago. "It's going to keep a lid on the market."

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) sees a quicker end to the glut, with supplies in the developed world reaching normal levels by the end of the year, potentially pushing oil prices up to 85 a barrel, the bank's London-based analysts wrote in a note to clients.

It was a quiet trading day for me as I only monitored my structural trading positions and did some research through out the day. As you know I am still short Dax and 3 Month Euribor Futures and I still hold some positions on Hecla MIning and on Dynegy that I plan to sell tomorrow. I think its time to fully commit to the short side of the stock market.

I am watching the US Open final on TV as we speak. The match is on the forth set and Del Potro is threatning to send the match to a fifth set.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Will The US - China Trade War Send The Markets Tumbling?

"China said Sunday it would review complaints about U.S. exporters' pricing of chicken and auto products after Washington's move to slap punitive sanctions on Chinese tire imports, raising tensions in a trade dispute ahead of two planned meetings between the countries' leaders." in the Wall Street Journal

Is this the match that will ignite a market correction? I think it is. I am watching the early price action in Asia and markets are looking soft. I am already short Dax Futures and I am considering doubling my position when the market opens later today. Globex S&P Futures are already down 10 points, which is a major move for a Sunday night Globex session.

I think people will be running for cover on Wall Street tomorrow and for the next few trading sessions. The party may very well be over. And those who came late to the party will get a decent hangover.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Art Cashin Says That The Market Resembles The Summer Of 1987

“There’s just some eerie things about this—it’s reminiscent of spring and summer of ‘87 when nobody believed the rally and it kept going up despite skepticism, people shorting into it. It ate them alive until it suddenly turned.” says Art Cashin.

Is this a reminiscences of the 1987 stock market crash? Very interesting words from the veteran trader Art Cashin. He has been wrong all along, being bearish since late March or May but is he regaining his form?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

If A Correction Comes These May Very Well Be The Stocks To Short

For those who are expecting a correction in the stock market and are looking for ways to play it I will leave a few suggestions here. I was reading the BIG website over the weekend I came across an interesting study about the most overbought stocks on the S&P 500.

While American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is the most overbought stock in the S&P 500 at the moment, trading 59% above its 50-day, Eastman Kodak (EK) ranks second at 52.36%, followed by Textron (TXT), Advance Micro Devices (AMD), Hartford Financial (HIG), and Genworth Financial (GNW). I think its not very wise to short low priced stocks like American International Group, Inc. (AIG) and AMD but Eastman Kodak (EK), Textron (TXT), Hartford Financial (HIG) and Genworth Financial (GNW) may very well be good picks.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Time To Short Oil?

Crude oil futures prices ended the session lower on Friday, posting the biggest single-day loss in 2 weeks.

NYMEX October Oil Futures dropped 3.7%, or 2.65 dollars a barrel, to 69.29 a barrel. That was the biggest decline since Aug. 31 and followed four days of gains that pushed prices up by nearly 4 a barrel on the "dollar weakness trade".

"It's the continuing battle between (weak oil supply/demand) fundamentals and economic optimism and there's a lot of uncertainty over which is going to be the strongest performer" in the conflict, said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn.

Officials of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries this week kept oil output restraints in place and said prices around current levels were fair for both producers and consumers. While OPEC leader Saudi Arabia expressed confidence over the coming economic recovery that will lift demand for oil, some analysts voiced concern about oversupply weighing on the market. I think there is an increasing possibilities that the OPEC members will cheat on their quotas oversupplying the market. But the major risk shorting oil is still the "dollar weakness trade" that has been going on.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Trader HMS New Logo

US Markets Have Done Nothing In 8 Years

"Eight years have now passed since 9/11, and the Dow is essentially unchanged since that horrible, sad day. On 9/11/01, the Dow was at 9,605. The index is currently trading just 15 points below that level at 9,590." in Bespoke Investment Group Website

After all the bull and bear markets of all these years the Dow Jones moved less in 8 years then it normally moves in a hour. Remarkable, not?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Longest Streak Since November. Can It Continue?

U.S. stocks gained for a fifth day, the longest streak for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since November. The S&P made a fresh 11 month high and keeps defying gravity. I do not have any trading position on the S&P Futures but I am short Dax Futures and feeling the pain. I am off over 130 points in just 2 trading sessions.

But even more frustrating then that is the behaviour in the Euribor Futures complex. I am losing in that position every single day. Quite amazing. Even though, I have the December and March futures so time is on my side on that trade.

But not everything is going against me, my stock picks are doing very well. Dynegy and Hecla Mining are going through the roof.

After losing a few thousand euros shorting Dax Futures I think its time for the bears to charge the market lower. I am as bearish as I can be and I expect a major correction in the global stock markets in the next few weeks.

I will regroup watching Rafael Nadal at the US Open. He will play against the talented Fernando Gonzalez. It will be a close call.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

It Is Time For A Correction To Emerge?

I think the trading bias will be to the downside today.

On the economic front, initial claims were a little better then expected and the Trade Deficit was lower then antecipated which implies that growth estimates will probably be revised lower. All in all the market is overbought and prone to correct and technically a correction will fit the graphs nicely creating a nice double top on the S&P 500.

Big match on Flushing Meadows last night. Federer needed 2 tie-breaks to defeat the powerful forehand of Robin Soderling. It was a shame that the match didn`t go to a fifth set because Soderling was really rising up to the occasion. Del Potro, Cilic, Nadal and Gonzalez will play the remaining quarter finals today.

Have a nice trading day.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Are Sunoco And Hess Worth Of Our Dollars?

It was a quiet trading day for me today as I closed my short Goldcorp Inc. (GG) position with a nice profit and saw the Euribor Futures reverse and trade my way after a rather tough morning. My Dax Futures are almost 80 points off the money but I expect a correction to unfold in the next few trading days. The S&P 500 has traded up for the last 4 days making any kind of correction very likely.

Today is the six-month anniversary of the S&P 500's closing low in March at 666. Over that time, the S&P 500 has rallied over 50%. During what has been the most powerful rally that most people will see in their lifetimes, there are actually 10 stocks in the S&P 500 that have declined in value. Sunoco, Inc. (SUN) and Hess Corp. (HES) are the two stocks in the energy sector that are part of this black list. Back in his day Jim Rogers used to ask his staff to order the market performance of all stocks to consider which bargains he couls consider buying. Are SUN and HES worth of our hard earned dollars?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Jim Chanos: Short Healthcare Stocks

Hedge fund manager and short-seller Jim Chanos has added more names the list of health care companies he is short-selling. Changes coming to the industry, primarily through the possibility of a national health insurance plan but also because of maximized profit margins, will pressure a variety of companies:

"Our view on the health care sector is that it's facing headwinds whether there's a legislative answer or not," Chanos, told CNBC. "We think from a regulatory point of view as well as a competitive point of view, profit margins are going down."

Jim Chanos' short list includes AstraZeneca plc (ADR), because it faces stiff competition from generic drugs. Chanos has said previously that he was down on some of the health care names, but expanded the list on a belief that profit margins in the sector, which he said is at as much as three-times that of the Standard & Poor's 500, are due to shrink.

Tonight President Obama is set to deliver what could be his final address on health care reform. Chanos said the president has yet to put a concrete plan forward, adding that containing costs should be the top priority.

"Health care valuations are already there and we can't get much bigger," he said. "This system is ... so bloated it's going to start bankrupting all kinds of entities, not just business but the government. So we've got to get costs under control."

Humana Inc. (HUM) and Lincare Holdings Inc. (LNCR) is also on his shortlist.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Oil Futures Post The Biggest Gain Since August 19.

NYMEX crude oil futures prices ended above 71 dollars a barrel today after posting the biggest one day rise since August 19 on a buying spree spurred by weakness in the dollar.

Light, sweet crude oil futures for October settled 3.08 dollars higher at 71.10 a barrel, the highest price since Aug. 28. Nymex prices had dropped 4.72 dollars a barrel, or 6.5% last week.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets Wednesday in Vienna to review oil output policy, but traders said they don't expect surprises. Ali Naimi, oil minister of OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, said the oil market is in "very good shape" and both producer and consumer nations are happy with crude prices between $68 and $73 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs said in a report it expects mountainous U.S. inventories of distillate fuel (diesel fuel/heating oil), at a 28-year high at the end of August, to decline in coming months, improving the supply/demand outlook. The bank repeated its forecast for $85-a-barrel crude oil by year end.

I am still standing path on the oil futures waiting for a big opportunity to emerge. I was caught on the May rally and I have been on the oil sidelines since then.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

A Home Run In Natural Gas. Euribor Futures Are Killing Me.

I closed my trade in the Natural Gas Futures today after being able to buy it at 2.500 last week. It was a very good trade for me and it would be even better if I weren`t suffering in my Euribor 3 Month Futures.

So, I am out of Natural Gas taking advantage of this 15% plus upmove in 2 trading sessions and I am using those profits to add more and more Euribor Futures. I have both December 2009 and March 2010 futures and I expect to make a killing in these contracts. But it seems that there won`t be any gain without pain.

Out of boredom I sold Goldcorp Inc. (USA) GG short as I noticed that if it could not rally on a day where the US dollar was getting whacked then there wasn`t a big risk in shorting it. It paid off as Goldcorp Inc. (USA) GG sold off to the closing bell.

Considering that I also took some profits in Hecla Mining (HL) this turned out to be a pretty active trading session.

On the US Open one of the favourites is already going home. Andy Murray was beaten by the powerful croatian Cilic in 3 sets. I am looking forward to watch the night session at Flushing Meadows where Nadal will face the spectacular frenchman Gael Monfils. I think it will be a very close match.


Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Is The US Dollar Collapsing?

Jim Rogers has been talking about an imminent currency crisis and we may very well be on the brink of a dollar collapse. The US Dollar is losing more then 1% versus the Euro Currency and making multi month lows. The reaction on commodities is being felt with gold and silver skyrocketing and crude oil following suit.

Interestingly enough there is no significant reaction on the bond markets as the government bond futures are trading flat this morning. We will have to see how this develops but there are some very worrysome signals in the markets today.

I bought some Hecla Mining (HL) shares last week and they are bound to perform nicely today alongside the precious metals complex.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

No Labor Day For Me. Active In European Trading

I am trading actively on the european markets and I shorted DAX futures a few minutes ago at 5465. I am also taking advantage of lower 3 Month Euribor Futures to add to my positions and I now have a huge trading commitment on December 2009 and March 2010 "3 Month Euribor Futures". This is the biggest trade I have been in a while and its going violently against me so far.

One of my trailing stops on the Natural Gas futures has been hit at 2.67 but I am happy that I could run it up for such a big profit. That was fast and sweet trading action.

I will leave you today with an amazing live performance of Jose Gonzalez playing "Love Will Tear Us Apart" from Joy Division. Magnificent sound. I hope you enjoy it.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Natural Gas Futures Seasonality. Time To Buy.

This is the Natural Gas Futures seasonal graph that was sent by one the members of this trading community. As you can see this is the best time of the year to be long Natural Gas Futures. The seasonal graph shows us that September and October are the best months for Natural Gas prices increases.

As you know I bought October Natural Gas Futures last week at 2.500, very near the bottom. On friday the natural gas futures spiked higher more then 8% and I had no trouble at all in riding it higher. I am still holding it for higher prices with a stop a little above my entry price to secure a part of my profits no matter what. Anyway I think a major long term bottom in gas prices is already in.

Today I will take the day to watch the US Open. Nadal, Tsonga will be in action today and I am looking forward for the night session where the ressurgent and always spectacular Taylor Dent will meet forces with the brit Andy Murray. I love comebacks and I still remember when Jimmy Connors made a comeback at 42 years old and sent the US Open crowds wild with his fantastic play.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Markets Are Stronger Then I Expected. Natural Gas Is Beginning To Rally.

I have just closed my S&P futures with a loss. Market is trading stronger then I expected.

Natural Gas is surging and I got in at a fantastic price yesterday so I will have no trouble at all riding it higher. Hecla Mining (HL) and Dynegy inc. (DYN) are doing nicely also.

I am also backing away from the dollar. Dollar is weakening again so I will run away with a scratch trade. But this what trading is all about. Like a professional snooker player, a trader has to always be playing for position. Most of the trades will be small losses and small profits and the ones that really count are a few trades per year.

It was a pretty active week and I am needing a rest. Fortunately things went very well for me this week.

I will leave with one of my favourite musics, one that I always listen when I get home and relax. This is a live performance of Bad Day, from REM. Its my favourite song of all time and I love to play it on bad or good days.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Shorting S&P Futures. Buying US Dollars.

On the reaction to the Employment Report I sold some more S&P Futures and I closed the Nikkei`s that I had paired with some S&P`s overnight. All this indecision makes me think that we are at an important crossroad in this market.

I will get back to the Nikkei Futures soon, hopefully after a meaningful correction.

I am turning dollar bullish again and I am testing the market with a small long US Dollar, short Euro currency position.

Natural gas futures are showing some signs of life but is this the real reaction rally?

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Waiting For The Employment Report. Consensus Is -200K On Non Farm Payrolls.

It will be important to read the market`s reaction to the data because I think we will have a major move one way or another. So I have my orders lined up on my trading platform so that i can hit them as soon as I need to.

My commitments are rather heavy so I have to read it right and act fast.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Risk Taking Appetite. Major Commitments In The Market.

My risk appetite is making multi months highs. I couldn`t stand aside the collapse in the Natural Gas Futures and I bought some futures at 2.500. I was looking at a price chart and I am pretty sure that a major rebound is imminent. I had no fear and I bought a few contracts that I plan to carry for a few trading sessions.

I was also looking into some beaten down stocks and I bought a few Hecla Mining (HL) shares. Silver and precious metals in general are trading up big time and I think Hecla Mining (HL) stocks can double in a few months. I also bought some out of fashion Dynegy Inc. (DYN) stocks which I am afraid that I will have to wait a few months to see some real price appreciation. But I read the Fitch downgrade report and I concluded that there is some upside potential to this stock. Besides Dynegy (DYN) was trading at a major support level so I gave it a shot. And while I was looking around the utilities sector I came across Duke Energy (DUK) with a 7% dividend yield so I bought it for income.

Jean Claude Trichet comments were pretty dovish and I suffered on my Euribor Futures. I expected an hawkish statement from the ECB and I got a confused and unclear statement. Anyway the pain will only be temporary as the Euribor rates are trading 20 basis points below the 1% ECB rates. So, I added a few contracts to my short trading positions and I probably got top prices for this move.

Finally the Employment Report will be released tomorrow before the trading bell. I closed my remaning short S&P Futures and I can play the market both sides tomorrow depending on the market reaction to the data.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Buying Natural Gas At 2.5000

I am buying Natural Gas Futures at 2.500. This is the most oversold market I have ever seen and I always get a big bang when I am able to buck such trend.

I am probably betting a bit more then I should but I am expecting a big rebound at any time now. I have to admit that my heart is racing but that is probably a sign that the market is about to reverse.

This futures expires in September 28th and between now and then I should be able to close it with a decent profit.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Bill Gross: Double Dip A Possibility. Buy Long Term Bonds.

The inability of the government to continue pumping stimulus into the economy could promote a double-dip recession that will mean investment opportunities in longer-term government debt, Pimco's Bill Gross said today.

As inflation becomes less a possibility due to the weakening economy, 10-year notes and 30-year bonds could provide solid investment opportunities, Gross said in a live CNBC interview.

Interestingly enough voices like Marc Faber and Jim Rogers have said in recent months that they are going to short long term government bonds because their value will be eroded by the Fed`s money printing activities. But Bill Gross is sharper then the "oldies" and he very well have a good point here.

It was a quiet trading day today. I closed half of my E-Mini S&P Futures shorts in the low 990`s and I am still carrying a decent short line waiting for lower prices. Tomorrow morning the ECB will have its rate decision meeting and Jean Claude Trichet will assess the state of the economy and financial markets on the press conference. I am carrying a too big 3 Month Euribor position as I expect a hawkish stance by the frenchman. I may have to dress to the occasion and take my Armani suit from the closet. The old timers know what I mean.

I have recommended Jose Gonzalez a few times on this website and I will leave you with a live performance video of "Down The Line". Its my favourite song.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Markets Are Red. Good For My Red Ship.

The API said yesterday that crude supplies dropped 3.19 million barrels last week. A U.S. government report today at 10.30 AM ET may also show stockpiles declined. Oil’s gains were supported as Australia said economic growth unexpectedly accelerated in the second quarter.

NYMEX oil has traded between 65 and 75 dollars a barrel since July 31.

I am still holding to my short S&P Futures and I am expecting lower prices at the open. E-mini S&P Futures are trading at 993 on Globex so we are set for a decent down gap on the opening bell. I am glad I got out of my Nikkei Futures as they plunged nearly 300 points overnight. But I am keeping my eye on those as a nice long term buying opportunity may develop in Japan due to the result of the recent elections (watch and read the most recent Marc Faber comments on Japan).

The action on the US Open continues today. As you know I am a great tennis fan and I am looking forward to watch Roger Federer, Nadal and Marat Safin at Flushing Meadows.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Correction Is Under Way. We Are On FED Alert.

I have seen this before. Markets are beginning to sell off worried that the easy monetary policy is coming to an end sooner then expected.

I am carrying a bigger short line having added some shorts at 1022 and 1019. I have a first target at 1000 but I think we are going a lot lower then that.

Financials like Citigroup Inc.(Public, NYSE:C) and Wells Fargo & Company (Public, NYSE:WFC) are leading on the way down today.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.

Very Active On The S&P Futures.

Very important economic data points are coming out later today:

- ISM Manufacturing, 50.5 is expected;
- Construction Spending, 0.0% is expected;
- Pending Home Sales, no estimate available

I am closing my short line at 1015 and waiting for the data to decide what to do next. Economic data has been stronger then consensus in general but the market reaction has been rather soft. I am leaning to the short side but I will watch these data points from the balcony.

I was awake all night watching the Nikkei`s and trading forex. I am needing a rest. It already looks thursday or friday to me. This forex system is doing so well that I am trading it day and night. I am going to pay for this sooner or later...

You can check all economic data at econoday.com. This is the site is normally use. Have a nice trading day.

Oil Trader`s Blog is a website for active online futures and stock traders. I will provide my real time trading decisions and my market thoughts on this webpage.